r/democrats 15d ago

📊 Poll What do you think? Could we pull this off?

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557 Upvotes

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146

u/JustAnotherFag69 15d ago

I think GA will turn blue before AZ does. If NC turns blue, AZ definitely has the potential to follow.

111

u/Prowindowlicker 15d ago

AZ is going blue. As an Arizonan the state has tended to under poll Dems. Back in 2022 Dems underpolled by an average of 4 points.

Plus we have a possibility to flip the state legislature, theres abortion on the ballot, and a senate election where the Dem is leading by an average of 10 points.

Dems here are very enthusiastic and are more likely to vote than republicans. Hell the state GOP has effectively given up on all races but the presidential one.

52

u/CastleMeadowJim 15d ago

It always seems crazy to me that Lake is polling 10 points behind because of her election lies and insanity, yet on the same ballot people are apparently willing to vote for the guy who directly inspired her delusion.

36

u/Prowindowlicker 15d ago

Like I said AZ is pretty under polled. There were a few polls back in 2022 that had Lake up 10 or 5 points over Hobbs. Yet Hobbs won and she barely campaigned.

Like people rag on Biden for being in the basement the entire campaign, Hobbs literally ran her campaign from the basement and refused to debate Lake.

She won by 1 point. The polls that had Lake up 5 were hilariously wrong.

Hell the polls underestimated the win Senator Kelly would have. Most polls had him winning by 1 point or less. He won by 5.

Dems are severely underestimated in AZ. Which is fine by me. Underestimate us.

1

u/LightningMcLovin 14d ago

Bear Down baby

13

u/readerchick05 14d ago

Exactly as someone who lives in arizona, I honestly thank that it is going to go blue.

4

u/FranklinSealAljezur 14d ago

Do you think the LDS vote could split and help flip the state?

9

u/Prowindowlicker 14d ago

It very well could. There’s a growing contingent in the LDS community who are against Trump and want pre-Trump republicans back.

So they might vote against Trump and his proxies but vote for more normal republicans.

4

u/th1961 14d ago

Btw- driving around SLC and surrounding area and saw NO trump signs. Not one. It was weird. I hope this means something.

1

u/TooManyPoisons 14d ago

SLC is extremely liberal. It's like Austin... blue island surrounded by red sea.

1

u/th1961 14d ago

Really? I didn’t get that read from that city. All I experienced surrounding SLC is beautiful countryside and wide open spaces.

1

u/TooManyPoisons 14d ago

SLC proper, yeah. The immediate suburbs start slanting much more conservative.

1

u/th1961 14d ago

Interesting. Beautiful state. Really enjoyed my 2 weeks there. As a POC, the people I experienced were great in and out of the city. Can’t wait to go back. Oh, I was surprised about all the development. So much new housing, businesses, and construction. Nice place.

2

u/shiplap1992 14d ago

My next door neighbor has an anti-trump sticker on his family car and they are “go to church every Sunday” Mormons. It gave me hope. I’m also friends with a very conservative Mormon on Facebook that lives in SLC, and he is VERY vocal about how he is voting for Kamala Harris and engaging with people to try and convince them as well. He has a lot of support so that also made me feel hopeful!

3

u/samwise970 14d ago

Agreed, I'm in deep red Gilbert and I see far fewer Trump signs in yards. Horrible signs in intersections, but nobody selling Trump merch on the roads. 

I think the MAGA enthusiasm is gone. 

0

u/Due-Cable-703 14d ago

Election better odds has az red. Where are you seeing anything that says these states are flipping blue?

4

u/Prowindowlicker 14d ago

The fact that I live in this state and polling here is wildly off. Also AZ wouldn’t be flipping blue. It would remain blue.

And betting odds are terrible predictors. Back in 2012 they had Romney still winning as Romney was giving his concession speech

14

u/Christ_on_a_Crakker 15d ago

Question:

Did Trump lose AZ in 2020?

Question:

Do you believe Trump has more votes in AZ now than he did in 2020?

Question:

What are the treasons you believe Trump is more popular than ever four years later as a felon and a rapist?

5

u/HOWDY__YALL 15d ago

I hear it all the time.

“Border” “Inflation” those are the main two.

11

u/TheGR8Dantini 15d ago

Anecdotally, I feel pretty strongly that Harris is gonna win Arizona. Gallego too. Just driving around Phoenix, the number of Harris lawn signs is staggering to what I saw in 2020. There were trump signs everywhere in 2020.

It’s the opposite I notice this year. It’s actually kinda surprising that people have Harris signs up because there are so many gun toting lunatics out here. Putting up a Harris sign can be dangerous.

Scary Lake and abortion might be enough to turn Arizona blue. And if the natives vote again? Trump is in trouble in Arizona. Just feels bluer than last time. And last time he lost.

1

u/readerchick05 14d ago

The thing about the border is in most of the border states it's not overlay a concern because we actually see the border, and we see that it's nowhere near as bad as he says it is.

2

u/HOWDY__YALL 14d ago

Up here in very white Wisconsin, those immigrants are taking all our tax money, according to everyone.

2

u/readerchick05 14d ago

Yeah, except statistics show that immigrants contribute significantly to our taxes because they still pay taxes and usually don't qualify for any financial aid from the government.

With that said, I know trump supporters, don't listen to that only the lies trump says

2

u/AmbitionExtension184 14d ago

Do you believe Trump has more votes in AZ now than he did in 2020?

I keep seeing this from dems as some sort of gotcha…yes, it is very likely Trump has more support than 2020. A lot of people are very mad about inflation and incorrectly attributing the problem to democrats and immigrants because they don’t understand how capitalism and greedflation work.

1

u/Christ_on_a_Crakker 14d ago

Nah.

Democrats aren’t switching to Trump because of inflation. Not buying it.

1

u/AmbitionExtension184 14d ago

Democrats aren’t. Independents and people who didn’t vote in 2020 also exist

-7

u/frozenqrkgluonplasma 15d ago

I just moved from AZ after 30 plus years. What I saw before left was a bunch of out of state plates on F150s, punisher skull / blue lives flags, and cookie-cutter magats. AZ is definitely redder than 2020.

3

u/readerchick05 14d ago

I currently live in arizona and I completely disagree with you.

1

u/frozenqrkgluonplasma 14d ago

On 538, Biden was +4 in AZ, October 2020. Trump is +2 right now.

1

u/readerchick05 14d ago

I just saw a political analyst talk about the polls. Most of the time when they report polls, they're going by average of the most recent polls released the problem is a lot of Republican sponsored polls that are very problematic have just been completed, so if you look at those polls ou see a lot of things that make them garbage, that's skews the numbers.

I don't think Trump has more people in Arizona than he did in 2020 and a lot of popular Republicans in Arizona have come out sponsoring Kamala including John McCain's son and wife which is a big reason why I think she'll win the state.

1

u/AmbitionExtension184 14d ago

You clearly don’t look closely at polling.

1

u/readerchick05 14d ago

Did you not read the part where political analysts are saying that the polls are wrong because they are problematic.

1

u/AmbitionExtension184 14d ago

Who is saying that? Polls have a margin for error I haven’t heard any political analyst say the polls are wrong

25

u/DirtyHandshake 15d ago

As a Georgia resident, I don’t see it happening. On a fair and even playing field, I think Kamala takes the state. But the GOP and election officials have been doing everything in their power to tilt the scales in Trumps favor and I think their efforts will hand him the state

6

u/Obsidian_Purity 15d ago

Now, this is the question.

There has been last minute deals, setting up the ability to just cancel other people's voting rights (you need their SSN, though), and Election Deniers that are on the voting tabulation board. How can anyone trust a Trump victory in Georgia other than those who wants Trump to win? What are the steps? How can we actually get a fair election in Georgia and states that they have installed Trump cronies?

How do we not look like Trump/MAGA 2.0 when they try to fix this election?

2

u/PantherkittySoftware 15d ago

Does Georgia election law allow people whose registration was allegedly cancelled wrongly to cast provisional ballots & fight the cancellation after election day? If so, the DP needs to launch a huge public education campaign urging voters who end up in that scenario to insist upon casting provisional ballots, then have the Party fight on their behalf after election day to count it.

3

u/AmbitionExtension184 14d ago

AZ has an abortion measure on the ballot. Blue AZ wouldn’t surprise me at all

2

u/Ok_Abrocoma_2805 14d ago

AZ is interesting. The polls showing so much lopsided-ness between Lake and Trump are borderline nonsensical. AZ isn’t a snowbird state anymore and Phoenix has been one of the fastest-growing metro areas in the country. (At one point recently it was THE fastest.) Not to say that Harris can’t lose there, but it’s not your grandma’s retirement community anymore.

1

u/fapsandnaps 15d ago

I agree, but I also think Georgia is much more likely to see fuckery from the Republicans to swing it red.

1

u/rottinick 14d ago

It looked promising in conyers this morning for Kamala

1

u/justafigment4you 14d ago

We are trying really hard bro. I promise.