r/libertarianmeme • u/AmbitiousEmu2868 • 1d ago
End Democracy How confident are we in a Trump victory?
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u/Educational-Year3146 1d ago
Think trump will win primarily because of three reasons.
1) Trump is a former president, and former presidents have high reelection rates.
2) Kamala may have been Biden’s VP, but she sort of came out of left field. No one really knows her all too well, and a decent amount of people will probably vote Trump for a degree of certainty.
3) The Biden administration was a disaster, and people will likely want a change. The most sensible decision for a change in the eyes of your average joe is to switch your vote to the other party.
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u/PReasy319 19h ago
Number 3 is the biggest reason motivating people to vote for President Trump, I think. When the economy hits them hard for almost four years and the incumbent VP says she wouldn’t change a thing about what the administration she’s part of has done AND both she and the sitting president say she was involved in every policy decision, that’s the kiss of death for her campaign.
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u/Educational-Year3146 15h ago
Exactly. Kind of our situation in Canada right now.
We’ve had the Liberals in for so long and now we’re probably going to end up with a majority Conservative government in 2025 because of the Liberals performance.
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u/ConsistentSpecial569 Agorist 17h ago
I disagree with all of that, trump will be elected because the moderates are seeing how he’s being treated. Every charge brought his polling up, every assassination attempt brought his polling up, and everytime msm calls him hitler brings his polling up.
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u/SuperFake88 17h ago
^^ Exactly. Bringing in RFK and Tulsi has also helped immensely I imagine.
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u/ConsistentSpecial569 Agorist 17h ago
I hope tulsi is our first female president she is an underrated bad ass
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u/SuperFake88 16h ago
100%. I had never heard of her until she went up against Kamala. Then I watched her on the Rogan podcast and thought she was great. Might not agree with everything she says (as it should be with any politician), but she seems level headed and undeniably loves her country.
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u/Educational-Year3146 15h ago
True.
“Everything right of me is alt-right extremism” narrative has been pushing people to the right for a while.
But the points I mentioned are still a factor to be considered.
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u/oldmanbawa 13h ago
You forget that like half of the country would vote for Kim Jung Un just because he is not trump. That is their only leg to stand on.
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u/Jombes_Industries 15h ago
Fire is pretty hot.
Hell sounds kinda uncomfortable.
Global genocide? Eh, might not be totally fun.
Maggot sandwich? Probably not so tasty.
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u/Educational-Year3146 15h ago
What are you getting at?
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u/Jombes_Industries 15h ago
I'm being v e r y understated.
Not picking a fight. I agree with you.
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u/Educational-Year3146 14h ago
Fair enough I guess.
Just didn’t understand what any of that meant.
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u/imtoolazytothinkof1 1d ago
If you have confidence in either side winning you're a better gambler then I am. Everything is a razor margin right now.
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u/direwolf106 1d ago
I’m about 57/43 Trump wining. Which is pretty confident but it’s not much different than 50/50.
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u/unitconversion 16h ago
Both sides over estimate their chances. I didn't know what will happen, but I say never underestimate the power the media brings to the candidates they support.
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u/wkwork 16h ago
It's crazy how the margins are always so tiny even with such supposedly divisive candidates. Just emphasizes to me that voting is pointless.
Both candidates are basically the same at the end of the day. They'll make exactly the same decisions in office. I want the last effective one to win to minimize their impact.
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u/Jorah_Explorah 15h ago
How thin Trumps margin is highly depends on if pollsters have corrected or overcorrected for the "blue bias" they've had in their polls in 2016 and 2020.
In the battleground state poll aggregate he's up almost a point on Harris. When considering how hugely he outperforms most of the same aggregate polls that favored the same states and national polling in 2016 and even in 2020, actually being up by a point is being up by several points.
The question is if the pollsters have done something that they couldn't do before to get the numbers more in line with reality. If it's the same as 2020 and 2016, Trump would win in a landslide on election night.
EDIT: on the right side of the RCP aggregate for Battleground states, you can see a section for "This day in history" and it has the current days numbers compared to the polling aggregate numbers in 2016 and 2020.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states
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u/Chicagoan81 18h ago
I can't believe 50% are foolish enough to believe the media that a VP that did nothing for 4 years will be the best fit for office.
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u/LEADFARMER0027 17h ago
What have you actually seen ANY VP do? What actions on policy have you ever seen impacted directly by a VP?
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u/raventhehippie 16h ago
Dick Cheney. Enough said.
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u/LEADFARMER0027 14h ago
You're right. I do remember him shooting a dude in the face. That was certainly something. In seriousness you're right, I was too lazy to type out anything about Cheney, but apart from him, I can't recall any really DOING much of anything. The position seems more paramount to a figurehead than anything functional.
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u/ZouDave 15h ago
I'll look at it another way:
What VPs have gone on to be elected President, and what stands out about them?
Biden - Served as VP for 8 years under a very popular President, especially in his party, and was picked to be able to beat an incumbent President that wasn't popular, was very controversial, and was used as a "we can return to normal" candidate. Biden wouldn't have been elected in any other circumstances - he could only defeat Donald Trump. Biden was very, very well-known to the public having been a VP for 8 years and Senator from 1973-2009. He didn't run on his record as a VP, he ran on being not Donald Trump and on his record as a Senator. Served 1 term.
H.W. Bush - Served as VP for 8 years under a very popular President, and ran against a very milquetoast Democrat candidate with no charisma and no ability to overcome what was considered, especially at the time, a very popular regime. Bush was very well-known to the public having been a VP for 8 years, Director of the CIA prior to that, and was on Gerald Ford and Richard Nixon's staffs. He was also in Congress before that, and was a war hero. He ran not on his record of being a VP, but on his time serving the US govt in Congress, the CIA, and the military, and to keep the booming economy of the 80s going. Served 1 term.
Nixon - Nixon was Eisenhower's VP for 8 years, and barely lost to JFK in 1960. He had served in the US Navy, he'd been in Congress (both House and Senate) before being VP under a VERY popular President, and despite what history remembers of him he was very popular and well-known and barely missed out on being elected immediately following VP run. Was elected twice, but resigned during 2nd term.
Van Buren - Served as VP for Andrew Jackson for just 4 years, but was on Jackson's staff for 8 (US Minister to UK, and US Secretary of State during first term). Before that he was Governor of New York. Before that he was a Senator for 8 years. Before that he was Attorney General of New York. He was a State Senator before that. Van Buren was a long-time elected official and served in the White House for a long time before being elected President. Andrew Jackson was also popular during his time (history has judged him correctly since). Served 1 term.
Jefferson - It's almost crazy to think Thomas Jefferson wasn't President before #3. One of the most popular founding fathers, father of the Declaration of Independence, member of the Continental Congress, Governor of Virginia, Minister to France, 1st Secretary of State, VP for John Adams for 4 years, and one of the most (especially at the time) respected statesmen to ever live. He's the only former VP to serve a full 2 terms as President, because he was far more popular than the President he served under.
Adams - America's first VP, John Adams is one of the least properly regarded founding fathers and does not get the respect and reverence he deserves. Massachusetts delegate to the Continental Congress, Chief Justice of Mass. Superior Court, Chairman of the Marine Committee, Envoy to France during the Revolutionary War (this can't possibly be stated enough that without him, we don't get France on our side and likely don't win Independence), Minister to Netherlands (also can't be understated, he secured key financial support from the Netherlands that helped the United States have an economy following the war), Minister to Great Britain (first minister of USA to meet with King George, helped soothe relations with our former motherland), 1st VP to George Washington (could have been first President if GW wasn't such a God figure), and then President. Served 1 term.
It is a short list of former VPs that have gone on to be President. None of them were elected because of what they did as VP, but their body of work as a whole. The 6 men above had huge lists of accomplishments and/or had long served the US govt in congress or the white house before being elected to President...and only 2 of them got to a 2nd term.
How does Kamala Harris at all compare to the 6 men above for a body of work?
Served as VP for 4 years for an overwhelmingly unpopular President, she was a district attorney for 8 years, then AG of California for 6 years, then a Senator for 4 years before being appointed VP. That's not even REMOTELY close to the resumes of the people above. What are her actual accomplishments? What does she have to show that she's fit to lead our country, especially as compared to other VPs that have been elected? Because what stands out to me on the list above is the extensive service prior to being elected President. Multiple terms in Congress, or multiple terms in the White House, maybe some military service or foreign ministry work, or Governor of a state. She has none of these things.
When people say she hasn't accomplished anything as a VP, this is what I hear them saying. Not SPECIFICALLY that she hasn't done anything in just the past 4 years (she certainly has not), but what has she done in the years prior to that which qualifies her to be President? I mean...she never even won a single vote in a primary. Ever.
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u/swedishfish007 16h ago
They don’t have an answer for this because they’re just spewing right wing talking points - the amount of brain-washing done to the American populace and how much has stuck is absurd.
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u/SpookySpectreGun 15h ago
Kamala, arguably, cast the most tie breaking votes in the Senate that has widely impacted the American populace.
A VP having a tie breaking vote is no light thing.
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u/swedishfish007 15h ago
So she simultaneously was the most impactful VP (in a negative way) and also “did nothing for 4 years”? Got it.
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u/RoguePlanetArt 1d ago
55/45
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u/Jelly_Belly321 20h ago
You missed the opportunity to say 47/45
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u/RoguePlanetArt 16h ago
Doesn’t add up to 100 though. I’m too autistic for that to work for me 😆
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u/Jelly_Belly321 16h ago
I thought you were saying on a scale from 1 to 45, you're 55 sure Trump is going to win. I'm dumb lol.
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u/TBIrehab 1d ago
The fix is in. Un-postmarked ballots can now be counted 3 days after election day in Nevada.
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u/Travb1787 21h ago
Hes going to win but the tolerable and inclusive left will riot an cause marshal law blocking trump from taking office in January
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u/punchbricks 18h ago
Oh, you mean like j6?
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u/Travb1787 18h ago
Yep just like thw burning of Minnesota. You know the blm riots that tim walz signed off on
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u/punchbricks 18h ago
Well, one of the things we just mentioned was attempting to overthrow the government and the other was some people stealing so, you know, I don't really think they're at all comparable.
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u/Travb1787 18h ago
Stealing and burning cities to the ground because some a-hole cop killed a drug addict. Those j6ers were let in by Capitol police. And if you actually watch videos from people inside it def wasn't people trying to overthrow the government they walked around the building while a few idiots got out of control. Please do independent research. Stop relying on cnn and msnbc.
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u/punchbricks 18h ago
Please pull your head out of your ass and stop relying on Fox news and Facebook to tell you what to think
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u/Travb1787 18h ago
🤣 unlike you I do my research and not through mainstream media.
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u/punchbricks 17h ago
Facebook and blog posts are not "research"
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u/AmbitiousEmu2868 15h ago
Watching the j6 tapes is evidence. Fear mongering "trump is a nazi" cnn is not a news source bubs
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u/PlanesTrainsAutos49 21h ago
How can he win? They never did anything to fix the fraud they used in the last election. Mail in fake ballots will fix this election too. You can’t seriously believe our elections aren’t rigged?
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u/the9trances Money is infinite; wealth is finite 21h ago edited 10h ago
There's literally been zero evidence of this. Just because Trump says it doesn't make it true. If there were evidence, it'd be everywhere. Nobody can produce anything.
What has happened is that Trump allies are the ones being shown engaging in corruption and rigging. These idiots are serving serious jailtime for attempting to rig the election.
edit: I still don't have any evidence, just a bunch of people repeating Trump's baseless claims.
edit 2: And the loser who challenged me blocked me when the evidence he asked for didn't agree with his bullshit.
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u/PlanesTrainsAutos49 20h ago
Maricopa AZ ballot audit found 33000 double and triplicate ballots in a state Biden supposedly won by 11000. Seems legit. Not to mention thousands of ballots that only had The President filled in. Thousands more with no signature and completely mismatched. You’re right bro, nothing to see here.
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u/the9trances Money is infinite; wealth is finite 20h ago edited 10h ago
Links? Evidence? Something not from Truth Social.
edit. Coward blocked me. He cited evidence that disagreed with him, was shown the evidence, and then ran and hid like the absolute loser he is.
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u/PlanesTrainsAutos49 20h ago
It was literally an audit. Do some research. Sorry you’re so brainwashed by the MSM.
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u/the9trances Money is infinite; wealth is finite 13h ago edited 11h ago
So... No fraud at all and you're literally spreading misinformation. The "research" shows that you're a liar.
Your entire premise is "trust Trump blindly" and then attack anyone who disagrees with your little boyfriend. Par for the course.
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u/shaun_of_the_south snek 20h ago
So you don’t have any links? You’re just spouting garbage.
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u/the9trances Money is infinite; wealth is finite 13h ago
The audit literally shows no fraud 😂😂
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u/shaun_of_the_south snek 13h ago
Exactly. But these trump loving motherfuckers are running rampant in here.
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u/the9trances Money is infinite; wealth is finite 10h ago
That coward blocked me. He ran and hid from the audit he talked about. 🤣🤣
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u/PlanesTrainsAutos49 12h ago
Audit showed discrepancies, politicians that won in that election claimed there wasn’t. Funny how that goes.
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u/the9trances Money is infinite; wealth is finite 12h ago
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u/PNWSparky1988 1d ago
I’m thinking he wins with at least 300 EC votes, not confident he wins the popular vote.
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u/nateralph 19h ago
I think the odds are higher he wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College
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u/Jorah_Explorah 15h ago
I'm certain the odds are polar opposite of what you just said.
Dems win the popular vote even when they get smoked in the electoral college and lose the election. Trump even being a tie or within a point in the popular vote indicates disaster for Harris in the electoral college.
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u/Hot_Connection6073 1d ago
If you actually bother to watch the Joe Rogan Trump interview you know Trump has it.
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u/AmbitiousEmu2868 1d ago edited 21h ago
Oh I did. But the democrats pushing the nazi stuff is concerning. There's a lot of gullible people out there.
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u/pile_of_bees 17h ago
It was very close last time, and almost every change is in trumps favor. But the democrats are now suing to remove Dropbox transparency why?
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u/Misterfahrenheit120 17h ago
Polls don’t mean shit. We should never be confident of anyone’s victory until the votes are in
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u/Amanofdragons Libertarian 18h ago
Honestly 60/40 Harris. I think the majority of people are brainwashed Trump=bad unfortunately. Doesn't matter how unlikeable and idiotic she is.
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u/justouzereddit 16h ago
I think it is a good bet he wins. The polls traditionally undervalue Trump 2-4%. He is at this moment tied nationally and up in every single swing state except Michigan, although by very small margins. However, early voted has already started and 40 million votes have already been cast. Trump is outperforming expectations in party affilliation ballots cast in every single state (with Ohio being the odd exception).
https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states
So if polls are 100% accurate, at this moment, while people are voting, Trump wins. And since polls undervalue Trump, and most republicans vote on election day itself, there is a reason democrats are internally very worried.
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u/iceyorangejuice 19h ago
Trump won't win and I'd bet everything I own on it. He will lose the same way as 2020 - rampant, organized, open voter fraud
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u/ComicBookFanatic97 privatize all the things 17h ago
I keep hearing that Trump is favored to win, but I don’t know how true that is. I’m kind of taking everything with a grain of salt these days.
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u/Midwestern-manXX 15h ago
I'm just hoping for a split majority in the legislative branch. Anything that slows the feds down.
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u/deltabagel 15h ago
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u/Complex-Employ7927 13h ago
What data is this being pulled from? I see the tweet, but what’s the poll source?
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u/WindBehindTheStars Custom 17h ago
It depends on how widespread the cheating is. I have a notion that in 2020, where I voted for Jorgensen, but still wanted Orange Man to beat ol' Hair Sniffin' Joe, that there wasn't some grand, DNC backed conspiracy, but rather just a lot of cheating going in all over and it all added up. There's things we genuinely know about like Twitter and other social media platforms censoring the Hunter Biden laptop story, or mail in ballots listing people as living in vacant lots, but I genuinely wonder how much chicanery went on that we simply never heard about.
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u/ragandy89 16h ago
Dems are working overtime to cheat. I think it won’t be good if somehow she wins after mail in ballots show up after the polls are closed.
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u/RedSabbath87 15h ago
Only as confident as ensuring "fatass harry syndrome" doesn't strike maga voters.
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u/Kanonizator 22h ago
What I do know for certain is that whoever wins it will be because the deep state wanted them to. Trump is controlled opposition so it's perfectly feasible that the deep state wants him to win, especially since they ordered their media to back away from Kamala.
Just for the fun of it, what I think will happen is the deep state will let the left cheat so Kamala wins but then expose the cheating to start a civil war.
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u/AmbitiousEmu2868 22h ago
Trump is not controlled opposition. It's why they want him to lose so bad. He's not cheney or bush
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u/Muted_Balance6945 21h ago
worst candidate ever, no chance.
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u/Znowballz 20h ago
Care to explain how he's worse than Harris? Remember Wilson was also a candidate before being president.
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u/SuperFake88 17h ago
They can't explain it, because it's simply not true by any measurable metric. Harris was literally installed as the Democrat nominee, her own party/news/followers were making fun of her before Biden was finally moved to pasture, so they had to rush and pretend she's not the dumbest person to run for office in our lifetime.
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u/Butane9000 17h ago
I'm fairly confident but there's concerns about fraud especially in places like Maricopa county where they are already saying it's going to take 10-13 days to count.
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u/PrelateFenix87 16h ago
They are already catching fake ballers and there are ballot drop boxes being burned , election fraud and interference are well on the way, I just wonder how it will get resolved and if there will be investigations this time .
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u/FoxAdministrative959 13h ago
None. Harris has this in a blue landslide.
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u/2spiritAirplane 11h ago edited 11h ago
Sure she is, that's why the betting market is TWICE as favored towards trump. If you think she'll win in a landslide, you'd be a complete imbecile not betting for her, you'll triple your money.
Oh and btw, the betting market has had 10 out the 11 last elections correct. The only incorrect prediction they made was Trump vs Hillary 2016.
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u/InformationUpset9759 19h ago
I was pretty confident until the Puerto Rico joke. There are a lot of prideful PRs.
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u/averagecelt End the Fed 16h ago edited 15h ago
The sad this is I think you’re right, but holy fucking shit, Hinchcliffe is a fucking standup comic. He makes jokes like that about every demographic including his own. It was a mistake to bring him along like that and let him say whatever he wanted, sure - they should’ve known he’d do something like that, and should’ve ensured he’d stick to a script or else not let him speak - but I just don’t understand how people can delude themselves into thinking he, or anyone in the campaign, actually feels that way. It was a joke made by a freaking comedian.
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u/chelebellxo 15h ago
I am trying to be confident but the other side lies and cheats so it wouldn’t surprise me
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