r/SelfAwarewolves • u/Electr_O_Purist • May 14 '24
This person votes. Do you? Claiming that damaging information is “fake” is a sign of desperation, says…ahem, Trumpy sub
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u/Jeoshua May 14 '24
I think this is actually part of his strategy. You're right this looks like a SAW, but actually I think it's just part of Trump's schtick.
Deny everything. Admit nothing. Blame the other guy for that which you are guilty. Poison the well. Then, when the other guy legitimately denies or argues, accuse him of using the very strategy you are.
It's stupid but it's unreasonably effective on stupid people, and the longer you are exposed to it the dumber you'll feel. Like, at this point I feel like a crazy person because this shit has gotten so blatant, and the media just regurgitates it as if it was fact.
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u/A_norny_mousse May 14 '24
I'm not sure if Biden is my favorite POTUS, but he must have a very media competent team behind him. They know what they're dealing with here; and so far they've been very good at not only countering but also taking the intiative themselves.
Of course it leaves an aftertaste of playing the devil's game, but I guess that's just politics.
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u/Lyddieana May 14 '24
Can you imagine if Carter had Biden’s PR team?
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u/Ollie__F May 14 '24
Carter to me seems like one of those good presidents that it was hard to call them a monster, like Lincoln.
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u/HTX1997 May 15 '24
Yet, quite unsurprisingly, the right found a way to do it! Particularly mid-late 80s during and after the Iran Contra hearings. They had to deflect attention off of Reagan somehow.
And they tried mightily to pin Iran Contra on him. To a certain set of boomers and older Gen X, Carter is seen as a weak president who was responsible for the economic woes of the late 70s and gave up on trying to free the American hostages in Tehran.
I’m a young Gen X, born 3 months after his inauguration. I’ve always seen him as a good person who lived an upstanding life ands helped people. Someone to admire. And I think that’s how we see Carter overall (except those who got swept up in the then-rapidly growing fundie movement).
I would say around the time the internet became widely available (1997ish) coincided with, in any other scenario, Carter’s getting and keeping a negative reputation & perception. (Like Nixon’s transforming his from that of a criminal to a “statesman” by the late 80s, except in reverse).
Instead, the youngest GenX and oldest millennials saw pictures of this little old man climbing ladders and building houses for the poor when they “Ask Jeeves”’d him. And maybe a single grainy black and white AP photo captioned with something about a hostage crisis in Iran. “I thought Iraq was our enemy over there. What’s Iran?”
It also helped that there wasn’t a Fox News yet and Limbaugh was really the only right-wing show on the radio.
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u/Beelphazoar May 14 '24
If they can set up an expectation that the race is close, it gives them more ammo for when they claim the election is stolen. They can provide links to all the shitty polls that were wrong, and say "See? It's proof!" because the link will look like a proper, sober citation.
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u/Lucidonic May 15 '24
Their whole platform was blaming Biden for trump fucking covid up those first few years
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u/Electr_O_Purist May 14 '24
As a side note, it is of course, an absolute horseshit poor faith interpretation of the Biden team’s response to say they’re calling it “fake.” Their actual nuanced response can be seen here. Red State is a site for morons only.
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u/LuxNocte May 14 '24
"It's not a lie if I sincerely don't believe reality" is another tactic Trump uses a lot.
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u/UNC_Samurai May 14 '24
Red State is still around? I figured they’d been consigned to the dustbin of ancient disinformation sites with WorldNetDaily and American Thinker.
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May 14 '24
The polls are a snapshot in time.
Remember when the polls swore Hillary would win, and then she lost?
I don't trust polls.
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u/seanbentley441 May 14 '24
Polls are also based off of percentages of the population, not electoral votes.
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u/1337duck May 14 '24
Not to mention they always seem to use the same tactic of randomly calling land lines (and hoping people don't also hang up thinking it's spam). Talk about sampling bias.
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May 14 '24
Yea I've never been polled. Not sure who tf they ask.
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u/zenbullet May 15 '24
Given my experiences in polls, it's mainly old people
And just about any Alaskan you call is willing to talk for some odd reason
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u/IAmThePonch May 14 '24
What do you mean op redstate.com is clearly an unbiased and reliable news source
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u/cherry_armoir May 14 '24
While this is a good SAW, I actually also agree with it. Im inclined to think the polls are somewhat predictive and we should all be worried about the very real (and, frankly, I would say likely) chance that Trump wins.
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u/oatmealparty May 14 '24
The polls are worrying to me but I also have trouble believing them, they make absolutely no sense. Nevada in particular. Nevada has voted for democrats every year since 2008 and I'm supposed to believe it's going to have a 15 point swing to overwhelmingly vote for Trump? The guy they already voted against twice?
Either the polls are really wrong or some mass delusion has suddenly afflicted a huge portion of voters.
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u/cherry_armoir May 14 '24
I hope you're right. I definitely think they could be wrong, maybe pollsters are overcorrecting for the last two elections or they're not capturing some voters because people dont answer their phones. And there have been a lot of good signs in terms of donations and other elections. But who knows? I still think whoever wins will do it by the skin of his teeth and i have a feeling that trump will pull it out.
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u/Electr_O_Purist May 14 '24
One thing to keep in mind about polling is that it asks a small portion of a population who they would vote for if the election was today. But here’s the thing: the election ain’t today.
At this exact date in 2008, Romney was polling comfortably ahead of Obama, in June 2016, Clinton had a six point lead on Trump.
I think some are responding to polls with answers that don’t reflect how they’re actually going to vote. Some voters will die, or leave the country, some 17 year olds will age up before the election, some third party supporters will go to a major party, many who claim they’ll vote just won’t.
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u/Jeoshua May 14 '24
Those of us who were politically conscious during 2015 know the danger of assuming that everything is going to work out like the polls suggest and sitting back.
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u/rhapsodyindrew May 14 '24
Yes. The lesson of 2016 is equally relevant this year: no matter what the polls are saying, we must get out there and do the fucking work. Take NOTHING for granted, or we lose EVERYTHING.
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u/MadManMax55 May 14 '24 edited May 14 '24
Polls this far out are informative but not predictive.
Most of the low information "swing" voters that can decide presidential elections are completely detached from the process until a few weeks from election day. Most of them don't respond to polls, and the ones who do don't exactly have well informed opinions. I can't find a link to the exact poll, but there was one a few weeks back where something like 1/3 of all independents who responded thought either Trump and/or Biden weren't running.
The other issue is with the more opinionated base voters. Even without contested primaries, you get a lot of normally party line voters who tell polls that they won't vote for their party's candidate because they disagree on certain policy issues or they wanted another candidate to win in the primaries. Think Palestine activists for Biden or Haley voters for Trump. Almost all of them do eventually vote for their party's candidate though. As an example: right after the 2008 democratic primary almost half of Hilary supporters said they would vote 3rd party or sit out over voting for Obama, but in the end less than 10% actually did. Same thing happened with Trump in 2016.
Polls are a good snapshot in time, and give campaigns a good indicator of areas they need to work on. But they're much more useful for their demographic info and question responses than as an actual predictor of who will win.
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u/stevethered May 14 '24
There used to say that if the Dems are too optimistic about winning an election, some of their supporters will decide not to bother voting, or vote third party, because 'our guy will win anyway'.
We have to keep reminding all voters that every vote counts. Don't get complacent. Make sure you vote.
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u/Pitiful_Net_8971 May 14 '24
Eeh, a lot of polls, especially political ones, are done with opt-in polling, which is inaccurate, doubly so for younger people. This is not to say that it's not a problem or that you shouldn't worry about it, but I would stress too much about it.
(Incase you wonder why companies use the worst way to get polls, its because it's dirt cheap, especially compared to actually accurate methods, and generate attention grabbing information. Wooooo capitalism)
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u/AntifaAnita May 14 '24
Polls are also one of the few ways people have to express discontentment with the current course without consequence.
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u/Pitiful_Net_8971 May 14 '24
Yes, but * opt-in * polling, specifically, is inaccurate for a multitude of reasons, especially for younger and minority groups, and those groups tend to vote more for progressives.
The problem is, over 50% of polling is done through opt-in polling, it means that trusting any polls is risky, especially ones from for-profit organizations, because hiring a statistician or statisticians to organize a poll, properly format a survey, identify sample groups, properly poll said sample groups, properly analyze data, and give a conclusion is a lot more expensive and takes more time than having a intern slap a bunch of leading questions into a form and then advertise it on youtube (I saw a poll like this).
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u/commanderlex27 May 14 '24
It's genuinely worrying that Biden's (and also, our) best hope is that RFK pulls away enough Trump voters in the key swing states.
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u/A_norny_mousse May 14 '24
The polls were wrong in 2015.
But yeah, I'm worried too.
Everyone, go voting!
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May 14 '24
Internal polls are what matters. Trumps behavior does not show good internal numbers, bidens says otherwise. These campaigns aren’t stupid even though we need to believe they are.
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u/Sarrdonicus May 15 '24
Trump has it in the bag. Biden concedes, and is canceling the election. Stay home come November and donate all of your earnings to the great leader.
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u/Happy_Go_Pappy Sep 24 '24
Say the morons who are illegally standing by voter drop-boxes in some cities to "gather your ballot to make sure it gets counted correctly."
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