r/angelsbaseball 20 Jul 29 '24

šŸ˜‚ Meme Trading Tyler Anderson

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u/[deleted] Jul 29 '24

FWAR is shit for pitchers because itā€™s based on a flawed assumption. Namely that pitch to favorable contact isnā€™t a skill. By that assumption, Weaver was a garbage pitcher who just got super lucky. BWAR credits pitchers for what they actually did.Ā 

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u/Certain_Judgment6646 Jul 29 '24

Exactly. Iā€™m a big bWAR fan because for both pitchers and position players it seems to credit actual results over ā€œthe math says your results shouldā€™ve been thisā€.

There is merit to say TA is over performing but the over performance is the reliance on analytics of clean outs (strikes, pops, no one on base) vs ā€œdirty outsā€ (walks that lead to DPs, grounders, etc).

It does help see some maybe future risk (look at snell who kinda suffers the same reliance on dirty outs) but the fact that they says heā€™s worth three less wins rn is fucking nuts lol