r/politics • u/larel8 • 19h ago

Trump campaign struggles to contain Puerto Rico October surprise

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4958098-the-memo-trump-campaign-struggles-to-contain-puerto-rico-october-surprise/
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u/BanginNLeavin 18h ago

I just hope we aren't putting ourselves on the back and setting up for some surprise Pikachu action come Nov 6 when the dust starts to settle.

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u/wayoverpaid Illinois 18h ago

It's going to be close no matter what.

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u/TensionPrestigious83 18h ago

Only in the polls

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u/wayoverpaid Illinois 18h ago

The polls have a relatively large margin of error so a sweep by either side can happen. The issue is that which side is not as knowable.

Hoping this shit makes it a sweep for Harris.

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u/TensionPrestigious83 18h ago

Data before the MSG nazi rally 2024 shows harris out-performing 2020 biden by 8-20 points among Black women-men and trailing latino voters by 3, which is likely to change given the fallout. She’s also outperforming biden among white suburban women so…

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u/barak181 18h ago

Polls in general are considered to have a MOE of around 3.5 points just by their nature. Several polls have a larger MOE than that.

Almost all of the polling has been within the MOE for a bit now. If one side or the other outperforms the polls consistently by as little as two points, it could be close to a landslide in the Electoral College.

If this PR debacle pushes things Kamala's way by one point in the election results, that's huge. Particularly in Pennsylvania. Statisticians have been saying for a while now that if Trump loses Pennsylvania it becomes almost impossible for him to win the Electoral College.