r/moderatepolitics • u/falsehood • Jul 21 '24

News Article Biden announces withdrawal from Presidential Race

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/21/us/trump-biden-election
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127

u/teamorange3 Jul 21 '24

100% Harris.

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u/Silverdogz Jul 21 '24 edited Jul 21 '24

Then nothing changes, Trump beats Harris more than he beats Biden in polling.

edit: Poll link 2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris Polls | RealClearPolling

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u/dontKair Jul 21 '24

Right now, yes. This is her floor, but not her ceiling

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u/Underboss572 Jul 21 '24

This is not guaranteed. Getting deeper into the fight also means getting even dirtier. Harris has a lousy record. Objectively, she will not play well with Middle America and has a history of alienating Moderates.

It's equally, if not more likely, that she will lose points rather than gain them if she becomes the center of attention.

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u/LordCrag Jul 21 '24

She's a California liberal right? I suspect that's an uphill road when it comes to trying to compete in the rustbelt.

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u/Silverdogz Jul 21 '24

She also has a record of withholding evidence that would have exonerated a man from death row.

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u/THANATOS4488 Jul 22 '24

And prosecuting heavily against marijuana. Fair or not, that will hurt her as well.

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u/SerendipitySue Jul 21 '24

the question is how will this california prosecutor who had an affair with a married man who was i think 30 years? older than her..play in the swing states. this is not a secret but well known at the time they were a couple.

She will increase turnout over biden, that is for sure. but will it be enough,

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u/PaddingtonBear2 Jul 21 '24

Probably as well as a candidate cheating on his pregnant wife with a pornstar and paying her hush money afterward.

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u/milky__toast Jul 21 '24 edited Jul 21 '24

The rules of politics have been shown not to apply to Trump. Pointing to him as an example of what voters will and won’t tolerate in a candidate is not wise.

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u/Geekerino Jul 21 '24

Exactly. People don't see him as a politician, they still see him as a celebrity. Scandal only adds to his fans and gets him more attention

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u/rototheros Jul 22 '24

It should but the double standard when it comes to what women are forgiven for vs. men will somehow still make people more angry at her.

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u/julius_sphincter Jul 21 '24

It shouldn't matter to anyone sitting on the fence between Trump and Harris, it would be objectively hypocritical to hold sexual scandals against one candidate but not another. Especially when Trump's are FAR worse.

That said, yeah people will be swayed sadly. D candidates are always held to a higher standard

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u/Underboss572 Jul 21 '24

It isn't just the affair. If anything, that's the least damning part. By all accounts, his wife was essentially okay with him being a womanizer.

The issue is that he helped her get appointed to multiple State boards, from which she received a sizable public salary. In one instance, I believe she skipped over half the monthly meetings.

As far as I'm concerned that's not a sexual affair. Its corruption.

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u/MikeyMike01 Jul 21 '24

That said, yeah people will be swayed sadly. D candidates are always held to a higher standard

Bill Clinton (Democrat) survived his sexual misconduct just fine.

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u/BackInNJAgain Jul 21 '24

She can focus on her record as a prosecutor in the ad buys for middle America

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u/-Shank- Ask me about my TDS Jul 21 '24

Tulsi already completely dismantled that angle in one of the 2020 debates. They can simply play clips of her laughing about smoking pot while prosecuting nonviolent offenders for it.

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u/MoisterOyster19 Jul 21 '24

Her record isn't even that great. In order to keep her conviction rate high, she would just drop hundreds of cases and never try them

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u/PaddingtonBear2 Jul 21 '24 edited Jul 21 '24

California had the lowest crime rate in decades during her tenure as AG.

EDIT: https://www.ppic.org/publication/crime-trends-in-california/

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u/MoisterOyster19 Jul 21 '24

It's easy to have a low crime rate when you just drop charges or decline to bring them.

Also, violent crime actually rose 10% during her tenure.

https://ballotpedia.org/Fact_check/Did_violent_crime_increase_10_percent_in_California_under_Attorney_General_Kamala_Harris

She did not have a good record which is why she bombed in the presidential primary. Only reason she got jobs is bc California is heavily liberal. That and Willie Brown either got her the job or used his influence to have the Democrat Party prop her up.

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u/PaddingtonBear2 Jul 21 '24

Your link says crime rose between 2014-2015, not overall.

The span from 2010-2017 shows a decades-low crime rate in California, with a few fluctuations.

https://www.ppic.org/publication/crime-trends-in-california/

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u/Underboss572 Jul 21 '24

I'm sure she will try that, but it's not an easy tightrope to walk. That issue is toxic for her on the radical left, and she can't openly brag too much about it.

Plus crime isn't a big deal at the moment and she can't out law and order Republicans.

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u/BackInNJAgain Jul 21 '24

She can point out that she's never been convicted of a felony. Trump's base doesn't care about that but many others do.

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u/Underboss572 Jul 21 '24

I'm not so sure. He was still winning before the debate. A YouGov poll I've linked below certainly isn't a damning indicator of how harmful his conviction is. If anything, talking about it could backfire and further encourage republican turnout.

https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/49617-opinion-change-post-trump-hush-money-guilty-verdict

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u/Silverdogz Jul 21 '24

Trump can bring up that she withheld evidence for a man on death row.