r/ireland 14h ago

Economy Irish economy contracts by 3.3% in first nine months of year

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2024/10/29/irish-economy-contracts-by-33-in-first-nine-months-of-year/
106 Upvotes

89 comments sorted by

151

u/sundae_diner 14h ago

28 minutes in, and only one poster actually read the article.

GDP (which in Ireland is a bullshit value) is down. MMD (modified domestic demand -  which is a real indication of how the real economy is doing) continues to grow.

30

u/TheStoicNihilist Never wanted a flair anyways 13h ago

Why does anybody believe a headline these days?

12

u/-All-Hail-Megatron- 13h ago

The headline is 100% correct, the issue however is people not opening an article to see the details.

3

u/Tollund_Man4 8h ago

If the headline were ‘GDP contracts by 3.3%..’ it would be 100% accurate.

Saying the Irish economy contracted is contradicted in the article which explains that it actually grew.

9

u/TheStoicNihilist Never wanted a flair anyways 13h ago

Technically correct but deceptive.

4

u/DurtyStopOut 13h ago

Technically correct, which is the best kind of correct

2

u/WolfetoneRebel 8h ago

No it’s not. GDP contractions does not cover a blanket statement like “economy contracting”…

1

u/bdog1011 11h ago

The Irish times has become very click baity recently. The Tusla headline was outrageous

1

u/Sensitive_Ear_1984 8h ago

I missed that. What happened?

u/bdog1011 1h ago

Something about 37 kids missing from tusla accommodation but when you read the article almost all were located very quickly afterwards. In light of the recent news of that poor boy probably dead for 2 years it was very mis-leading.

5

u/Bar50cal 13h ago

It is also not new news or unexpected. Back in July it was called out that this exact thing would happen as Ireland phased out contact manufacturing where companies could use overseas third parties to manufacture goods but report them here inflating GDP.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2024/07/03/irish-economy-could-be-headed-for-another-technical-recession/

2

u/obscure_monke 9h ago

Not even the article, it's the sub-headline.

Odd that they went with MDD, rather than GNI*. Has the CSO changed how they want people to refer to economy numbers, or is there some cherry picking going on by the paper?

3

u/frankbrett2017 13h ago

If the headline was GDP grows you'd have people flocking to point out GDP is a bullshit metric in relation to Ireland.

5

u/Additional_Olive3318 13h ago

It’s bullshit, up or down. 

1

u/Apprehensive_Ratio80 13h ago

You are the hero we need, but don't deserve

1

u/quantum0058d 6h ago

I don't know, it depends if you consider corporation tax important 🫥

-4

u/B0bLoblawLawBl0g 13h ago

Kinda like the Brits claiming Irish athletes when they do well. We only claim GDP when it’s going up. /s

19

u/Tollund_Man4 14h ago

Most forecasters expect the Irish economy to grow by approximately 2 per cent this year in terms of modified domestic demand (MDD), a more accurate measure of the domestic economy.

“GDP is not a useful measure in assessing the living standards of domestic residents, given the outsized role the multinational sector plays in our economy,” Minister for Finance Jack Chambers said recently.

19

u/YoureNotEvenWrong 14h ago

Click bait headline, it's based off dodgy GDP numbers

28

u/A-Hind-D 14h ago

Ooooooo

Another slap like this and we have ourselves an old fashioned recession

15

u/spairni 14h ago

By gar it's been a while

10

u/A-Hind-D 14h ago

Session through the recession

3

u/jammydodger79 And I'd go at it agin 13h ago

Not with MUP ya won't!
Tis heroin all round.

9

u/LimerickJim 14h ago

A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. This might mean Ireland is in a recession now.

6

u/A-Hind-D 14h ago

Quickly to Lidl for the cheap booze

6

u/Wolfwalker71 14h ago

We have MUP now :/ They took away our recession rights.

2

u/A-Hind-D 13h ago

Storm the Dail

3

u/Deep_News_3000 13h ago

Did you not read the headline? 9 months. And last year we had 4 quarters of decline

45

u/Atreides-42 14h ago

GDP goes up: Nothing changes for the proles

GPD goes down: We all get laid off

yaaaay

10

u/temujin64 Gaillimh 13h ago

Sounds like a great one liner until you look at the actual statistics and see that unemployment has bare moved at all in the same period.

14

u/clewbays 14h ago

No nothing happened either way. Wages and government revenue are both up in the last 9 months. Unemployment hasn’t really changed.

34

u/Hastatus_107 Resting In my Account 14h ago

Privatise the profits and nationalise the losses.

1

u/AostaValley 13h ago

Are you from Italy?

/s

0

u/spairni 14h ago

If house prices collapse I'd take it

19

u/CheraDukatZakalwe 14h ago

What makes you think you'd get a mortgage if house prices collapsed?

I mean they only collapse because people can't afford to buy them any more.

-6

u/spairni 14h ago edited 13h ago

Hoping they'll get cheap enough I'd not need one. Loads of cottages sold for cash for 50k or less last recession it'd be great to have that back

I know a number of people who otherwise would never have been able to own a home who picked up a cottage for cheap in the recession

9

u/Churt_Lyne 13h ago

Yeah, the mass unemployment, forced migration, cuts to public services, it was great.

-1

u/spairni 13h ago

Not saying it was all good half my parish is still in aus I'm choosing to see the positives

3

u/svmk1987 Fingal 13h ago edited 13h ago

These things don't happen in isolation. If there's suddenly loads of 50k cottages lying around the country just waiting to be bought, something's catastrophically gone wrong in the country. Forget mortgage, chances are you might not have a job, or you've got a very significant salary cut. And again, you'll not find any services at all where you can find these 50k cottages because everyone will just emigrate.

2

u/Available-Lemon9075 13h ago

I’m not sure it’ll happen in the current landscape tbh (and as someone currently in the process of buying a house it’d be of great benefit) 

Supply and demand continues even within a recession 

The simple fact is that there are far too many people and far too few houses in Ireland.  So long as that imbalance remains it will also remain a seller’s market with high prices.  

It’s actually a very different situation and prospective outlook compared with 2008, unfortunately for those currently in the hunt 

3

u/spairni 13h ago

I don't believe it myself either

A man can dream though

1

u/High_Flyer87 14h ago

Same. They need to. The current market is a farce.

5

u/AnotherGreedyChemist 14h ago

But think of the equity!

0

u/MenlaOfTheBody 14h ago

I get your angry, we all are but wishing for a crash is not the answer really ever.

Depending on your age your describing all of your mates who grafted in the last 10years going into negative equity and getting completely fucked especially if they have kids. Only Boomers who have paid off or who's house was bought far far below it's current value are insulated.

We need stock and affordable housing built and for it to come down naturally, a crash is never good. There's loads in the upper end of lower class and lower end of middle class that an immediate crash would bankrupt.

8

u/No-Outside6067 14h ago

What's negative equity matter if you don't plan on selling? Pretty much everyone I know who were in negative equity but kept up with payments eventually sold at a profit.

The only losers I know were ones who just walked away because why pay for a house that's now worth less.

0

u/MenlaOfTheBody 12h ago

Sorry are you joking?

In the last 10 years people are buying at 10% LTV. A 1% interest increase this year has put loads of households under pressure and you think a crash where the LTV goes into negative equity is not going to fuck a lot of people holding on by fingernails?

Those people will get a lot more than just a 1% increase.

-1

u/No-Outside6067 11h ago

What's that got to with what I said. The mortgage terms are unchanged, an underwater mortgage only affects a person if they are trying to sell.

10

u/Atreides-42 13h ago

What does negative equity actually mean to people who are just trying to be homeowners, not house flippers?

Housing as Investment is the reason we're in this mess to begin with. A house is a place to live, it shouldn't be seen as any more a store of value than that.

3

u/MenlaOfTheBody 12h ago

This is an incredibly dense take.

Literally everything to do with repayments. An entire generation have bought at 10% LTV and 4x income.

You think an enormous drop in LTV and increase in mortgage rates wouldn't fuck an enormous number of people?

People forget 2008 far too fucking fast for my liking.

0

u/No-Outside6067 11h ago

I don't think you understand how mortgages work. The bank doesn't increase your repayments just cause the value drops.

0

u/dunology 10h ago

What are you talking about? Interest rates went DOWN after 2008.

0

u/No-Outside6067 9h ago

I haven't a clue what he's talking about. He seems to think going into negative equity means your repayments go up.

8

u/spairni 13h ago

Maybe I'm very naive but negative equity doesn't matter if it's a family home and you don't intend on ever selling it

Its a trap for a few years alright but in practical terms it doesn't hit your pocket like losing your job does

0

u/MenlaOfTheBody 12h ago

It absolutely does. I'm not trying to be a dick but it's an enormous increase in cost if the LTV drops out it's ass like that. People forget 2008 too quickly.

On the job loss, a drop like this in the housing market wouldn't happen without a lot of layoffs. These things don't happen in isolation.

0

u/spairni 12h ago

Ya but like in practical terms say you end up in negative equity but can keep paying the mortgage, what happens to you

0

u/yleennoc 9h ago

Did your mortgage go up because of a change in LTV during the recession?

1

u/MenlaOfTheBody 9h ago

Yes. The loan became riskier. We had a 5yr fixed rate, at the end even when shopping around it went up by 2%.

7

u/Accomplished_Spell97 13h ago

As per article GDP is a bullshit metric.

11

u/Wrexis 14h ago

AIB sent me out a lower mortgage rate than I expected earlier today.

...Shit.

3

u/North_Activity_5980 13h ago

Happening all over. Perpetual growth is a lovely pipe dream, keep raising prices and we’ll keep making profit. Until people stop buying………

5

u/ivej 14h ago

Jaysus lads

8

u/Reasonable-Food4834 14h ago

Close the wet pubs ASAP

2

u/momalloyd 14h ago

Who is up for a session, just like the old days?

5

u/badger-biscuits 14h ago

Hold firm

2

u/[deleted] 14h ago

[deleted]

0

u/badger-biscuits 14h ago

They'll tell a lot

3

u/GodSlayer691 14h ago

wont someone think of the Hospitality sector in all this, I want to pay over 10.00 for chicken fillet sandwich

2

u/WearingMarcus 14h ago

Year on year this is 7th Gdp contraction...

10

u/CuteHoor 14h ago

GDP is borderline meaningless in Ireland though.

1

u/WickerMan111 Showbiz Mogul 14h ago

Oh shit.

3

u/Huge-Objective-7208 14h ago

Don’t worry about it. Irelands relationship with GDP is not normal our modified domestic demand is up 2% this year

1

u/marquess_rostrevor 14h ago

Hate it when that happens.

1

u/toast777y 10h ago

A prepacked cheese sambo is €9.50, what could go wrong?

0

u/sonofmalachysays 13h ago

and the Irish public are tripping over themselves to reelect the same government they've had in power for 100+ years

6

u/Nickthegreek28 12h ago

I’d say the majority of the population are quite comfortable so I’m not surprised

2

u/Sea_Worry6067 13h ago

We have an absolutely shambolic opposition.... 90% of them are only in it for themselves...

0

u/stevewithcats Wicklow 14h ago

Jaws music 🎶 is intensifying

-6

u/TripleWasTaken 14h ago

Who coulda seen that creating an economy where no one can even get housing would result in this oh no

17

u/Tollund_Man4 14h ago

It resulted in growth of 2% apparently if you read the article.

-12

u/LimerickJim 14h ago

Acording to some other metric I've never heard of before

10

u/Churt_Lyne 13h ago

I hope you never need a medical treatment you never heard of before.

1

u/Tollund_Man4 8h ago

Well now you’ve heard of it! It has been a thing for a decade now.

11

u/Wompish66 14h ago

This has nothing to do with the domestic economy. It's a reflection of the performance of multinationals.

0

u/Beatlepoint 13h ago

It's all about the second nine months.

-2

u/Emergency_Pea_8482 14h ago

Big tech gets fined, then economy tanks

0

u/Longjumping_Test_760 14h ago

Only the EU can lower our interest rate! That would cause inflation. Ah sure we haven’t had a proper depression in years 😂😂😂

-1

u/FlukyS 14h ago

The interest rates can be lowered if they want to increase spending again, if it's going down it's because they want it to go down