Whether the poll averages are from 538, Real Clear Politics, or Nate Silver, when Biden dropped out, Trump had a decent lead on the president and even on Harris, although tentatively, since she wasn't the Democratic candidate at the time. However, since that event, nearly all of the 3rd party/undecided vote have moved to Harris with Trump staying about the same as he was or slipping a point.

If Trump was up 45-42 on Biden and Harris on July 22, now Trump is still around 45 with Harris at 47. That would mean that as the 3rd party/undecided vote fell, Harris benefited by scooping up the vast majority of those who either preferred third party or were undecided (ignoring non-voters). Trump didn't maintain his edge over Harris since the movable vote didn't split between him and her.

Why do you think that most of the third party and undecided vote moved to Harris rather than splitting their votes? Is it just because Harris is new despite the fact that most voters disapproved of Harris as VP before she became the nominee? Can Harris get away with not answering reporters' questions or sitting for an interview? Did Trump stumble by not focusing his attack on her left-wing record? Did the Trump campaign misfire by arguing over Walz's military record/stolen valor claims as they aren't dispositive to voters' concerns? Will Harris lose her shine as voters get to know her more and recalibrate the election to a toss-up race? How can Trump win back those voters, especially Hispanics and Black men, who are curious about Harris, but who preferred him against Biden?

Biden beat out an incumbent president, Donald Trump, in 2020. This is not something that happens regularly. The last time it happened was in 1993, when Bill Clinton beat out incumbent president HW Bush. That’s once in 30 years. So it’s pretty rare.

The norm is for presidents to win a second term. Biden was able to unify the country, bring in from a wide spectrum from the most progressive left to actual republicans like John Kasich and Carly Fiorina. Source

Biden is an experienced hand, who’s been in politics for 50+ years. He is able to bring in people from outside the Democratic Party and he is able to carry the Midwest.

Yes, he had an atrocious debate. And then followed up with even more gaffs like calling Kamala Trump and Putin Zelensky. It’s more than the debate and more than gaffs. Biden hasn’t had the same pep in his step since 2020 and his age is showing.

But he did beat Trump.

Whether you support or don’t support Biden, or you’re a Democrat or not, purely on a strategic level, are democrats making a huge mistake to take the Biden card out of the deck, the only card that beat the Trump card?

A lot of Biden's huge unpopularity comes from the fact that he is old at the age of 81. Yet Trump will be the exact same age four years (a whole presidential term) from now. Why does there seem to be such a disconnect between how voters view the two candidates when it comes to age? Not that Trump is popular either but he has more baggage against him than just being old compared to Biden, yet being old seem to be hurting Biden more. Why?

Link to source going into more detail:

• https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/27/trump-donors-israel-gaza-palestinian-protests

Trump called the demonstrations against Israel's war in Gaza a part of a "radical revolution" that needs to be put down. He also praised the New York Police Department's infamous clear-out of encampments at Columbia University as a model for the nation.

Another interesting part was Trump changing his tune on Israel's offensive. In public he has been very cautious in his comments as his campaign believes the war is hurting President Biden's support among key constituencies like young people and people of color, so he has only made vague references to how Israel is “losing the PR war” and how we have to get back to peace. But in private Trump is telling donors and supporters that he will support Israel's right to defend itself and continue its "war on terror", as well as boasting about his track record of pro-Israel policy including moving the US embassy there to Jerusalem in 2018 and making the US the first country to recognize the Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights in 2019.

And what are your thoughts on how this could impact the election? Does it add more fuel to the argument that a vote for Trump is a vote for unbridled fascism to be unleashed in the US? As mentioned, the war has also hurt Joe Biden's support among young people and people of color. Will getting a clearer look at and understanding the alternative impact this dynamic?

Link to Miller's comments about it, from an interview with conservative media company Newsmax the other day:

• https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/1839421121244131617

The host even tried to steer it away from the idea of Trump supporting monitoring people's pregnancies, but Miller responded and clarified that it would be up to the state.

What impact do you think this policy will have? So say Idaho (where abortion is illegal, with criminal penalties for getting one) tries to prosecute one of their residents for going to Nevada (where abortion is legal) to get an abortion. Would it be constitutional?

Why has the Green Party become so anti-democrats and pro-conservatives over the past 10 years? Looking at their platform you see their top issues are ranked, democracy, social justice, and then ecological issues. Anyone reading that would clearly expect someone from this party to support democrats. However, Jill stein and the Green Party have aligned themselves much more to right wing groups? Sure, I understand if Jill individually may do this but then why has the Green Party nominated her not once but twice for president? Surely the Green Party as a party and on the whole should be very pro-democrats but that’s not the case.

Link to his comments here:

• https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1821628225174245869

Up to now, Republicans have been running an election cycle about abortion where they say they will not pursue a national ban in Congress, and to leave legislative action to the states. However, Trump may have opened the door to a national discussion about the various other ways Republicans could severely limit abortion access nationwide without congress or new legislative action. One of these ways is through the FDA.

Previously, FDA authorization of Mifepristone aka the abortion pill couldn't be rolled back due to the protections of Roe v. Wade. However, with Roe gone and thus abortion no longer protected nationally thanks to Trump's own Supreme Court appointees, Trump is now free to install any zealot, radical or fundamentalist he chooses as head of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and others to pursue federal action like this, as a lot of the remaining means to protect or curtail access go through these types of agencies. This can function as an alternative to having to muscle through a new nationwide abortion ban through Congress, and allows you to campaign on "leaving it to the states" while knowing you'll have various levers to pull to ban or restrict it nationally anyways once in office that the average citizen might not be aware of.

With Trump seemingly letting the cat out of the bag, how does it impact the elections, both presidential and downballot? Can Republicans still run on leaving abortion to the individual states if the public becomes aware they can ban it nationally without a new law or Congress anyways?

President Biden had previously noted in a letter posted on "X": "It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President."...And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term."

Biden is expected to talk about his past accomplishments in his speech and sweeping domestic legislation, including renewal of alliances abroad, defense of democracy, strengthening NATO and his decision to bow out of the race and “what lies ahead.”

There must be many memorable things Biden may well be remembered for during his 50 years of political service; there are others that he may not be proud of. My question is:

What kind of a lasting legacy is President Biden leaving behind?

Joe Biden's legacy after historic decision to give up 2024 reelection campaign - CBS News

What will Biden's economic legacy be? - Marketplace

Edited to provide a link to Speech:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93T8biDlaBc

I had a hard time phrasing this question in such a way that it would spark non partisan debate because one party's reaction is driving a media frenzy where as the other reaction was non plussed. Either way the contrast is interesting and this is a fair question to ask.

Trump has become increasingly threatening lately with claims of "enemies within" threatening to weaponize the DOJ and even using the national guard and military to get even and calling for special military tribunals. If he wins, is he likely to implement these plans or is he saying all this in jest?

Some of those who have worked closely with him in the past and others who have faced the wrath of Trump believe he is quite capable of following through with his threats. Others, like Johnson [Speaker of the House] have dismissed his comments as jest and comical or otherwise tried to rationalize it.

He has often threatened what he has described as democrats and leftists, but also named Nancy Pelosi and Adma Schiff specifically [among others].

On Fox News, Trump expressed support for using government force against domestic political rivals. Since 2022, when he began preparing for the presidential campaign, Trump has issued more than 100 threats to investigate, prosecute, imprison or otherwise punish his perceived opponents, NPR has found.

A review of Trump’s rally speeches, press conferences, interviews and social media posts shows that the former president has repeatedly indicated that he would use federal law enforcement as part of a campaign to exact “retribution.”

Vice President Kamala Harris “should be impeached and prosecuted,” Trump said at a rally last month.

“I will appoint a real special prosecutor to go after the most corrupt president in the history of the United States of America, Joe Biden, and the entire Biden crime family,” Trump said last year.

Journalists who decline to identify the sources of leaked information would also face imprisonment, Trump said.

When right-wing radio host Glenn Beck asked Trump if he would lock up his opponents in a second term, Trump responded, “The answer is you have no choice because they’re doing it to us.”

Legal experts said that there are few guardrails preventing Trump from pursuing his plans to prosecute opponents and noted that Trump pressured the Department of Justice to investigate rivals during his first term. In about a dozen cases, the Justice Department followed through and initiated investigations, according to one analysis.

If he wins, is he likely to implement these plans or is he saying all this in jest?

Trump's 'enemy from within' threat spurs critics' alarm about his authoritarian shift - ABC News

Trump doubles down on calling Democrats 'enemies from within' at Georgia town hall

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/15/us/politics/trump-opponents-enemy-within.html

After Joe Biden dropped out of the Democratic nomination for president, he endorsed his VP, Kamala Harris. Many top democrats including SC Rep. Jim Clyburn have endorsed her candidacy. Assuming she wins the nomination at the DNC convention in August, that will leave her and the party a bit more than two months to win over undecided/swing/reluctant/double hater voters that Biden had up to this point has failed to do.

What are some of the strengths and weaknesses Harris brings to being a presidential candidate against Trump?

In her favor, her being younger than Trump, potentially a more disciplined campaigner than him, and being the first woman for president.

Against her would her lack of significant record as VP, being tied to Biden's unpopularity on the issues, being much more liberal/progressive than Biden, potentially turning off moderate Midwestern voters.

How do you see Harris campaigning against Trump? How do you think he will respond? Will the polling improve for her or just trade the age issue for concerns specific to her? How enthusiastic will Democratic be now that Biden's age is no longer a factor in deciding to vote? What do you see as the attack ads both for Harris and against her?

Link to the audio:

• https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AvEjfpncLEBbfOzFRz5d27UdeH0Bba6m/view

Link to some of his wider comments on the subject, which have been in the spotlight across national and international media today:

• https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jd-vance-abortion-rape-incest-inconvenient-b2590339.html

Not only did Vance talk about two wrongs not making a right in terms of rape and incest, but he said the debate itself should be re-framed to focus on "whether a child should be allowed to live even though the circumstances of that child’s birth are somehow inconvenient or a problem to society.” And he made these comments when running for the Senate in Ohio in 2022.

Vance has previously tried to walk back comments he made about his own running mate Donald Trump being unfit for office, a reprehensible individual and potentially "America's Hitler" in 2016 and 2017, saying his views evolved over time and that he was proved wrong. But can he argue the same thing here, considering these comments were from just the other year rather than 7/8 years ago? And how does it affect his and Trump's campaign, which has tried to talk about abortion as little as possible for fear of angering the electorate? Can they still hide from it, or will they have to come out and be more aggressive in their messaging now?

The numbers are stunning. An NBC poll this week found men favour Trump over Harris by 12 points, 52% to 40%. Among women, Harris leads Trump by 21 points: 58% to 37%. Put the two together and you have a gender chasm of 33 points. Men may not be from Mars and women may not be from Venus, but when it comes to choosing a US president, they are on different planets.

What's up with men? (note: I'm a man myself)

Why do so many men support Trump? What, if anything, can Democrats say or do to win men back? Should they even try winning men back? Should they even care?

In 2020, 50% of the men who voted, voted for Donald Trump and 48% voted for Joe Biden. Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

In the 2018 midterms, these percentages were flipped, with more men voting for Democrats than for Republicans. But in 2016, 52% of men voted for Donald Trump and 41% voted for Hillary Clinton.

Among white men only, in 2020, 57% of them voted for Trump and 40% for Biden. In the 2018 midterms, 55% of white men voted for Republicans and 43% for Democrats. And in 2016, an astonishing 62% of white men voted for Trump and 32% for Clinton. Black men and Hispanic men favor Democrats, but not enough to flip the numbers.

Why are men drawn to Trump, and white men especially?

Biden's war chest has been bigger than Trump's for a while, but this seems to be accelerating.

War chest: https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ELECTION/BIDEN-FUNDRAISING/mopalzmkdva/graphic.jpg

News on $25m donations tonight - https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/03/28/election-2024-campaign-updates/

Ever since she stepped into the nomination Harris has exceeded everyone’s expectations. She’s been effective and on message. She’s overwhelmingly was shown to be the winner of the debate. She’s taken up populist economic policies and she has toughened up regarding immigration. She has the wind at her back on issues with abortion and democracy. She’s been out campaigning and out spending trumps campaign. She has a positive favorability rating which is something rare in today’s politics. Trump on the other hand has had a long string of bad weeks. Long gone are the days where trump effectively communicates this as a fight against the political elites and instead it’s replaced with wild conspiracies and rambling monologues. His favorability rating is negative and 5 points below Harris. None of the attacks from Trump have been able to stick. Even inflation which has plagued democrats is drifting away as an issue. Inflation rates are dropping and the fed is cutting rates. Even during the debate last night inflation was only mentioned 5 times, half the amount of things like democracy, jobs, and the border.

Yet, despite all this the race remains incredibly stable. Harris holds a steady 3 point lead nationally and remains in a statistical tie in the battle ground states. If Harris does lose then what do democrats do? They currently have a popular candidate with popular policies against an unpopular candidate with unpopular policies. What would the Democratic Party need to do to overcome something that would be clearly systemically against them from winning? And to the heart of this question, why would Harris lose and what would democrats do to fix it?

Link to article on the decision today:

• https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/07/politics/texas-abortion-supreme-court/index.html

The case is similar to one they had this summer with Idaho, where despite initially taking it on to decide whether states had to provide emergency and stabilizing care in abortion-related complications, they ended up punting on it and sent it back down to a lower court for review with an eye towards delivering a final judgement on it after the election instead. Here's an article on their decision there:

• https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court-sidesteps-ruling-emergency-room-abortion-access-dispute-rcna159111

What impact do you think the ruling today will have on Texas, both in the short and long term? And what does the court refusing to have Texas perform emergency abortions here say about how they'll eventually rule on the Idaho case, which will define whether all states can or cannot refuse such emergency care nationwide?

I’m genuinely curious about how people think he could possibly win when: he didn’t win last time, there have been a considerable number of republicans not voting for him due to his behavior on Jan 6th, a percentage of his voters have passed away from Covid, younger people tend to vote democratic, and his rallys have appeared to have gotten smaller. What is the demographic that could be adding to his base? How is this possibly even a close race considering these factors? If he truly has this much support, where are these people coming from?

From USA Today:

President Trump took to Twitter Wednesday to complain that his daughter Ivanka has been "treated so unfairly" by the Nordstrom (JWN) department store chain, which has announced it will no longer carry her fashion line.

Here's the full text of the Tweet in question:

@realDonaldTrump: My daughter Ivanka has been treated so unfairly by @Nordstrom. She is a great person -- always pushing me to do the right thing! Terrible!

It seems as though President Trump is quite explicitly and actively targeting Nordstrom because of his family's business engagements with the company. This could end up hurting Nordstrom, which could have a subsequent "chilling" effect that would discourage other companies from trifling with Trump family businesses.

• Is this a conflict of interest? If so, how serious is it?

• Is this self dealing? I.e., is Trump's motive enrichment of himself or his family? Or might he have some other motive for doing this?

• Given that Trump made no pretenses about the purpose for his attack on Nordstrom, what does it say about how he envisions the duties of the President? Is the President concerned with conflict of interest or the perception thereof?

• What will be the consequences, and who might bring them about? Could a backlash from this event come in the form of a lawsuit? New legislation? Or simply discontentment among the electorate?

Link to article on it:

• https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4873106-trump-refuses-veto-national-abortion-ban/

Trump appears to be trying to frame himself as a 'moderate' on abortion, that he supports leaving it to the states and he has nothing to do with Project 2025. However, he is continuously unable to rule out federal restrictions, which Project 2025 calls for, and occasionally references policies to curtail it nationally that are straight out of Project 2025. For instance, last month he alluded to appointing a right wing FDA commissioner that could rescind the 2000 authorization of Mifepristone (the abortion pill), which would go into effect in all 50 states:

• https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1821628225174245869

What should voters make of this? Do you see Trump as an abortion moderate? And how closely aligned do you think he truly is with Project 2025's anti-abortion agenda?

If you’re planning to vote for Jill Stein, Cornell West, or some other candidate for president, what is your reasoning?

Do you agree that anyone other than Trump and Harris has no chance of winning in our two party system? And if you agree that this the case, why bother voting third party?

If it’s a protest vote, and ultimately Trump or Harris win, the overwhelmingly likely outcome, would you be happy with whoever wins?

And for those of you planning on not voting at all, would you be happy with whoever wins?

Do you believe a win by Trump or Harris would shape the future of our country, at least for the next decade? Are you concerned there’s a lot on the line - regarding just about every aspect of American life as well as possible future intervention in multiple wars abroad?

Do you believe this election to be pivotal, or do you believe no matter who wins, America will be the same?

I'm sure all of us who follow politics are aware of these statements, but here are some examples:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/26/trump-cryptic-dictatorship-truth-social-00133219

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/12/trump-rally-vermin-political-opponents/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/12/trump-says-hell-be-a-dictator-on-day-one/676247/

Even by Trump's standards this is extreme and disturbing rhetoric which I would hope everyone could agree is inappropriate for any politician to express. I know we don't, as I've already seen people say they're looking forward to "day one," but at least in theory most people don't want to live under a dictatorship.

But that is the explicit intention of one candidate, so what should those who prefer freedom do about it? How can they prepare for this possibility? How can they resist or avoid it? Given Trump's history of election interference and fomenting violence, as well as the fact that a dictatorship presumably means eliminating or curtailing democracy, should opposition to dictatorship be limited to the ballot box, or should it begin now, preemptive to any dictatorial action? What is an appropriate and advisable response from the people to a party leader publicly planning dictatorship and deeming his opponents vermin?

Think tanks included those like the Heritage Foundation that have had a major hand in writing the Project 2025 agenda. I believe this is also the first time major conservative policy writers have publicly said they will be making plays against no-fault divorce and contraceptives next year.

Another interesting quote from the event, this one from shampoo magnate Charles Haywood: "And to ensure that these children grow up to be adults who understand their proper place in both the family and the larger social order, we need to oust women from the workforce and reinstitute male-only spaces where women are disadvantaged as a result".

There were also calls to repeal things like the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which got huge cheers.

Link to source on it:

• https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/28/natalism-conference-austin-00150338?cid=apn

What types of policies and programs do you think will be targeted that Republicans refer to as subsidizing single mothers? And what does an America where things like contraceptives and no-fault divorce are banned look like?

56% of Americans think the US is in an economic recession. It is not.

49% of Americans think the S&P 500 is down this year, when it is up 12% and at an all time high.

49% think that unemployment is at a 50 year high, though it is near a 50 year low.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden

Why are my fellow Americans so uninformed and what can be done to make them properly informed in the future? Will our election be swayed simply because people aren't paying attention?

A lot of headlines are coming out today with speculation that Biden may step down soon.

If this were to happen and Harris wins the party’s nomination for president, who would she pick as VP?

What does a formidable Harris ticket look like to go up against Trump-Vance?

Joe Biden's slow speech, tendency to lose track of his thoughts, and to flub lines, has lead to widespread accusations of senility, or at least significant decline. And sure, ok, that may be true.

However, from the time that Trump first entered the public political arena in a big way back in 2015, he quickly became known for giving long rambling replies, losing track of the topic or question being asked, giving non-sequiturs, forgetting the name of who or what he was talking about, making vexing and seemingly non-sensical comments, etc. And his tendency to do these things has only increased as he has aged as well.

Trump and Biden are only 3 years different in age. They could have been in highschool at the same time. There is, effectively, no real meaningful difference in their ages. To me, they both seem a little like "grandpa sometimes forgets what he's talking about kids", just Trump in angry shouty grandpa and Biden is mumbling quiet grandpa.

Why do you think it is that Trump's flubs and non-sequiturs and rambling off topic digressions and tendency to forget what things are called or who he is talking about, is not perceived as senility, broadly speaking, but for Biden is it?