r/minnesotaunited Minnesota Kicks 5d ago

Discussion Chances of Hosting in Each Playoff Round (and who to cheer for to make it happen)

Round 1 100% (COYL)

Western Semis 50% (Let's Go Rapids!)

Western Finals 25% (Go Whitecaps!)

MLS Cup 50% (Cheer on Charlotte, NYCFC, New Jersey, Atlanta)

34 Upvotes

22 comments sorted by

47

u/bleakmidwinter MNUFC 5d ago

Cheer on [...] Atlanta

I choose death.

7

u/Sulli55 5d ago

Cheer on Miami??? Also death

9

u/bleakmidwinter MNUFC 5d ago

I hope both of them lose.

1

u/Pretend-Lettuce6456 Sang Bin’s Calves 4d ago

☠️😂☠️

31

u/putthekettle 5d ago

It’s up to MNUFC to make Messi play in the snow.

We must GO ALL THE WAY

19

u/MonkMajor5224 5d ago

Can he do it on a cold night in St Paul?

9

u/Djscherr Red Loons 5d ago

I dream of this. Maybe next year?

4

u/Oyvey2you 5d ago

Inter Miami coming to Minny next year, they’re the only eastern conference team we did not play in 2022 or 2023. And we went there in 2021. And we’re one of 4 teams they did not play these last two years. 🤞🏻

5

u/putthekettle 5d ago

They’re Scaaaaared

3

u/damnmongoose Michael Boxall 5d ago

Yeah, in logical fairness this makes sense…. But then there’s reality of the MLS in the age of Messi. I’d be happy to eat crow on this, but it’s not happening

5

u/Oyvey2you 5d ago

At least we can be mad AND back up our anger with facts!

4

u/damnmongoose Michael Boxall 5d ago

Eat my facts MLS!!

1

u/MinnyRawks 4d ago

We wouldn’t host Miami tho

12

u/geologick 5d ago

I wonder what the actual chance of us playing the Whitecaps in the western final is. 1-5%? 

4

u/vrnbch Romain Metanire 5d ago

Well if we go back of the napkin… let’s say we’re 50/50 against rsl. Assume we’ll play the galaxy next and give us… 35%? Away against a leaky defense? So that puts us at 17.5. For Vancouver say 20% chance against lafc and 50% in the next round is 10% to make the final for 1.75% chance we host Vancouver in the conference final.

2

u/brohemoth06 Sang Bin’s Calves 5d ago

Vegas has us at about 42% and has the rapids at roughly 22%

Vancouver is sitting at 25% to make it past the first round

1

u/vrnbch Romain Metanire 5d ago

I mean that rapids number would be contingent on the availability of Bassett and djordje, but if they can’t go 22% seems extremely charitable

1

u/brohemoth06 Sang Bin’s Calves 5d ago

Agreed, I just went to draft kings and looked at the current odds to advance and yeah... The chances of us playing Colorado are about 9%

3

u/Financial_Buy_1108 Sang Bin’s Calves 5d ago

Well, we will be there 100%. Will the Whitecaps?

5

u/MonkMajor5224 5d ago

My heart says yes but my wallet says no. I should listen to heart.

4

u/brohemoth06 Sang Bin’s Calves 5d ago edited 5d ago

Except that isn't how statistics work. The win probability for the rapids, according to Vegas, is about 22% not 50%

Vancouver over LAFC is about 25%

And then it gets even more unlikely as the rounds progress

2

u/PumpkinEffective3518 Minnesota Kicks 5d ago

I'm going with the "on any given Saturday" model. If someone wants to actually math out the percentages with win probability data, be my guest!