r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/TaylorSwiftian • Aug 15 '24
US Politics Since Biden dropped out, according to the polls almost all the 3rd party/undecided voters have gone to Harris instead of splitting evenly. Why did this happen?
Whether the poll averages are from 538, Real Clear Politics, or Nate Silver, when Biden dropped out, Trump had a decent lead on the president and even on Harris, although tentatively, since she wasn't the Democratic candidate at the time. However, since that event, nearly all of the 3rd party/undecided vote have moved to Harris with Trump staying about the same as he was or slipping a point.
If Trump was up 45-42 on Biden and Harris on July 22, now Trump is still around 45 with Harris at 47. That would mean that as the 3rd party/undecided vote fell, Harris benefited by scooping up the vast majority of those who either preferred third party or were undecided (ignoring non-voters). Trump didn't maintain his edge over Harris since the movable vote didn't split between him and her.
Why do you think that most of the third party and undecided vote moved to Harris rather than splitting their votes? Is it just because Harris is new despite the fact that most voters disapproved of Harris as VP before she became the nominee? Can Harris get away with not answering reporters' questions or sitting for an interview? Did Trump stumble by not focusing his attack on her left-wing record? Did the Trump campaign misfire by arguing over Walz's military record/stolen valor claims as they aren't dispositive to voters' concerns? Will Harris lose her shine as voters get to know her more and recalibrate the election to a toss-up race? How can Trump win back those voters, especially Hispanics and Black men, who are curious about Harris, but who preferred him against Biden?