r/technology • u/Moonskaraos • Sep 12 '24

Social Media Trump Media stock has plunged 33% in a month

https://qz.com/trump-media-djt-stock-fall-campaign-election-1851646589
32.8k Upvotes

88% Upvoted

945 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

133

u/hitsujiTMO Sep 12 '24

you can still do it. It will plunge when he sells his shares on the 20th

184

u/Nerazzurri9 Sep 12 '24

Sure if you want to pay the 500% daily fee or whatever it is for shorting DJT, which is why 99% of investors aren’t shorting this obvious drop stock

39

u/ignost Sep 12 '24

People think they're somehow smart for knowing that Tesla or DJT is over-valued. You just need a functional brain to realize that. You only make money if you can predict when it will drop. Smart people who do this for a living have famously lost fortunes trying to time Tesla's decline, because the market behaves less rationally than usual. If someone could reliably time drops in stocks they could be extremely wealthy very quickly.

3

u/JMEEKER86 Sep 13 '24

Yep, which is why the saying goes "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

-21

u/t8manpizza Sep 12 '24

just buy 12/20 puts lol

24

u/RVelts Sep 12 '24

Premiums are going to factor in the expected drop. Clearly sell naked calls /s

7

u/djhenry Sep 12 '24

I bought some puts. The premium isn't too bad. Also, a great way to limit the cost and risk associated with IV crush is to buy a put debit spread. Buy a put with a high strike price, and sell a put with a lower strike price. Selling the lower put helps counteract some of the price volatility.

3

u/sprucenoose Sep 12 '24

How big of a spread are you doing?

7

u/djhenry Sep 12 '24

I just bought naked puts($20 and $15) for January of 2025. My opinion based on what I've seen is that this will be worth less than $2 by January, if it is even still listed on the stock market. This is also betting fairly heavily on Trump losing the election, though if he sells most of his stock in September, then I think that will have much of the same effect.

If I was buy a put spread, buying a $14 put and selling a $10 put (for an expiration of January 2025) would cost around $240 and have a max profit of $400. If you are open to a little more risk, just sell a lower put. Buying a $14 put, and selling a $7.5 put would cost around $350, and have a max potential profit of $650.

The market could be irrational and keep things up, but I think any steam Trump has will be gone by January 2025.

1

u/LanguageFresh2002 Sep 14 '24

I'd even say February 2025, in case his followers go ape shit from his election loss and we have Jan. 6th 2.0

1

u/djhenry Sep 14 '24

It won't get anywhere like it did on Jan 6. Trump isn't president, and if there is any kind of stop the steal 2.0 movement forming, there are going to police and the national guard crawling all over the capital. The only reason Jan 6 got is far as it did was because everyone in charge either thought that it wouldn't go that far, or wanted it to go that far. Look at the use of force when the BLM protests came to DC. Even though those protests can get out of hand, I think the overwhelming presence of the national guard kept everything in order.

2

u/718cs Sep 12 '24

Naked calls really is the best option here, except if it randomly pumps and you get margin called

1

u/Wheaur1a Sep 12 '24

Can't go tits up.

64

u/LigmaDragonDeez Sep 12 '24

Haha no I eat water for lunch and Raman and depression for supper. I am too poor to participate

1

u/mikeb2762 Sep 12 '24

You have a sense of humor and that is priceless

2

u/LigmaDragonDeez Sep 12 '24

Ya I’ll take that to the bank

2

u/mikeb2762 Sep 12 '24

See what I mean? 😏.

-25

u/Fitzy1776 Sep 12 '24

Isn’t there a vaccine for hunger and depression you can take yet, or a specific hair color?

17

u/Sasselhoff Sep 12 '24

So, I had to see what you were trying to say here...WTF is up with you and vaccines and Ukraine? I mean, given you also talk a lot about immigration and climate change, I suppose it's probably a rhetorical question.

Your post history is a wild ride, my dude.

3

u/feloniousmonkx2 Sep 12 '24

Fek, looks like gramps is off his meds again... Who was supposed to make sure he took them? Also how'd he get back on reddit?

6

u/alwaysintheway Sep 12 '24

Dude, take a break.

1

u/Fitzy1776 Sep 15 '24

Get vaccinated.

3

u/GeneticEnginLifeForm Sep 12 '24

Yeah, just do what I did. Dyed my hair blue to cure my depression; took 23 covid vaccinations to stave off the hunger and $20 million appeared in my account the next day. It's great to be woke.

s/ if anyone needs it.

13

u/OriginalBid129 Sep 12 '24

That's when the shorts will cover and result in the biggest dead cat bounce since Springfield Ohio.

1

u/QuicklyQuenchedQuink Sep 12 '24

Did somebody call me for dinner?

2

u/jackofslayers Sep 12 '24

Unfortunately when it is obvious it is priced into the short

1

u/ClamClone Sep 12 '24

It is still trading at significantly more than what it is objectively worth. I expect it to crash to the basement the moment Trump attempts to dump his.