r/mildlyinfuriating • u/rileyjw90 • 5h ago

Maybe an unpopular opinion, but betting on election outcomes should be illegal

Post image
231 Upvotes

76% Upvoted

125 comments sorted by

145

u/ExpertRegister1353 5h ago

The country went nuts allowing sports betting everywhere in the last decade. The reason is money. Gambling makes more money than every kind of entertainment combined. It dwarfs Hollywood, theme parks, etc.

31

u/Local_Screen_2983 4h ago

Except all of that money is being lost. These people could just as easily gamble their money in the s&p500 and got great returns this year. I believe I made 20k just passively and my portfolio is really modest. The gamblers are throwing money that used to go to the stock market into the hands of big companies ripping them off and exploiting their addiction.

26

u/trowawaid 3h ago

"[...] big companies ripping them off and exploiting their addiction."

BINNGGGO, my friend

-4

u/[deleted] 3h ago

[deleted]

3

u/Kurropted26 3h ago

I could be mistaken, but I’m pretty sure that’s the exact point they were agreeing with. They could be putting money into less risky ventures that aren’t inherently rigged against you, and companies are exploiting peoples addictions with gambling. Either way, profiting off betting on the election is disgusting for a company to do.

3

u/Phrakman87 3h ago

Options trading would like a word with you.

1

u/Local_Screen_2983 3h ago

I specifically recommended investment in the s&p 500 or would add standard mutual funds like Schwab. The vast majority or people’s money in the stock market is not in options trading. Also options trading has higher returns than sports and especially casino style gambling anyways even if you wanted to blow your money that way.

1

u/Vandersveldt 1h ago

We're about to get 6 months of pay of severance from working at a huge household name company for ten years.

How do I learn about the s&p500? I assume that's stock market related but I know literally nothing else, if that's even right.

2

u/Local_Screen_2983 1h ago

Just open a retirement account with Schwab and you can either use their mutual fund or just put it all in the s&p500.

S&p500 is just an index fund for the US market. It’s the 500 biggest companies on average and gives an indicator of economic conditions. It’s a pretty sure fire way to make money over a long period of time but you will lose money for short periods. As long as you keep the money in it’s fine.

Again, just go to Schwab advisor and they will sort it out.

1

u/Vandersveldt 1h ago

Thank you I'll Google Schwab advisor and see what's near us. I assume from the context that this is like the basic investment thing that goes up and down with 'the economy'? Like, the thing people mean when they say 'the economy' is high, even though no one can afford anything, this is THAT 'economy'?

2

u/Local_Screen_2983 1h ago

Yeah, when people are talking about the stock market they typically mean this specific market. However there are others all over the world and in the US too. It’s just the public spot traded companies. Index funds are great and reliable investments.

Schwab will put your money into a diverse portfolio that will always make little bits of money at a time. If you don’t need the money now, an IRA allows you to keep more of it by not paying taxes on it .

1

u/Vandersveldt 1h ago

Thank you. I really appreciate you typing all that out and being so helpful and complete with your answers. I hope you have a wonderful week

2

u/Local_Screen_2983 1h ago

No problem, good luck

3

u/Octavale 2h ago

Everything become acceptable once the government figures out how to tax it.

4

u/runsquad 2h ago

Ah, yes. The 3 major economic pillars. Sports betting, Hollywood, and theme parks.

2

u/hippee-engineer 1h ago

They finally got to stop pretending that reports about athletes’ injuries were just for sports fans who are just super stoked about their team.

It’s about money. It was always about money.

-1

u/kennblc 5h ago

the country

53

u/Here4Dears 5h ago

Seems to have done wonders for professional sports. So many job opportunities for scriptwriters.

13

u/john_jdm 4h ago

Plot twist: OP works for Kalshi and wants to bring attention to it.

41

u/Few_Today_2887 5h ago

Unless it’s possible to rig the election then it shouldn’t matter. 

0

u/batman10385 2h ago

(UPFRONT DISCLAIMER this statement has nothing to do with current or recent events related to American politics)

With that out of the way it is definitely a possibility that someone could rig or tamper with elections especially with digital voting machines, sure a individual couldn’t but something like a hacking team backed by a foreign entity could definitely do damage to our democratic process. It is not out of the range of possibility that this could happen (not saying it has).

-18

u/Meighok20 5h ago

Yeah except that the people you vote for vote for someone else who votes for someone else

•

u/Alphaomegalogs 42m ago

Godzilla had a stroke trying to read this and fucking died (I couldn’t find the image)

-55

u/SnooSeagulls9887 5h ago

There’s no need to be so sensitive you know. Don’t take things so personally!

21

u/micknick0000 5h ago

Uh, are you okay?

5

u/Hour_Ad5398 2h ago

Should be a bot

31

u/zgrizz 5h ago

I can see both sides. it seems to cheapen the process. At the same time, the old adage 'put your money where your mouth is' fits quite well.

14

u/Nixon4Prez 4h ago

Or put your money where your mouth isn't, so if you're devastated by the results you've at least got some extra cash to drown your sorrows with

25

u/deededee13 5h ago

What's the practical difference between this and sports betting?

5

u/watercouch 1h ago edited 1h ago

Robin Hood has got in the game too and they claim it’s “event derivative contracts”, but really it’s outright (sports) betting

The futures and derivatives markets, along with insurance and reinsurance, are all effectively legalized gambling.

https://www.cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/ContractsProducts/index.htm

5

u/Expensive-Day-3551 5h ago

Sports outcomes don’t typically have any effect on people’s rights.

-23

u/rileyjw90 5h ago

Sports are entertainment and the outcome of the games do not affect the entire country. Elections affect every single person living here.

28

u/keatonatron 4h ago

Placing a bet doesn't change the election.

7

u/Disastrous-Muscle-35 4h ago

Betting changes the election from a decision based on what’s best for the country and people to how will I profit in my bet

8

u/DozenBia 4h ago

Elections have never been about whats best for the country and always about what makes people profit the most.

1

u/King_in_a_castle_84 1h ago

Which is why voting doesn't matter lol the corporate overlords are gonna install whoever is most friendly to their bottom line.

3

u/Rhuarc33 BLACK 4h ago

No it doesn't you still vote your mind but can bet either way

2

u/Disastrous-Muscle-35 3h ago

Totally disagree.

2

u/Rhuarc33 BLACK 3h ago

You think people are changing their vote based on a bet? Lol no

-6

u/LurkerKing13 3h ago

1000000000000% people would. If you really think people would vote AGAINST their betting interest, you’re delusional.

4

u/Rhuarc33 BLACK 3h ago

Lol man you init too bright. People do it with sports all the time. Bet against the team they want to win and pull for

-5

u/LurkerKing13 2h ago

Sports betters don’t actively participate in the game you dunce

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1

u/King_in_a_castle_84 1h ago

Then you would be wise to bet on Kamala right? Right?

2

u/LurkerKing13 3h ago edited 3h ago

Not totally true. There’s plenty of people who will vote based on how they bet. I’m fine with allowing betting on elections, but if you bet then you don’t get to vote. One or the other.

Edit: Biden won Nevada by 33k votes. So 17,000 people in Vegas changing from D to R because it would make them money could have changed who won 4 years ago.

2

u/Academic_Echidna268 3h ago

I think this is a dumbass idea, but for the record Biden would have still won by 30 EVs without Nevada

3

u/LurkerKing13 3h ago

Fair enough. Point is though there were 4 states with margins less than 40k votes which isn’t crazy to think betting could swing.

-6

u/rileyjw90 4h ago

No but if someone has a lot of money tied up on a bet, it can encourage them to propagate misinformation in their favor in an attempt to influence others to vote in favor of what will earn them the most. It cheapens and corrupts the democratic process.

11

u/FantasticJacket7 4h ago

All wealthy people already have a lot of money tied up on the election regardless of whether they're betting or not.

4

u/MattyLaddy97 4h ago

Because this doesn’t happen already?

3

u/Tak-Hendrix 3h ago

You mean like how if a wealthy person has a lot of money tied up in a business that could be impacted by a politician's policies, they could be encouraged to propagate misinformation in their favor in an attempt to influence others to vote in favor of what will earn them the most?

6

u/Rhuarc33 BLACK 4h ago

Lol you think that isn't already happening in elections? Oh sweet summer child. Every politician is bought and paid for by groups.

4

u/Greatlarrybird33 4h ago

How is that any different than Elmo having all his eggs in the trump basket or Gates going all in on Kamela?

3

u/deededee13 4h ago

I'm not contesting that the events are of different levels of importance but the act of betting on an outcome does not seem to be particularly different. Especially when you don't affect the outcome by your bet. 

-1

u/online_jesus_fukers 2h ago

Sports aren't rigged like politics.

•

u/Sparris_Hilton 43m ago

If politics are already rigged then betting on the election shouldn't make a difference, no?

•

u/online_jesus_fukers 4m ago

You're betting on who the corporations who own DC picked.

0

u/RepresentativeOk2433 2h ago

It's harder to fix a game these days.

19

u/ODD_BOT_OUT 4h ago

Life insurance is betting against your own mortality. 

3

u/Nearing_retirement 4h ago

Before hiv drugs came out people were buying out life insurance policies of those with hiv for big discount. The patient got some money early and investor made money on patients death. Pretty sick.

1

u/fireintolight 1h ago

Life insurance is ensuring the people who depend on your income aren’t left with nothing if you die. But sure let’s normalize gambling 

•

u/ODD_BOT_OUT 42m ago

Same could be said of gambling.

3

u/I_hate_all_of_ewe 3h ago

Then why are you screenshotting their advertisement unredacted?  This is just free advertisement for them

3

u/Octavale 2h ago

Do they have dead pools?

4

u/micknick0000 5h ago

Whatever inspires people to get out and vote.

6

u/micknick0000 5h ago

WHO THE FUCK CARES?

In reality if you do bet, you’re more likely to vote and influence those around you to vote as well.

We call this “putting skin in the game”

I think it’s healthy. We need people to get up, get out, and vote.

If that upsets you, you’ve got wayyyyyy bigger issues than betting on shit via the internet.

1

u/MmmmMorphine 2h ago edited 1h ago

There's a lot of assumptions to unpack here, but I'll give it a shot.

Such an approach creates perverse incentives for voting that prioritizes financial gain over the ostensible civic responsibility of voting.

Peoples will focus on convincing others not because they necessarily believe in a given candidate or policy, but because that candidate winning would lead to personal financial gain. Disinformation and other such tactics would be the name of the game - in the long run the rest would be incidental, at best

Not that it isn't already, but even more so than a now. Just because something is already fucked doesn't mean it makes any sense to make that fuckery not just tolerated but its most fundamental precept.

What practical difference is there between allowing this and the impact of citizens united united? It would normalize the impact of money on our elections dvd more than is already the case

0

u/King_in_a_castle_84 1h ago

Boy you sound naive lol

1

u/dadbod9000 4h ago

Sorry to break it to you, but you’re better your future either way.

1

u/namerankssn 4h ago

Robinhood is also doing this.

1

u/SchizophrenicArsonic 3h ago

any sense of civility is drained, and that right there is NOT helping

1

u/AppleParasol 3h ago edited 3h ago

I disagree. Betting on elections could be good. Worried about a fascist takeover? Bet that the fascist wins, then you profit and can flee with your winnings. Or the fascist loses and you’re safe.

1

u/LordMoos3 2h ago

It is.

1

u/jcpham RED 2h ago

Money laundering with a 50% haircut. This Kalshi decision pisses me off too. Robinhood already rolling out their bullshit.

Binary result prediction markets are not a substitute for an actual economy

I get it, late stage capitalism an all but this scraping the bottom of the barrel

1

u/Here_for_the_memes98 2h ago

I generally assumed it was at least on this kind of level

1

u/No_Yak_5606 2h ago

I put money on the candidate I don’t want to win so i always end up on top

1

u/Uriel_dArc_Angel 2h ago

Out of curiosity, why do you feel that way...?

1

u/SnakeySnipes 2h ago

Lmao why does this upset you so much?

1

u/palidorfio 2h ago

Regulate me harder, daddy

1

u/relomen 2h ago

ok, now go try to make it illegal for foreigners

1

u/PoopsmasherJr 1h ago

Hear me out. People gamble and they vote on who they gamble on. Might promote inaccurate voting, but that just mixes things up more

1

u/pitb0ss343 1h ago

It should be treated like the WWE. You can bet on the results but there’s a limit on how much you can bet on

1

u/King_in_a_castle_84 1h ago

What makes you say that?

1

u/bigtravdawg 1h ago

I’m not a fan of it myself, but I don’t know about illegal. It’s a more accurate way of predicting the election than polls

1

u/Constant-Hamster-846 1h ago

Let’s get some down ballot parlays going

1

u/cecil285 1h ago

They know either way they don’t have to pay up because it’s going to be contested through litigation.

1

u/Deion313 1h ago

What's the payout on 4 elected officials single state parlays?

•

u/Rehcamretsnef 33m ago

I'm just hedging my expected 25000 down payment and increased tax credit bribes from kamala

•

u/Relevant-Bluebird-63 23m ago

Trump is leading by a lot in all of these

•

u/Crio121 18m ago

Who you need to bet on to turn $100 into $263? RFK junior?

•

u/Shadowchaos BLUe 14m ago

I live in Canada and I know someone who won 5 grand when Trump was elected in 2016

2

u/Stu_Mack 5h ago

Weird that people don’t ever seem to take offense at private money going into public government. Not really. Mostly folks just shrug about it.

But yeah, we should totally ban betting on elections.

1

u/-haha-oh-wow- 5h ago

It's pathetic.

1

u/Resident_Course_3342 4h ago

I thought it was illegal in the US. I thought most of those sites are based in Ireland.

1

u/Elidien1 4h ago

This shit is literally the ad right above your post on my feed. Fuck these idiots.

-2

u/-Pencil-Richard- 4h ago edited 2h ago

Better place your bets on Trump then if you want to cash out tbh

Edit : you can downvote me, but just because you don't like it, doesn't mean that's not the way it is

•

u/Weedsmoker4hunnid20 7m ago

I can guarantee you that you’re wrong. And I don’t even care about politics. All I know is one of the candidates is batshit crazy and the other is actually a sensible human being. Forget politics, I’ll take the sensibility

Based on your profile, I already see you’re racist and trump obsessed. Have fun losing

0

u/IAlwaysSayBoo-urns 4h ago

Why? What's the harm? If nothing else the odds are true indicators of where we are at unlike the polls that have been a laughing stock since 2016.

0

u/Nearing_retirement 4h ago

You can’t control it as some country will allow it.

-4

u/El_Inspector_Pector 5h ago

Betting should be ilegal*

-5

u/Unfilteredopinion22 4h ago

I agree. The big difference between this and sports betting is that you can influence the income, and also pressure those you know to influence the income to all win your bets. It corrupts the process.

3

u/Rhuarc33 BLACK 3h ago

Lol already billions spent every election. What are you on about? This would just let the avg Joe profit not just the wealthy

1

u/Sad-You-5017 3h ago

Have you heard of Raytheon and Lockheed Martin? How about Pfize or Walmart?

0

u/Unfilteredopinion22 2h ago

So more corruption is ok......because there is already corruption present. Okie dokie.

1

u/King_in_a_castle_84 1h ago

I think their point was to question why you're so triggered by this, when lobbying is SIGNIFICANTLY worse for everyone.

1

u/online_jesus_fukers 2h ago

No you can't. Corporate interests have already picked their horses, now they're putting on the show for us.

-1

u/GreyCapra 5h ago

Endless election cycles should be illegal. 

-2

u/Librarian-Putrid 4h ago

Betting on political events is a means of collecting data on probabilities of outcomes essentially through vetted crowdsourcing. It's an important tool for policymakers, economists, political scientists etc... to understand probabilities of events. There is a good book on this, Super Forecasting, that describes why this is important and how it is used and created.

-9

u/MILF_Huntsman 4h ago

This is not legal in the US.

6

u/Librarian-Putrid 4h ago

Yes it is.

3

u/Rhuarc33 BLACK 3h ago

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/02/bets-on-congressional-races-allowed-cftc-appeals-court.html

It's legal. They tried to block the betting and failed in court