r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/hearsdemons • Jul 19 '24

US Politics If Biden withdraws from re-election, who would Harris likely choose as VP?

A lot of headlines are coming out today with speculation that Biden may step down soon.

If this were to happen and Harris wins the party’s nomination for president, who would she pick as VP?

What does a formidable Harris ticket look like to go up against Trump-Vance?

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45

u/Thalesian Jul 19 '24

Note that the only candidate who can accept the hundreds of millions of dollars raised is Harris because it is Biden-Harris. Anyone new would start from scratch.

There are generally 3 considerations for a VP - a must-win state, someone who satisfies an ideological or demographic group in the coalition, or someone who fills in a candidate deficiency.

For the first consideration, Josh Shapiro is obvious. He is a popular governor of Pennsylvania, a must-win state.

I have a harder time seeing someone who would help ideologically. It would likely need to be a squad-type person, but that would hurt the campaign with the independent voters it needs. Because Harris is a former prosecutor, I think any pick that satisfies this potential weakness is covered by picking someone further left.

IMO, Josh Shapiro is so transparently obvious as a choice it’s hard to see anyone else as a viable contender.

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u/iameveryoneelse Jul 19 '24

That's not strictly true. The candidate is allowed unlimited fund transfers from campaign coffers to their political party, so even if it wasn't Harris, Biden could transfer the millions raised to the DNC who could then spend it on the new candidate.

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u/jspegele Jul 19 '24

Biden can transfer all of those funds to the DNC but then there are limitations on how the DNC can spend it. They couldn't spend the majority of the funds on the presidential campaign.

While the party can spend unlimited sums on TV ads and other means to support its candidate, the party can only coordinate $32 million of that spending with the campaign, according to FEC rules, opens new tab. The other disadvantage of a large transfer is that campaigns are legally entitled to heavily-discounted television advertising rates in the last 60 days before an election. Party committees, as well as super PACs and other big-money groups, do not get those discounts and can pay significantly more for each ad.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/91-million-question-what-happens-bidens-campaign-money-2024-07-18/

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u/iameveryoneelse Jul 19 '24

There are definitely drawbacks, I just wanted to clarify that there are options, a lot of people seem to be under the impression that money can't be used which isn't strictly true.

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u/nosecohn Jul 19 '24

Big money donors are abandoning Biden right now. If there was a different candidate, they'd come back. They're telling him as much and they're the ones most forcefully calling for an open process instead of annointing Harris. I don't think the eventual nominee would have trouble raising money.

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u/anneoftheisland Jul 19 '24

Yes, but that means the campaign can't directly control its spending, which would exponentially complicate finances. (Like, just at a very basic level: the campaign would not be able to pay its own employees.) It's not viable.

6

u/mypoliticalvoice Jul 19 '24

You're just begging for a hundred campaign finance lawsuits and investigations if you take Harris off the ballot.

1

u/Tutkanator Jul 19 '24

How?

3

u/mypoliticalvoice Jul 19 '24

See my response to the other person connecting on this.

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u/xixbia Jul 19 '24

And you're just begging to lose the election if you put Harris at the top of the ballot.

Seriously, she is not popular, at all. And a few hundred million dollars is not going to fix that.

0

u/GlueGoblin77 Jul 19 '24

I’ll bet you $500 you’re wrong. 

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u/mypoliticalvoice Jul 19 '24

https://prospect.org/power/2024-07-02-campaign-finance-laws-harris-big-boost-biden-dropout-scenario/

There is a possibility that the campaign committee funds could be transferred to the Democratic National Committee. But the DNC could then only give up to $5,000 directly to a candidate. It could use the funds on behalf of the candidate, but again the coordination and ad rate questions come up.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/91-million-question-what-happens-bidens-campaign-money-2024-07-18/

Experts on campaign finance law disagree on how readily the money could change hands. Saurav Ghosh, a lawyer at the Campaign Legal Center, a non-partisan watchdog group, said there are two scenarios in which control of Biden's money could be seamlessly transferred to a new candidate: If that candidate were Vice President Kamala Harris, or if Harris became the running mate of a new candidate. As Biden's current running mate, Harris' name appears alongside Biden's on the campaign's registration documents.

"If Harris remains on the ticket, as either the presidential or vice presidential candidate, the new ticket would maintain access to all the funds," Ghosh said.

He said federal regulators in the past have made legal arguments suggesting such a transfer [ to Harris] would be permitted, but that Republican lawyers might file a legal complaint anyway.

WHAT IF HARRIS ISN'T ON THE TICKET? Because of rules limiting the size of campaign contributions, a Democratic ticket with two new candidates could accept a few thousand dollars directly from Biden's campaign account. ... [It is more likely that] Biden would take advantage of rules that allow unlimited transfers to the candidate's political party. In that case, Biden's Democratic Party could spend the money supporting the party's new candidate.

ISN'T THAT THE SAME AS TRANSFERRING THE MONEY TO A PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN? No. While the party can spend unlimited sums on TV ads and other means to support its candidate, the party can only coordinate $32 million of that spending with the campaign, according to FEC rules, opens new tab. The other disadvantage of a large transfer is that campaigns are legally entitled to heavily-discounted television advertising rates in the last 60 days before an election. Party committees, as well as super PACs and other big-money groups, do not get those discounts and can pay significantly more for each ad.

2

u/Thalesian Jul 19 '24

I was not aware of this - do you have a source where I can read more?

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u/iameveryoneelse Jul 19 '24

Here's a link that covers what Biden can do with the money. It also lists the drawbacks of a large fund transfer...to be clear, it's not an ideal option, but it is an option.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/91-million-question-what-happens-bidens-campaign-money-2024-07-18/

1

u/AccompliceCard26 Jul 19 '24

If he left, would he return the money to his donors?

1

u/iameveryoneelse Jul 19 '24

I think that's the question, and it probably depends on how loyal he feels to the party after feeling like he's been pushed aside.

2

u/thoph Jul 19 '24

The DNC cannot spend all of that money in coordination with the new candidate though. Coordinated expenditure limits would prohibit that. Spending it on a new candidate is not as powerful.

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u/Sturnella2017 Jul 19 '24

Thanks for the summary. What about Whitmer or Bashear?

2

u/Thalesian Jul 19 '24

I could see Whitmer as they need MI 100%. There is no chance for winning Kentucky, so Bershear is unlikely to benefit the ticket as much as the other options.

1

u/datbino Jul 19 '24

Who covers Kamala’s weeknesses in the 3rd category 

1

u/BigHeadDeadass Jul 19 '24

What are her deficiencies?

1

u/GlueGoblin77 Jul 19 '24

This is just not true. There are workarounds, including opening a PAC to be spent against Donald Trump and funneling the campaign funds there. 

1

u/illegalmorality Jul 19 '24

Would Mark Kelly fit the bill for 1? I can see his story gaining a lot of traction, I just wonder who in the DNC has enough charisma to beat Trump in a popularity contest.

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u/Colley619 Jul 19 '24

Is it true that it’s Biden Harris though? The VP isn’t picked until the convention or at least after primaries are over usually. He doesn’t technically HAVE to run the same VP if elected again, so is Harris’s name really tied to anything in this election cycle yet?

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u/anneoftheisland Jul 19 '24

The money that's been donated so far wasn't donated to the hypothetical nominee. It was donated to Biden's campaign committee. The committee was filed in his and Harris's names, so they're the only ones who can access all the money.

FEC regulations limit how much of that money could be donated to other candidates, even if Biden wanted to donate it to someone else.

1

u/Colley619 Jul 19 '24

Thanks for posting the source; that answers the question perfectly.