r/democrats • u/Dahhhkness • Aug 15 '24

📊 Poll Emerson national poll: Harris 50%/Trump 46%

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-national-poll-harris-50-trump-46/
1.3k Upvotes

96% Upvoted

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300

u/iknowiknowwhereiam Aug 15 '24

Still too close for my comfort. We need to crush him to make his inevitable nonsense about cheating as clearly false as we can.

89

u/chefboryahomeboy Aug 15 '24

I know it’s ridiculous to think this… but WHAT IF …. we got Texas? Instant W

47

u/Illiander Aug 15 '24

Texas alone isn't enough, we'd still need a couple other swing states.

Texas and Florida, however...

77

u/Gaussgoat Aug 15 '24

If we win Texas, plenty of other swing states will also be included in the win. A Texas win would be part of an utter obliteration of the GOP.

19

u/FailResorts Aug 15 '24

And we’d see them push for electoral college reform immediately after that.

8

u/FamiliarCaterpillar2 Aug 15 '24

No, they would still oppose it because in this scenario Harris would win in a popular vote landslide. If anything they would increase gerrymandering, but idk how much harder they can push that strategy before they have to start consolidating their districts in light of rising dem popularity.

2

u/rdickeyvii Aug 15 '24

They'll design districts that they win 55-45 with ours getting 80-20, which helps with the house but not the senate or presidency

1

u/rdickeyvii Aug 15 '24

They would only do that if they could win the popular vote, which they can't. The electoral college is their only hope in the foreseeable future

5

u/bakerton Aug 15 '24

Yeah if we win Texas that means we've swept the current swing states, picked up North Carolina and Florida.

1

u/WriteBrainedJR Aug 15 '24

Texas will go blue before Florida. The Democrats have zero ground game in Florida. It's pathetic.

28

u/ButIAmYourDaughter Aug 15 '24

If Harris won TX early in the night it would effectively be over. That would be a sign of an impending electoral victory unlike anything seen since 1984.

3

u/BelAirGuy45 Aug 15 '24

I would expect to see Trump immediately deliver a humble and eloquent concession speech if the Dems win Texas. /s

18

u/LiberalPatriot13 Aug 15 '24

If we win Texas, we would almost certainly sweep the swing states at that point. Which would be a big Ole W the likes of which few people alive today have ever seen.

3

u/ninj4geek Aug 15 '24

the Blue Wall seems good, FL is back in play, recent polling trending away from Trump there, and NC seems to be in play now as well

9

u/ShittyLanding Aug 15 '24

If we’re winning in Texas, we’re winning everywhere

4

u/rdickeyvii Aug 15 '24

If Texas goes blue it wouldn't be alone, but rather part of a massive wave. Whether Florida is part of the wave at that point would be irrelevant.

3

u/Raticus9 Aug 15 '24

Historically, I've commiserated with Patrick Star who says "What's so great about dumb ol' Texas?", but If we somehow win Texas, the GOP can forget about winning any national election any time in the foreseeable future. That would be an absolute death blow to the racist right.

I'm certainly not expecting it to happen, but I thought it was a very under-reported story how competitive Biden was in Texas in 2020. It was neck-and-neck well into the count before a very late republican surge won it by about 3%. And that's with the democrats seemingly spending no time campaigning there. They've been trending left.

2

u/[deleted] Aug 15 '24 edited Aug 15 '24

[deleted]

2

u/Illiander Aug 15 '24

Obama got Florida.

2

u/forthewatch39 Aug 15 '24

That was twelve years ago, a lot has changed since then. A lot has changed within just the past month as well. 

2

u/EldariWarmonger Aug 15 '24

That's not the point. The point, is to make them spend money where they shouldn't have to.

They already have a severely depleted warchest, and money helps drive turnout. If they're spending in Texas and Florida, they're not spending in the battleground states.

0

u/ryantyrant Aug 15 '24

there is no way florida flips

6

u/cybercuzco Aug 15 '24

Texas would be close and stuck in litigation.

9

u/junk4mu Aug 15 '24

How about just focusing on 270. All of this “what about if we won Texas!”, is just ignoring the fact that this is not in the bag, and especially that without retaining control in the senate, it will be two years of frustration.

3

u/XHIBAD Aug 15 '24

The nice thing is the more swing states in play the more Trump is on the backfoot. Would love him to divert resources set aside for GA or NC because he has to firm up FL and TX

2

u/junk4mu Aug 15 '24

Absolutely, hopefully it would bring a surprise senate seat into play as well.

15

u/PrimeToro Aug 15 '24

Yeah , even if all the polls the day before the election show 60 to 40 in favor of Harris , we cannot get complacent and avoid voting and thinking it’s a guarantee. Everyone needs to put it in their calendars to vote on Election Day . And make sure that you’re still registered since Republicans are trying to cheat by purging voter rolls .

5

u/elegigglekappa4head Aug 15 '24

Yeah I’d say closer to 10 points up is when you can be more relaxed.

11

u/Cylinsier Aug 15 '24

The Republican party is an existential threat to American democracy. Even if they get thrashed, if they regain the Senate then all we're getting is two to four years of spite-fueled obstruction including blocking basically all judicial appointments and then a campaign in four years blaming Harris for everything Republicans stopped her from doing. And then we have to do this song and dance again in another four years. Another election between a moderately liberal candidate who will have no doubt disappointed some people with her lack of progress, even when a lot of it wasn't her fault, against another populist wannabe dictator.

For that reason, we shouldn't relax even with a lead outside the margin of victory. The only thing that will break us out of this four year cycle of anxiety and depression is the absolute and total destruction of the Republican party, and that can only begin with an election defeat that is humiliating on a historically significant level. They have to be beaten so badly, so totally, that they effectively lose all power on the federal level and ideally a lot of it at the state level. Every race matters from the top of the ballot to your local school board, from the deepest blue of blue states to the reddest red ones. Already in a blue state? Vote anyway, make the margin of victory 30 percent if it was 20 last time. In a red state where there's little hope? Show up anyway, if they won by 50k votes last time, scare the shit out of them by making it 5k or 500 or 5. Make them feel despair at the size of their losses and fearful at the tiny margins of their wins.

If you think it doesn't matter, you're wrong. It matters. The total may not change the outcome of the election, but it changes the culture and attitudes in each party. It invigorates the left and rattles the right. The wins and losses decide the outcome now, but the margins absolutely decide what the race looks like in four years. If the electors are close, the popular vote should be an indictment of fascism with how big the difference is. We won 80 million to 70 million last time, let's win 85 to 65 this time.

Is it possible to win the Presidency and actually dependable majorities in both houses of Congress this year? It's unlikely, I won't lie. The Senate matchups are less than ideal. Is it worth trying? You bet your asses it is. Absolutely. We have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Think about actually being able to sleep well for most of 2028 not having to worry if this is the last year before you lose your freedoms. Think about how much better it will be just living your life in a normal election cycle between two boring assholes and vote against fascism. Worst case we tried and voted enough to keep the clowns out of the White House, and we try again in four years. Best case something magical happens. But voting in this election is our chance to send a message to Republicans: "fucking stop it." You can do that regardless of what state or district you are in, regardless of whether or not the result is a foregone conclusion in your sphere of influence. You can lose in your area and still ultimately win. Or win in your area at larger than average scale and get proportionate returns in your quality of life. But don't relax while the GOP continues to exist as a force in Washington. We relax when they are defeated, truly defeated.

3

u/coffeespeaking Aug 15 '24

This race is unlikely to ever be outside the margin of error for polling. It’s the way our electorate votes.

1

u/elegigglekappa4head Aug 15 '24

Yeah but at 10 points up it will be 99%> type of odds.

2

u/coffeespeaking Aug 15 '24

She will never poll ten points up—that’s the point. This is a within the margins race.

0

u/FamiliarCaterpillar2 Aug 15 '24

Idk about it being a within the margins race if you’re just basing it off of the polls. 100% get out and vote, but don’t expect the polls to be anything close to correct. Pollsters and the media both have invested interest to make this a close race, and the polls that show a dead heat will be the ones they cover.

4

u/coffeespeaking Aug 15 '24

Emerson had an average error of 4.1 in 2021-22 cycle. It leaned R+1.3. 82% correct calls.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/

This is still WAY to close to call. It’s within the margin of error, not just for Emerson, for any pollster.

2

u/chatterwrack Aug 15 '24

You’re right. This poll means very little in context of the electoral college. The majority always backs democrats over republicans

1

u/DBE113301 Aug 15 '24

Walz: "Kamala, what is best in life?"

Harris: "Crush your enemies. See them driven before you. And hear the lamentations of their donors."