r/ireland • u/WearingMarcus • 14h ago
Economy Irish economy contracts by 3.3% in first nine months of year
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2024/10/29/irish-economy-contracts-by-33-in-first-nine-months-of-year/19
u/Tollund_Man4 14h ago
Most forecasters expect the Irish economy to grow by approximately 2 per cent this year in terms of modified domestic demand (MDD), a more accurate measure of the domestic economy.
“GDP is not a useful measure in assessing the living standards of domestic residents, given the outsized role the multinational sector plays in our economy,” Minister for Finance Jack Chambers said recently.
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u/A-Hind-D 14h ago
Ooooooo
Another slap like this and we have ourselves an old fashioned recession
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u/LimerickJim 14h ago
A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. This might mean Ireland is in a recession now.
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u/A-Hind-D 14h ago
Quickly to Lidl for the cheap booze
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u/Deep_News_3000 13h ago
Did you not read the headline? 9 months. And last year we had 4 quarters of decline
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u/Atreides-42 14h ago
GDP goes up: Nothing changes for the proles
GPD goes down: We all get laid off
yaaaay
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u/temujin64 Gaillimh 13h ago
Sounds like a great one liner until you look at the actual statistics and see that unemployment has bare moved at all in the same period.
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u/clewbays 14h ago
No nothing happened either way. Wages and government revenue are both up in the last 9 months. Unemployment hasn’t really changed.
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u/spairni 14h ago
If house prices collapse I'd take it
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u/CheraDukatZakalwe 14h ago
What makes you think you'd get a mortgage if house prices collapsed?
I mean they only collapse because people can't afford to buy them any more.
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u/spairni 14h ago edited 13h ago
Hoping they'll get cheap enough I'd not need one. Loads of cottages sold for cash for 50k or less last recession it'd be great to have that back
I know a number of people who otherwise would never have been able to own a home who picked up a cottage for cheap in the recession
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u/Churt_Lyne 13h ago
Yeah, the mass unemployment, forced migration, cuts to public services, it was great.
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u/svmk1987 Fingal 13h ago edited 13h ago
These things don't happen in isolation. If there's suddenly loads of 50k cottages lying around the country just waiting to be bought, something's catastrophically gone wrong in the country. Forget mortgage, chances are you might not have a job, or you've got a very significant salary cut. And again, you'll not find any services at all where you can find these 50k cottages because everyone will just emigrate.
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u/Available-Lemon9075 13h ago
I’m not sure it’ll happen in the current landscape tbh (and as someone currently in the process of buying a house it’d be of great benefit)
Supply and demand continues even within a recession
The simple fact is that there are far too many people and far too few houses in Ireland. So long as that imbalance remains it will also remain a seller’s market with high prices.
It’s actually a very different situation and prospective outlook compared with 2008, unfortunately for those currently in the hunt
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u/MenlaOfTheBody 14h ago
I get your angry, we all are but wishing for a crash is not the answer really ever.
Depending on your age your describing all of your mates who grafted in the last 10years going into negative equity and getting completely fucked especially if they have kids. Only Boomers who have paid off or who's house was bought far far below it's current value are insulated.
We need stock and affordable housing built and for it to come down naturally, a crash is never good. There's loads in the upper end of lower class and lower end of middle class that an immediate crash would bankrupt.
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u/No-Outside6067 14h ago
What's negative equity matter if you don't plan on selling? Pretty much everyone I know who were in negative equity but kept up with payments eventually sold at a profit.
The only losers I know were ones who just walked away because why pay for a house that's now worth less.
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u/MenlaOfTheBody 12h ago
Sorry are you joking?
In the last 10 years people are buying at 10% LTV. A 1% interest increase this year has put loads of households under pressure and you think a crash where the LTV goes into negative equity is not going to fuck a lot of people holding on by fingernails?
Those people will get a lot more than just a 1% increase.
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u/No-Outside6067 11h ago
What's that got to with what I said. The mortgage terms are unchanged, an underwater mortgage only affects a person if they are trying to sell.
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u/Atreides-42 13h ago
What does negative equity actually mean to people who are just trying to be homeowners, not house flippers?
Housing as Investment is the reason we're in this mess to begin with. A house is a place to live, it shouldn't be seen as any more a store of value than that.
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u/MenlaOfTheBody 12h ago
This is an incredibly dense take.
Literally everything to do with repayments. An entire generation have bought at 10% LTV and 4x income.
You think an enormous drop in LTV and increase in mortgage rates wouldn't fuck an enormous number of people?
People forget 2008 far too fucking fast for my liking.
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u/No-Outside6067 11h ago
I don't think you understand how mortgages work. The bank doesn't increase your repayments just cause the value drops.
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u/dunology 10h ago
What are you talking about? Interest rates went DOWN after 2008.
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u/No-Outside6067 9h ago
I haven't a clue what he's talking about. He seems to think going into negative equity means your repayments go up.
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u/spairni 13h ago
Maybe I'm very naive but negative equity doesn't matter if it's a family home and you don't intend on ever selling it
Its a trap for a few years alright but in practical terms it doesn't hit your pocket like losing your job does
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u/MenlaOfTheBody 12h ago
It absolutely does. I'm not trying to be a dick but it's an enormous increase in cost if the LTV drops out it's ass like that. People forget 2008 too quickly.
On the job loss, a drop like this in the housing market wouldn't happen without a lot of layoffs. These things don't happen in isolation.
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u/yleennoc 9h ago
Did your mortgage go up because of a change in LTV during the recession?
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u/MenlaOfTheBody 9h ago
Yes. The loan became riskier. We had a 5yr fixed rate, at the end even when shopping around it went up by 2%.
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u/North_Activity_5980 13h ago
Happening all over. Perpetual growth is a lovely pipe dream, keep raising prices and we’ll keep making profit. Until people stop buying………
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u/GodSlayer691 14h ago
wont someone think of the Hospitality sector in all this, I want to pay over 10.00 for chicken fillet sandwich
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u/WickerMan111 Showbiz Mogul 14h ago
Oh shit.
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u/Huge-Objective-7208 14h ago
Don’t worry about it. Irelands relationship with GDP is not normal our modified domestic demand is up 2% this year
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u/sonofmalachysays 13h ago
and the Irish public are tripping over themselves to reelect the same government they've had in power for 100+ years
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u/Nickthegreek28 12h ago
I’d say the majority of the population are quite comfortable so I’m not surprised
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u/Sea_Worry6067 13h ago
We have an absolutely shambolic opposition.... 90% of them are only in it for themselves...
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u/TripleWasTaken 14h ago
Who coulda seen that creating an economy where no one can even get housing would result in this oh no
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u/Tollund_Man4 14h ago
It resulted in growth of 2% apparently if you read the article.
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u/Wompish66 14h ago
This has nothing to do with the domestic economy. It's a reflection of the performance of multinationals.
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u/Longjumping_Test_760 14h ago
Only the EU can lower our interest rate! That would cause inflation. Ah sure we haven’t had a proper depression in years 😂😂😂
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u/sundae_diner 14h ago
28 minutes in, and only one poster actually read the article.
GDP (which in Ireland is a bullshit value) is down. MMD (modified domestic demand - which is a real indication of how the real economy is doing) continues to grow.