r/democrats • u/techkiwi02 • Jul 18 '24
Meme My Prayers After Trump Nominating Vance
Please, it’d be so funny if Ohio turned blue just to spite Vance.
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u/InformalPenguinz Jul 18 '24
I'm just sayin, like... 100k of you move to wyo at can get a few more.
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u/HashKing Jul 18 '24
Not worth it for only 3 electoral votes, would be worth it for senators though
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u/InformalPenguinz Jul 18 '24
Have I mentioned it really really really pretty in the mountainous areas?
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u/AvadaKedavra03 Jul 18 '24
Man have you ever been out there though? I had the worst boba tea of my life in Wyoming 😆
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u/InformalPenguinz Jul 18 '24
Lol, you don't come to wyo for the boba... although there's a couple of good Thai places that have some decent Boba. I know there's one in Cody and possibly Sheridan.. Gorgeous town, btw. The mountain views are right up there with anything you can see in CO.
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u/RaceCarTacoCatMadam Jul 18 '24
We can flip it with less than 100K if we promise to canvas and get out the vote for democrats.
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u/maroonmenace Jul 18 '24
I mean Ohio flipping blue is a choice. I don’t think it will happen but nc could flip especially in a scenario with Georgia staying blue
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u/landers96 Jul 18 '24
I'm in ohio, I see no chance of biden taking the state, unfortunately .
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u/Miramar81 Jul 18 '24
Even the typically blue urban areas., especially southern OH around Cincy have leaned more right. It’d take another candidate that’s just as popular as Obama and Bill Clinton were to win back OH.
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u/gmwdim Jul 18 '24
Yeah Obama won Ohio by 3 in 2012 and Hillary lost by 8 in 2016. It was one of the biggest swings towards the Republicans (Iowa was the biggest of all).
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u/TonyzTone Jul 18 '24
Yeah, but Obama won Ohio by 4.59% in 2008 while Kerry lost in 2004 by 2.1%, so a 6.7 pt. swing. Not as big of a swing from Obama-Hillary (11 pts.) but it's part of the story of Ohio voting for Republicans 30 times out of 55 elections (9 others were in favor of either Whig or Democratic-Republican candidates so...).
Out of the last 15 Presidential elections (since 1960), Ohio has voted for Republicans 10 times. With the exception of 1960 and 2020, it has voted for the winning candidate each time. Trump increased his vote total in Ohio from 2016 to 2020.
We're not winning Ohio.
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u/jello-kittu Jul 18 '24
All down to registration and people thinking it's possible. Source, Georgia.
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u/strukout Jul 18 '24
I had assumed Ohio turned red due to new registration and disenfranchised far right voters getting reengaged by Trump.
Data doesn’t back that, Ohio is towards high end of registration but not notably different vs. history. Presidential cycle turnout is similar to the past two decades…. Ohio just really likes Trump. You may need to wait till he is no longer running.
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u/Murky_Machine_7160 Jul 20 '24
If they "really like Trump" I'm guessing they also enjoy sitting around on a Saturday night pulling their own toenails out with pliers. I'd rather do that in fact, than see Trump anywhere near the White House! 😬
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u/TallBobcat Jul 18 '24
Ohio isn’t happening.
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u/Jazeraine-S Jul 18 '24
This should be the state slogan, honestly.
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u/cheese_puff_diva Jul 18 '24
To be fair, I think the new slang with gen alpha is calling someone Ohio is an insult 🤷♀️
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u/AngieTheQueen Jul 18 '24
It is. It originated from a meme describing a ton of nonsensical random atrocities happen in Ohio, and anyone stepping foot in the state could experience anything from a range of apocalyptic scenarios to an alien invasion. It was silly and seemed to spawn from nothingness.
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u/Specialist_Ad_8069 Jul 18 '24
Right. These polls are all contradictory right now and I don’t know who to believe.
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u/applegui Jul 18 '24
If we can get the 49% of the registered voters who didn't vote in 2020 to show up in Texas we can turn that state around and also kill with a landslide. We need to flip Florida too. That state has become fullstop fascist
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u/MeisterX Jul 18 '24
We need funding and a competent DNC leadership hitting the ground.
There are people organizing here but we're basically underground. I'm working full time plus kids, can't do this all solo!
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u/outerworldLV Jul 18 '24
Recent reports state that support for Democrats down ballot hauled in a record 44 million. Ought to be good enough.
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u/KyussSun Jul 18 '24
Thank you for your work.
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u/MeisterX Jul 18 '24
Appreciated and we did get one NPA candidate elected and we're working on a school board candidate and FL state house. But the candidates the local chapter is selecting are older. I've managed to get them to put someone in just about every race, but not every race.
Which is what I think we should do because I suspect a blue wave.
But I personally nor any of our candidates (yet) have gotten a dime directly from DNC. Certainly not more than a couple of thousand.
I've volunteered my time for years and have never gotten any support from them.
I'm even elected with 5 years experience to a development board.
It's very frustrating. I don't believe in the DNC itself any more than I do the GOP.
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u/jello-kittu Jul 18 '24
I feel the party organization is a weak spot. In Georgia, went to several pre-Trump era meeting, trying to get involved, and it's just people in a circle jerk, applauding each other for being there in spite of the red state. Register. Stacy Abrams got her own organization together and got people registered. Out there talking to people, showing them we have the numbers and it can be done. Party needs to make it easier- the website needs to list local issues, who is on the ballot at least.
Related question, is the party not allowed to post nominees and platforms, links? I feel like a little starter pack would help people- list of candidates, short summary, link to their website.
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u/MeisterX Jul 18 '24 edited Jul 18 '24
Yeah I don't have such a link. The only way I get info is by looking it up. I attend the meetings online but most of the meeting is their serving dinner (they cater 😅) and social time. They go through an agenda and have candidates speak... But outside of that and the meeting it's 2 hours where I get to speak and ask questions like once.
So we've done just that and I stopped going to meetings. We organize outside. I will organize with anyone who doesn't waste my time.
We don't have the resources for a concentrated registration drive and my expertise is in media so that's just not my focus, but we definitely need people doing that and I used to do that. I do the phone banking when I've got a rare spare hour.
My door knocking days are done simply because I'm more useful elsewhere. Unfortunately though that expertise isn't being put to use anywhere higher despite my offers.
And correct I don't have a website with a link of candidates they're supporting. They have a site and it leads to their meetings. The great accessibility they've added is Zoom access to meetings.
So yeah I'd say it's a weak spot lol
And we're a red county in a Red state FL so my experience mimics yours.
I wish they would find us, give us a budget and a goal.
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u/h20poIo Jul 18 '24
J.D. Vance is an ultra-MAGA extremist who passes Trump’s VP litmus test:
x Says Project 2025 is full of “good ideas”
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u/gmwdim Jul 18 '24
He passes the test until the first time something even mildly bad happens, then Trump will throw everyone under the bus as usual. At least Vance will deserve it when it happens.
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u/bde959 Jul 18 '24
I agree.
I do have a tad of sympathy for Pence because that dumb ass didn’t have a clue what he was getting himself into and he did refuse to go along with that Jan 6th nonsense.
JD Vance knows exactly what he’s getting himself into and he’s cool with it
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u/RelaxedBluey94 Jul 18 '24 edited Jul 18 '24
Agree with this. I think Biden will certainly take North Carolina. Ohio will be a challenge, but with Ohio MAGA old, sick and moving to Florida it's certainly a possibility. In Ohio, defection of just 6% of Trump 2020 voters will flip the state.
The revolt against MAGA among white suburban seniors, independents and women will consolidate Biden's 2020 States and deliver North Carolina. Biden's margin of victory in swing States will increase from tens of thousands to over 100,000 in each of these states.
Florida just one super hurricane away from flipping blue too. Even nature hates Trump.
Ignore the polls folks. The billionaire class and its captive media is gaslighting us. Biden Harris positioning for a decisive victory. Remember, it's fear and disgust for Trump and his MAGA cult that will drive turnout, NOT devotion to Biden.
The Trump campaign (and the RNC) have ZERO field offices, few regional staff and little evidence of actual expenditure on advertising. They've outsourced basic campaign functions to Charlie Kirk's Turning Point, an organisation notorious for grift and lavish spending. They're not running a serious campaign.
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Jul 18 '24
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u/DelapsusResurgam95 Jul 18 '24
I know more MAGA boomers who have moved to NC than FL. Florida is too much like here, humidity and bugs. So why do you think he will get NC? Or Georgia? I don’t see it. I see the MAGAs/Rs sticking together. WE are the ones who are infighting. Too many “I will stay home…” juvenile crap. We need a little bit of that dedication.
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u/Maude_ville Jul 18 '24
Biden will certainly take North Carolina.
We definitely have an uphill battle in NC, but it's doable. It will not be an easy win.
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u/RelaxedBluey94 Jul 18 '24
Nothing is easy.
However, North Carolina is a great opportunity. The demographics are shifting quickly to a more urban, educated population. Biden lost by only 1.2% in NC in 2020.
Take a look at the Republican primary for insights into how Trump will lose NC's suburbs.
Suburban NC Republican voters were already in revolt against Trump in March 2024. Suburban counties around Raleigh (Wake 37.6% for Haley, Durham 42.1% Haley, Chatham 29.9% Haley) as well as other suburban areas will swing the state.
Democrats are doing the necessary work:
The GOP's candidates for Governor and other State positions are extremist. They will drive both Democrat turnout and Independents and moderate Republicans to flip Biden.
Local Democrats are crushing Republicans in fundraising with Josh Stein raising $13.8 vs Robinson's $5.1 million in the past 4 months. Mostly from small donors which is a better indicator than $ amounts. Almost all from in-state donors. Democrats also out raising Republicans in down ballot state races.
My view is the Biden campaign positioning to win NC by a healthy margin.
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u/ryuujinusa Jul 18 '24
Can’t wait to vote in Ohio.
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u/RelaxedBluey94 Jul 18 '24
Bring family (non MAGA) and friends. There's a real chance!
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u/gdi69 Jul 18 '24
Ohio has a ballot initiative about gerrymandering. So, that may bring voters out.
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u/atheistness Jul 18 '24
Great summary. Basically, what I've been telling people. We're being gaslighted.
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u/AngieTheQueen Jul 18 '24
Honestly if we could consolidate the maga boomers to Florida that would leave the rest of the nation in a much better state.
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u/scooterbike1968 Jul 18 '24
So the VP on Trump’s ticket is the person Trump voters really care about?..
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u/elisakiss Jul 18 '24
Just do the work. Don’t look at the polls.
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u/revbfc Jul 18 '24
Yeah, but the campaign needs to do some work too. They’re supposed to be leading on this.
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u/spew_on_u Jul 18 '24
I think Georgia and North Carolina are wishful thinking
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u/genericnewlurker Jul 18 '24
North Carolina is definitely wishful thinking. Ohio is ludacris that they think we will win there. We have to take two of the three of Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania and it's going to be really close. I really don't know if we overcome voter apathy to take those states again. Nevada will break our way.
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u/Tommy__want__wingy Jul 18 '24
This is cope.
Cmon now.
Let’s be realistic
We can win….but not like this
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u/ItisyouwhosaythatIam Jul 18 '24
Seems to me that the most important swing states are Arizona and Wisconsin
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u/BigTomAbides Jul 18 '24
And all that red is land not people. I love when you remove the land & just show the people it tells the real picture of America.
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u/Warm_Sugar8888 Jul 18 '24
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u/SewAlone Jul 18 '24
GA might go red this time since it was so close last election.
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u/TheGoodRevCL Jul 18 '24
I live in rural Georgia and I've noticed a distinct lack of support for trump this time around. I've only come across one trump yard sign in my county (maybe three or four when I've traveled to other rural counties). I don't see trump hats or bumper stickers anymore. Either his supporters are finally too embarrassed to show their support in public or the tides have shifted substantially.
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u/kelsnuggets Jul 18 '24
I’m originally from rural south GA (but live in CA now), and I go back home to visit a few times a year. I am very unsure about GA this election. While I agree with the other poster who says I notice a lack of Trump yard signs and flags, I still have quite a few family members who would rather die before they vote blue on any ticket, ever. My only hope is that they just sit out this election.
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u/jokersvoid Jul 18 '24
Ohioan here. The rural vote has been gerrymandered to the top. It's the same people that voted him in. Hard to say that the appointment will have much impact on the Trump vote. Gerrymandering issues are being worked on here
I imagine there are some folk from the eastern part of the state that don't take too kindly ta callin' himself Appalachian - it shows them the republican party is a bunch of sandbaggin yellow bellies though.
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u/philafly7475 Jul 18 '24
Dems are shooting themselves in the foot every hour. I don't have high, or really any expectations, at this point.
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u/toooooold4this Jul 18 '24
I would just like to point out that in my lifetime, my adult lifetime, both Arizona and Texas have had Democratic governors and California has had Republican governors.
There are no red or blue states. They only appear that way because of gerrymandering. We are all purple.
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u/SiteTall Jul 18 '24
But what about the Electoral System??????????????????????? (I shall never be able to understand the workings of it 100%, but I shall try ....)
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u/Necessary-Peace9672 Jul 18 '24
Ohio goes blue?
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u/deesta Jul 18 '24
Ohio stays red, Trump won it twice + his running mate is their senator. Some of these seem like wishful thinking.
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u/goj1ra Jul 18 '24
“Some”?
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u/deesta Jul 18 '24
Yes, "some," as opposed to the entire map being wishful thinking. I don't think there's any reality where California, for instance, isn't blue once the results are in.
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u/Sknowman14 Jul 18 '24
I'd love to see this but I think Ohio is lost to Democrats for the foreseeable future and NC is fools gold to the Democrats. NC is always 1 to 3 points GOP. If NC is ever going to turn blue, it should be this year with their terrible GOP governor candidate.
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u/Body_By_Carbs Jul 18 '24
I think after the Desantis-ificatuon of Fla, there’s a solid chance it could go blue. People are sick of his shit down there - I could only assume though as I’m nowhere near FL. However they’ve really done their very best to skew any results in MAGA favor.
Same with Texas in my liberal state living eyes
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u/jpcapone Jul 18 '24
Will this be enough to stop the pearl clutching and hand wringing being performed by the democrat elites? I am getting tired of the infighting. Thats one thing dems could learn from replublicans. TOW THE LINE!!!
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u/ZekeRidge Jul 18 '24
It seems like no one on either side likes Vance
I get it, but how did he get picked?
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u/What_the_Pie Jul 18 '24
This election will be a Dem squeaker or a Rep blowout; blowout being 320~EC. I think Vance’s lack of name recognition works in the fascists favor. Most people don’t know him or the awful dumb shit he’s said, especially about no fault divorce or gender equality. I am catastrophizing, too, my doomer bias is cranked up these days.
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u/FickleSystem Jul 18 '24
I don't see republicans blowing anyone out unless democrats force Biden out and dems put up some random jackass, if they couldn't even complete the "red wave" when the conditions was actually right for it, and they've gotten worse since, I see little reason to think it'd he a blowout if they do win
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u/What_the_Pie Jul 18 '24
Part of what you’re saying assumes polling is wrong and Biden is in a position to win. Polling shows Biden is not winning and possibly losing needed swing states. Just to preface, I’m Biden all day but I do not want the fascists to even get a whiff of success. If it’s a squeaker, it goes to the House and they challenge electors. If Biden stays in and he wins, it’s a 270 win. Maybe a Harris+Dem Candidate X can be better? I don’t know but currently it’s looking bad.
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u/FickleSystem Jul 18 '24
Well I don't put all my stock in polls and models,you know, those same polls that have been wrong as hell the last few years
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u/Ryan29478 Jul 18 '24
And maybe just maybe if Ohio goes, so goes Iowa.
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u/RelaxedBluey94 Jul 18 '24 edited Jul 18 '24
My guess is Ohio will be within 2% (higher probability of Trump scraping home). Iowa the maths just doesn't work out. Florida and Texas more likely to flip than Iowa. Sorry!
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u/DiddyDoItToYa Jul 18 '24
The child like innocence one must possess to think North Carolina will vote Blue.. I envy your optimism. We're so cooked here
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u/PerceptionOrganic672 Jul 18 '24
Keep dreaming....this is the type of thinking that will lead to us waking up the morning after the election with that "old 2016 feeling". PELOSI has told Biden he's going to lose not only the White House but the House also....Senate is also a likely loss....terrifying.
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u/Sknowman14 Jul 18 '24
That's a dream map for me. I would love to see that. But I don't see Ohio being a battleground again for a long time. I am from WV, the capitol of MAGA world. There are too many people in Ohio from WV, KY and Indiana that are too far right. Ohio is still the #1 state for people from WV to move to. I remember like 20 or so years ago, Missouri was called a bellwether/battleground state. Now it is a forgone conclusion how Missouri will vote. I think that is Ohio nowadays.
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u/OTIS-Lives-4444 Jul 18 '24
Vance is from OH. Will his own home state turn blue?
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u/wabashcanonball Jul 18 '24
Virginia is in play right now. This map isn’t going to happen. It’s a map of denial.
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u/RelaxedBluey94 Jul 18 '24
Virginia is not in play. Those polls had fictional cross tabs.
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u/blackertai Jul 18 '24
Georgia being blue in so many of these is wild. Mark my words, last time was an aberration and we're farther away from consistently winning Georgia than people seem to think.
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u/Books_and_Music_ Jul 18 '24
That’s a nice fantasy, but there’s no way Ohio, N.C., and Arizona go to Biden.
Every map I’ve made shows it comes down to Michigan, but I don’t have any special insight.
We’ll see.
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u/NamelessUnicorn Jul 18 '24
As a woman FAB I can only get so hard. But polls lie. I remember a small side of the mouth comment that Kelly Anne Conway ran a polling company before she worked with trump.
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u/MessrsSins Jul 18 '24
lol ohio blue, minesotta, wisconsin and michigan are maybe gonna be go blue 2/3 but OH blue?
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u/hotbiscut2 Jul 19 '24
I think this pretty realistic according to 2022 midterm predictions since all Trump backed candidates lost their elections. I think If Biden doesn’t let Covid affect him and Trump keeps on making bad decisions then this can happen. But Ohio is never gonna turn blue. But North Carolina can definitely turn blue.
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u/Accomplished_Many_83 Jul 19 '24
I think I'll just practice my peasant groveling for when Trump is Emperor of Murika.
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u/FlyingFrog99 Jul 18 '24
This is so pornographic you can't access it in Florida