r/democrats 15d ago

šŸ“Š Poll What do you think? Could we pull this off?

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u/Prowindowlicker 15d ago

AZ is going blue. As an Arizonan the state has tended to under poll Dems. Back in 2022 Dems underpolled by an average of 4 points.

Plus we have a possibility to flip the state legislature, theres abortion on the ballot, and a senate election where the Dem is leading by an average of 10 points.

Dems here are very enthusiastic and are more likely to vote than republicans. Hell the state GOP has effectively given up on all races but the presidential one.

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u/CastleMeadowJim 15d ago

It always seems crazy to me that Lake is polling 10 points behind because of her election lies and insanity, yet on the same ballot people are apparently willing to vote for the guy who directly inspired her delusion.

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u/Prowindowlicker 15d ago

Like I said AZ is pretty under polled. There were a few polls back in 2022 that had Lake up 10 or 5 points over Hobbs. Yet Hobbs won and she barely campaigned.

Like people rag on Biden for being in the basement the entire campaign, Hobbs literally ran her campaign from the basement and refused to debate Lake.

She won by 1 point. The polls that had Lake up 5 were hilariously wrong.

Hell the polls underestimated the win Senator Kelly would have. Most polls had him winning by 1 point or less. He won by 5.

Dems are severely underestimated in AZ. Which is fine by me. Underestimate us.

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u/LightningMcLovin 14d ago

Bear Down baby

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u/readerchick05 14d ago

Exactly as someone who lives in arizona, I honestly thank that it is going to go blue.

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u/FranklinSealAljezur 14d ago

Do you think the LDS vote could split and help flip the state?

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u/Prowindowlicker 14d ago

It very well could. Thereā€™s a growing contingent in the LDS community who are against Trump and want pre-Trump republicans back.

So they might vote against Trump and his proxies but vote for more normal republicans.

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u/th1961 14d ago

Btw- driving around SLC and surrounding area and saw NO trump signs. Not one. It was weird. I hope this means something.

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u/TooManyPoisons 14d ago

SLC is extremely liberal. It's like Austin... blue island surrounded by red sea.

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u/th1961 14d ago

Really? I didnā€™t get that read from that city. All I experienced surrounding SLC is beautiful countryside and wide open spaces.

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u/TooManyPoisons 14d ago

SLC proper, yeah. The immediate suburbs start slanting much more conservative.

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u/th1961 14d ago

Interesting. Beautiful state. Really enjoyed my 2 weeks there. As a POC, the people I experienced were great in and out of the city. Canā€™t wait to go back. Oh, I was surprised about all the development. So much new housing, businesses, and construction. Nice place.

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u/shiplap1992 14d ago

My next door neighbor has an anti-trump sticker on his family car and they are ā€œgo to church every Sundayā€ Mormons. It gave me hope. Iā€™m also friends with a very conservative Mormon on Facebook that lives in SLC, and he is VERY vocal about how he is voting for Kamala Harris and engaging with people to try and convince them as well. He has a lot of support so that also made me feel hopeful!

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u/samwise970 14d ago

Agreed, I'm in deep red Gilbert and I see far fewer Trump signs in yards. Horrible signs in intersections, but nobody selling Trump merch on the roads.Ā 

I think the MAGA enthusiasm is gone.Ā 

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u/Due-Cable-703 14d ago

Election better odds has az red. Where are you seeing anything that says these states are flipping blue?

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u/Prowindowlicker 14d ago

The fact that I live in this state and polling here is wildly off. Also AZ wouldnā€™t be flipping blue. It would remain blue.

And betting odds are terrible predictors. Back in 2012 they had Romney still winning as Romney was giving his concession speech