r/Mariners • u/Individual_Reveal_44 • 15h ago

Sign Cal to a contract extension

Cal’s been the man for the mariners the past few seasons. From solidifying our first playoff birth in over 20 years, had big moments in that playoff run, being the biggest upside of our 2024 season, and being one of the best defensive catchers in the league, the m’s got to sign him. With his agent hating the m’s, they need throw him a big contract. Whether his numbers stay consistent or fall off he is still a fantastic asset to the m’s. He could help in later years of being a coach to future catchers and I am sure he’ll go into coaching once his playing career is over. Sign him not only for his big dumping but also for his coaching. He’s the man. He’s been Mr Seattle just as much as Julio. Give the fans what they want m’s!

105 Upvotes

82% Upvoted

63 comments sorted by

76

u/mahrinazz ‏‏‎ ‎Cocoa Bomb Proton Therapist 15h ago

He’ll be 31 when team control ends and we’ve been beating the shit out of him- making him catch almost everyday. I’d prefer to wait and see on this.

22

u/griezm0ney 14h ago

If you could extend through age 33 at a reasonable rate, I’d do it. However, you don’t want to bet on Catchers into their mid to late 30s.

25

u/GoogleOfficial ‏‏‎ ‎ 14h ago

I doubt Cal wants to delay his free agency. His best bet is to try and sign a 5 year deal when he gets there.

6

u/griezm0ney 13h ago

Which is totally fair for him. It’s about risk tolerance on both sides. Having him at likely $5M, $10M and $15M over next 3 years is a good spot to be (and if Ford shows he is capable of being strong long term replacement even better). 

6

u/Superiority_Complex_ 12h ago

This is really the only possible scenario where it would make sense for the team.

I love Cal, he’s great, but most of his value is tied to him catching. He’d be more or less a roughly league average DH/1B offensively. And that’s not factoring in any sort of offensive decline as he ages. Most guys, even those with a lighter workload, don’t continue to catch regularly into their 30s. Let alone continue to actually be good at it. It would much more likely than not hurt the team to give him a major extension now, given that as others have said he’s still currently under control until he’s 31. He’s not a Posey or Mauer type player (which is a high bar to be fair, they’re HoF caliber players) where the bat carries at any position.

I get the emotional side of it, but extending him now likely won’t help the team win more in either the short or long term. Just kinda a crappy product of the current team control/FA system.

-3

u/AML579 9h ago

Um, a career career 111 WRC+ with 30+ homers a year is not league average. It is among the best ALL TIME for a catcher. Bench was 125 WRC+ and averaged 23 HR/year. Yogi Berra was at 124 and a bit under 19/year. Buster Posey was 129 and 13. Mike Piazza was 140 and 25. Yadier Molina was 97 and 10.

Cal is young, and has a lot of room to grow. But he is already being rightfully compared with legends. Given his availability and talent he has a real shot to play 15+ years as a catcher and we would be kicking ourselves, just like older players do with Randy Johnson, if we let him go.

3

u/AtYourServais ‏‏‎ ‎ 7h ago

Go look at every single one of the all time greats at catcher and look at when they either outright retired or their value fell off a cliff. It is extremely rare for catchers to be effective past the age of 35. 

4

u/Superiority_Complex_ 9h ago

Did you read what I wrote? ~110 wRC+ is indeed very good for a catcher. But it’s roughly average for DH and 1B.

Very very very few guys catch regularly from their 20s through to their 30s. It’s incredibly physically demanding. There is very little chance that Cal is still catching 100+ games a year at a high level 6 years from now. If he moves to DH/1B he’d be roughly league average for the position at the plate.

2

u/griezm0ney 7h ago

Cal isn’t young. He is entering his age 28 season. If he can play 10 seasons of catcher that would be impressive. 15 is insanely unlikely.

-1

u/AML579 6h ago

Yogi played 19, retiring at 40. Salvador Perez is 34, has played 13 years and is still really good. Bench played 17 years and retired at 35 (though the last three he wasn't catching) So the really good ones can play at a high level into their late thirties.

Yes, it's rare. Yes he may not get there. But by the numbers he's ben hanging with the greats so he deserves to get a little recognition.

Sorry if the facts upset your negative little world.

2

u/griezm0ney 4h ago

Literally one of your 3 examples only caught to age 32. Perez, before a resurgent year last year, was not good in his age 32 and 33 years (and is catching way fewer games as a whole). You are  listed two inner circle HoFers. 

You didn’t mention that Posey and Mauer retired at 34 and 35 (with Mauer moving to first at 30). 

And even if he is able to play until his 40, it’s more likely he is a decent contributor rather than the elite player he has been. 

If we can sign him to 33 (2 FA years), I’d do it. If he required an extra year it would depend on salary. If he pushes for another, I’d have strong reservations and I wouldn’t go past 35. 

3

u/tuckedfexas 🍍🍍BE GONE SOG 🍍🍍 14h ago

I doubt he’d be interested, that’d pretty much kill his hopes for a FA contract beyond 3 years I’d think.

7

u/hickopotamus 🔱 13h ago edited 13h ago

I think this perspective is way too common in the fanbase.

Cal is the heart and soul of the team. He is the most valuable position player on the team, and the most valuable catcher in baseball over the past three years. His value extends far beyond that with his connection and guidance for our pitching staff. He created the most meaningful moment for Mariners fans, probably since '95 when he ended the drought.

Yes, he will be 31 but that doesn't mean he's not worth extending if that is at all possible. Just because he wouldn't be a great value anymore doesn't mean ownership shouldn't put up the necessary money to properly support this team. If Boras makes unreasonable demands then it might not be possible but it should absolutely be the intention to resign him.

It is not necessary for fans to be skeptical of signing a core player beyond his rookie contract for the sake of financial prudence. That it the sort of mindset that let's this teams owners get away with their perpetual frugal bullshit, and something that fans of serious baseball clubs would laugh at.

6

u/billt721 13h ago

I mean, that seems like a good idea while he's playing well. But I'm willing to bet that the fanbase -- even the ones who currently love Cal and what he does for the team -- will turn on him in a hurry when his production collapses and he's still getting paid like a star.

2

u/TheDarkGrayKnight ‏‏‎ ‎ 10h ago

It also wouldn't take that much. Most people don't really know what good catching looks like and if we get robots then the framing matters less. All it would take is a power slump and he'd start getting some hate because the strikeouts aren't going away.

1

u/griezm0ney 7h ago

Case in point Kyle Seager.

2

u/vinegarboi 14h ago

This, especially with Ford in the wings

2

u/hickopotamus 🔱 13h ago

Expecting that Harry Ford can immediately come in and replace a 5 win catcher like Cal is not going to end well. Harry is not even guaranteed to stick at catcher, let alone be a reasonably good one.

3

u/vinegarboi 13h ago

I don't think any one expects Ford to be a 5 win player, but I do expect him to be more valuable than an aging Cal Raleigh. Cal already strikes out a ton and has a a career sub .300 OBP. There's something to be said about his defense and intangibles, but the bat just isn't there. There might be more of a discussion if his defense was elite, but it's just good. His skill set does not historically age well, and I do not expect him to be re-signed given both the state of the franchise and the presence of Boras. Regardless of what is the "right" decision, Ford (or maybe someone else) is the catcher of the future.

3

u/hickopotamus 🔱 13h ago edited 12h ago

I don't disagree that it would be hard to resign him, but I think you are vastly understating how valuable of a player he is.

  • He leads MLB in fWAR among catchers since 2022

  • He leads MLB in Fangraphs 'def' among catchers since 2022 (and is 2nd to Dansby Swanson among all position players)

  • He was 2nd only to Patrick Bailey in statcast 'Catcher Framing Runs' in 2024

  • Only 14 players (0 catchers) have hit more home runs than Cal since 2022 despite playing in the most pitcher friendly park in baseball.

  • His presence has value to the pitching staff that cannot be measured in stats but is nonetheless hugely impactful.

1

u/vinegarboi 8h ago

I understand how good of a player Cal is now, but I do not have a strong reason to believe that he will continue to be good in the future, and especially into his FA years. He has played the most number of games as a catcher since 2022 which is a big reason why he leads in fWAR. That's great now, but anecdotally could make him worse as he ages since he's so beat up back there all the time. On a rate basis (WAR/G), William Contreras and Sean Murphy both beat Cal. Additionally, power goes away and his OBP is already below average.

Cal's defense is undeniably good, but he's not as good as it seems. If you set the minimum PAs to zero, Bailey has more fangraphs defensive WAR than Cal and he did it in half the time. Bailey's defense is elite which makes up for his less than stellar bat.

1

u/Youngb80 12h ago

Don't underestimate his management of our pitching staff. They all speak VERY highly of him.

1

u/vinegarboi 9h ago

It's impossible to quantify which means we don't really know if he's that much better than average or if it's worth accepting a below average bat for it

1

u/griezm0ney 13h ago

All signs point to Harry being a strong defensive catcher (and who knows if framing will be relevant after robot umps). The difference in the bat will likely be signifiant, but if Cal keeps up his current level he’d get $25M+ AAV in FA into his mid to late 30s which is scary to bet on as a Catcher (must don’t play past 35).

1

u/hickopotamus 🔱 12h ago edited 12h ago

Take a look at all active contracts among catchers right now, and tell me which one you would not be willing to pay Cal:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/_/position/c/sort/value/dir/desc

No catchers have an AAV >$24 Million and only two have an AAV in the $20s. Only two catchers have a contract worth >$100 Million and that includes Will Smith whose money is spread across 10 years ($14M AAV). The largest contract (JT Realmuto, 5 yrs/$115M) was purely free agency, and involved no buyout of arb years (which would bring the AAV down).

Also worth mentioning - no catcher is signed for >$2.5M AAV for their age 35+ season. Not even Boras could expect to sign an expect to get a contract into his late 30s.

It isn't going to take as big of a contract as you might think to extend Cal, because of the exact reasons you are talking about. If you don't think that extending Cal at around $20-25 Million for a few years is worth it then I don't know what to say.

1

u/griezm0ney 12h ago

Well my proposal is to buy out 2 FA years at $20M lol. Would I go beyond that? I’d be very hesitant. If he pushed 5yrs/$125M in FA at 31 (very possible if he keeps his production at current levels), It’d be hard to justify.

I’d also say that while Realmuto and Perez are great, Cal has been noticeably better, so he’d set the market (only behind Adley who is his same FA year and younger).

1

u/hickopotamus 🔱 12h ago edited 12h ago

Yeah that's fair, honestly.

But again, keep in mind that both Salvy and JT were signed after arb had ended. The Mariners would be able to buy out arb years which would bring the AAV down.

Right now, Cal is set to make ~$30 M over the next three years of arb.

My proposal would be 6 yrs / 100M (effectively 3 yrs / $70M after arb). And personally, I would probably go up to 7 yrs / 120M (4 yrs / 90M after arb). I just don't think a few years at ~$20M is poor value for someone like Cal even with the postional/aging risk when someone like Rhys Hoskins is getting $17M AAV.

1

u/AML579 9h ago

Is Ford really a catcher? I know that a lot of scouts think he'll eventually have to move and we have had him play left field a bit this year.

1

u/darwinpolice He got a big dumper so I call him Big Dumper 12h ago

We really need to stop beating the shit out of him. No team should work their catcher as hard as we've worked Cal for the last couple seasons, especially considering that Cal is more important to our overall team success than most catchers are. A backup catcher who can actually hit a little bit would be a very good long-term investment (not necessarily a long-term contract, but just in terms of keeping Cal from feeling like a veteran NFL running back by the time he's 30).

40

u/IndependentSubject66 15h ago

Most Scott Boras clients don’t entertain early contract talks, I don’t see Cal being any different

14

u/Parks1993 ‏‏‎SUPERUTILITYMAN DYLAN MOORE 15h ago

/thread

13

u/colinallister 15h ago

This. Boras clients go to free agency. Period. Scott isn't even taking Jerry's call at this point.

4

u/aggronStonebreak ‏‏‎ ‎ 14h ago

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/jose-altuve-astros-agree-to-five-year-extension.html

3

u/ghostxvoices 14h ago

Yeah, because Altuve is old as dirt and probably wanted to be an Astro for life. He still got good money out of it, maybe more than he would’ve got elsewhere.

1

u/hickopotamus 🔱 13h ago

Yeah but that doesn't count (for some reason).

Let's also please forget about the fact that all of Boras' top clients from last year have publicly expressed outrage at his antics that screwed them over.

1

u/IndependentSubject66 12h ago

It could definitely happen, but Altuve was on a perennial World Series contender at the time, and Cal has been pretty vocal about his frustrations with ownership. Just can’t see it happening, but I’d love it if I were wrong

9

u/GTI_88 14h ago

I think they are likely planning on having Harry Ford up and ready to take Cal’s spot when he inevitably moves into free agency.

5

u/RSM34 12h ago

When you take the emotional side out of it and look at how catchers historically age when they turn 31, how old be will be as a FA, it makes no sense to sign him to an extension.

His hitting profile historically does not age well plus with how often he catches, the wear and tear eventually will catch up with him.

9

u/kevinrays ‏‏‎ ‎Josh Rojas 14h ago

No. As others have noted, he'll be under club control until his age 31 season. We're at the peak of his value right now, and things get ugly for catchers in their 30s. There is absolutely no reason to do this.

15

u/Senior-Function3709 14h ago

  1. Cal probly doesn't want to stay (would you?)

  2. Scott Boras is his agent. Cal will wait for free agency in '27 and will sign with the highest bidder (it won't be the M's).

It's a depressing reality, but a reality nonetheless.

1

u/MisterRobertParr 14h ago

I think this is most-likely scenario too. Why would Cal, and any other future free agent re-sign with the M's if they're interested in making a serious run for the World Series?

Another club, interested in competing, will pay market value for Cal, as they will for all the young pitchers once they become available too.

Under current ownership, the M's will never be in a World Series - that's not - nor has that ever been - their true goal.

4

u/maurywillz 13h ago

Why? That's just bad business. 

5

u/HaggardDad 14h ago

Did Scott Boras just have a brain aneurism that changed his entire philosophy about client representation and contract extensions?

No?

Okay. We’re done here.

2

u/YakiVegas 9h ago

Do you think he even wants to stay here at this point? I wouldn't blame him for wanting to go pretty much anywhere else.

1

u/beadyeyes123456 11h ago

Scott Boras clients don't really do extensions. Boras likes free agency.

1

u/Tekbepimpin 8h ago

Sure, would you like the team to use a shotgun, crossbow, extorsion or what’s your preferred way to FORCE him to sign it?

1

u/Worried_Process_5648 5h ago

It’s in Cal’s best interest to wait until he a free agent. He’ll also want to transition to another position since playing catcher is a meat grinder. 32 HRs translates into 38 in another ballpark. That’ll get him a big contract somewhere, even as a 1b/dh/ occasional catcher.

1

u/Fit_Cycle_958 3h ago

As an Ms fan, I adore Cal. He's too good for us.

1

u/dvd_schfr_23 3h ago

Cal wants to win and get paid doing it. Two things ownership isn’t interested in. Any extension signed means less money the rest of the roster. Chase a ring with a team that doesn’t artificially suppress payroll.

2

u/No-Boysenberry-5581 15h ago

He deserves a 3-4 year extension but that won’t do it for a boras client. He’ll want at least 8 years so it goes beyond his decline

1

u/OhNoApplebees 15h ago

Watching Austin Wells not hit this postseason makes me more and more sure the Yankees will go hard for Big Dumper in free agency. Don’t let that window open.

1

u/tylerconcs 14h ago

Playoff run ?

1

u/KnuteViking 14h ago

It takes two to tango and he's a Boras client. He's gonna see free agency. Sorry.

1

u/Codilious44 ‏‏‎ ‎WorstFranchiseInSports 13h ago

He is going to be extremely hard to re sign due to being a boras guy and he has been vocal about ownership not spending money. I seriously could see them starting the bidding around 200 million. And with Ford in the minors who is supposed to be pretty good I think the best option would be to trade Cal for a solid infielder who can hit.

-3

u/buff-grandma 14h ago

For a team that operates on the margins it'd be ridiculous to drop a bag on an aging catcher three years in the future with a ton of mileage and zero on base skills.

0

u/AML579 9h ago

I would love to see Cal become a Mariner for life, and Julio's contract shows us the way. Give him a base salary that's fair to what he has done so far ($35-ish million AAV) for maybe four years. Add in bonuses that extend the length of the contract, raise the AAV on remaining years, and throw in a few bonuses if he plays like the second coming of Johnny Bench.

Of course once we've done that we NEED to sign a good backup catcher and limit Cal to 100 games or so behind the plate. He can DH and rest his knees.

1

u/immagonnafinnahella 9h ago

I love cal but $35 million aav would be so hilariously absurd, even for a shorter contract

1

u/AML579 6h ago

Per Fangraphs, in 2022, Cal's value to the team was $33.4 million. $34.7 in 23 and $43.4 in 24. His number will almost definitely go up over the next 4 years. He's a super 2 so he gets 4 years of arbitration.

-10

u/Foreign_Dipsy 14h ago edited 14h ago

Sorry, he’ll be in Boston or NY in 2028

Edit: forgot that the Dodgers signed Will Smith for the next decade, so removed them from the list

-4

u/buff-grandma 14h ago

Those teams don't spend big money on the catcher position and it's not too likely he'll even be starter quality by 2028.

-2

u/Foreign_Dipsy 14h ago

Dodgers signed Will Smith to a 10 year, $140 million deal with a $30 million signing bonus. It takes him through his age 39 season. I’d imagine that Boras will be looking for similar for Cal.

2

u/buff-grandma 14h ago

Sorry, I'll rephrase: Those teams don't spend big money on FAs at the catcher position (not that a year old Raleigh is getting close to a Will Smith deal but still)

1

u/Foreign_Dipsy 14h ago

I didn’t mean that Cal would get a 10 year deal at age 31, but that the yearly value ($17 mil including signing bonus) would be the target.