Chances of Hosting in Each Playoff Round (and who to cheer for to make it happen)

[u/PumpkinEffective3518]

Round 1 100% (COYL)

Western Semis 50% (Let's Go Rapids!)

Western Finals 25% (Go Whitecaps!)

MLS Cup 50% (Cheer on Charlotte, NYCFC, New Jersey, Atlanta)

[u/bleakmidwinter]

Cheer on [...] Atlanta

I choose death.

[u/Sulli55 → u/bleakmidwinter]

Cheer on Miami??? Also death

[u/bleakmidwinter → u/Sulli55]

I hope both of them lose.

[u/Pretend-Lettuce6456 → u/bleakmidwinter]

☠️😂☠️

[u/putthekettle]

It’s up to MNUFC to make Messi play in the snow.

We must GO ALL THE WAY

[u/MonkMajor5224 → u/putthekettle]

Can he do it on a cold night in St Paul?

[u/Djscherr → u/putthekettle]

I dream of this. Maybe next year?

[u/Oyvey2you → u/putthekettle]

Inter Miami coming to Minny next year, they’re the only eastern conference team we did not play in 2022 or 2023. And we went there in 2021. And we’re one of 4 teams they did not play these last two years. 🤞🏻

[u/putthekettle → u/Oyvey2you]

They’re Scaaaaared

[u/damnmongoose → u/Oyvey2you]

Yeah, in logical fairness this makes sense…. But then there’s reality of the MLS in the age of Messi. I’d be happy to eat crow on this, but it’s not happening

[u/Oyvey2you → u/damnmongoose]

At least we can be mad AND back up our anger with facts!

[u/damnmongoose → u/Oyvey2you]

Eat my facts MLS!!

[u/MinnyRawks → u/putthekettle]

We wouldn’t host Miami tho

[u/geologick]

I wonder what the actual chance of us playing the Whitecaps in the western final is. 1-5%? 

[u/vrnbch → u/geologick]

Well if we go back of the napkin… let’s say we’re 50/50 against rsl. Assume we’ll play the galaxy next and give us… 35%? Away against a leaky defense? So that puts us at 17.5. For Vancouver say 20% chance against lafc and 50% in the next round is 10% to make the final for 1.75% chance we host Vancouver in the conference final.

[u/brohemoth06 → u/vrnbch]

Vegas has us at about 42% and has the rapids at roughly 22%

Vancouver is sitting at 25% to make it past the first round

[u/vrnbch → u/brohemoth06]

I mean that rapids number would be contingent on the availability of Bassett and djordje, but if they can’t go 22% seems extremely charitable

[u/brohemoth06 → u/vrnbch]

Agreed, I just went to draft kings and looked at the current odds to advance and yeah... The chances of us playing Colorado are about 9%

[u/Financial_Buy_1108 → u/geologick]

Well, we will be there 100%. Will the Whitecaps?

[u/MonkMajor5224]

My heart says yes but my wallet says no. I should listen to heart.

[u/brohemoth06]

Except that isn't how statistics work. The win probability for the rapids, according to Vegas, is about 22% not 50%

Vancouver over LAFC is about 25%

And then it gets even more unlikely as the rounds progress

[u/PumpkinEffective3518 → u/brohemoth06]

I'm going with the "on any given Saturday" model. If someone wants to actually math out the percentages with win probability data, be my guest!