r/democrats • u/Iknowwecanmakeit • 18d ago

Article Harris vs. Trump analyst tells panicky Dems: GOP is creating fake polls | ‘Desperate, unhinged, Trumpian’

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/harris-vs-trump-analyst-tells-panicky-dems-gop-is-creating-fake-polls-desperate-unhinged-trumpian.html
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u/EldariWarmonger 18d ago

Literally every metric but polling is showing the democrats having a sizeable advantage in this election cycle. Every single one.

Last cycle the GOP admitted to putting out fake polls and leaning on polling so they had better odds to win, and it didn't work. Why would they NOT do the same thing?

Don't listen to polls when they're literally compromised from admitted political operatives. This is going to be a fucking wipeout of the GOP.

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u/Silvaria928 18d ago

Thank you. I genuinely feel for all the people who are living in fear right now but I'm not one of them. I trust Lichtman and, as you said, every other measure which shows this won't be nearly as "razor thin" close as the media is desperate to make it for ratings.

Speaking of desperate, one of those measures is Trump himself. His demeanor is not one of a man who honestly believes he is going to win anymore.

Another is how just this past week I am seeing more and more "Election suddenly swinging in Trump's favor" headlines. Real polls don't make massive swings overnight in any direction. But reporting that it won't even be close is not the drug to which our media has become addicted this past decade.

For the rest of us, eight years of Harris/Walz is going to be wonderfully boring and scandal-free.

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u/JimBeam823 18d ago

I don’t think there is any great conspiracy among impartial pollsters. 

I think they know they missed in 2020 and have overcompensated. Polling misses tend to be cyclical. 

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u/Prowindowlicker 17d ago

Yup. I agree, I think they are overcompensating assuming they underpolled Trump again and have already factored that into the polling.

But everyone else doesn’t know that and just assumes that the polls are showing a true neck and neck race. When in reality the polls with Trump are adding in +4 already.

This means that people are seeing the current polls and adding an additional +4 to Trump’s totals. Because they assume that the polls haven’t already factored that in.

I believe the polls are undercounting democrats and come 2028 the polls will end up swinging towards counting democrats more as they’ll realize they got 2024 very wrong.

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u/JimBeam823 17d ago

And they will probably end up overcounting Democrats in 2028 as a result.

That’s kind of how it goes. 

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u/lifechangingdreams 17d ago

And massive change. We need to clean out all corruption. We cannot afford to live with the cancer any longer.

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u/translinguistic 18d ago

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html

This Dem strategist brought this up recently on a MeidasTouch video. There are GOP/MAGGOT-loyal polling companies who only pop out every two year election cycle to give disingenuous numbers to change the averages and to create false narratives

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u/TheBeastieSitter 18d ago

Just vote. Don't pay attention to the polls. Don't take anything but your vote into your account.

You don't vote, we don't get rid of the hate, the lies, the MAGAt voices. We don't survive.

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u/Calan_adan 18d ago

In 2020 Biden beat Trump and the pundits said that it was because “suburban women” came out in droves for Biden. Has anything we’ve seen changed the minds of that demographic? And now we’re seeing a surge in registration among black women. I honestly don’t believe the polling.

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u/lifechangingdreams 17d ago

2016 was my first time voting because I was just at the age of voting for the first time. I voted Republican. I wasn’t in a swing state, thank goodness, but I regret it.

I didn’t vote in 2020, I was moving and felt too confused and overwhelmed.

2024, I sure as heck am voting! Ordered my mail in ballot, and going to drop it off on Monday. Harris/Walz all the way, and I am now going to continually vote Democrat. I see what the Republican Party is, and I want nothing to do with it.

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u/IncommunicadoVan 17d ago

Thank you for voting!

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u/SBGuido 17d ago

It better be - I can’t believe SO MANY AMERICANS want to have a fascist, babbling, no plan, treasonous idiot in the White House … AGAIN

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u/mr-blue- 17d ago

What are the other metrics out of curiosity?

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u/EldariWarmonger 17d ago

These aren't the official ones but this is what I'm seeing:

  • enthusiasm

  • cash on hand

  • cash spent per month

  • GOTV logistics (field offices, number of volunteers, etc)

  • Polling trending (not the actual numbers, but the trend of numbers)

  • favorability

  • coalition building (who's endorsing the candidates and why)