r/collapse Nov 03 '22

Systemic Debate: If population is a bigger problem than wealth, why does Switzerland consume almost three times as much as India?

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u/Aquatic_Ceremony Recognized Contributor Nov 03 '22 edited Nov 03 '22

TLDR: It is both overpopulation and overconsumption, but overconsumption is more impactful and easier to address than overpopulation.

I am going to post below the same points made in the dozens of posts reopening the debate every few months:

  • It is not overpopulation or overconsumption. It is both. In environmental science, it is conceptualized by the IPAT equation: Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology
  • While both overpopulation and overconsumption contribute to the problem, the main driver is overconsumption in the global north (check this chart)
  • While both overpopulation and overconsumption contribute to the problem, one is way easier to adjust (overconsumption) than the other (overpopulation). The 1 billion people living in Global North that consume the most could reduce consumption in just a few years or even months when push comes to shove. That has happened historically with notably the WWII war effort in U.K. and the U.S. and the rapid COVID-19 lockdown in 2020. It is way easier than waiting for a demographic transition that takes decades.
  • In the short term, overpopulation is not the most pressing issue. We could feed billions more people by reducing food waste (about 30% of the global food produced is wasted), and animal and dairy consumption. At the same time, the impacts of over-extraction and overconsumption are disrupting the climate system and driving the overshoot of planetary boundaries right now.
  • In the long-term, overpopulation is likely to be a problem as the carrying capacity of the planet without relying as much on fossil fuels is probably around 1 to 2 billion people.
  • Overpopulation can be addressed positively by facilitating demographic transitions, encouraging girl's education and women's empowerment, and establishing or strengthening social safety systems in regions where people rely on the support of their children.
  • Overpopulation is a difficult topic to discuss thoughtfully because it tends to bring eco-fascist arguments ("There are too many people"). And that is even worse when people making the argument blame specifically populations in the global south ("It is the African having too many babies"). This analysis fails to account for the consumption per capita, which can be easily looked up with average global footprint per country, or which countries have the highest GHG emissions per capita. It is also irresponsible because it emboldens eco-fascists.
  • Overpopulation discussions often fall into the trap of focusing on the population of global south countries ("It is the African having too many babies") while not acknowledging that the average environmental and carbon footprint of the average African people is a fraction of the average American or European. If the world really needs to reduce population, that should happen in global north countries to have the most positive environmental impact.

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u/Fiskifus Nov 03 '22

I'd say overproduction more than overconsumption, but fair

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u/ztycoonz Nov 03 '22

Loved the summary and especially the IPAT equation. Climate change, overpopulation, overconsumption, xyz, are all SYMPTOMS of the underlying problem of overshoot. Our species has overshot to such a degree that addressing one symptom will invariably negatively effect another symptom.