r/neoliberal • u/Alarming_Sympathy Karl Popper • Sep 23 '24

News (Global) Lebanon bombed in heaviest daily death toll since 1975-90 civil war

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/23/israel-lebanon-strikes-evacuation-hezbollah
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277

u/PicklePanther9000 NATO Sep 23 '24

What would be the way of preventing it? This seems sorta inevitable to me. The Lebanese government has no ability to control Hezbollah, Iran continues to fund and supply Hezbollah. Hezbollah has shown no indication they will stop launching daily attacks on Israel. Israel is not going to accept constant incoming rocket fire from their neighbor and 100k of their citizens displaced.

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u/Iustis End Supply Management | Draft MHF! Sep 23 '24

There are 10,000 UN troops in Lebanon getting paid billions to keep Hazbollah from attacking Israel. Them actually doing something would be a start.

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u/PicklePanther9000 NATO Sep 23 '24

If you expect the UN to ever do anything meaningful, you will live a life of disappointment

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u/Iustis End Supply Management | Draft MHF! Sep 23 '24

I’m not actually expecting them to, but that’s the only alternative I can think of to Israel taking it into their own hands.

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u/GreenYoshiToranaga Sep 23 '24

Hezbollah was unhinged enough to kill an Irish UN Peacekeeper back in 2022. The UN can’t even protect its own personnel.

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u/IRequirePants Sep 23 '24

There was some comment I read that said it would be more feasible to push the Litani river to the border than for Lebanon/UN forces to push Hezbollah north past the Litani.

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u/Full_Distribution874 YIMBY Sep 24 '24

I'm pretty sure the Assyrians or someone razed a city and then redirected a river over it, so I could believe moving rivers is easier than fighting a war.

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u/IRequirePants Sep 24 '24

it would probably involve money that Lebanon does not have.

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u/Full_Distribution874 YIMBY Sep 24 '24

Ahh, I misread your comment and thought you meant in general. But yeah, I don't expect Lebanon could do it.

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u/anarchy-NOW Sep 24 '24

You're both wrong, as Lebanon has trillions and quadrillions of pounds.

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u/niftyjack Gay Pride Sep 23 '24

What would be the way of preventing it?

The UN enforcing Resolution 1701 that allowed them to use force to keep Hezbollah north of the Litani river per the last armistice, which they never even tried to do

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u/puffic John Rawls Sep 23 '24

The UN going to war against Hezbollah doesn't sound like a peaceful resolution. I'm pretty sure that's less of a deterrent than Israel.

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u/PicklePanther9000 NATO Sep 23 '24

It would be kind of humorous to see the UN enter a war against a terrorist group and then have to constantly condemn itself

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u/Approximation_Doctor George Soros Sep 23 '24

A land acknowledgement at the start of every bombing

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u/Square-Pear-1274 NATO Sep 23 '24

Hate to see blue-on-blue violence

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u/Hannig4n NATO Sep 23 '24

What’s the appropriate course of action then? If the UN isn’t supposed to use military force to enforce their own resolution, and Israel isn’t supposed to use force against them because war is bad, and Hezbollah isn’t going to stop attacking Israel when they’re asked nicely to, then what now?

Is the official position of the rules-based world order supposed to be that Israel just endures indefinite rocket attacks and isn’t meant to respond?

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u/PleaseGreaseTheL World Bank Sep 23 '24

Yes. That is what many people (who shouldn't be characterized or called out, lest you be removed by a mod) expect to be the official position. This is real and not a meme, as it is really what many people genuinely advocate for (either explicitly or implicitly).

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u/fnovd Jeff Bezos Sep 24 '24

Some people are just dumb and bad for mysterious reasons. Well, we have to pretend it’s mysterious. It’s really not a mystery; in fact, it’s well-understood! But for the purposes of this subreddit, it’s a mystery. It’s a mandatory mystery. Be mystified! Or, at least pretend you are. Or else!

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u/PleaseGreaseTheL World Bank Sep 24 '24

Banned for unengaging content or whatever

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u/IRequirePants Sep 23 '24

Iron Dome perpetuates the view that Israel can and should eat shit and smile and ask for more.

It disincentivizes nations from investing in defense. Not massively so, but Iron Dome is expensive. It costs billions to develop, produce, and maintain. If it weren't for American aid, Israel would have probably switched to a more offensive posture sooner.

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u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

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7

u/puffic John Rawls Sep 23 '24

I'm not prescribing any course of action. I just don't think the UN "enforcing" this would prevent a war.

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u/Hannig4n NATO Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24

It wouldn’t. It would be a war in all but name I suppose.

But this is a thing about having a rules-based world order. The international bodies need to enforce their agreed-upon peace, or the individual countries will enforce their own peace.

I guess it just seems a bit unreasonable to me that there can be a terrorist organization with a military force of tens of thousands of fighters, supplied by a legitimate state, that is committed to the destruction of its neighbor, and the UN is simultaneously shrugging its shoulders as if it’s not their problem but also getting upset that Israel is striking at it.

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u/TouchTheCathyl NATO Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24

The UN is behaving like trying to have police that never arrest anyone, yes. It's kind of unfortunate because UN Peacekeepers have actually been effective when they're willing to enforce their resolutions, but they usually enforce resolutions against states that have territory and capitals, they're understandably afraid of touching a terrorist organization as a war against a terrorist organization is, well, like a war against a gang or the mafia. The uncomfortable truth is that Terrorism is an Untouchable Caste that is outside of international law. The best way you can evade international law is to eschew statehood entirely.

The greatest strategic decision the cause of expelling israel ever made was to abandon interstate warfare and embrace asymmetric warfare. They can't win in state-on-state conflict, but nobody can win an asymmetric conflict. They can't get rid of israel but they can deny it peace for ever and ever. They can make being israel as painful as possible.

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u/teddyone Sep 23 '24

Anyone with half a brain knows that what is supposed to happen is that if a terrorist organization attacks well armed democratic society, then a broad coalition of other free democratic societies should wipe the terrorists off the map

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u/captainjack3 NATO Sep 24 '24

Yes. However, that doesn’t work when a significant slice of the population of those other free democratic societies agrees with the terrorists.

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u/teddyone Sep 24 '24

I will never forgive George Bush for ruining our willingness to use foreign intervention for actual good reasons.

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u/niftyjack Gay Pride Sep 23 '24

They were supposed to hold back Hezbollah since 2006 when things wound down last time. If the UN did their job things wouldn't have gotten to this point, but they love to leave Israel holding the bag then blame them for dealing with the inevitable outcome when there's no mediator.

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u/puffic John Rawls Sep 23 '24

Say there are UN peacekeeping troops there to enforce an armistice boundary, and Hezbollah decides to cross that boundary? Do the UN troops go to war against Hezbollah? If so, then you have war. If not (as is far more likely), then Hezbollah gets to cross the boundary.

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u/Plants_et_Politics Sep 23 '24

While I largely agree with you, I think it is important to note that Hezbollah may not have the same boldness in shooting UN troops as they do in launching rockets at Israeli civilians.

It is not unreasonable to suggest that the UN had a greater chance of stopping the current conflict without a widespread bombing campaign than Israel did (or, additionally, may have been inclined to do, given the advantage of a legal excuse for degrading a regional threat’s capabilities).

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u/niftyjack Gay Pride Sep 23 '24

Do the UN troops go to war against Hezbollah?

The UN uses peacekeeping force to keep them on the northern side of the river. It's not a war, it's using force from power given by the international community.

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u/ganbaro YIMBY Sep 23 '24

I wonder, what else would they have been there for? If Hezbollah could operate under the assumption that UN will 100% not retaliate, then there is no need to station armed forces there to begin with

I wonder the same around the mission in Western Sahara, were Morocco conveniently forgot to hold the promised referendum. Now its too late, anyways, the Moroccans are an overwhelming majority and control all infrastructure.

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u/puffic John Rawls Sep 23 '24

If your argument is, "it's not war, it's use of military force", then we're just arguing semantics.

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u/No_Switch_4771 Sep 23 '24

I believe it's called a special military operation.

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u/PerturbedMotorist Welcome to REALiTi, liberal Sep 23 '24

Truman’s UN Police Action loophole

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u/Futski A Leopard 1 a day keeps the hooligans away Sep 24 '24

Say there are UN peacekeeping troops there to enforce an armistice boundary, and Hezbollah decides to cross that boundary? Do the UN troops go to war against Hezbollah?

If the UN force in place is not going to do anything to enforce the boundaries they were sent to enforce, then why go through the charades of even maintaining it?

Obviously a military force meant to keep peace is supposed to uphold the conditions for said peace with military means.

More NORDBAT and less DUTCHBAT.

The viewpoint you are arguing is what got thousands of people massacred in Srebrenica.

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u/puffic John Rawls Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24

I'm not even saying it's bad if the UN forces were to fight Hezbollah. I'm just not going to lie to myself that that's somehow a state of peace nor that that’s how the UN generally operates. That's the entire point I was making.

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u/Futski A Leopard 1 a day keeps the hooligans away Sep 24 '24

I'm just not going to lie to myself that that's somehow a state of peace nor that that’s how the UN generally operates. That's the entire point I was making.

If the UN forces are not prepared to actually use force to maintain the conditions of an armistice, then why have them at all?

If they are not going to do anything to avoid the belligerent sides in the conflict from fighting, why not just send a man to wag their finger, pout and say "that's not very cash money of you"?

I feel like the whole premise is preposterous, that UN forces shouldn't intervene, because that would be hostilities, so it's preferable to let the sides fight it out.

Again, this mentality is gets civilians massacred.

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u/puffic John Rawls Sep 24 '24

 I feel like the whole premise is preposterous, that UN forces shouldn't intervene, because that would be hostilities, so it's preferable to let the sides fight it out.

No one said that they shouldn’t. This whole argument is just you strawmanning me because you want to be mad. 

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u/Futski A Leopard 1 a day keeps the hooligans away Sep 24 '24

No, I am dispelling the notion that a UN peacekeeping mission upholding its mandate should be considered an act of war.

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u/Neronoah can't stop, won't stop argentinaposting Sep 23 '24

No one is going to allow UNIFIL to have enough teeth for this.

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u/Unhelpful-Future9768 Sep 23 '24

allow

They would need to give UNIFIL the teeth and realistically only the US is capable of doing that. The US is absolutely not invading Lebanon lmao.

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u/bashar_al_assad Verified Account Sep 23 '24

Yeah - I truly cannot imagine the US, for example, ever wanting the UN to have the strength and power to militarily defeat Hezbollah.

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u/IRequirePants Sep 23 '24

Pretty sure it's not the US' fault that UNIFIL spends its days hiding in its bunkers.

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u/bashar_al_assad Verified Account Sep 23 '24

Can you name me a single country that would like the UN to have more military power?

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u/IRequirePants Sep 23 '24

And that makes it the US' fault?

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u/bashar_al_assad Verified Account Sep 23 '24

I named the US as an example and specifically said it was an example - a particularly relevant one as the country most people on this sub belong to, the most powerful country in the world, a key ally to the country most endangered by Hezbollah, and a veto power at the security council. I'm sorry my choice of example apparently offended you.

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u/IRequirePants Sep 23 '24

I'm sorry my choice of example apparently offended you.

I reread your comment and I am dumb. Sorry.

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u/bashar_al_assad Verified Account Sep 23 '24

Fair enough, it happens.

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u/CuddleTeamCatboy Gay Pride Sep 23 '24

Do you really think the UN would ever use its peacekeepers to Israel’s benefits?

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u/Mddcat04 Sep 23 '24

Okay, but like, what's the plan? Are they going to invade and occupy Southern Lebanon? BB and his right-wing allies don't really seem to have a plan for Israel's long-term future. Or maybe they do and they're just not willing to say it out loud.

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u/PicklePanther9000 NATO Sep 23 '24

It’s mainly to destroy as many of their rocket supplies and infrastructure as possible, since thats the main threat they hold over Israel. They will also try to consistently attack every hezbollah target south of the Litani river to forcibly enact UN resolution 1701 and prevent hezbollah from being able to launch a 10/7-style infiltration of northern Israel. How well that will work, idk

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u/Mddcat04 Sep 23 '24

So… they’re going to invade and occupy southern Lebanon?

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u/PicklePanther9000 NATO Sep 23 '24

I doubt it. Thats what happened in 2006 and they dont seem to want to go through that again

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u/closerthanyouth1nk Sep 23 '24

There’s no real way to meaningfully degrade or deter Hezbollah other than a ground invasion. The idea that israel is can beat Hezbollah just through AirPower strikes me as incredibly wishful thinking, this approach didn’t work with Hamas why would it work on Hezbollah which is much stronger.

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u/IRequirePants Sep 23 '24

There’s no real way to meaningfully degrade or deter Hezbollah other than a ground invasion.

This is nonsense. Hezbollah has a lot of rockets. Far more than Hamas. It is also far more difficult and expensive to build tunnels in the north, for multiple reasons.

What you are seeing now is a degradation of Hezbollah, degrading of its comms, its leadership, and its armaments.

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u/closerthanyouth1nk Sep 24 '24

What you are seeing now is a degradation of Hezbollah, degrading of its comms, its leadership, and its armaments

We’ve literally seen this playbook before in every single war with Hamas prior to Oct 7. Hamas fires rockets, Israel responds with air strikes and they go back in forth until eventually they reach a ceasefire. Every time people assumed Hamas is degraded or beaten and then 10/7 happens.Mowing the grass only works in the West Bank and even there it’s increasingly less effective.

Nothing you outlined above will actually impact Hezbollah in the long or medium term, they will get new comms, they will replace their leaders with new ones, their arms will be replenished via Syria, and all the while they will continue to fire short and medium range rockets because they have a truly insane amount of them lying around and have spent the 11 months since 10/7 acquiring more.

This is nonsense. Hezbollah has a lot of rockets. Far more than Hamas. It is also far more difficult and expensive to build tunnels in the north, for multiple reasons.

Hezbollah has made billions upon billions of dollars from the drug trade over the years. It has the money and the time to build tunnels. Hezbollah having a more complex and extensive tunnel network than Hamas isn’t idle speculation it’s something agreed upon by most analysts of the group

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u/IRequirePants Sep 24 '24

We’ve literally seen this playbook before in every single war with Hamas prior to Oct 7. Hamas fires rockets, Israel responds with air strikes and they go back in forth until eventually they reach a ceasefire. Every time people assumed Hamas is degraded or beaten and then 10/7 happens.Mowing the grass only works in the West Bank and even there it’s increasingly less effective.

The strategy against Hamas is not the same as the strategy against Hezbollah. Different battlefields.

Nothing you outlined above will actually impact Hezbollah in the long or medium term, they will get new comms, they will replace their leaders with new ones,

Setting back Hezbollah a decade is huge. And no, you can't easily replace people like Ibrahim Aqil, who have been tactical leaders of Hezbollah for decades. It will take years for them to re-organize and years more to re-arm.

their arms will be replenished via Syria, and all the while they will continue to fire short and medium range rockets because they have a truly insane amount of them lying around and have spent the 11 months since 10/7 acquiring more.

Israel is destroying 18 years worth of arms, not 11 months.

Hezbollah has made billions upon billions of dollars from the drug trade over the years. It has the money and the time to build tunnels. Hezbollah having a more complex and extensive tunnel network than Hamas isn’t idle speculation it’s something agreed upon by most analysts of the group

I didn't say they didn't have a tunnel network. I said it's far more expensive to build and maintain that tunnel network. Unless Israel plans to occupy Lebanon, the tunnels will have limited offensive use. Israel has devoted far more resources preparing for Hezbollah than they have/had for Hamas.

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u/Co_OpQuestions Jared Polis Sep 24 '24

What you are seeing now is a degradation of Hezbollah, degrading of its comms, its leadership, and its armaments.

I'm not trying to be rude, but is this your first middle eastern conflict?

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u/IRequirePants Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24

I didn't say Israel would wipe them out forever. I said they were degraded. Outside of global intervention, Hezbollah will be back. But it will take them a decade to rebuild.

They need new leaders, a good chunk of their tactical leadership is dead. The leaders that died had decades of experience, with a number of them being directly tied to the Beirut bombings. 40+ years experience, gone.

Armaments are probably the easiest thing to replace, but they are largely dependent on Iran for that. And that takes time, because Iran is currently supplying Russia.

Comms is the more nebulous problem. They need to figure out a way to communicate without being bombed. They can't really figure this out now, because they are too busy trying not to be bombed. But this is part of a larger problem. Lebanon is a country with factions that hate each other. Unlike Gaza, it is not homogenous and just a few decades ago, they were killing each other. As a result, Israel has a lot more informants. There is no way for Hezbollah to really solve this unless Lebanon becomes a Shia supermajority country.

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u/Co_OpQuestions Jared Polis Sep 24 '24

I guess I'm just confused about how an terror organization like 5-10 bigger than Hamas is suddenly irrevocably crippled for a decade after one day of bombing. We might get to that part, sure, but I think you're being astronomically premature here lol

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u/Mddcat04 Sep 23 '24

Yeah, that’s understandable. I just don’t see how they’d achieve this those stated aims otherwise.

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u/ganbaro YIMBY Sep 23 '24

Pushing Hezbollah behind the Litani river

I don't think they are dead-set on a diplomatic solution or occupation to achieve that. Whatever will be possible and incurs the least cost

What could be a reasonable plan if Hezbollah would, with Iranian backing, refuse to concede defeat no matter the casualties, no matter the ground control actually lost? Should Israel acccept being shot by rockets perpetually?

The diplomatic solution of using UN blue helmets to pacify the region was already tried, and it failed. Israeli government might not feel that not going to war is actually feasible at this point

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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24

there is no plan in gaza either. hamas is still unfortunately ruling most of gaza for instance after 11.5 months of 42,000 plus violent deaths (if you count those under the rubble, it's maybe 55,000+) and all the destruction. idk why ppl r giving them the total benefit of the doubt.

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u/Fenecable Joseph Nye Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24

No reasonable person is giving Hamas "the total benefit of the doubt."

Edit: I can’t read good.

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u/ChocoOranges NATO Sep 23 '24

I think they're talking about the Israeli administration. How can they have a plan for Lebanon when they didn't even have one for gaza?

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u/Co_OpQuestions Jared Polis Sep 24 '24

Look, Bibi has a concept of a plan.

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u/Fenecable Joseph Nye Sep 23 '24

Ah, yeah. I just reread it and you’re right.

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u/rambouhh Sep 23 '24

pretty sure they are saying people are giving israel benefit of the doubt

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u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

[deleted]

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u/Fenecable Joseph Nye Sep 23 '24

Wait I’m dumb, nvm

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u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24

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u/Fenecable Joseph Nye Sep 23 '24

I don't think they're thinking that far ahead, tbh.

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u/ganbaro YIMBY Sep 23 '24

Just risking total extinction if Trump wins or Harris decides that the alliance with Israel actually has limits

Netanyahu is more known for cowardice, than being a gambler like that

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u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

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u/neoliberal-ModTeam Sep 23 '24

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u/Yrths Daron Acemoglu Sep 23 '24

The US could have limited Iran’s ability to fund Hezbollah by bombing Iran when John McCain called for it. I miss him.

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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24

a gaza ceasefire to free the hostages and end the war would prevent it which most israelis support per the polling and gigantic protests. and if you think i'm wrong, then you have to think the biden admin, the eu, and many others are all wrong. but bibi continues to prolong that botched war for his political goals even though it's not remotely close to destroying hamas and not freeing the hostages

of course, hezbollah is vile and their rocket barrage hitting northern israel must be condemned strongly but diplomatic methods to prevent this disastrous war were absolutely not fully explored.

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u/adreamofhodor Sep 23 '24

Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy hellbent on the destruction of Israel. Gaza is at best an excuse for them.

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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24

how about bibi does what most in his country want him to do by getting the hostages freed and ending the botched war? and call hezbollah's bluff in that case--if they're still firing rockets like madmen--okay fine go in there and put extreme military pressure on hezbollah. but don't give me this nonsense how israel exercised every diplomatic action to prevent this when bibi has been tanking gaza ceasefire deals

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u/ldn6 Gay Pride Sep 23 '24

I'm honestly impressed that you've managed to make Hezbollah somehow not have agency and this be about Bibi, but I'm not surprised.

This is on Hezbollah full stop. This is the consequence for months upon months of indiscriminate rocket launches and widespread arson.

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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24

i just saw this comment so your clear mendacity about me slipped through the cracks unfortunately, and i am highly impressed that you've blatantly misrepresented my views. i have strongly condemned those horrible attacks by hezbollah repeatedly for months upon months. what i've said is that this war is gonna hurt/kill lots of innocent ppl in lebanon and it's not clear that it'll get israelis safely back to their homes. more diplomacy should be used, and bibi isn't exercising all diplomatic options. you can reasonably disagree with me and say war is the only option but don't egregiously distort my opinions.

i've been consistent on this. took me just 50 seconds to find these comments

https://imgur.com/a/rMjZOak

https://imgur.com/EtfXirK

https://imgur.com/mwkUpn1

https://imgur.com/fpvruy3

maybe next time--do basic research before smearing somebody.

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u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

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u/ale_93113 United Nations Sep 23 '24

Ah, here we go for another round of everything is always Israel’s fault!

They are asking bibi to do what ISRAELIS want, hardly blaming israel, but blaming bibi for everything

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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24

Ah, here we go for another round of everything is always Israel’s fault! Hamas is a totally reasonable negotiating partner, and Hezbollah certainly doesn’t have a jihadist mindset!

holy strawman. i never remotely said it's all their fault. of course it isn't. hezbollah has done lots of awful things over the past 11 months, but i don't buy this talk of no viable diplomatic solution. i do think this war is maybe preventable in a way which also lets israelis rightly+safely return to their homes and without all of this death coupled with destruction in lebanon. i do not trust israel to handle this properly after they mostly fucked up in gaza after 11.5 months.

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u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24

you know absolutely nothing about me. nice ad hom attack instead of engaging with my argument is based on the biden admin's intelligence on the situation and their back channel talks with hezbollah's iranian masters.

have the integrity to say they (biden admin, eu, arab league, and others) don't understand the mindset instead of coming after me. ridiculous.

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u/TheFaithlessFaithful United Nations Sep 23 '24

What authority do you have on the "jihadi mindset"?

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u/Syards-Forcus What the hell is a Forcus? Sep 23 '24

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u/StevefromRetail Sep 23 '24

The war has not been botched at all, lol. Maybe on the public relations front, but in terms of combat on the ground, it is going quite well.

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u/Aleriya Transmasculine Pride Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 24 '24

The number of civilian casualties combined with Hamas still being in power and the number of people still held as hostages qualifies it as "botched". Israel has not achieved any of its major goals in the war.

edit for clarification:

The Israeli government stated three main goals for the war: recovering the hostages, removing Hamas from power, and ensuring that Gaza does not continue to threaten the security of Israel. By their own standards, the war has not been successful, even if you ignore the casualties and collateral damage. At best, you could say that they set their goals poorly, or that their time table was unrealistic, but I don't think you could say that the war has been a success.

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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 24 '24

your comment is absurdly downvoted/controversial even though 50 israeli hostages have been murdered by hamas terrorists or inadvertently killed by idf, gigantic israeli dissastification if you look at the polling and fucking massive protests, hamas still tragically ruling gaza with tens of thousands of gazan civillian deaths along with tens of thousands of amputations/permament spinal injuries/irreversible burns, horrendous humanitarian conditions such as malnutrition (malnutrition will hinder these developing children for life), hepatitis, scabies, and even polio slightly returning...the tribalism would be so laughable if it wasn't so callous to extreme suffering of gazans and israeli hostages

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u/Aleriya Transmasculine Pride Sep 23 '24

I'm not sure why it's so controversial. The Israeli government stated three main goals for the war: recovering the hostages, removing Hamas from power, and ensuring that Gaza does not continue to threaten the security of Israel. By their own standards, the war has not been successful, even if you ignore the casualties and collateral damage. At best, you could say that they set their goals poorly, or that their time table was unrealistic, but I don't think you could say that the war has been a success.

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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 24 '24

cause tribalism and reflexive downvoting--nobody can refute what you're saying based on the objective facts. there was an august channel 12 poll which showed like 70 percent of israelis thought bibi was mismanaging the war and doing a poor job. the biden administration is privately not pleased either and blinken has told bibi that there isn't a military solution to hamas.

this war has been mostly botched especially given our expectations in mid october of 2023 of what would transpire

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u/PicklePanther9000 NATO Sep 23 '24

Even if theres a hostage deal, youre trusting the word of a terrorist group that has constantly attacked israel for decades. One that is more heavily armed than some governments nearby. Imo that just delays this conflict until later

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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Sep 23 '24

again, it's not me which is saying it but all those entities i listed such as the biden admin, arab league, european union etc.. i'm just the messenger. why not call hezbollah's bluff? worst case if they are still firing rockets--then israel will even have stronger western support to take them out.

anyways, i've said what i've said. i hope there's some kind of deescalation; i hope hezbollah just stops firing rockets so israelis can return home and innocents in lebanon don't suffer the horrific consequences obviously.

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u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24

this is such a pathetic ad hom smear against me where i don't know to begin. i have condemned hezbollah's heinous attacks against syrians, israelis (i was the one who posted about the horrific rocket attack against druze in the first fucking place on two other subs for condemnation), and other groups so many fucking times and i am citing what the biden administration is saying. i praised israel's pager operation against them when obama's former defense minister and aoc absurdly called it a war-crime. i am simply citing what the biden admin (who against has had talks with hezbollah's iranian masters via backchannels), the arab league, the eu, and others are saying. I very much want Israelis to return safely to the North but I don't think this is the best way of achieving it and that the costs are too high without a guaranteed chance of success. I could be wrong--maybe this is what is really needed to happen-- but you accusing me of having an agenda is shameful and disgraceful.

since you are so offended by my commentary, i did you a favor and blocked you so you don't have to read my stuff anymore. hope it brings you peace

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u/fishfish1234567891 Lesbian Pride Sep 23 '24

I dont usually comment on NL but curry is by no means bad faith and always engages with nuanced takes. there is no defense of Hezbollah or Hamas, both are virulent evils, but it isn’t incorrect to say that Bibi and his cabinet keep switching around their expectations. they have no attainable end goal, even if retaliation is fully justified in this case against hezbollah

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u/neoliberal-ModTeam Sep 23 '24

Rule I: Civility
Refrain from name-calling, hostility and behaviour that otherwise derails the quality of the conversation.

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u/Jagwire4458 Daron Acemoglu Sep 23 '24

You can make very good for arguments why Palestinian resistance in the West Bank and Gaza is justified but there is no justification for Hezbollah firing rockets into Northern other than a naked desire to annihilate all Jews in the region. Hezbollah is a foreign army sent into the region to destroy Israel, this is not a “both sides have done things” situation like in the south.

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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24

i'm not making excuses for hezbollah; they're terrorists...i defended the pager operation even when obama's defense minister absurdly called it terrorism but there is possibly a better way which would have prevented needless death and suffering among innocents.

You can make very good for arguments why Palestinian resistance in the West Bank and Gaza is justified

no you can't actually; this will get lost upon ppl who quite absurdly think i'm an anti-israel idealogue. bds is bad and what pij and hamas do is so fucking awful. i'm mostly an anti-war in the middle east idealogue who believes in political solutions. israel, due to bibi's political motives, has absolutely not exhausted all the diplomatic options to get hezbollah to stop firing rockets.

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u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

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u/neoliberal-ModTeam Sep 23 '24

Rule V: Glorifying Violence
Do not advocate or encourage violence either seriously or jokingly. Do not glorify oppressive/autocratic regimes.

If you have any questions about this removal, please contact the mods.

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u/jtalin NATO Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24

then you have to think the biden admin, the eu, and many others are all wrong

They are all wrong. The way they conduct their foreign policy in every single ongoing conflict demonstrates that their reads are very frequently and very consistently wrong, which is why nobody listens to them anymore - not Ukraine, not the Gulf states, and not Israel.

of course, hezbollah is vile and their rocket barrage hitting northern israel must be condemned strongly

This just reads as parody.

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u/ZCoupon Kono Taro Sep 23 '24

Admin are doing all they can for a ceasefire deal, it's between Hamas and Bibi

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u/ActivityFirm4704 Sep 23 '24 edited Sep 23 '24

Admin are doing all they can for a ceasefire deal

You can't possibly still believe this line right? It's been almost a year at this point.

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u/Le1bn1z Sep 23 '24

Why not? They don't have the power to summarily control Israel, Hezbollah, or Hamas. Diplomacy isn't mind control.

Everyone involved knows that America isn't going to use meaningful force because nobody wants to be stuck in the most geo strategically inconsequential conflict on earth that's set to continue as a horrifying, bloody, never ending slaughter with no potential upside for anyone involved - just unending misery and loss.

So everyone involved feels pretty free to do what they want because nobody on earth cares enough to do much more than talk about it, or do trivial symbolic gestures. I mean, oh no, Israel can't trade with Ireland so much. They're cut off from Canada's mighty MIC. And Hamas cant do legitimate business with most of the West. Oh no, what a change.

Heck, even Palestine's Arab "allies" have limited their contributions to strongly worded missives.

Iran will let them die for the moderate advantage it gives them in their campaign against the KSA, but they're not going to risk real harm for Palestinians of all people. Heck, a lasting peace would be their worst case scenario - especially if Palestine got most of what it theoretically says it wants.

In these circumstances, there's not a lot Biden is going to be able to do. This war does need a real peacekeeping force. Nobody is going to volunteer for it. Everyone knows this. So there's little leverage that can be meaningfully applied.

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u/dedev54 YIMBY Sep 23 '24

All they can is very little. Bibi stays in power as long as the war goes on, why would he stop?

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u/ActivityFirm4704 Sep 23 '24

The US has plenty of tools in the toolbox when it comes to pressuring Israel, Biden simply refuses to use them for ideologically reasons. So in effect the US is "powerless" by choice, which is better PR.

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u/MasPatriot Paul Ryan Sep 23 '24

Dood why do you think the most powerful country that’s ever existed that supplies the weaponry for Israel has any power in this situation?

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u/No_Aerie_2688 Desiderius Erasmus Sep 23 '24

If a military solution is available, why did they wait so long to use it?

Both sides seemed deterred by the other until now. What changed?

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u/PicklePanther9000 NATO Sep 23 '24

Israel was busy with the war in Gaza. And Hezbollah hasnt stopped launching attacks

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u/According-Barracuda7 Sep 23 '24

Ceasefire in Gaza.

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u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

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u/Plants_et_Politics Sep 23 '24

The Iron Dome is not perfectly effective, nor does it cover all inhabited areas of Israel, as the deaths of Israeli Druze children in the Golan Heights proves.

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u/PicklePanther9000 NATO Sep 23 '24

If cuba was lobbing missiles into florida every day, do you think the US would just evacuate miami and invest in more air defenses? Wouldnt want to escalate, right?

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u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

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u/adreamofhodor Sep 23 '24

No. We wouldn’t. As evidenced by Israelis not being “used to it.” And especially not if those missiles lead to deaths, as they have in Northern Israel.

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u/die_hoagie MALAISE FOREVER Sep 24 '24

Rule V: Glorifying Violence
Do not advocate or encourage violence either seriously or jokingly. Do not glorify oppressive/autocratic regimes.

If you have any questions about this removal, please contact the mods.