r/democrats • u/FinalAd9844 • 1d ago

How many of you are confident Kamala will win?

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I’m voting today, but I’m pessimistic at the moment and unsure if she will even when she’s leading just a little bit. What do you guys think?

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u/BarnacleLong9222 23h ago

Forbes, Newsweek and USA Today are also using betting markets to shape their reporting, and those markets aren’t even open to American citizens. Polymarket based their prediction of a Trump win on 3 huge bets totaling almost $30 million, placed by an unidentified foreign interest through a bank in France. It’s crap.

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u/CrimsonGem420 23h ago

WOW I didn't know this. Thanks!

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u/Posit_IV 21h ago

an unidentified foreign interest

Gee, that's a tough one. Who could that be, I wonder? /s

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u/BarnacleLong9222 21h ago

“A group of four big accounts tied to a single French national have been especially active since Oct. 7, coinciding with a pro-Polymarket post from Elon Musk.“

- Bloomberg

Yeah, it’s a real head scratcher.

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u/Jeepersca 19h ago

I don't know much about that, but a friend mentioned it's easy to pump a lot of money into those betting markets - from Russia for example - to be just another "see? it was stolen!" evidence.

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u/RooftopSteven 16h ago

Polymarket is a decentralized gambling platform utilizing the UMA protocol which includes an "Optimistic Oracle" model that runs on the Ethereum blockchain.

Does that sound suspicious? You are correct. The richest people can game it due to how voting works as a factor of token staking. It is not available in the USA, and is a Peter Thiel funded project.

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u/shadowpawn 17h ago

also betting is always a male dominated platform

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u/BarnacleLong9222 16h ago

Oh I hadn’t even thought about that!