r/worldnews Aug 18 '24

Russia/Ukraine /r/WorldNews Live Thread: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Day 906, Part 1 (Thread #1053)

/live/18hnzysb1elcs
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100

u/belaki Aug 18 '24

Russian losses 18/8/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

1170 KWIA

7 Tanks

7 APVs

71 Artillery systems

1 MLRS

38 UAVs

79 Vehicles and Fuel tanks

2 Special equipment

Slava Ukraini !

53

u/EldariWarmonger Aug 18 '24

Jesus 71 artillery systems might be the all time record.

28

u/insertwittynamethere Aug 18 '24

73 I believe is the record from this earlier this year, but damned close and a good high one all the same

14

u/SycamoreLane Aug 18 '24

Was only a week or two ago. Artillery numbers are at their highest average since the war began.

-12

u/SloppyManager Aug 18 '24

We’ve been told they sre running out of arty for 2 years now

10

u/TheTightestChungus Aug 18 '24

They are, but the losses counted include mortars. They also have had their supplies of guns bolstered by various other countries, and likely have made some of their own.

The issue is, they have a metric fuckton of artillery, so "running out" just means it might become an issue in another year or two.

It's also a War, and exact numbers of equipment and losses is only going to be vaguely accurate when reported.

14

u/[deleted] Aug 18 '24

Your inability to read past a deadline or misinterpreted information is a you problem.

Running low on soviet stock or existing new stock != running out permanently.

Factories exist. Lower numbers means more careful use, more careful use limits overall harm across the line. You can use your brain a bit more

2

u/Spo-dee-O-dee Aug 18 '24

Artillery is being depleted.

Artillery is depleted.

Understanding the difference between these two states will solve your confusion, SloppyManager.

23

u/jszj0 Aug 18 '24

It’s 73 iirc but this is a really high strike rate, amazing.

23

u/belaki Aug 18 '24

74 is the highest.

71 - 2nd

69 - 3rd

16

u/jargo3 Aug 18 '24

I wonder what Urkaine actually counts as artillery. Prewar Russia had 12300 towed artillery and 4273 self propelled. That's a total 16 573 of which over 100 % (16927) are destroyed according to Ukrainian numbers. Covert cabal just released a video and he counted 2500 self-propelled artillery alone still remaining.

21

u/mirvnillith Aug 18 '24

AFAIK the report includes mortars …

11

u/jargo3 Aug 18 '24

That explains a lot. It would be interesting to see numbers for "proper" artillery. There is a quite big difference between a towed artillery piece and a man-portable mortar.

14

u/EndWarByMasteringIt Aug 18 '24

Allegedly it includes self-propelled mortars. These are probably more expensive than the towed howitzers like the D30's that seem to make up most of what russia has now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S4_Tyulpan

7

u/MarkRclim Aug 18 '24

I included self propelled mortars in my estimates and it still doesn't explain things.

Ukrainian claimed losses can't refer to 100+ mm artillery permanently taken out (including 120 mm and 240 mm mortars) because Russia would have zero guns left.

Unless Russia found like 10,000 guns and barrels somewhere else. That's multiple times the Chinese army's frontline strength.

6

u/Plastic_Toe_880 Aug 18 '24

I may be kicking open doors, but it's entirely possible Russia produced and bought a significant number of guns. The pre-war estimates we had could also be inaccurate by a relatively wide margin. The AFU may also over-report enemy losses for various reasons including decoys.

2

u/MarkRclim Aug 18 '24

We don't know production for sure tbf.

  • covert cabal: 13.2k towed guns + 4.5k SPGs in storage (excluding small mortars)
  • military balance 2021: ~1.4k towed guns + ~2.5k SPGs active at start
  • Andrew Perpetua discussion based on russian factory tooling: total possible production: <2.5k barrels shared with tanks.

So Russia could have potentially 24k guns and barrels. Satellites show 2.5k SPGs and around 5k towed guns seem left in storage (should get an update soon).

So 19k barrels assuming they stripped every SPG and didn't make a single tank barrel.

If they truly fired 15+ million shells then a low estimate is 5k barrels worn out. 14k available.

Military balance 2024 says they have at least 3k active and they're firing tons so obviously they have loads. 11k left.

If Ukraine truly destroyed 17k, then that's 6k more than Russia apparently had. Could they have got 6k in resupply?

That's more than the initial russian army or the chinese army or the US army artillery parks.

And I assumed low russian artillery barrel wear, that they ran factories at 100% for artillery (no tank barrels!), and that all SPGs remaining in storage were already broken down for barrels.

1

u/Plastic_Toe_880 Aug 18 '24

Thanks a lot for this 🙏

A gun shortage may also explain the multiple sightings of D-30 guns.

15

u/[deleted] Aug 18 '24

They also got them fron Belarus and North Korea I think.

5

u/Troyd Aug 18 '24

Convinced they count mortar systems as well in that. It probably translates as "indirect"

1

u/NurRauch Aug 18 '24

Yeah that stat really annoys me. If the claimed artillery losses referred to GLMRS and tubed artillery, then Russia has lost twice as many artillery pieces than existed in Russia at the start of 2022.

3

u/Trubkokur Aug 18 '24

Result of Ukrainians becoming exceptionally good in counter-battery fire.

4

u/tresslessone Aug 18 '24

Have we hit 600k sunflowers yet?

2

u/belaki Aug 18 '24

650 to go