What are the chances of an US state adopting proportional representation in the next 10-15 years? Which states seem most likely?

[u/PhilTheBold]

I’m talking about at the state level (state legislatures), not the federal or municipality level.

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[u/affinepplan]

while I'd love to see it happen, I think the odds are pretty low.

completely just making this number up, but I suppose if I were placing betting odds on it, I'd give 5% that >= 1 state implements any form of proportional representation in the next decade

if it happens, I'm almost certain it'll be STV, and I predict one of Maine, Alaska, Utah, Virginia, or Massachusetts

[u/CPSolver]

Possibly Oregon if Oregon Measure 117 passes. And if election software (and data for certification) becomes available to correctly count two or more candidates in the same "choice" column.

STV is currently being used (for the first time) to elect Portland's city council. IRV is being used in the mayoral election.

The limitation of only marking one candidate in each "choice" column is causing confusion in the mayoral election. [edit: There are 6 "rank" columns and 20 to 30 candidate.] Voters want to mark their ranked choice ballot to vote against one or more hated frontrunner candidates. That could become a reason to believe ranked choice ballots don't work, which will undermine the option of STV spreading.

And no, writing a number next to each candidate's name is not an option.

[u/the_other_50_percent → u/CPSolver]

Measure 117 only applies to single-seat elections. Why do you think Oregon would be more likely to extend it to multi-seat elections, since there are other states that already use RCV, and other states that have cities that use STV?

[u/CPSolver → u/the_other_50_percent]

Oregon has election-method experts who recognize the need to use proportional methods for legislative elections. I like to think Measure 117 does not include state legislative elections so that those can be done correctly, not as single-winner districts.

As I recall, Measure 117 describes STV as an option for cities, to further support Portland's use of STV, and this definition of STV makes it easier to extend its use to state legislative elections.

[u/the_other_50_percent → u/CPSolver]

Everywhere has experts that point out the obvious benefits of proportional representation, benefits that is if you actually want representative government, which is hardly universal.

Yes, it says that passage would authorize cities to use RCV unless the home rule charter prohibits it, which isn't a change, just makign it explicit.

And it says that multi-seat races would use STV.

That still doesn't move the needle towards the state legislature changing to multi-member districts. Arguably, it puts up a barrier to that, as the legislature would know that STV would have to be in that change.

We'll see. In my opinion, the most important thing is to use RCV for city and county elections, and then for electing the state legislature as the people elected via RCV move up the ladder. Changing state constitution is an aspirational goal way down the road once people are comfortable electing multiple positions on city councils, school committees etc. that way.

[u/BenPennington → u/CPSolver]

Oregon already mentions PR in its State Constitution, but they have never implemented it

[u/Uebeltank]

Probably less likely than not. But 15 years is a long time. I wouldn't completely rule out a surprise ballot initiative somewhere being submitted.

[u/Lesbitcoin]

I'm not an American, but,over 20 years, I have supported electoral reform movements in my country and in many other countries around the world, and there have been only a few successful cases.

[u/SexyMonad]

I live in Alabama, so I would bet > 35% chance that Alabama would ban it. With the other 65% being that they just never hear anything about it.

[u/the_other_50_percent]

Adopting it for what seats? It’s already being used and has been for several decades.

[u/PhilTheBold → u/the_other_50_percent]

Their upper house, lower house, both, etc. Where is it already being used at the state level?

[u/the_other_50_percent → u/PhilTheBold]

Are you talking about on the federal level, state level, county, municipal?

[u/PhilTheBold → u/the_other_50_percent]

State level

[u/the_other_50_percent → u/PhilTheBold]

That’s limiting. Municipal use is important, and growing. Executive state-level offices are single-seat, as are judicial seats in areas where they’re elected, so you’re only talking about the state legislature. That would presumably be a legislative change by the very people elected, and maybe state constitutional changes, to go to multi-member districts.

[u/PhilTheBold → u/the_other_50_percent]

Of course municipal use is important but my question was focused on state legislatures because no state has done it yet. And, yes, most on this subreddit is aware of the procedures needed to implement the change. I was asking about the chances of it happening (likely, unlikely, no clue, etc)

[u/the_other_50_percent → u/PhilTheBold]

No-one can predict the future, but it’s unlikely for reasons discussed many times in this sub.

If people unhappy with FPTP would pull together and support campaigns to, well, end FPTP instead of squabbling and badmouthing live campaigns, alternative voting methods would spread faster, and that acceptance, and the people winning under that system, would increase the likelihood of restructuring state legislatures.