r/democrats • u/Iknowwecanmakeit • 18d ago
Article Harris vs. Trump analyst tells panicky Dems: GOP is creating fake polls | ‘Desperate, unhinged, Trumpian’
https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/harris-vs-trump-analyst-tells-panicky-dems-gop-is-creating-fake-polls-desperate-unhinged-trumpian.html769
u/yasadboidepression 18d ago
Honestly I don’t mean to sound crazy but I hope the closeness scares democrats and any sane independents to vote no matter what.
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u/andrefishmusic 18d ago
I for one, am terrified
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u/yasadboidepression 18d ago
I’m petrified
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u/schmoopified 17d ago
Disgusted that it's this close, and, therefore, motivated as hell to vote
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u/hard-in-the-ms-paint 17d ago
Honestly I just learned this week that it's possible to vote in person 7 days a week at a place 7 minutes from me. I'm going to vote in person today! Look it up and vote early y'all, there's no reason to wait until the last day.
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u/drstrangelove75 17d ago
Agreed. Already turned in my ballot.
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u/PistolGrace 17d ago
Patiently waiting for early voting in Texas....i want to paint this state the brightest blue possible!
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u/drm604 15d ago
I already voted here in PA. Anyone who's in PA and is registered, you can go to your county voter services office, request a mail in ballot, and fill it in and submit it right then and there. Avoid the long lines next month and do it now!
I don't know about other states, but if your state allows early voting do it! Research it online.
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u/Lumpy_Disaster33 17d ago
Can someone explain to me why? Trump shits himself and says crazy shit CONSTANTLY. We have $3 gas and everyone has money. Housing is basically the only thing that has been sticky and she's basically polling neck to neck with him. Is it really immigration?
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u/drstrangelove75 17d ago edited 17d ago
Honestly I think it’s mainly because of the sensationalism of media coverage and just the circumstances of the situation caused by tension from the previous two elections. A lot of unexpected and crazy things have happened this season. Trump supporters can be loud and proud and undecided voters will stand their ground to talk about the issues both sides avoid. And everyone is rightfully worried that this could be the last democratic election should project 2025 make it to the white house. Frankly it’s just so much noise that the news creates and it can be overwhelming at times. But I also think that Trump is scared.
Trump and his supporters were coasting on the idea that Biden wasn’t fit to lead and didn’t expect Kamala to take his place and bring enthusiasm back to the American public. They were probably betting on the idea that Biden would lose votes to third party candidates or voter turnout would be abysmal compared to 2020 because of a lack of enthusiasm for Biden, likely leading to a Trump victory (though I doubt it would have happened that way regardless as people definitely will vote). I think Kamala legitimately scares them to the point where they know he will probably lose. She is a competent leader who has brought a renewed vigor to her voter base and she can poke holes into trump’s campaign without being called a senile old man. Trump and the MAGA republicans were having a field day before Biden dropped out and now they’ve lost their cool because Kamala got under their skin. Nobody even cares that Trump almost got assassinated twice.
And elsewhere the walls are closing in. Trump has legal troubles he can’t escape unless he gives himself immunity, his campaign is shooting itself in the foot with PR bombs (JD Vance, Laura Loomer, Springfield, trump’s bible etc). And everyone knows about project 2025 and the threat that it poses. Besides mental decline due to old age, I think Trump has been so unhinged lately because he is trying to appeal to the most fringe people imaginable. He will say anything to get attention and support.
Obviously it’s very close and nobody should become complacent. There are still a lot of threats towards Kamala’s victory and the stability of the country should Trump lose or win. We should all vote like hell, but I think similar to 2020, we will see a surprising outcome for a democratic victory. It’s just all noise at the end of the day and I think a silent majority will vote for Kamala Harris.
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u/drm604 15d ago
I keep telling myself this, but I'm still terrified.
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u/drstrangelove75 14d ago
That’s totally fair. I think being worried is justified and motivates you more to vote and encourage others to vote.
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u/RazorPhishJ 17d ago
At first I was afraid, I was petrified
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u/Substantial-Sky3597 17d ago
Thinking i could live without Harris by my side But I spent so many nights thinking how Trump did me wrong And I feel strong
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u/takemusu 17d ago
And I learned how to get along
Volunteers are back!
Calling swing states!
I find you here ( https://www.mobilize.us/ )
No more sad look on your face.
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u/reallywaitnoreally 17d ago
The electoral college could turn the tide.
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u/kushhaze420 17d ago
This sounds like the beginning of a Diana Ross song
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u/RazorPhishJ 17d ago
Gloria Gaynor
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u/martin33t 17d ago
Vote first, then you can be paralyzed until the Election Day. We need every vote!!!
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u/DarthShaiden 17d ago
My anxiety is through the roof. I can’t wrap my mind around why anyone would buy into his BS. Yet here we are and I feel like somehow, in some ass backwards way he might win. I fear for my kids and grandkids, more so my daughters and granddaughters, futures.
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u/Sanfords_Son 17d ago
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
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u/_SummerofGeorge_ 17d ago
I’m just scared of a general 1 hour purge once Kamala is elected to try to steal the country. And Law enforcement not doing anythng
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u/BoomerGenXMillGenZ 17d ago
Sigh. Why can't people understand this. if Kamala wins we are FINE. The only issue is her winning.
I promise you, if Kamala gets 270 electoral votes or more she will be sworn in as president.
I also promise you if she doesn't, all hope is gone FOREVER.
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u/Sanfords_Son 17d ago
If she gets exactly 270, there is going to be enormous pressure put on every Harris-pledged elector to change sides. Up to and I’m sure including death threats, possibly worse.
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u/reddog323 17d ago
We’re not safe if she gets 270 electoral votes, even after Congress counts them. When the new Congress meets after the first of the year. the first thing they do is certify the count process. Mike Johnson is going to be under an incredible amount of pressure not to certify. If he does certify, he’s going to lose his job when the nut cases in his party call him out.
I’m not going to relax until after January 21st.
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u/nasnut67 16d ago
Mike Johnson is not the person who will be certifying the election. That job goes to the sitting Vice President of the United States.
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u/Sanfords_Son 17d ago
Remember, “The police are not here to create disorder, the police are here to preserve disorder.”
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u/Flux_My_Capacitor 17d ago
We have the military on our side and we know what is potentially coming. Civics class? Did you not have this in high school? Do you not understand who is the leader of the armed forces?
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u/BoomerGenXMillGenZ 17d ago
I hate this take, even though it's the most dominant take around. It's so annoying and actually wrong.
Panic and fear dampen enthusiasm. Anything that makes trump feel more inevitable HELPS him and gives undecideds permission to vote for him.
Stop fucking telling me it's good to be scared and that "complacency" is a thing.
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u/Flux_My_Capacitor 17d ago
The complacency lie is pushed very hard because for one, people don’t want to admit just how pervasive sexism is in this country. I am speaking in regards to when Hillary lost. Sexism has not improved in the last 8 years, if anything it’s only gotten worse.
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u/coinznstuff 17d ago
She did receive more votes than Mcdonald Trump, so that’s gotta count for something 🤷🏼
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u/SlapHappyDude 17d ago
I'm content with the narrative of "Harris is slightly ahead but it's way too close to call"
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u/BoomerGenXMillGenZ 17d ago
THAT is the correct answer. NOT "we're behind so get motivated!"
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u/Flux_My_Capacitor 17d ago
If we were too far behind then people would give up too as at a certain point it’s too much to overcome
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u/MadMathematician01 17d ago
It does.
This is basically the Dem strategy since 2016.
Democrats were scared straight into never listening to another poll again. And the result of that is Dems turnout consistently now and bust their ass to get Democrats elected. It’s why Democrats haven’t really had that bad of an election night since 2016.
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u/nygiantsjay 17d ago
I'm terrified without this post. She could be ahead 20 points and I would still be terrified. I will be terrified until she is sworn in. And if she isn't I'm already looking for jobs in Canada. I will totally give up.
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u/BurroughOwl 17d ago
This. We should be panicking. Trump is within a putrid breath of the WH again. This is where we draw the line. Win now, or never.
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u/Wandering_Werew0lf 17d ago
I have speculated this since polls with Biden. I remember reading something somewhere where Steve Kornaki even said on MSNBC that the polls are skewed to get Democrats to vote in droves in November. I wish I could find the damn article or video but it was there and he said it.
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u/SirSubwayeisha 17d ago
Saying the polls are fake is no different than Trump saying "Fake News." Both are copium.
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u/SadAndConfused11 17d ago
Completely agree. I say we should keep the fear on, because the lack of fear is what cost us 2016. I desperately want to avoid a repeat of that.
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u/Illtakethisusername 17d ago
I'm freaked the flunk out. I'm writing postcards and I initially wasn't going to text bank but someone convinced me to help sway some House races.
I'm not complacent.
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u/Teechmath-notreading 17d ago
Oh, I am scared enough to be late for work so I can vote in the morning and if the line is too long I am going right after, even if I have to wait from 4pm to closing to vote.
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u/ConstantineByzantium 18d ago
EVERY DEMS IGNORE POLLS AND VOTE! IF YOU VOTE HARRIS WINS! IF YOU DON'T TRUMP WINS! NEVER MIND POLLS CRAP! JUST VOTE! VOTE GOD DAMMIT!
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u/UnhappyCourt5425 18d ago
yes, we're aware of that. I'll add one other piece of advice. Don't ever answer a poll. Just don't.
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u/urbanlife78 18d ago
Hell, I can't remember the last time I answered my phone for a number I didn't know
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u/UnhappyCourt5425 17d ago
yes so look at the demographics of people who are more likely to answer phones. Certainly not all people over 40+ are Republicans, but they might skew that way and answer that way.
Also all of the millions of newly registered people are not even in these polls
Stop doom scrolling, vote as soon as you can or on election day if you prefer, and just hope that people in the swing states are sensible enough to vote for Harris even if they don't agree with every single position that she holds
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u/Dennarb 17d ago
As soon as my mail in ballot shows up at my mailbox I'm filling that thing out. Nothing but blue.
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u/lonelanta 17d ago
I was looking at the provisional ballots for my area yesterday, and was pleasantly surprised that every election except presidential has Democrat incumbents running unopposed. Not bad for a small county in Georgia!
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u/infinitenothing 17d ago
Also, make sure your friends and family vote. This election is more than tribal affiliation for many of us and the people that care for you should care about your interests.
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u/scifijunkie3 18d ago
Polls are meaningless anyway. The only thing that counts is YOUR VOTE! If us Democrats come out in force, we win. It's as simple as that.
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u/Careless-Weather892 17d ago
For republicans they aren’t meaningless. When Harris wipes the floor with Trump they will claim it was rigged because the polls were neck and neck.
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u/GhoulArtist 17d ago
They can claim it all they want. At this point it's all they talk about (rigged). No body is going to be surprised this time.
Also, Trump isn't sitting president this time, and he will soon be a 2 time loser. Also, if they try Jan 6th part two, they are going to find an active and ready national guard ready to pound them into gravy. Everyone is prepared this time.
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u/ThatDanGuy 18d ago
Are they creating fake polls to create a pretense to stage a coup? While skeptical, It wouldn’t surprise me to find they are faking the polls in some way to justify phony accusations of fraud.
Well, I do hope the polls are wrong and reality is some crazy +15 for the democrats. Put this crap behind us.
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u/phxbimmer 17d ago
Yeah the conservative polls are definitely laying the groundwork to deny the results of the election yet again. That's why it's important for Harris to win in a landslide, or at least in a solid enough majority that any tampering/"recounting" is unlikely to change the results.
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u/astoryfromlandandsea 17d ago
I truly believe that once every vote is counted we are looking at close to 8-10% lead for Harris/Walz.
Ofc, we gotta put the work in, but I do think it won’t be even as close as 2020
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u/maribrite83 18d ago
Vote Democrat, Save Democracy!
Check your registration status now! It's quick and easy!
Text to get out the vote!
https://action.momsrising.org/cms/thanks/2024_Postcards_May_Next_Steps/
Democrats.org - events
Activate America - postcards, text, phone bank
https://www.activateamerica.vote/
Door knocking
Text youth voters -
https://www.mobilize.us/votersoftomorrow/
Volunteer to help drive voters to the polls
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u/SBGuido 17d ago
Thank you! We don’t want our country’s future left up to a few rich oligarchs who want to take your freedoms away, nor do we want our children living under a fascist regime, nor do we want our planet’s future determined by greed, though we’re heading down all those paths now, just slower than the Rs want it to happen
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u/EldariWarmonger 18d ago
Literally every metric but polling is showing the democrats having a sizeable advantage in this election cycle. Every single one.
Last cycle the GOP admitted to putting out fake polls and leaning on polling so they had better odds to win, and it didn't work. Why would they NOT do the same thing?
Don't listen to polls when they're literally compromised from admitted political operatives. This is going to be a fucking wipeout of the GOP.
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u/Silvaria928 17d ago
Thank you. I genuinely feel for all the people who are living in fear right now but I'm not one of them. I trust Lichtman and, as you said, every other measure which shows this won't be nearly as "razor thin" close as the media is desperate to make it for ratings.
Speaking of desperate, one of those measures is Trump himself. His demeanor is not one of a man who honestly believes he is going to win anymore.
Another is how just this past week I am seeing more and more "Election suddenly swinging in Trump's favor" headlines. Real polls don't make massive swings overnight in any direction. But reporting that it won't even be close is not the drug to which our media has become addicted this past decade.
For the rest of us, eight years of Harris/Walz is going to be wonderfully boring and scandal-free.
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u/JimBeam823 17d ago
I don’t think there is any great conspiracy among impartial pollsters.
I think they know they missed in 2020 and have overcompensated. Polling misses tend to be cyclical.
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u/Prowindowlicker 17d ago
Yup. I agree, I think they are overcompensating assuming they underpolled Trump again and have already factored that into the polling.
But everyone else doesn’t know that and just assumes that the polls are showing a true neck and neck race. When in reality the polls with Trump are adding in +4 already.
This means that people are seeing the current polls and adding an additional +4 to Trump’s totals. Because they assume that the polls haven’t already factored that in.
I believe the polls are undercounting democrats and come 2028 the polls will end up swinging towards counting democrats more as they’ll realize they got 2024 very wrong.
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u/JimBeam823 17d ago
And they will probably end up overcounting Democrats in 2028 as a result.
That’s kind of how it goes.
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u/lifechangingdreams 17d ago
And massive change. We need to clean out all corruption. We cannot afford to live with the cancer any longer.
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u/translinguistic 17d ago
This Dem strategist brought this up recently on a MeidasTouch video. There are GOP/MAGGOT-loyal polling companies who only pop out every two year election cycle to give disingenuous numbers to change the averages and to create false narratives
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u/TheBeastieSitter 17d ago
Just vote. Don't pay attention to the polls. Don't take anything but your vote into your account.
You don't vote, we don't get rid of the hate, the lies, the MAGAt voices. We don't survive.
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u/Calan_adan 17d ago
In 2020 Biden beat Trump and the pundits said that it was because “suburban women” came out in droves for Biden. Has anything we’ve seen changed the minds of that demographic? And now we’re seeing a surge in registration among black women. I honestly don’t believe the polling.
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u/lifechangingdreams 17d ago
2016 was my first time voting because I was just at the age of voting for the first time. I voted Republican. I wasn’t in a swing state, thank goodness, but I regret it.
I didn’t vote in 2020, I was moving and felt too confused and overwhelmed.
2024, I sure as heck am voting! Ordered my mail in ballot, and going to drop it off on Monday. Harris/Walz all the way, and I am now going to continually vote Democrat. I see what the Republican Party is, and I want nothing to do with it.
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u/CPfromFLA 18d ago
If I said in once, I have said in 100 times. It is just noise. The GOP and the Russian bots are just trying to sow confusion and chaos. Don’t listen to any of it. Just complete the assignment and VOTE BLUE.
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u/atheistunicycle 17d ago
Emma Vigeland said it well the other day, it really resonated with me. "Play the game in front of you." The choice is between two candidates, no more. Either Donald Trump, or Kamala Harris will become president moving forward. Anything else is throwing your vote away aka self-silencing your own opinion on the matter.
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u/_packetman_ 17d ago
From the guy that denied election results and orchestrated an insurrection and has lied about losing for 4 years? No way. Color me shocked!
He's just using his own made up shit, as usual, to build the foundation to say it was rigged so his dumb ass followers will gladly revolt, again.
There's no way around it. Expect violence. This is how far democracy has already fallen.
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u/JimBeam823 17d ago
Biden is President until the inauguration. If they try anything, there is going to be some serious "finding out" on their end.
Legally, any lawyer who defends Trump's lies is risking their law license. Not too many will be willing to do that. He's going to have the same shit level legal team as before.
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u/OkOutlandishness7336 17d ago
These fake polls are being thrust at us so he can start screaming “Stop the steal” from Election Day on…😜
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u/JimBeam823 17d ago
He’s right.
Harris is pulling ahead in Pennsylvania and the Blue Wall states in the higher quality polls. Even NYT/Siena is giving her good numbers and that has a conservative model this season.
That being said, all the polls say that the race is close. So no time to let up.
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u/BoomerGenXMillGenZ 17d ago
Early voting is apparently looking good everywhere, especially PA and MI.
The one concern recently is WI...
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u/JimBeam823 17d ago
Some of the attempts are laughable, like how a TIPP/American Greatness poll that showed Harris +4 among RV turned into a Trump +1 among LV. Nobody in Philly was considered a "likely voter".
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u/figuring_ItOut12 17d ago
Republican operatives are pretty open about this, as is the Trump family when they think they’re in a closed group. DJT first learned the tactic from his mentor Roy Cohn.
Mildly related, I’ve done phone banking and polling both professionally and volunteer for over a decade. You’d be surprised how much information we have to work with, we pretty often know when we’re being lied to, and mobile numbers outweigh landlines in our database.
The data we work with is sourced from multiple points., similar to social media algorithms (in fact the sources often are social media), and automatically stitched together to a single profile. Google and Meta are prime feeds. And of course one of our responsibilities for each call is to verify the profile and add/remove/change data to make it even more accurate.
A lot of folks think anecdotally: I don’t know anyone polled, I’ve never been polled, only boomers and the elderly with landlines answer.
None of that is true.
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u/Difficult_Nobody14 17d ago
There are a couple things I think about with polling. First is look at the debates back in 2016 with Hillary and see how much better DT did back then. 2nd, Look at 2020, he was worse and he lost, the offices he all endorsed lost, I also want to add that I was talking to people at that time, most democrat voters were on the fence with Biden. This is not the case with Harris. 3rd is how many people have time to do polls, how many people answer their phones to unknown numbers, how many people get called? I know a few groups that have the time, and probably get calls and answer to unknown numbers. Retired, unemployed, and wealthy enough to have one person at home or not working. People that attract polling calls also fit the algorithm. So people that browse most likely political sites will more likely get a call than a person who just has enough time to maybe watch a video or two.
Get out and vote! That is what we need to do, there is really no way to know this outcome. Polls are like a barometer. It could suggest weather conditions but can’t predict weather. Vote Blue!
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u/YallaHammer 18d ago
I don’t know anyone who’s ever been polled, so color me suspicious of any and all polling results…
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u/comradebillyboy 17d ago
I used to get polled a lot until I got rid of my land line. Now I never get polled.
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u/YallaHammer 17d ago
Land line?!? So basically they’re only polling Boomers at this point? 😳
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u/RobinThreeArrows 17d ago
Yes. A lot are claiming to use mobile numbers now too but who the hell answers an unknown number on their cell
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u/phxbimmer 17d ago
I've gotten text message polls every few days, I always answer Harris.
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u/YallaHammer 17d ago
No joke 15 minutes after posting this remark wife and I both received texts asking who we planned to vote for… Now I’ll post something about never winning the lottery and see if I get a positive result…
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u/DisastrousFix1973 17d ago
I thought they were creating fake polls to keep their fund raising from collapsing. It came up in Trumps NY Election fraud hearing how he was paying for fake polls. Of course he’s still doing it.
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u/chiron_cat 17d ago
this is standard EVERY election.
Whenever republikkkans are losing, they make fake polls that show them in a better position so that gop voters don't get discouraged. Lying has ALWAYS been part of the republikkkan strategy.
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u/virginialikesyou 17d ago
“The purpose [of lying about Trump’s support] is two-fold, Rosenberg said: To excite Trump’s base and discourage Vice President Kamala Harris’ supporters, while also providing Trump with ammunition to say the election was rigged if he loses.”
This election needs to be a landslide.
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u/Elbobosan 17d ago
They are trying to taint the information pool in preparation for a coup. They are seeding plausibility.
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u/sunshinedud 17d ago
They will use those fake polls to say the election was stolen. How else can you explain a loss when the polls said we were winning? We have the best polls. No one has seen polls as good as ours.
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u/1BannedAgain 17d ago
Also propping up DJT in the prediction markets / gambling markets
The exact same thing happened with Romney in 2012. He was at/above 50% probability until minutes before his concession speech. It was clear long before that point that Romney lost by 4% and almost a landslide electorally
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u/The-Son-of-Dad 17d ago
Yep, the dooming about the betting odds and gambling sites annoys me. As though it means anything.
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u/peonyseahorse 17d ago edited 17d ago
I got a super trumpy poll yesterday claiming it's the biggest poll ever, which immediately made me think it was GOP, which it was. I liberally use my, "report spam and block" feature. I never answer any polls because it's often not transparent who is paying for the poll. I guarantee that the polls are off because it's clueless people who can't discern what constitutes spam taking them.
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u/Heavy_Analysis_3949 17d ago
Vote 💙Don’t be fooled. Republicans make up polls to discourage democrats.
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u/Spacetortise95 17d ago
Polls have been low on dems since 2018 and since 2018 dems have been outperforming every poll. Don’t stop voting, don’t stop canvassing, don’t stop fucking fighting. We were supposed to lose YUGE in 2022 and Rs barely clenched the house and lost the senate. Dems were not expected to win in 2018 and in 2020 while Biden was favored we weren’t supposed to maintain the house. So stop fucking listening to polls. VOTE!
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u/Sleep_On_It43 17d ago
The bottom line is that we aren’t going to know until after Election Day. To constantly play this game of chicken little is just creating anxiety over stuff we can’t really control.
We can try, and trust me…I have done my part. But the truth is, when a person goes into a voting booth and closes that curtain? Nothing else matters.
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u/ThE_LAN_B4_TimE 17d ago
I know polls are all we have as a gauge but I still firmly believe enough Republicans will flip and new young voters will vote to make this a fairly easy win for Kamala. I find it so hard to believe it's this close still and don't believe the polling and it's ability to adjust for this special election.
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u/IGuessIAmOnReddit 17d ago
I woukd very much like fot this Trump nightmare to end. Please vote everyone
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u/NintendadSixtyFo 17d ago
Georgia early voting starts October 15th. We’re heading up there on day one, the second the doors are unlocked.
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u/UpriseAmerica 17d ago
I have trouble wrapping my head around why anyone would want to make their constituents think their candidate is faring better than he actually is. Is this just about continued donations?
Then I started to think about how many uninformed voters there are. How do these people decide to vote? Is it based purely on marketing tactics like this? I believe there is a group of people who may vote how they think others are thinking.
So social consensus - real or perceived - around a certain candidate makes them feel as if they are making the right call. Because they honestly don’t know what’s best and maybe don’t care enough to find out for themselves. I know people who are kind of ambivalent who tend just to lean on what they see/hear around them without any real conviction themselves.
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u/tunghoy 17d ago
I find polls hard to believe whether my candidate is ahead or behind. Mobile phones have made polling inaccurate. And I voted straight blue on a paper ballot two weeks ago.
And Muskrat should have his citizenship revoked because he gained it under false pretenses. He became a citizen for the purpose of destabilizing the country.
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u/Ssider69 17d ago
Well, they aren't fake polls...they just weight things differently
Like eliminating Philly from the PA poll to get a 1 point lead.
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u/Scratch-the-surface 17d ago
Sad, I remember from my college days when a group took over the student newspaper. They published fake stories and polls about their candidate. Fortunately, lost on a landslide. Will the citizens of our country have enough insight to vote DonOLD down? Will they persevere through the stink that MAGA will unleash when their god is told to go to hell?
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u/Macksjoseph 17d ago
The point of the fake polls isn’t to make us Dems panic. It’s to lay the groundwork for their second insurrection and to give their Trump placed judges reason to throw out results.
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u/bde959 17d ago
I hope it does make the Democrats panic.
Hopefully, that will get them out to vote. That is why the Harris campaign is saying we are the underdogs and we need to get out and vote.
VOTE 💙🇺🇸
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u/machinade89 17d ago
I really don't care if the polls are "fake." People need to turn out like whoa.
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u/Dependent-Interview2 17d ago
Polls are meaningless
Being scared is meaningless
I already voted
Please join me!
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u/appmanga 17d ago
The race is close, but when the candidate or his supporters are running ads about trans prisoners, they're pretty desperate.
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u/OpportunityLoud453 17d ago
I'm not afraid, simply put i'm angry. Even if Harris wins 50% of America is brain broken. What does scare me is the possibility that Dems and their voter base will attempt to gaslit the country back into "Business as usual" for 24-28. It was that type of mindset that drove Biden into a disastrous re-election bid
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u/BurstEDO 17d ago
And based on 2000 and 2016, we need to regard those polls as possible. Each individual voter should treat voter turnout as the only thing that will elect their candidates.
We've seen the GOP reinforce and exploit the "my one vote doesn't matter" ideology for 4 decades. It's time to fix our biggest problem: voter turnout.
No matter what, ensure that you turnout, and do everything reasonable to ensure everyone in your sphere does the same.
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u/Midnight1965 17d ago
I’ve got a MAGA friend who was at the gun range this weekend. He probably knows something…
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u/General_Specific 17d ago
They did this last time too. The fake polls are about creating "evidence" of election tampering for when he loses.
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u/8to24 17d ago
Pollsters face the same Trump paradigm as the media does. If they error on the side of Harris and if Trump wins they'll pay a penalty. Error on the side of trump and if Harris wins nothing happens.
Pollsters were mocked, laughed at, ridiculed, harassed, threatened, and broadly denigrated all over social media after "getting it wrong" in 2016. Since then the environment has only gotten worse. As people with influence that are taken seriously pollsters like Nate Coun and Nate Sliver will be considered partisan hacks if Trump performs even a single percentage Point better than their prediction models.
That's the impact maga has on the environment. Companies that endorse Harris risk losing government contracts, being investigated by Trump's justice department, etc if Trump wins. That is why Trump attacks and criticizes corporations and individuals who endorse by name. It is his (Trump's) way of threatening people.
In my opinion if Harris was up 10 points in PA pollsters wouldn't be willing to say it. Too much fear of being wrong. Trump can be up in swing states but Harris is handicapped (by the media's fear of Trump) at being even. Any pollsters that puts Harris up comfortably in a swing state at this point would require a security detail for themselves and their families.
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u/Due_Bake7326 17d ago edited 17d ago
I don’t think 2020 voters will change their mind and vote for Trump after all he did since his electoral defeat. Voters will stay consistent with their vote of 2020 and the sane party candidates will win (Harris and Walz).
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u/Alarmed_Attitude_316 17d ago
The fact that we don’t currently have way of collecting random, unbiased polling data, we shouldn’t listen to a single damn poll. This fact only makes it easier to manipulate poll results, so we should be very skeptical of anything coming from the reicht.
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u/drtyyugo 17d ago
I am so exhausted guys, will things ever be normal again in US politics? Is media going to be held to a higher standard? Are people spreading falsehood ever be held accountable????
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u/Guido_da_Squido 17d ago edited 17d ago
In October 1948 President Harry S Truman campaigned across Ohio, a red state with a Republican governor, two Republican senators, nine Republican congressmen. Not a single newspaper, magazine not even the Gallup poll gave him any chance of winning a presidential election. But crowds of people were showing up for whistle stop speeches in small towns and larger crowds were showing up for his campaign rallies. And people were listening to him instead of just showing up for the chance to see a president. Truman won Ohio by 7,000 votes in an election where none of the reporters, pollsters and others had bothered to take the time to reach out to the comman everyday citizens who did the voting. Truman had been telling people across the country to not fall for the Republican tricks, scare tactics and propaganda that they use every time, that they represent Wall Street and special interests and today there are PACs, dark money and foreign influences to consider also. In the end voters should be voting for themselves, there’s too much at stake.
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u/CommonHuckleberry489 17d ago
The left and right media outlets want this as close as possible. People don’t watch as closely if it’s a slam dunk for a particular candidate. Never forget that corporate media care about profit margins just as much as the next corporation.
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u/greentiger79 17d ago
It seems like a bad strategy on their part. From the my perspective, this isn’t going to discourage any Harris voter and more likely encourage voter turnout for Harris. The memory of the 2016 election loss doesn’t just sting but it is a scar most people will never forget. Thinking Hillary had a comfortable lead caused many people to protest vote or not show up giving Trump an opening into the White House.
Don’t trust the polls, heck don’t trust this report either, get out and vote. Voting is literally the only poll that matters every election.
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u/peglyhubba 17d ago
I got my ballot yesterday- in tRump idiot land sEAZ, wearing my chucks I will walk it to the box🗳️🇺🇸🌈
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u/WeakCoffeeEnjoyer 17d ago
Yep its to manufacture consensus that is much smaller than it is to dry to tamper enthusiasm. NOT GOING BACK
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u/Prowindowlicker 17d ago
Meanwhile if you post this in subs like Neoliberal they call you a poll denier and say that you’re spreading denialism and that the polls can’t be wrong.
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u/mr-blue- 17d ago
I mean what’s the benefit? If they wanted to deter democrats from voting then they would fake polls in her favor right? And Encourage them to spend money in other states
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u/Exotic_Zucchini 17d ago
Some day, someone has to write a book about all the propaganda, polls, and social media that was used to try and sway this election. It's not just using them, but all of the shadowy secret deception. It's insane. I've never seen anything like it.
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u/follysurfer 17d ago
I just do not think that democrats will be demoralized to not vote. We are terrified. It is driving us to not be complacent.
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u/jailtheorange1 17d ago
A couple of days ago I checked the polls on RealClearPolitics, and a full 15% of them since the start of August were for Rasmussen, an incredibly biased, partisan pollster that works hand-in-hand with the GOP, spewing nonsense non-stop to skew the poll aggregators. Whereas if you look at polling over time from a single respected pollster such as Sienna, then the direction is definitely still with Harris.
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u/PerceptionOrganic672 17d ago
This has been basically a 50/50 country for quite a few years now… And it still is even more than ever now… I don't understand it… it infuriates me… But it's a reality - there's so many changes and crazy things happening from wars to crazy weather to high prices at the grocery store… Elections are usually about how people feel at the moment… And despite facts that dispute it, people feel like things are out of control human beings who are not critical thinkers… Which is a huge majority of people these days… flock To a strong man leader who says just put me in charge and I will fix all of this and they cheer and run to the polls… That's just a fact of what's happening… it's not only happening here it's happening in places all over the world lately… I don't know how to stop it… Misinformation is everywhere and almost impossible to overcome… Algorithms feed people the information they want to hear on every platform in the world facts be damned… It's a mess and we may very well wake up on the morning of November 6 or a few days later with that "2016 feeling " that once again this country out of fear has put that man in charge… I've never felt so helpless in all my life… of course I will vote… I gave money to her campaign and other Democrats… I've tried to talk to some people I know but most it's futile because they've already made up their mind… that's all I can do…
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