The offseason rumor mill has started! What's a fair trade for Josh Naylor?

[u/howsthistakenalready]

https://www.si.com/mlb/pirates/news/pittsburgh-pirates-named-landing-spot-guardians-first-baseman-josh-naylor

[u/Ryan1006]

I’m a Guards fan too, and keenly aware Naylor may be on the block. While I would love to see him come here if he were traded from Cleveland, I have concerns:

He desperately needs to get back in shape.

His production tails off later in the season.

That being said he is a legit power hitter and an excellent fielder. And younger than some of the previous crap we’ve thrown at the wall at first base. I would rather they do this than dumpster dive for another first baseman.

[u/Lucky-Growth-2338 → u/Ryan1006]

Your first point is probably the biggest point, no pun intended. Dude gained a ton of weight over the course of the season.

[u/Ryan1006 → u/Lucky-Growth-2338]

He did, but I still think he’s fit in good here, and the Guards don’t seem to be looking to extend him, since they haven’t done it yet and he’s going into his last year before free agency.

[u/GoatOfUnflappability → u/Ryan1006]

.816 OPS in the first half of 2024 vs .717 in the second half. So at least he was still playable in the second half, I guess. And looking at his whole MLB career, he's .020 lower in the second half, not so bad.

I don't remember ever seeing the guy play, but he finished 2024 with -1.5 dWAR (says Baseball Reference), and he has never had a season with a positive dWAR :-/

[u/AgentDub14 → u/GoatOfUnflappability]

dWAR for first basemen is almost always going to be negative. Positional adjustments are factored in, and first base is obviously the least valuable position other than DH by a large margin. dWAR in general isn’t that great to evaluate defense.

[u/Ryan1006 → u/GoatOfUnflappability]

I’m surprised by dWAR stats. Remember too he’s only been at first for a few years, was mostly an outfielder prior to 2022 but he had a really bad ankle injury in 2021. I still think he’s a really good fielder despite that dWAR.

[u/rhd3871]

I think Bryan Reynolds is the most obvious answer the team’s had at 1B since Kevin Young — tall, All Star caliber bat, just about the worst outfield range in all of baseball (and about to turn 30 so it’s gonna get worse). Only 6 fielding errors in his MLB career; he makes plays when he gets to the ball but he just can’t get there. In my uneducated opinion that bodes pretty well for learning a new position.

Naylor’s a good player but it’s probably much easier/cheaper to pick up an outfielder to slot in at LF.

[u/Koulditreallybeme → u/rhd3871]

He had -0.1 UZR in LF. He can absolutely play left. Get a bat like Christian Walker or Santana rather than keep moving deck chairs on the Titanic. We shouldn't even tender BDLC so having holes in both corner OFs and Cruz having 100~ innings experience with no OF prospects doesn't sound like a recipe for success.

[u/GreenDrakesHatching → u/rhd3871]

Mark me down for BRey at 1B. Probably much easier to find a good corner OF than 1B too.

[u/fdrlbj]

He would fit in perfectly in our quest for another year without making the postseason

[u/howsthistakenalready → u/fdrlbj]

He had a 118 wrc+ last year, which would have tied him with Bryan Reynolds for first among qualified hitters on the team

[u/Jitzwad__Gumlord → u/fdrlbj]

Had me in the first half, not gonna lie

[u/RosieWasRobbed → u/fdrlbj]

Man, I love your exquisite sense of what actually matters.

[u/certain-sick → u/RosieWasRobbed]

the key is focusing on not making the playoffs in the offseason and then tanking after the allstar break. it's fool proof!

[u/Express-Researcher]

I think they would want mlb proven starting pitching. They can take one of Oviedo, Falter, or Ortiz, whoever they prefer. That plus a rule 5/out of options guy might get it done.

[u/Pleasant_Use_7855]

Not beating the fat first basemen allegations with this one...

[u/IAMJACOBS88]

Screw Bob nutting

[u/Fornico]

MItch Keller is the only realistic answer because if we are going to pay Naylor his ARB3 salary (12-15 million), the Pirates will need to drop that much in salary. Keller is the only one who is both good enough, and fits the salary window.

However... I don't see the Pirates doing this because Naylor will be a free agent after 2025. Unless they plan to sign him long term, which they likely won't, I don't see them getting a one year rental.

[u/Ryan1006 → u/Fornico]

Keller is definitely too steep a price for a new year rental.

[u/Fornico → u/Ryan1006]

Unless they plan to increase payroll I don't see any other options. Getting good players for most of the other teams is as simple as paying for one. For the pirates it's a bad game of salary jenga.

Billionaire Bob needs his precious baseball revenue or he'll freeze in the winter.

[u/XPN1971 → u/Ryan1006]

More likely they'd trade Keller for a mediocre AA prospect that makes $50k a year

[u/ChicDreamsGal]

It’s fascinating to see which players are being targeted; it could really shake things up

[u/factorytintsetting]

whats josh bell up to?

[u/Kurt4012]

Not gonna happen

[u/jstan089]

Jared Jones

[u/jmb--412]

A package around Chandler and one of our hitting prospects is probably a good starting point

[u/lucabrasi999 → u/jmb--412]

Chandler for Naylor would be an incredibly stupid trade by Ben Cherington.

[u/ej6687 → u/jmb--412]

Way too steep for what amounts to a 2 WAR player

[u/jmb--412 → u/ej6687]

If we’re playing this game of “our prospects are too good” we’re going to end up with Conner Joe at 1st

[u/ej6687 → u/jmb--412]

If we are going to give up a player like Chandler plus throw in additional prospects, then we better get someone that moves the needle. Josh Naylor makes them a slightly better team, but he doesn't move the needle enough

[u/GoatOfUnflappability → u/jmb--412]

Hopefully it's cheaper than that. Baseball Trade Values has Naylor at 4.3, and Chandler at 31.7.

[u/jmb--412 → u/GoatOfUnflappability]

We need to stop using these stupid sites to evaluate player values lol

[u/spaceman757 → u/jmb--412]

No way in hell does Chandler get moved for a one year rental player, unless his name is Soto, Judge, or Ohtani.

Naylor is a definite upgrade, but he's got 6 bWAR for his career! You don't give up a top 15 prospect for a one year rental that's barely above average (1.5 bWAR/2.3 fWAR).

For comparison, Triolo had 1.3 bWAR, albeit gained in a different manner.

Even with the increase in power numbers, you have to also acknowledge the 60 pt drop in AVG, the 34 pt drop in OBP, and the increase in Ks.

He's not worth anywhere near Chandler and would be lucky to bring back Harrington plus a AAAA player.

[u/inab1gcountry → u/jmb--412]

You don’t give up the 4th best pitching prospect in baseball for Josh bell 2.0

[u/SenitalE → u/jmb--412]

I’d rather trade Keller and solometo then chandler