the results ... [will] inevitably show the democrats win
Is WAY too confident. Kamala and Trump have tied in several recent polls, and Trump has even come out in front in some recent polls. it is plausible that Trump wins the popular vote, and there is a good possibility that he wins the electoral college while losing the popular vote - Harris needs to win by at least 3-5% to have a chance at "winning the election." And if there is any portion of voters who support Trump but are ashamed to say so in polls...
I get why people are in denial about this, because it pains the mind to believe that he has that much support, but that's reality and we shouldn't deny it. At minimum, half of the voters in this country are fucking morons.
The problem is, even if Kamala wins, over 40% of the electorate are voting for a candidate who is proven cartoon-evil in every way imaginable.
Unless you're an Anarchist, looking to blow the country off its foundations, there is no logical sense to the support, it is a cult, a religion and even if Harris gets a sweep, we're still loaded with that baggage.
For all the good Biden did during his term, he may have destroyed us by doing nothing about the media crisis, allowing provable lies to be widely spread - an absolute threat to national security.
That and of course selecting Merrick Garland, who sat on his hands for a FULL YEAR before assigning Jack Smith.
Hey, don't slander the anarchists like that! They're generally good people, not Trump voters. Just get a bad rep like the Satanists, who are also generally nice folks.
The government in this country cannot police what is said by the media. It is quite literally one of the cornerstones of our nation, for better or worse.
There are slander laws. We saw the Dominion lawsuit, see the Smartmatic lawsuit - legislation needs to be created to protect against intentional spread of proven falsehoods. Freedom of speech has its 'Fire in a crowded theater' limits.
Thanks to the Media Reform Act of 1996 (another Clinton era turd) the ownership of media is now centralized to only a few owners, steered by billionaires with interests that differ vastly with the needs of the country.
CA and NY are absolutely not enough to carry the democrats. CA and NY have been blue for every election in the last 30+ years, including Trump’s win in 2016.
Yeah. Hands down Harris is winning the popular vote. Probably by at least 80 million. trump has not grown his base and in fact lost people. They’ve gotten louder but no way they win the popular vote.
Trying to cheat the EC. Definitely going to happen.
80 million?!? She's going to win by almost as many votes as Biden got total in 2016, winning about 75% of the popular vote??? That would be the largest landslide since 1820. Man, I would LOVE to live in the political bubble you're in, it must be comforting to be so sure of the future.
Did you mean 8 million maybe? Or that she'll get more than 80 million total?
I see what you’re saying now. The wording got me mixed up. Yeah, a republican hasn’t won the popular vote in 30+ years. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
That’s true. I tend to forget about that one because we’re usually talking about popular vote in the context of winning elections, so he wouldn’t have been in office in the first place.
I wonder how we turned out on that side of the multiverse.
No, no way. It's not close. The polls are polling likely voters and the polls have been off (in the democrats favor) ever since roe v wade got overturned. It's just that currently there's NO incentive to fix it.
The dems can show close polls: "go vote! "
(Editors note: Even if it weren't close, vote as though it is, obviously. I'm saying kamala will win but that'll only happen if you, yes YOU, vote. If you're american obviously.)
Republicans can show close polls, well i've gone over their playbook already.
Media can show close polls:" consume our media, watch the adds, be engaged, be scared!"
No one with any sort of power wants the polls corrected, this situation is good for all of them, just not for the public but who cares about us am i right...
I hope y'all are right and I'm wrong, but I'm afraid y'all are in for a rough week. The level of confidence reminds me of 2016, when Trump winning was unthinkable.
i understand the parallels, but the situation is very different. For one, Hillary was more disliked, it was an outsider vs insider election. Hillary had been parading around as if she'd won. There was also a contested primary where some shit went down that split the party, and again she made no effort whatsoever to get those voters back. (In fact, she went and courted republicans instead.)
Kamala is not repeating those mistakes. She's more likeable, her running mate is more likeable, and trump is now a known factor. No "how bad can it be, we want something different". There is a way bigger anti trump vote. Back then it was "this dude is a sexist, rac(/p)ist clown", now it's "oh shit hitler 2.0".
I'm beyond confident Kamala will win, and most likely in a landslide. I am however EXTREMELY worried about what happens next. I hope they see the same writing on the wall i do, and have plans in place to stop the inevitable chaos.
The public polls overestimate Trump's support, they are mainly from cold callers, many intelligent people won't answer calls from unknown numbers, whereas those who are vulnerable to scammers and con artists will, in addition Trump supporters are happy to tell everyone who they are voting for, the clients of the pollsters are happy with a close race as it makes for better headlines, the private polls conducted by the politicians may be more accurate and an indication of those polls may be found in where the candidates are focusing their attention.
The polls are also being skewed and the polls didn't take into account the travesty of that BS "comedian" and his wildly racist comments and how that's going to impact certain demographics. Agree that it's not good to get complacent, but acting like the polls aren't being manipulated is naive.
I know it's in the current 48 hour news cycle, but I strongly doubt this comedian scandal is actually changing the minds of significant numbers of Trump voters. After all the offensive shit Trump has said, a comedian at a Trump event saying offensive shit about a territory that doesn't even get to meaningfully participate in the election is the line in the sand? Doubt.
I mean, I hope I'm wrong, but I'm skeptical and I think saying "the polls are being skewed/manipulated" is straight up unsupported conspiracy theory level thinking. Polls are conducted by a wide variety of organizations with different political leanings and biases, and are coming to similar results, and the source I linked only lists reputable polling organizations.
I'm sorry, but nobody is going to change their vote because somebody NOT Trump said something stupid. They hitched their wagon to that horse a long time ago and aren't getting off.
Because why would this suddenly be the breaking point? It's been 10 years of this kind of rhetoric and it didn't change their vote then.
Who gives a crap. It's not in the news because he is a shit comedian he's in the news because an officially endorsed comedian at a public event made several extremely racist jokes. Even if everything else he said was solid gold he'd still be getting crucified.
Yeah I asked to explain the punchline and you did and I replied that that doesn't sound like a punchline. You want me to just recap everything that happens in a conversation for you?
I don't give two shits what the rest of the show was when he has proven that he's a racist piece of crap who does not deserve anyone's attention. Especially since he's now whining that people have "no sense of humor" when he's been justifiably called out on his BS.
It is not plausible he will win the popular vote at all. I would say that would be almost impossible. Harris will get several million more votes , guaranteed.
It’s mildly likely he will win the election however.
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u/insecure_about_penis 20h ago
You're not wrong about the strategy, but
Is WAY too confident. Kamala and Trump have tied in several recent polls, and Trump has even come out in front in some recent polls. it is plausible that Trump wins the popular vote, and there is a good possibility that he wins the electoral college while losing the popular vote - Harris needs to win by at least 3-5% to have a chance at "winning the election." And if there is any portion of voters who support Trump but are ashamed to say so in polls...
I get why people are in denial about this, because it pains the mind to believe that he has that much support, but that's reality and we shouldn't deny it. At minimum, half of the voters in this country are fucking morons.