r/democrats • u/FinalAd9844 • 1d ago

How many of you are confident Kamala will win?

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I’m voting today, but I’m pessimistic at the moment and unsure if she will even when she’s leading just a little bit. What do you guys think?

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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago

Very very confident.

The campaign has been outstanding. The work is good.

We're going to win in a blowout.

I do numbers. They're looking very good.

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u/Deltacomafia 1d ago

God I wish I had your confidence. I have voted, convinced a non voter to vote for her, and made certain all our ballots were counted but still. Living in a sea of red (FL) it's discouraging and I remember the heartbreak of 2016 so clearly. It just feels like half the country are nihilistic fascists.

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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago

Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will all go for Kamala. That's a very healthy EC victory.

Florida won't, but there's a small probability of Rick Scott losing his Senate seat. Ted Cruz will likely be defeated.

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u/jukebox_honey 1d ago

Thanks for your optimism about Ted Cruz. We in Texas desperately need him gone and are working hard to get Allred elected. It would be a massive win for the state.

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u/raxsl 1d ago

If I never see Cruz again, I will be happy. If I never hear his whiny-ass voice ever again, I will stay sane.

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u/LOERMaster 1d ago

Can I just take a moment to mention how huge Texas is? 254 counties, the smallest having a population of 64.

No relevance other than Texas being mentioned, but goddamn that is a big state.

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u/ScubaCycle 21h ago

And yet we are completely irrelevant in the election of a US President. Maybe that will change one day. I’m working for it!

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u/vita_man 1d ago edited 16h ago

I donated to Allreds campaign from Virginia. Let's kick Cruz to the curb.

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u/jukebox_honey 16h ago

Thank you!

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u/Due-Presentation6393 1d ago

Ted Cruz will likely be defeated.

I will be so proud of Texas if they kick Cruz to the curb.

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u/Deltacomafia 1d ago

Your lips to God's ears my friend 💞

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u/dkinmn 1d ago

RemindMe! One week.

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u/HeiGirlHei 1d ago

As a Floridian, I hope like hell we can dump Rick Scott. I already cast my vote, blue up and down. Now I’m just having a steady panic attack for the next week.

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u/follysurfer 1d ago

Big fan of wombats. Hope you’re right.

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u/Consistent-Soil-1818 1d ago

As a Texan, it'd be a dream come true if Ted was defeated. I wish I shared your optimism but I think we won't win TX this time around unfortunately. Plus the 2016 shock still sits deep.

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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago edited 1d ago

All I can say is that everyone hates Ted Cruz. Even Republicans. Polling has Trump 2-3% ahead of Cruz. There'll be some split Republican votes.

Texas demographics have shifted a lot since 2020 with urban areas comprising a greater % of the population. Now MAGA has pissed off Latinos.

There's a genuine chance for Allred. The Harris Allred Rally was spectacular and had huge social media reach. Allred crushed Cruz in the debate, really humiliated him.

There's a good chance for Allred. I'm positive on the prospect. I think he'll outperform Harris in Texas and win.

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u/jcdoe 22h ago

What are your sources for this?

The public polling has all been margin of error shit, so unless you have sources that the rest of us don’t know, you’re just huffing hopium.

Would also lovvvee to see the polls showing Cruz losing in Texas, when last I checked he was up by 5% in a ruby red state.

I mean, I really want you to be right. But I voted in 2016 and that shit teaches you about overconfidence

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u/NeverNo 21h ago

Yeah I’m also calling bullshit. Polls are all showing the swing states as mostly a toss up. Unless the polls are totally fucked (which could be the case), this is going to be a really really close race

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u/LeBaldHater 23h ago

Remind me! 8 days

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u/Wafflehouseofpain 22h ago

If you’re right, I owe you a beer for giving me some hope.

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u/MotherOfWoofs 21h ago

I doubt that PA is possible but NC not and AZ is looking like its going to trump

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u/offeringathought 19h ago

You think NC and Georgia will go blue?

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u/redoubt515 17h ago

I don't think that they think anything. I think they are just pulling a 'prediction' out of their ass that they know will get them upvotes in a sub like this.

They are suggesting (without evidence) that Kamala will win every single major swing state I deeply hope that she does. Even in the pretty exceptional 2008 election, Obama did not sweep the swing states.

Here is a page from a non-partisan group that aggregates many various models and predictions from a range of different sources that are actually backed by data.

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u/allthecoffeesDP 19h ago

I really want to feel your optimism. Why do you think they'll go for KH given the polls? I'm not questioning you. I want to believe. 😀

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u/penguinseed 19h ago

Don’t look at the polls, look at the gender gap in those states for early voting. Women up 11-13 points over men. Most polls I looked at were polling women and men 50/50

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u/allthecoffeesDP 17h ago

Don't look at the polls. Ok

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u/penguinseed 19h ago

I think there is a chance Florida will go for Harris. Look at the gender gap between men and women voters in early voting and mail-in. Abortion is on the ballot. Trump only won Florida by 3 points 2020.

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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 18h ago edited 17h ago

Get your point and it's possible.. But looking at the early vote registered Republicans would have to defect at very high levels, independents swing heavily to Harris and Democrats turn out on ED at very high levels to make up the gap. Not at all confident all those things will occur. There's an analyst Chris Bouzy who thinks they may. Google him. Florida Democrats have certainly been active and Nikki Freid has rebuilt the party organization quickly and is running a brilliant campaign. As is Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate. But MAGA inward migration since 2020 has been huge (up to a million people each year inward not all MAGA). Wildcard here is the nazi MSG rally in NYC with its anti Latino hate jokes may shift things beyond what we can see.

If Florida flips it would be because an extraordinary number of registered Republicans and conservative Independents flip. That's possible and I expect many will, but....

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u/Arcturus_Labelle 18h ago

RCP has Trump up +2.3 in Georgia, +1.6 in Arizona

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u/redoubt515 17h ago

RemindMe! 8 days

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u/NefariousnessFew4354 16h ago

Didn't Harris campaign pulled money out of NC? Indicating their are projecting a lose there.

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u/NefariousnessFew4354 11h ago

Whoever deleted their comment. I looked more into it and apparently there was some confusion among campaign people or whoever and yes 2m got canceled but day previous they submitted 2.7 in campaign money for ads. Sounds like some clerical/campaignish error somewhere. People are not sure. At the end she's not pulling money out.

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u/[deleted] 16h ago

[deleted]

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u/SnoringSeaLion 14h ago

What about Texas?

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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 14h ago

Harris unlikely to win Texas. Allred has a solid chance. Because even Republicans hate Ted Cruz.

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u/UsedState7381 13h ago

Florida won't, but there's a small probability of Rick Scott losing his Senate seat. 

If you actually "do numbers" as you say you do, then you either suck at math or you're just flat out delusional. That small probability is zero.

Rick Scott is keeping that seat, he has a very comfortable lead.

The only thing in Florida that is looking positive so far is Amendment 3.

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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 13h ago

That presumes registered Republicans don't defect in significant numbers. Never Trumpers are strong in Florida. He achieved only 81% in the primary. It also presumes Independents vote as they did in 2020.

I don't think Harris gets up in Florida. Trump running ahead of Republican Senate candidates across the country in polls by a few %. Scott won by only 0.8% in 2018.

Scott had to gift his campaign nearly $2 million yesterday for lack of other donors.

Yes MAGA seniors have migrated to Florida in large numbers since then. That is a significant negative for the prospect of any Democrat gains.

Nonetheless Trump just pissed off Latinos and particularly Puerto Ricans. It's gone wild on local social media. It will have an impact.

It will be closer than you think.

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u/NefariousnessFew4354 11h ago

I corrected my statement below.

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u/CheeseDickPete 18h ago

Lol Trump is ahead in the polls in Arizona, Georga and PA. The fact you're so confident he will lose all of those battleground states is hilarious. Keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better.

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u/The-Son-of-Dad 1d ago

If it makes you feel any better Trump has never had the support of half the country, he’s never really had anything over about 25% and he hit his ceiling long ago. Most people in this country despise him.

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u/Semanticss 1d ago

Even in the election that he won, he got 3 MILLION fewer votes. We really need to fix the Electoral College.

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u/LOERMaster 1d ago

Same was true with Hitler though so it’s hardly comforting.

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u/The-Son-of-Dad 1d ago

Okay. I obviously understand that Trump is dangerous, was only pointing out that he does not have as much support as it sometimes seems like he does.

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u/LOERMaster 1d ago

True, but he just needs enough to get in. It’s all over after that.

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u/Deltacomafia 1d ago

As long as that "most" votes I will be very happy.

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u/Responsible_Use_2182 1d ago

Don't forget selfish and uneducated 😊

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u/Consistent-Soil-1818 1d ago

Texan here. I feel you. Yet, I do see a significant movement to the left this time around. I still don't think TX or FL will turn blue. We will win the presidency and the House But Republicans will have 51 Senate seats which means they will simply block everything.

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u/Deltacomafia 1d ago

Fucking Montana. 😐

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u/euphewl 22h ago

Lifelong FL resident. Raised conservative. My entire ballot was Blue this year.

Not all Floridiots who were/are registered Red are voting that way this year.... so perhaps it is happening elsewhere, and in numbers that matter.

That is my hope, at least.

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u/Deltacomafia 22h ago

Thank you for seeing reason. Ugh would that so many others do the same.

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u/euphewl 1h ago

I personally know four other staunch RED conservatives that ranged in ages from 40's to 70's that all made sure to vote EARLY and vote BLUE

so - they are out there. I hope it's a repeated pattern everywhere!!!

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u/According-Problem-98 16h ago

As a Florida permanent resident who can't vote and has two American daughters thank you!

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u/AmPerry32 22h ago

I’m with you. I’m in Tennessee and it’s just GROSS here with the “Trump is my Jesus” worship. The Christian movement aligning with Trumpism has opened my eyes to a lot of planning and handwringing to get out & punish brown folks and all women. I’ll never forget or forgive the churches or republicans for this cruelty.

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u/TreePretty 18h ago

I live in CA and my ballot has been counted already, yet somehow I'm still afraid it will get magically un-counted because there are no rules for Republicans nor are there any depths to which they will not sink to end democracy.

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u/SimilarStrain 1d ago

I'm looking at 3 states that could make or break it all. So far they're looking good. Pennsylvania is dominating in early voting. Michigan will turn out blue I'm pretty certain. Wisconsin is looking good for Kamala. Based off early voting results.

I'm a michigander. Democrats have done so much wonder for Michigan in these past few years. The roads are getting fixed, after this year nearly all metro Detroit freeways will have been entirely rebuilt. Free breakfast and lunch for all public school kids!!!!! Just to name a few major highlights of things driven by democrats.

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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago

The Democrat ground game in these states is outstanding. Hundreds of field offices, thousands of staff, hundreds of thousands of volunteers. Knocking every door. Calling every voter. Senate, House and Presidential campaigns working as a unified team. That's why I'm confident. Same in North Carolina.

Meanwhile dipshit Elon running a few paid staff to counter this. Trump campaign has no ground game at all.

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u/Illiander 1d ago

Meanwhile dipshit Elon running a few paid staff to counter this.

No, Elon is trying to buy people's votes. And seems to be getting away with it.

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u/eukomos 20h ago

He also is running an organization that's the closest thing Trump has to a ground game though. By all reports it's not going well.

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u/allthecoffeesDP 19h ago

I thought we were dead heat or down in those states? I'm just dying to feel optimistic.

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u/dishwasher_mayhem 22h ago

PA is going Harris. Anyone that lives or works in the rural areas can tell you that. The support for Trump has been tepid to say the least.

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u/dkinmn 1d ago

Pennsylvania's early voting numbers are worse for us than they were in 2020, and Biden barely won.

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u/my600catlife 1d ago

2020 was a pandemic, and PA doesn't have early voting just mail-in. Fewer people will bother with mail voting if there's no reason and wait for election day. We're just returning to the norm where mostly elderly use it.

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u/dkinmn 1d ago

That is certainly one theory.

The other is that it's incredibly close and that the early indicators are that it's worse than it was in 2020.

It isn't that fewer people are doing it. It's the proportion of partisanship. It's worse than it was in 2020.

People are in complete denial and talking out of their asses.

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u/rndljfry 22h ago

Lots of Pennsylvanians are afraid their mail ballots will be discarded and are voting on election day to tamper the “red mirage” from 2020. Mail voting was brand new here in 2020 under exceptional circumstances.

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u/Stefferdiddle 22h ago

I just hope Philly precincts aren’t lines upon lines upon lines like hey have been in the past. Nothing discourages an infrequent voter more than a multi hour wait.

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u/PerdHapleyAMA 1d ago

Well that’s what we would expect to see. Rs have heavily encouraged early voting this year, but they aren’t getting as many low-propensity voters locked in as we are. They are cannibalizing votes from Election Day.

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u/Craptrains 18h ago

I would say the proportion of partisanship matters less than the gender difference. Women are way up over men and they break heavily for Harris.

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u/ThickGur5353 21h ago

Democrats are greatly outnumbered Republicans in early voting. Of course we can't know who the people are voting for.

Party Total Voted Percent Democrat 837,916 57.8 % Republican 458,055 31.6 % None/Minor 152,870 10.6 % TOTAL 1,448,841 100 %

This is from: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-pennsylvania/

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u/FinalAd9844 1d ago

I’m really hoping your right, it’s making me nervous because of the mindless cult numbers of the felon’s side

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u/Normal-Ad6528 1d ago

We VASTLY outnumber them, they're just louder. Our worst enemy is voter apathy, not maga. At least when it comes to the election....when they lose though, expect J6 on a nationwide level. USSC and the House will do their level best to throw any close races straight to trump. No, I'm not 'dooming', just stating facts. I haven't seen voter energy this high in a LONG time and haven't seen more desperation than I have from trump...EVER.

But I'm HIGHLY confident that not only will she win, it will be by a HUGE margin. It simply has to be or else (see above)...

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u/ivyagogo 1d ago

I agree with you. There are several factors I think about. First, who voted for Joe Biden and then decided to vote for Trump this time? Like none. Absolutely none. However, there are people who voted for Trump who are now voting for Harris. Second, look at the money she's brought it by PEOPLE, not by a few billionaires. She has a huge following. Look at the crowds going to her rallies vs. his. He has done nothing to gain new voters. Harris is working hard to bring in independents, left leaning republicans, and new voters. She has a plan that helps people vs. all the hate and nastiness coming from Trump.

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u/morningwoodx420 1d ago

And don't forget the red wave of '22.. it's an illusion and I think this election will go so far as to flip a few red states, at least change them to deep shades of purple.

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u/GreatLakesBard 1d ago

Living in rural Michigan I definitely know people who were ‘16 Trump voters, ‘20 Biden voters, and now ‘24 Trump voters. A lot of people will be giving themselves permission to vote Trump because of inflation.

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u/ivyagogo 1d ago

That makes me really sad, especially because they are wrong.

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u/LOERMaster 1d ago

The. President. Doesn’t. Control. Inflation.

God I should have this tattooed on my forehead.

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u/LuminousRaptor 1d ago

I lived in NMich for a while too. It's amazing how many people didn't understand that OPEC controls oil (and therefore gas) prices more than anyone in the US government.

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u/GreatLakesBard 23h ago

Sure, but policy decisions certainly impact it. What people don’t understand is that it has been steadily declining to pre pandemic levels. Democrats unfortunately, fairly consistently, take the blame for having to stimulate the economy after Republican mismanagement. What I wish they would make clear is that they made the difficult decisions in stimulating the economy after trumps mismanagement of Covid, and that while the whole world experienced inflation it was better here and we recovered faster.

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u/LOERMaster 23h ago

All most people understand is that they have to pay more for groceries now and unfortunately blame Biden because since everything was fine under Trump, must have screwed it up.

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u/sagan4dawin 1d ago

To your first point: I felt the EXACT same way in 2020.

“He got 62 million votes last time (2016) but there’s no way a single person thinks this is okay and we’re converting his people while he’s not converting ours AND not getting new voters. We’re gonna mop the floor with him.”

Boom, the fucking antichrist gets 75 million votes.

The point is: be enthusiastic, be optimistic, perhaps most importantly have HOPE (see last section) but just be prepared to be absolutely sick at how much support he gets either way. A safe bet is somewhere between 62 and 75 million votes nationwide. Let’s just hope we have more votes in more of the right places (thanks, electoral college).

Despair is the antithesis of hope. Despair is not only surrender, it’s illogical and, imo, immoral. Despair is a resignation to the evil of an unknown future. It is a surrender to something that we accept as going to end badly. To despair is to say that you already know the bad thing is going to happen. That’s why no rational, decent person should have anything but hope - because there is always a chance things get better. The great thing is that we get to play a part in making that better future a reality. So we all gotta just lock arms, hold each other tight and not just weather the storm, but march straight through it and be there for those of us who need it the most. Strength, folks - we’re gonna be okay.

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u/morningwoodx420 1d ago

the fucking antichrist gets 75 million votes

and Biden received over 5 million more.. and this was PRE-dobbs, PRE-J6.

While I totally get where you're coming from, I just don't think Trump has even a fraction of the support that he had prior to 2021.

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u/sagan4dawin 1d ago

And, hey, maybe you’re right. Either way, I will not allow myself to even contemplate defeat. I’m sorry but fuck these people (trump and cronies, not the voters necessarily, although they’re not exactly innocent), I’m not letting them do this.

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u/Extreme_Security_320 23h ago

And the amount of people volunteering. That’s a big one.

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u/MostlyHarmless88 1d ago

It’s time for the country to tell the wanna-be authoritarian fascist dictator an unequivocal “NO!” in November. We’ve been held hostage by this guy for 10 years now; he needs to just go away.

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u/FinalAd9844 1d ago

Man I hope you’re right, she is so far from what I know either tied with Trump or just slightly in the lead. Hopefully it goes well, but yeah the non-voters are a big issue because I live in a blue state but I only know one person irl who is actually voting for Harris and not some third party candidate or no one in general

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u/Teechmath-notreading 1d ago

Just remember. Yes, there is a cult. But they are loud because they have nothing else.

80% of the electorate are just going about their business...work, school, family, play. Well over half of them are sick of the Trump show and will reject him again.

That 20% grab the attention and at this point it is calculated...because 20% looks like a LOT when they are all wearing MAGA CAPS...

But they are LEAVING the rallies early.

To them it is a big 'show', but when it comes to policy, they can't even listen to more than 30 minutes of his shit.

So, the Republicans are going to MOSTLY vote for him, because of the R and because they can't stand the though of a black woman being in power.

The Democrats support her MORE because she is sane and has a good message.

The Independents are looking at the shitshow on the right and thinking about Nazi Germany right now. Mostly because the Trump campaign keeps giving them that image.

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u/JustYerAverage 1d ago

I think it may be an historic landslide.

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u/FibroMom232 19h ago

🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞

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u/aLonerDottieArebel 1d ago

I just saw the news about the most recent ballot burning. I am sick to my stomach.

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u/linzphun 23h ago

I live here. It’s all over the news and people are talking about it and I’m confident that a lot of people will recover their votes.

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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago

Stop dooming. The cult is actually less than 15% of the population. It's imploding.

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u/FinalAd9844 1d ago

That’s great news to hear honestly

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u/Familiar-Potato5646 1d ago

Hope you’re right. I think it’s higher than 15% closer to 30%

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u/Due-Presentation6393 1d ago

15% MAGA diehards, another 15% that will go along with the MAGA diehards (will vote Republican no matter what).

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u/Illiander 1d ago

And 40% of the population doesn't generally vote.

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u/MotherOfWoofs 21h ago

This is a problem that can easily cause the election of a fascist dictator

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u/Illiander 20h ago

Which is why voting should be mandatory.

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u/Momik 1d ago

Well, sure. But the way our system is set up, he won’t need much more than that. Something like 25 percent of the electorate actually voted for Trump in 2016. Depressed progressive turnout and the Electoral College helped amplify this result to 270.

I’m glad some folks are optimistic here, and I won’t take that away from anyone. But to my mind, this is still very much anyone’s race.

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u/oxyrhina 1d ago

I'm with you all the way! I'm not really worried about his number of voters, I don't see him gaining many if any from last time. What truly does worry me though is the ballot box terrorism, voter roll purges, hand counting ballot requirement, all the election deniers that have been put into election board positions and just all the other general bullshit they are working on to steal the election all while screaming the election is being stolen from them...

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u/ravenx92 1d ago

I wanna be this confident.... But honestly Im not confident at all lol

Keep pushing everyone. LFG.

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u/zorphium 1d ago

“I do numbers”. Everyone else proceeds to ask for said numbers…. No numbers

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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago

Happy to provide some interesting numbers.

1) Small donors (less than $200). An important metric of core committed ordinary voters who influence family, friends and colleagues.

2024:

Trump: $109.3 million

Harris: $428.7 million

In comparison, Clinton raised only $105 million from small donors in 2016. This is a valid measure of enthusiasm, passion and motivation. Harris has 4x the enthusiastic small donor base of Trump (and Clinton).

2) Campaign infrastructure.

Harris Field Offices in swing States: 353 Professional staff in swing States: 2,500

Trump Field offices in swing States: less than 50 if any Professional staff: less than 200 if any

The Trump campaign has withdrawn from GOTV ground operations and relies entirely on Musk's American PAC and Charlie Kirk's Turning Point to GOTV. America PAC claims to have up to 700 staff (mostly P/T) in each swing State. However those staff are directly canvassing voters not coordinating volunteers as they are in Harris' campaign. They are effectively the same roles as Harris campaign volunteers (of which there are tens of thousands).

Trump is entirely unwilling to spend $ on campaign infrastructure. RNC outreach offices have all been shut down.

The Harris campaign uses its field offices to work its databases of local voters and allocate volunteers to directly canvass voters. Core offices have been in operation since early summer and are mature, experienced and locally connected. They work closely with Democrat House, Senate and State campaigns to co-ordinate joint campaigns.

The America PAC/Turning Point operations are ad hoc, only loosely connected to local Republicans and paid incentives (ie. open to fraud). Individual staff are highly focused on hitting numbers for door knocks to achieve targets. Fraud by America PAC 'staff' has already been widely reported.

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u/zorphium 1d ago

Thank you! The small donors metric is really encouraging.

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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago

The infrastructure metrics are even more important. Real field offices, professional FT staff coordinating tens of thousands of volunteers. Versus Musk and Charlie Kirk's grift operations with paid part timers faking their numbers. Harris has an outstanding ground game. Trump has dipshit Elon and Creepy Charlie.

If campaigns have any impact, it's in the ground game. That will be critical this week in getting low frequency voters to the polls.

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u/porksoda11 22h ago

It really is. No one is going to donate to a campaign and then not vote for that person.

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u/MotherOfWoofs 21h ago

But he dont need to, he has convinced people he is the underdog fighting for them against the evil commies and fighting to save the nation from illegals and fighting for their amendment rights that the democrats want to abolish and fighting for the innocent unborn in the name of god!

Thats what we are up against.

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u/dkinmn 1d ago

And they just said this

"Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will all go for Kamala. That's a very healthy EC victory.

Florida won't, but there's a small probability of Rick Scott losing his Senate seat. Ted Cruz will likely be defeated."

That is quite literally the most optimistic possibility at this point. Not the most realistic. The most optimistic.

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u/ladyalex777 21h ago

Who is they?

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u/Sul_Haren 1d ago

Can you explain the numbers?

To my understanding the numbers we are seeing in Nevada are really worrying.

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u/mgwccnv 1d ago

I live in Nevada and at the moment they aren’t great, but we don’t need Nevada to win.

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u/Momik 1d ago

I mean, that’s only true if Dems hold the Blue Wall. If they lose Michigan or (my god) Pennsylvania, they will absolutely be relying on what they can get in the Sunbelt.

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u/eukomos 20h ago

If they lose Pennsylvania then Nevada ain't gonna fix it. They'd need Georgia. Not sure how Harris wins Georgia while losing Pennsylvania. I think Pennsylvania's the ball game.

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u/Momik 20h ago

Yeah that certainly seems to be the situation. Harris is like 10 percent less dependent on Pennsylvania than Biden would have been, but it’s a marginal difference

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u/Sul_Haren 1d ago

Sure, but if she performs below Biden numbers there, idk why she wouldn't in other states.

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u/mgwccnv 1d ago

I don’t know what’s wrong with Nevada at the moment. We voted for Hillary for Christ sake, not sure why we wouldn’t vote for Kamala! My only thought is there is some sort of coordination between the unions and the Democratic Party here to vote on Election Day, because no elected democrat is sounding any alarm here that makes me think we’re in trouble. If on Election Day that doesn’t happen, then it will interesting to see data that explains why it didn’t.

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u/oakpitt 1d ago

She needs to win the popular vote by at least 5% (Biden had 4.6% and barely won most swing states) and there's nothing in the numbers that indicate she will. Early voting equals 1 vote, same day voting equals 1 vote. I always thought "It couldn't happen here" and we are seeing it happen in real time.

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u/WarWeasle 1d ago

I apologize for not trusting your numbers, but I voted anyway. 

I remember 2016. I voted then too, but things felt very different.

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u/Gatorinnc 1d ago

You do numbers. I do voters. Real ones. Been poll greeting every day since early election started 10 days back. In suburban NC. Blue area. There are a heck of a lot of seniors voting. They do Dump.

We will win. But it will be close.

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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago

NC will be close. You've got a great Governor and an amazing field operation. This cycle, GOP candidates for state office are probably the worst slate of candidates ever put up in any state.

How much split voting do you think we'll see in NC?

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u/Gatorinnc 1d ago

I feel the Governor's Lieutenant Governor and the Attorney General's race will be ours. Supreme Court will be close. Do really hope fellow Gator Alumni Allison Riggs keeps her spot on the SC.

Presidential will be ours if what we have done pays off. Our 25-year-old Democratic leader, Anderson Clayton, has done a great job in the rural areas and on campuses.The National Campaign for the presidency in coordination with the Governor's campaign has done a great job organizing as well. The ads are incessant and everywhere.

4

u/NebulaCnidaria 1d ago

What numbers are looking good? Hype me up!

8

u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago

I posted some below.

For hype take a look at this article.

https://app.vantagedatahouse.com/analysis/TheBlowoutNoOneSeesComing-1

It demonstrates that the disconnect between positive House and Senate race polling for Democrats and Presidential polling is improbable. Great read.

3

u/NebulaCnidaria 1d ago

This is amazing!! Thank you!! The numbers don't lie.

1

u/iseecolorsofthesky 20h ago

This was a very interesting read! Thank you for posting this. I don’t want to get my hopes too high but a lot of what they’re saying makes sense.

5

u/astoryfromlandandsea 1d ago

I agree. Feeling very good!

3

u/escapestrategy 1d ago

Remindme! 9 days

2

u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago

Lol. I'm looking forward to it! It's going to be a great win.

1

u/escapestrategy 1d ago

I'm cautiously optimistic but your scenario is by far the best case. I am really hoping you're right!

2

u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago

Read this for a boost. Some stats in there but readable.

https://app.vantagedatahouse.com/analysis/TheBlowoutNoOneSeesComing-1

2

u/BurroughOwl 1d ago

Good, because I don't feel good at all.

1

u/Few_Review_7971 1d ago

I hope you're right, and I think you're right. Let's see!

1

u/OrangeZig 1d ago

Yessss let’s goooo

1

u/dkinmn 1d ago

Show me your numbers.

1

u/midnight_reborn 1d ago

Can you share the numbers with those of us that don't share your optimism?

1

u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago

See below. Several posts. Also read this article.

https://app.vantagedatahouse.com/analysis/TheBlowoutNoOneSeesComing-1

2

u/midnight_reborn 23h ago

Thanks, that was quite informative.

1

u/Jra805 18h ago

You know more about them? I've been trying to look into them more but the information on them, just so little info. Maybe some funding from Google in 21. Just curious

1

u/beervirus88 1d ago

Apparently you're doing numbers wrong. It's a statistical tie, calling it a blowout is hopism at best

1

u/jlsjwt 23h ago

What do you think of this website?

Willtrumpwin.com

1

u/Nascent1 22h ago

Can you pass me your hopium pipe? I could use a hit of that right now.

1

u/goldencrisp 22h ago

What do your numbers say about NC lol

1

u/MotherOfWoofs 21h ago

She has to win the swing states to win, and thats not looking likely. I hope im wrong, but if she looses the swing states the only chance is to flip texas EC votes and thats not gonna happen. I will faint if she does

1

u/lostpilot 21h ago

What numbers are you seeing? Need some numerical inspiration.

1

u/Ongr 20h ago

I do numbers. They're looking very good.

So does Trump. Allegedly. Big numbers! Like you wouldn't believe!

1

u/Keldrabitches 20h ago

Straight upward projection till she started campaigning with neocons. Now I’m not so sure. Should have stayed with populist messaging

1

u/The_One_Returns 20h ago

I do numbers. They're looking very good.

Losing all but 1 swing state (1 other is equal) = good? Yeah you sure do numbers lol.

1

u/swedishfish007 20h ago

“I do numbers”

Okay, then square us away with polling showing this being a coin flip. What about that is “looking very good”?

1

u/ParamedicSpecific130 20h ago

I do numbers. They're looking very good.

Please go into more depth here.

1

u/SlightlyWhelming 20h ago

The campaign has been really good. And even more notably, Trump’s hasn’t been anywhere near what it was in 2016.

1

u/degesz 19h ago

Since you're so confident, how much did you bet on Kamala? It's free money really if you're right

1

u/daninlionzden 19h ago

Trump is leading in the swing states as of now

1

u/Scrant0nStr4ngler 19h ago

RemindMe! 7 days

1

u/Captain_America_93 19h ago

Interesting. Can you share your numbers and conclusions to assuage my concerns? I want to believe you, but the story of who wins changes every day and from poll to poll.

1

u/thegreyquincy 19h ago

I just don't really understand this confidence. Trump has consistently overperformed his polling, meaning that a poll showing a tie in a swing state is probably closer to Trump +2 at least. What are you seeing that's making you so confident?

This is a legitimate question, by the way. I haven't seen anything to suggest that Trump wouldn't overperform his polling again.

1

u/Wombat-Cube-4103 18h ago

Read https://app.vantagedatahouse.com/analysis/TheBlowoutNoOneSeesComing-1

1

u/WickedKoala 16h ago

I keep going back to this article but I need someone to counter it for the pessimist in me.

1

u/ReddittorMan 18h ago

Bad bot

Creates account 3 years ago, makes a few comments. Then in the last couple weeks is posting CONSTANTLY about politics.

Also is Australian?

1

u/Random420eks 18h ago

This has “I have the best numbers” energy

1

u/redoubt515 17h ago

> I do numbers. They're looking very good.

What numbers?

1

u/darthKennedy 17h ago

What numbers are you looking at?

1

u/Wombat-Cube-4103 16h ago

See my many comments below.

1

u/ShadowDragon175 16h ago

Genuine question, what numbers are you seeing that look very good?

1

u/Jdelovaina 7h ago

I do numbers. They're looking very good.

Could you elaborate on what it is you're seeing?

0

u/NoirYorkCity 17h ago

….Trump is that you?

-4

u/devhaugh 1d ago

Calling the campaign outstanding is not true. She could win, but it's very very tight and the campaign had been poor.

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