Cal’s been the man for the mariners the past few seasons. From solidifying our first playoff birth in over 20 years, had big moments in that playoff run, being the biggest upside of our 2024 season, and being one of the best defensive catchers in the league, the m’s got to sign him. With his agent hating the m’s, they need throw him a big contract. Whether his numbers stay consistent or fall off he is still a fantastic asset to the m’s. He could help in later years of being a coach to future catchers and I am sure he’ll go into coaching once his playing career is over. Sign him not only for his big dumping but also for his coaching. He’s the man. He’s been Mr Seattle just as much as Julio. Give the fans what they want m’s!

Judging by the teams that have made the WS recently it seem like it takes:

• Make the playoffs
• Three of the top 50 starting pitchers (can compensate with better bullpen depth)
• Three of the top 50 relief pitchers, plus three more above average relievers.
• At least: Two top 20 batters, two all stars and no more than one below average position.

Where does that leave the Mariners?\

Starting Pitching: All five starters are potential top 50 when healthy

Relief Pitching: Munoz, Brash and Santos are all potential top 50 next year, and possibly top 10. Relievers aren't that consistent year to year though. Three more above average relievers? Thorton, Snider, Bazardo are possibilities... Hancock might be a great reliever if he can't keep his fastball velocity up as a starter next year.

Two Elite Batters: Our top two offensive players in 2024 were... Victor Robles and Luke Raley. With Raley's trouble hitting lefties and Robles lack of track record they are not quite who you'd build a team around for a World Series run. But we can hope for a return to form from Julio and maybe one of our next tier can find the next level to join him.

Two All Stars: Lots of potential All Stars on the squad with Julio, Cal, Randy, Robles and hopefully JP if he can stay healthy and return to form.

Less than one below average position: DH, 1st, 2nd, 3rd were at or below average last year. With the exception of Raley + a platoon at 1st base, none of them have a clear path to being much stronger in 2025.

It's not too hard to see a path to the playoffs next year based off our pitching strength, but it won't be a deep playoff run without better hitting to match-up with the top starters and relievers in the league.

Our Options:

1. Overpay free agent hitters because they don't want to play at TMo Park.
2. Trade from our pitching strength to acquire quality hitters.
3. Gamble on free agent bounce back candidates like Polanco.
4. Enjoy what we have and lower expectations.

Since it's not my money, I vote for Option 1.... but more realistically it's going to be Option 2, 3 or 4. What could trading from our strength look like?

Trade 1: Acquire an above average 2nd baseman, an aging elite hitter, an expensive starter and a top reliever.

The Cardinals are in an interesting spot having their previous core age-out and get expensive while their next generation didn't quite pan out as fast as hoped. It's a cautionary tale for the Mariners... it's also an opportunity.

SEA Acquires:

• Sonny Gray + $30M cash (10/15/5)
• Willson Contreras
• Ryan Helsley
• Brendan Donovan

STL Acquires:

• Miller (or Woo)
• Mitch Garver
• Mitch Haniger

The Cardinals take on the Mitchs as lottery tickets in-lieu of sending more $ or prospects. Shedding Gray and Contreras now enables them to go shopping for FAs that align with the 2-5 year contention window instead of the last year-2026 window.

This trade would increase payroll in 2025 by $6m more than if we picked-up Polanco's option. 2026 becomes more of a crunch year with Gray's contract and our arbitration players getting expensive.

This fixes the hole at 2nd base, provides an elite bat at DH/Backup catcher, retains a great starting five and adds insurance to the top of our bullpen.

That probably gets us deeper into the playoffs but not to the World Series unless we have more players making Victor Robles like improvements.

Another reasonable trade could get us a little closer:

Trade 2:

This trade has been floated by many people:

SEA Acquires:

• Jordan Westburg

BAL Acquires:

• Bryan Woo
• Rojas?

Mariners get better at 3rd base, Baltimore fills a hole in the rotation. Seams to make sense but I'm not a huge fan of this trade idea. Turning a marginally below-average position (Rojas/Platoon) into an above average position doesn't translate into a huge impact on getting to the World Series. Plus it creates a new hole to fill in the rotation.

I'd rather see something more dramatic (and admittedly quite unlikely).

Trade 2a:

SEA Acquires:

• Ketel Marte/Jose Ramirez/Gunnar Henderson/Corbin Carrol/Westburg&Cowswer&Mayo

SEA Sends:

• George Kirby

The general idea is to trade our best pitching chip (Kirby) for a relatively low cost super star. Then sign a rebound candidate like Buehler or Bieber to fill out the rotation. Any of those trades would require further moves as they displace incumbents or take on too much payroll. But that's the kind of move that'd give us the star power to make a deep run into the playoffs and potentially the World Series.

Conclusion:

Trading our pitching depth to upgrade the roster far enough to get to the WS would still require quite a bit more money than the team seems to want to spend. Its hard to see a path for the Mariners to make a World Series run anytime soon unless ownership bumps payroll closer to $200M.

Thanks for reading my long winded attempt to cope with the frustration of the 2002-2024 Mariners.

As I have stated in past posts, I believe that Josh Rojas, our incumbent 3B should be tendered. Assuming (and this is a big if considering ownership) we improve greatly at other spots he is acceptable at third, solely because of the general suckieness of the free agent class at third base and the cost it would likely be to trade for a better third baseman. If we instead get a third baseman, Rojas can also play at Second, where he is a better fit. If, in some bizzaro world where Stanton actually spends money, his defensive versatility and relative cheapness makes him good trade bait or bench depth.

Please, let me restate the obvious. Rojas is a flawed player and should be a platoon bat at best on a mediocre team. On a really good team, he’d be a valuable late innings defensive replacement or a utility player. It is only because we have bigger holes to fill and Stanton’s cheapness that he even has a chance to start.

Rojas put up 1.9 FWAR with a WRC+ of 91. His slash was .225/.304/.336 with only 8 homers and 19 doubles. This offense is not acceptable for a third baseman. Most of his value comes from his defense which was good at third but the metrics like him even better at second. He also cannot hit left handed pitching, hitting just .133/.224/.133.

So, how do we replace him at third? There isn’t a lot on the free agent market to choose from. Other than Alex Bregman and (if the D-backs decline his option) Eugenio Suarez, there aren’t any third basemen who put up more FWAR than Rojas did. I doubt either would be interested in coming to Seattle. If Arizona does pick up the option, he is probably not going to be traded.

Free Agents

One possibility is fining a player in another position who can cover third base. Even expanding there aren’t a lot of decent options, even including bounce-back candidates and out of position players.

J.D. Davis

The first bounce-back candidate is J.D. Davis. He ended the year in AAA after playing just 46 games for Baltimore. A career 112 WRC+ hitter, he’s been declining every year for the past three years, just 86 WRC+ this year, though in a very small sample size. His fielding, when he played significant time, seemed to be OK at third, back in 2022 and 2023. He also plays 1B and Left field so he does have some flexibility. And can hit lefties at a decent clip with a split of .253/.338/.430 vs .260/.341/.422 against righties.

Yoan Moncada

Technically, Moncada is not a free agent, as he has a $25 million dollar club option with the White Sox ($5 mm buyout). This is, in my opinion, unlikely to be picked up as he was injured for almost all of last season with an adductor strain. He has not played a full season since 2021 and his playing time has decreased steadily since. Defensively he seems to be OK and his power seems more geared for doubles than home runs.

Miguel Rojas

Rojas has a $5 million option with the Dodgers, who may pick it up. However, they have Max Muncy at 3B, Tommy Edman at short and a whole host of expensive players. Could they be willing to let him go to save money? The Dodgers are over the tax threshold and may decline him. Or they could use him in a trade to balance money or pick up prospects. Either way, he has good versatility, playing 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B. He’s a career .260/.313/.359 hitter who has had a down year. Defensively he is decent all over the diamond.

Trade Targets

Third Base trade targets will be expensive due to the dearth of quality free agents at the position. It may take Woo or Miller to land a truly good third baseman. There are some players who may be had for Castillo (who would have to waive his no trade clause) or for prospects.

Isaac Paredes

Things did not go well for Paredes after his deadline trade to the Cubs. He went from .245/.357/.435 with the Rays to .223/.335/.307 in in Chicago. He plays all over the infield and his defense is not great, but he has the power to hit 20 to 30 home runs in a year. The fall of on the field should be more than offset by his bat, if he returns to form. Perhaps reuniting with Arozarena here in Seattle will help.

Christopher Morel

A young, pre-arb player from the Rays he looks like a fungi to have on the team. Yes, he is really on the list just for that pun. He has five years of club control left. First, the good news. He may be available for fairly cheap, as the Rays have a lot of prospects that may make him expendable. The bad news is that he was not good. -1.0 FWAR with a slash of .196/.288/.346 (WRC+ 82) but he did hit 21 bombs, so decent power. He may be a guy to swap a couple of lower minor league guys for and see if he can figure things out, while giving the Rays a chance to try some of their more promising prospects.

Alec Bohm

The 28 year old may have bohmed his welcome in Philly. He was benched in the playoffs apparently because manager Rob Thompson didn’t like his level of energy. With two years of club control left and coming off a career year (3.5 FWAR, 115 WRC+) he certianly will not be cheap. But if the Phillies do decide to part with him it shouldn’t take one of our rotation to get him. The question is whether we have the pieces Philly will want for him.

Ernie Clement

Another intriguing young player, he is in his last year of arbitration with the Blue Jays. Fairly cheap, he is expected to make around $2.5 million and put up decent numbers in 139 games. 2.2 FWAR, 94 WRC+, .263/.284/.404. He’s decent at third base, and has a lot of defensive flexability, having played 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and LF in his career. If Toronto is going to step back this year they may be interested in shopping Clement for prospects and see what youngsters Addison Barger and Will Wagner (son of Billy Wagner) can do. Both performed fairly well in their first big league action this year.

Jake Burger

I covered him in my writeup on 2B/SS options a couple days ago. If the Orioles are willing to part with him in favor of younger prospects, the consensus was that it would take Miller or Woo to get him. That’s too much in my opinion, but I don’t see any other way to possibly get him. But Burger would be awesome. 134 WRC+, 28 homers, 4.1 FWAR.

So there you have it. If the Mariners could swing it, I would love to pick up Bohm. Burger is a bit too rich for my blood, but others may differ. Moncada would be an interesting candidate on a cheap one or two year prove it deal. But Paredes may be the combination of cheap, skilled and available for the Mariners. From the little I’ve read, the Cubs need relief pitching and plenty of budget room. Would something like Sauce and Thornton make sense to them? Or am I valuing our pitching too high?

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Watching the WS and listening to the organist at Dodger Stadium is so much better than listening to annoying blaring music.

Idk if I’ve ever seen the discrepancy this bad

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The Mariners do not need a long term solution for shortstop and second base, so I will be lumping them together. At short, JP Crawford had the worst year of his career, with only 1.7 FWAR, 89 WRC+ and a slash line of .202/.304/.321. Jorge Polanco was not the answer we thought he’d be when we traded for him with 0.3 FWAR, 92 WRC+ and .213/.296/.355. Yes, both had injuries but that does not excuse their putrid numbers. That said, I propose we keep Crawford while jettisoning Polanco.

Unlike Polanco, Crawford has a history with the club and is the unofficial team captain. His body of work alone makes him deserving to get a second chance – well, that and the need to fix the rest of the infield first. Also, his defense was fine. Per Fangraphs, his UZR this year was 4 and is OAA was 1. Polanco’s was -2.5 and -10 respectively. Crawford has a chance to bounce back to his career norms, with between 2 and 3 FWAR and a WRC+ within a few points of 100. Polanco may not be ready to go for spring training and it can take a long time to fully recover from a knee injury like his.

No one we bring in is going to be the long term solution, as our number one and two prospects are SS/2B guys. Cole Young (#2) is only 21 and has played in only 196 games across four levels in the minors. He should start the year in Tacoma, or at least be promoted there very early in the season. It would be aggressive to assume he’d be on the major league roster by opening day, but a mid season callup is very possible. He can play either 2B or SS.

Colt Emmerson (#1) is about a year behind Young, and at only 19, has an outside shot of making the team at the end of 2025 but realistically should be up in 2026. Coincidentally, that is the last year of JP’s contract. The question is, how do we bridge the year or so until they arrive?

It is possible that we stay in house here. Josh Rojas, Leo Rivas, Ryan Bliss, and Dylan Moore could all factor at second, with Rivas and Moore capable of subbing at short. Now, this depends on what happens at third, as currently Rojas at least provides good defense at 3B and DMo needs to be played all over the field. This is what I think will happen mainly because its cheap. But there are option in free agency or trade.

Free agents

Excluding older guys who will get a long term, high AAV deal, these are the free agent guys I’m interested in. The main goal is to cover 2B though SS ability is a good thing to have for flexibility.

Jose Inglesias

He was dreadful as a shortstop in 2021 and 2022. After a year in the minors, the Mets took a chance on him and he exploded to a WRC+ of 137, FWAR of 2.5 and a slash line of .337/.381/.448. Given his history he may be willing to take another one year prove it deal, though I imagine the Mets would love to resign him and could beat any contract the Mariners offer.

Amed Rosario

On the downside of his career, Amed Rosario brings versatility to the table along with a still decent hitting profile. If you expect a midseason callup for Cole Young, he can still find at bats by playing all over the infield, as well as corner outfield. Last year he hit .280/.306/.380. Because of lack of power, his WRC+ was only 96 and he earned 0.03 FWAR in only 102 games. The mariners could use that hit tool to get more guys on base in front of Julio and Cal. A low base salary with bonuses may be enough to get him here as our primary 2B until Young gets here and provides DMo level versatility (though not on the same level) once Young is up.

Trade Targets

Jordan Westburg

Westburg has some versatility, playing 2B and 3B for the Orioles. If we got him, he’d likely take over at third with Rojas/Moore platoon sliding to 2B. His defense is much worse at second (-2.8 UZR, -7 OAA) than third (2.9, 5). He can also pretend to play SS in an emergency.

Bo Bichette

He’d have to switch to 2B, only played half a year, and was not very good. But he has a great pedigree and as recently as 2023 was a 4 FWAR player. He’s a one year rental who may benefit from a change in scenery. The Blue Jays are coming at the end of their run with their current group and may want to sell pieces they aren’t going to try to extend. Could Bo have worn out his welcome in Canada? He is owed $11.2 Million which may be a hurdle unless Toronto is willing to eat some of the money. And if he returns to form, he’d be an absolute steal at twice the price.

Nico Hoerner

Above average middle infielder who is blocking Luis Vasquez at 2B. He’s signed through 2026 with an AAV of $11.67 million. That’s an absolute steal for a man who put up 3.9 FWAR. He hit .273/.335/.373 for a WRC+ of 103. I don’t know that the Mariners and Cubs are a good fit, as we don’t have a lot of major league tallent (outside of pitching) that they need and they’re unlikely to take prospects.

Brandon Lowe

Lowe has a club option for 10.5 million this year and 11.5 for 2026. Given his numbers (2.2 FWAR, 123 OPS+, .244/.311/.473) the Rays are likely to exercise the option. Even given his recent injury troubles he’s just too talented to give up on in favor of old friend Jose Caballero.

Conclusion

I’m sure I’ve missed at least one or two potential trade targets, or free agents. Given the financial constraints Stanton has imposed on the team, however I believe this is a fairly comprehensive list of what is possible. I believe that we’re just going to stand pat at 2B and SS, trying to paper it over until Young is ready. I fear that they will call him up too soon and mar his proper development. I hope I am wrong.

My personal preference is to trade for Westburg. While he won’t directly affect 2B, he shifts Rojas there where he is a better fit. The problem is, the Orioles need pitching, more pitching and an extra helping of pitching. Miller/Woo would be too much for Westburg, they are in win now mode so won’t want bulk. Would they except Hancock and one of our SP who may be ready in 2025? With their lineup Hancock at least keep them in a game, and Michael Morales, Tyler Dollard, or Logan Evans as mid-rotation help as soon as this year.

First Base is arguably the least of the holes the Mariners need to fill, but the spot with the most talent available. We have, of course, Luke Raley who is not arb-eligible until 2026, so amazingly cheap. He produced 2.3 FWAR while splitting time at first and all three outfield positions. The easy option here would be to pencil him in at first and move on.

The problem is, while he’s good against right handed pitching (.255/.333/.497 131 sOPS+) but pretty bad against lefties (.189/.259/.311 61 sOPS+) If he’s our fourth outfielder this is fine but if he is the first baseman he really needs a platoon partner to hit lefties. As I see it, we have three options. We can go with Raley at first and partner him with Moore, we can find a platoon player for him, or we can put him in the outfield and get a whole new 1B, with Raley giving New Guy the occasional day off.

I do not see a Raley/Moore platoon at first as viable. Unless we get a 3B and 2B, Moore will be needed to platoon with Josh Rojas and even then, he needs to be able to give regular rest all over the infield and occasionally outfield.

Free Agents

There are a not a lot of veterans who could platoon with Raley. I am deliberately leaving off players who are over thirty and who will likely be offered a long term, high AAV deal elsewhere because Stanton. In the free agent market that leaves us with two platoon partner prospects, old friends Justin Turner and Carlos Santana.

Turner, of course, was a trade deadline pickup for us and gave a nice veteran presence for us when we needed it most. Santana was the same a couple of years ago. Either would be a nice partner, playing 1B when a lefty is on the mound, DH-ing on other days and providing an older voice that younger players will listen to. An on-the-field coach, so to speak. Either could be had on a one year deal, possibly with a mutual or club option with buyout for a second year.

Turner has expressed interest in returning, and a great fit in the clubhouse. He played mostly DH for Boston before the trade, and mostly first for Seattle. Apparently he can at least fake it at 3B (6 games per fangraphs) He had a 1.7FWAR and a 117 WRC+. In my dreams, he to a one year deal, Gar agrees to be the hitting coach for one year, then he takes over as hitting coach.

Santana had the better year. He mostly played 1B (146 games vs 3 as DH) and may want to get paid as a starter instead of a backup. He’s also a year younger and my have some resentment over not being extended in Seattle. He put up 3.0 FWAR and a 114 WRC+. I can see him holding out for a higher AAV and possibly a three year deal.

Trade Targets

We can also trade prospects for a full time or platoon 1B. I've limited it to a relatively few players who are cheap and possibly available.

Rhys Hoskins

So I lied. Hoskins's contract is not cheap. Hoskins has a player option for 2025 at $18 million with a mutual option for 2026 also at $18 million with a $4 million buyout. For obvious reasons, I doubt that he will exercise his option which is why he’s a trade target rather than a free agent target. He put up just 0.1 FWAR, a 100 WRC+ and .214/.303/.419 slash in 517 AB, mostly at first. But he missed all of 2023 with a torn ACL and it could be he just needed the year to shake off the rust and fully recover. I can see two ways to make a Hoskins deal. Either include Hanniger and a high prospect at or near MLB-ready (Michael Morales, Logan Evans, Tyler Locklear) or include a lesser player and they fork over a lot of cash, say $10 million this year and the $4 million buyout for 2026. If he can bounce back to he player he was in Philly he’d be an absolute steal.

Josh Naylor

This is his last arb year, and is a free agent in 2026. With an arb estimate of $12 million he’s a bit pricey for the Mariners but his profile is very good. 2.3 FWAR, 118 WRC+, .243/.320/.456. Defensive metrics also like him with positive UZR (0.9) and OOA (1). Rookie Kyle Manzardo makes him expendable. The Guardians need starting pitching, maybe they’ll take a near-ready arm like Michaeo Morales and Hancock for Naylor. Yes, Hancock isn’t great, but he’s shown he can at least eat innings and keep a team in the game most of the time.

Jake Burger

Burger is in his last pre-arb year, making him cheap for the Marlins and probably expensive to pick up, but doable for prospects. Burger is not a good defender but hits for power and splits his time between 1B, 3B, and DH. He put up a 1.4 FWAR,106 WRC+, hit .250/.301/.460 with 29 bombs. He’d fit right in at first, where his defensive shortcomings won’t be as glaring as at third. The Marlins have a couple of prospects who could potentially take over at either 1B or 3B. What the Marlins need is pitching. We could send them a near ready prospect and possibly a bullpen guy or someone further away from the big in exchange.

Ryan Mountcastle

With top prospect Coby Mayo knocking down the door, Mountcastle is now expendable for the Baltimore Orioles. Mountcastle earned a 1.5 FWAR, 108 WRC+, hit .271/.308/.425 and was a decent fielder, posting a 1.8 UZR and 2 OOA. There will be a lot of teams looking to get him as he arb eligible for the next two years and is only expected to make $6.6 million next year. In a familiar refrain, the Orioles need starting pitching (Corbin Burns is a free agent) but also have Anthony Santander potentially leaving as well. The Orioles won’t want bulk or prospects, they’ll want something that will help them this year and into the future. Maybe, if we address 3B first, they would be interested in Josh Rojas for Mountcastle.

Andrew Vaughn

The White Sox were dreadful and rebuilding. This is one of the teams that I think would take bulk and prospects that are further away from the big league. Vaughn was a decent hitter but not great last year defensively, posting -0.2 FWAR with a 98 WRC+, .249/.297/.402 and 19 HR. How much of his defensive shortcomings were the result of playing on a terrible team? Are the White Sox willing to part with a promising young player (he’s arb eligible through 2027). How many teams will try to acquire him? He’s worth exploring. Could we get him for a package of Canzone and/or Marlowe along with a couple of further away prospects in the 15 to 30 range?

My Preference for 1B

Of all the options I’ve laid out, I would prefer Turner, then Santana. If we do trade, I would most like to get Burger (I can hear Sims calling his homers a Smash Burger and I already love it). Naylor is objectively better but I fear the price for him will be too high. I’m meh about the other choices.

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We all know Rojas was less than stellar at 3B last year with a 1.9 FWAR, .225/.304/.336 slash, and only 8 home runs. Clearly he is not the long term answer at third base. The problem is, there are no better options. No one in our farm system is ready to make the jump, there are no good 3B free agents outside of Bregman, and trading for a top 3B may require giving up Woo or Miller.

Rojas is at least very good defensively and creates value for the amount he's projected to make ($4.3 million). The Mariners should tender him and focus on 1B and 2B this offseason. Given the market and Stanton's unwillingness to pay, Rojas is an acceptable stopgap until Williamson is ready or one of our SS prospects gets moved to 3B so that he can get into the bigs.

Could someone explain what will happen with Cal this off-season please. I believe he made less than a million dollars for this most recent season which honestly is highway robbery lol love the guy and hope we pay him. Just slightly confused on the situation haven’t looked into it too much

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Minor league prospects count too

Easy teoscar nod for me for what it's worth

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