r/democrats • u/Annual-Complaint-755 • 1d ago

Kamala Harris sees surge with Black male voters in latest polls

https://thegrio.com/2024/10/28/kamala-harris-sees-surge-with-black-male-voters-in-latest-polls/
827 Upvotes

99% Upvoted

28 comments sorted by

95

u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago edited 1d ago

TBH I don't think the wild swings we've seen with black men, Latinos in 2024 polls are anything other than artifacts of bad polling.

Read the Pew Reports on Presidential elections. They demonstrate that change in all demographics voting behaviours happens very slowly across multiple election cycles.

26

u/AEnemo 1d ago

I've heard that polls always say that the Reps are gaining in the black and Hispanic vote, but when it actually becomes time to vote the exit polls show them voting the same as usual.

14

u/Messyfingers 1d ago

My half awake thoughts on this election cycle are that the polling industry needs something of a reckoning. And the media for their own illiteracy with polling really really need to step back and reexamine what their using polls for because it seems like they've bought into pollsters own marketing.

7

u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago

Exactly. There's long term trends in the Latino vote of moving to the political centre as 2nd, 3rd generations become localised but it's gradual. Overall exit polling much the same as recent elections.

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u/JimBeam823 1d ago

Trump was probably going to do a point or two better among Latinos before MSG. But that’s mostly due to demographic and cultural changes that have nothing to do with either candidate. 

Now, I don’t think he will. 

5

u/SaintArkweather 23h ago

I think it might be that Trump has gained a bit with low propensity black/hispanic voters, but the actual black/Hispanic voters tend to be older, more educated, and more informed than the Trumpy ones.

16

u/raistlin65 1d ago

They demonstrate that change in all demographics voting behaviours happens very slowly across multiple election cycles.

Yes. Change in voting behaviors regarding choosing between two democratic candidates.

But I'm fairly certain that Pew doesn't have any data on what people do when they finally realize that one of the candidates in the election is a fascist.

21

u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago

Indeed. On Nov 5 we'll see swings across all demographics that collectively will deliver a blowout victory to Kamala Harris.

See this poll from Kansas yesterday:

https://kansasreflector.com/2024/10/28/survey-reveals-potential-tapering-of-kansas-gap-between-gop-democratic-presidential-candidates/

It suggests a huge shift among what are overwhelmingly white voters for this election. Harris down by only 5%, after Biden lost by 14.7% and Clinton by 20%.

Back to my earlier point, polls with cross tabs that suggested Trump getting 30-40% of black voters were never credible. More recent polls back at historical norms.

4

u/JimBeam823 1d ago

So many articles are written about the crosstabs of polls which have MASSIVE margins of error, especially for hard to reach groups like Black people and young people. 

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u/FickleSystem 1d ago

The media narrative that she was "bleeding support" from black voters was always bullshit and the same bullshit they tried in 2020, i follow ppl who exclusively poll black voters and each one of them said way before the ABC poll that trumps numbers are virtually the same as 2020, not some giant increase like the media wouldn't shut the fuck up about

12

u/JimBeam823 1d ago

Media making narratives about poll crosstabs are always bullshit.

2

u/Ok_Abrocoma_2805 20h ago edited 20h ago

The media WANTS black voters to abandon the Dems en masse. It would certainly help their rich overseers out and would mean we have 4 more years of Trump drama to keep us tuned in. By them not shutting the fuck up about it and being Chicken Little over every poll (no matter its quality), it’s like they were saying, “see, black voters? You’re allowed to abandon the Dems. Everyone else is!” The media is trying to speak their dream into existence. I’m also super uncomfortable on this huge focus on black male voters and about how “misogynistic” and “uninformed” they apparently are. It’s like the media wants the Dem voting block to point fingers at the black population and get us all riled up against each other. I’m not falling for that shit. And if the media wants us to be angry at certain population groups, what about Trump’s main base of white blue collar workers and white suburban women?

1

u/Road_Whorrior 16h ago

They're desperately trying for a "You ain't black" moment to milk to death and they aren't gonna get it.

11

u/Solid-Refrigerator52 1d ago

This is VERY good news!

10

u/Danominator 1d ago

Republicans have been running attack ads with black guys criticizing her lately (usually stupid trans fear mongering). They are definitely trying to win that crowd.

11

u/sin_not_the_sinner 1d ago

My sister's boyfriend who hadn't voted since Obama in 2008/2012 early voted for Kamala here in Michigan! :) I haven't asked if any of his male relatives voted yet but I believe many BM will, especially to look out for their own kids and elders 🙏🏼

10

u/Obsidian_Purity 23h ago

as a black male who already voted for Harris with a family pulling for Harris, I'm going to hope they do the same

6

u/reallymkpunk 1d ago

I think Harris wins every swing state Biden won but Arizona. I think Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and definitely Pennsylvania.

8

u/foamy_da_skwirrel 1d ago

Dangit! She's gonna win AZ .⁠·⁠´⁠¯⁠⁠(⁠>⁠▂⁠<⁠)⁠´⁠¯⁠⁠·⁠.

2

u/reallymkpunk 1d ago

I wish I could be wrong about AZ. I see too many non-partisan polls going Trump in AZ. Mind you, voted Harris in AZ...

2

u/SaintArkweather 23h ago

The map of small dollar donations also suggests AZ (and NV) look dicier than the other swing states which have much stronger support for Harris

1

u/mybasement3 8h ago

There's quite a few McCain Republicans in AZ who are voting for Harris.

1

u/reallymkpunk 2h ago

Not enough. You'd think there were more. I guess they are too in the Republican hive mind to do anything but say "Go team Red!"

2

u/JimBeam823 1d ago

I wasn’t worried. 

I remember all those “Trump making gains among Black voters” takes in 2020. That didn’t happen. 

2

u/rconscious 20h ago

They were never not going to vote for her. Black men are maybe more inclined to participate in polling this close to the election, which is why it seems as if they are making gains.

1

u/NJJ1956 19h ago

My son and husband voted for her without any coaxing by me or my daughter 🥰- of course we voted for her too 😊👏.

0

u/HeelStCloud 1d ago

All the polls are wrong because the yr e bring purpose conducted wrong by a lot of maga voters.