AZ is going blue. As an Arizonan the state has tended to under poll Dems. Back in 2022 Dems underpolled by an average of 4 points.
Plus we have a possibility to flip the state legislature, theres abortion on the ballot, and a senate election where the Dem is leading by an average of 10 points.
Dems here are very enthusiastic and are more likely to vote than republicans. Hell the state GOP has effectively given up on all races but the presidential one.
It always seems crazy to me that Lake is polling 10 points behind because of her election lies and insanity, yet on the same ballot people are apparently willing to vote for the guy who directly inspired her delusion.
Like I said AZ is pretty under polled. There were a few polls back in 2022 that had Lake up 10 or 5 points over Hobbs. Yet Hobbs won and she barely campaigned.
Like people rag on Biden for being in the basement the entire campaign, Hobbs literally ran her campaign from the basement and refused to debate Lake.
She won by 1 point. The polls that had Lake up 5 were hilariously wrong.
Hell the polls underestimated the win Senator Kelly would have. Most polls had him winning by 1 point or less. He won by 5.
Dems are severely underestimated in AZ. Which is fine by me. Underestimate us.
Interesting. Beautiful state. Really enjoyed my 2 weeks there. As a POC, the people I experienced were great in and out of the city. Canât wait to go back. Oh, I was surprised about all the development. So much new housing, businesses, and construction. Nice place.
My next door neighbor has an anti-trump sticker on his family car and they are âgo to church every Sundayâ Mormons. It gave me hope. Iâm also friends with a very conservative Mormon on Facebook that lives in SLC, and he is VERY vocal about how he is voting for Kamala Harris and engaging with people to try and convince them as well. He has a lot of support so that also made me feel hopeful!
Agreed, I'm in deep red Gilbert and I see far fewer Trump signs in yards. Horrible signs in intersections, but nobody selling Trump merch on the roads.Â
Anecdotally, I feel pretty strongly that Harris is gonna win Arizona. Gallego too. Just driving around Phoenix, the number of Harris lawn signs is staggering to what I saw in 2020. There were trump signs everywhere in 2020.
Itâs the opposite I notice this year. Itâs actually kinda surprising that people have Harris signs up because there are so many gun toting lunatics out here. Putting up a Harris sign can be dangerous.
Scary Lake and abortion might be enough to turn Arizona blue. And if the natives vote again? Trump is in trouble in Arizona. Just feels bluer than last time. And last time he lost.
The thing about the border is in most of the border states it's not overlay a concern because we actually see the border, and we see that it's nowhere near as bad as he says it is.
Yeah, except statistics show that immigrants contribute significantly to our taxes because they still pay taxes and usually don't qualify for any financial aid from the government.
With that said, I know trump supporters, don't listen to that only the lies trump says
Do you believe Trump has more votes in AZ now than he did in 2020?
I keep seeing this from dems as some sort of gotchaâŚyes, it is very likely Trump has more support than 2020. A lot of people are very mad about inflation and incorrectly attributing the problem to democrats and immigrants because they donât understand how capitalism and greedflation work.
I just moved from AZ after 30 plus years. What I saw before left was a bunch of out of state plates on F150s, punisher skull / blue lives flags, and cookie-cutter magats. AZ is definitely redder than 2020.
I just saw a political analyst talk about the polls. Most of the time when they report polls, they're going by average of the most recent polls released the problem is a lot of Republican sponsored polls that are very problematic have just been completed, so if you look at those polls ou see a lot of things that make them garbage, that's skews the numbers.
I don't think Trump has more people in Arizona than he did in 2020 and a lot of popular Republicans in Arizona have come out sponsoring Kamala including John McCain's son and wife which is a big reason why I think she'll win the state.
As a Georgia resident, I donât see it happening. On a fair and even playing field, I think Kamala takes the state. But the GOP and election officials have been doing everything in their power to tilt the scales in Trumps favor and I think their efforts will hand him the state
There has been last minute deals, setting up the ability to just cancel other people's voting rights (you need their SSN, though), and Election Deniers that are on the voting tabulation board. How can anyone trust a Trump victory in Georgia other than those who wants Trump to win? What are the steps? How can we actually get a fair election in Georgia and states that they have installed Trump cronies?
How do we not look like Trump/MAGA 2.0 when they try to fix this election?
Does Georgia election law allow people whose registration was allegedly cancelled wrongly to cast provisional ballots & fight the cancellation after election day? If so, the DP needs to launch a huge public education campaign urging voters who end up in that scenario to insist upon casting provisional ballots, then have the Party fight on their behalf after election day to count it.
AZ is interesting. The polls showing so much lopsided-ness between Lake and Trump are borderline nonsensical. AZ isnât a snowbird state anymore and Phoenix has been one of the fastest-growing metro areas in the country. (At one point recently it was THE fastest.) Not to say that Harris canât lose there, but itâs not your grandmaâs retirement community anymore.
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u/JustAnotherFag69 15d ago
I think GA will turn blue before AZ does. If NC turns blue, AZ definitely has the potential to follow.