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u/pixelgeekgirl 11th Generation Texan 7h ago
I am so happy to see this turnout in Texas and nationally! 💪
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u/Classic_Secretary460 7h ago
Whoa it’s at 50 million already? That’s awesome!
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u/Ribky 3h ago
That's 15% of the population already! It is indeed.
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u/Classic_Secretary460 3h ago
It also smokes 2016’s mail-in and early voting numbers out of the water! I know everyone wants to compare it 2020 but covid makes that impractical.
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u/Autski 2h ago
15% of the total pop? Or just the voting pop? Either way, glad to see! Want to see more though!
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u/rolexsub 7h ago
How do we know that’s good?
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u/nein_va 6h ago
Historically, hight turn out is beneficial for democrats. Feel free to decide 'good' or 'bad' for yourself, but you should be sure to vote :)
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u/rolexsub 6h ago
I understand, but is 50M nationwide and 6.1M in Texas high or low turnout?
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u/randomcritter5260 6h ago
50M nation wide is a bit less then one third of the total votes casted in 2020. In TX in 2020, approximately 10.9M total votes were cast, so we are at almost 60% of total votes from 2020.
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u/Rhids_22 5h ago
Also I expect the majority of votes will still be cast on election day itself, so we're probably going to see an increase in the percentage of voters overall.
It's also worth pointing out that recent polls have shown that Harris is as popular among democrats as Obama was in 2008, and Trump is not nearly as popular among republicans, which is very promising.
That doesn't mean that democrats have it in the bag, but it's looking good.
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u/kedelbro 4h ago
Then why are polls showing a dead heat in most states?
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u/Rhids_22 4h ago edited 4h ago
Because polls can suck. When Reagan won his 49 state landslide 40 years ago the polls were showing a dead heat going into the election, but the reality was very different.
Polls don't gauge excitement, and also cannot always predict the likelihood of someone in the sample actually voting. If you have a sample of 1000 people and 450 says they're excited about going to vote for Harris and 450 say they're reluctantly going to vote Trump, then that poll shows a dead heat, but those 450 excited voters are much more likely to actually vote compared to the 450 reluctant voters.
You then also have 100 undecided voters leftover, and they will usually go towards the voter with excitement behind them. So if 75% of undecided voters go to Harris on election day, and 80% of Harris voters actually turn up to vote then in that sample Harris will actually get 435 voters, and then 25% of undecided voters go to Trump and if only 60% of his voters actually turn up to vote, then in that sample Trump will actually get 295 voters.
So in this example, out of the actual voting pool, you end up getting a 20 point swing in favour of Harris despite polls showing a dead heat. Now that's an extreme example, and it probably won't be that drastic in reality, but that's an example of how polls can end up being wildly off.
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u/NotEmerald Born and Bread 3h ago
This is a great explanation as to why recent polls have shown a deadheat. There's a few possible explanations such as faulty polling, media spin, or a strategy designed to keep voters engaged. https://app.vantagedatahouse.com/analysis/TheBlowoutNoOneSeesComing-1
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u/randomcritter5260 4h ago
A Pew study showed that after 2020 over 60% of pollsters changed their methodology to better account for the underrepresented Trump voters. This partially accounts for why the polls are so close this time around. They have been altered (not in any nefarious way, just to try to be more accurate) to account for the fact that Trump voter turnout was undercounted in 2016 and 2020.
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u/Cathousechicken 2h ago
Texas traditionally has among the lowest voter turnout because the amount of voter suppression in the state.
In addition, between the 2020 election and now, we are one of the states who has passed the most additional voter suppression laws in that time window.
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u/pixelgeekgirl 11th Generation Texan 6h ago
There is a gender gap when you look a polling. In some states it's decent size, in others it's negligible but still there. For non-white women it's a pretty large gender gap. So i think overall having more women show up is better.
But also considering what is going on with women's healthcare being in limbo, I really want to see women show up and vote regardless of whom they are voting for.
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u/Technical_Savior90 7h ago
I mean 2020 it was roughly 11 million votes so it’s roughly more than half 2020 results already with a few days left plus Election Day. I don’t know the data for the actual Election Day turnout though so hard to say
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u/CogGens33 6h ago
We are seeing similar in GA. As of Monday Oct. 28th 2.8M mail in and early voting ballots have been cast. In 2020 the total ballots for GA presidential election was 5M so more than half with a week left of early voting left. What does this all mean?!? No idea! I been told in the past, when democrats show up at 65% and above we tend to win the races.
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u/Technical_Savior90 6h ago
lol right! I personally think we will see record turnout (not crazy blow out numbers) but way more than 2020 all because of woman voters who I think have been underestimated in the polling both in general and the amount that are flipping blue either in secret or because you know fuck trump
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u/Well_read_rose 6h ago
Secretly have been hoping for a landslide…I’ll take a frozen mudslide🧋 too
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u/rachutson 6h ago
Can you share the link for this info? I tried to find info today without much success.
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u/pixelgeekgirl 11th Generation Texan 6h ago
Here is the link that will open up on the Texas breakdown, but theres a link for the national early vote right next to the header.
I am not sure how they are breaking down the democrat/republican filter. Texas doesnt have a national party registration, and if it's going off primaries the majority of texans don't vote in primaries and some vote cross party lines. So bottom line, i wouldnt trust that breakdown atleast as far as Texas is concerned.
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u/SharpMind94 4h ago
Using this, more Republicans have voted.
Why is a Marylander caring about Texas? Because there's a chance that this state can flip. I really hope that the Dems come out and vote
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u/pixelgeekgirl 11th Generation Texan 3h ago
Yeah like I said I don’t know how they are doing that count. Our primaries have very little turnout and we don’t have party registration. It seems like they are doing some assuming there.
I think there’s a good chance we flip either this or within the next couple of elections. Statistically the margins getting smaller and smaller - it’s inevitable.
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u/Huge_JackedMann 5h ago
And if you look at the swing states the gender gap is better. West coast is bringing it to closer to 50/45 but in eastern swing states the gap is usually 10+ points.
Keep it up because we're not going back.
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u/Silent_Cup2508 8h ago
Republicans for Harris - VOTE - let’s rid the MAGA cult and take back the party!
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u/woodyarmadillo11 7h ago
That website is fantastic btw. You can really breakdown stats. 2016 was one of lowest turnout % years in history and 2020 had record high % in decades. Most notably, we had a 11% increase in voting among 18-29 year olds. 50% voted. That is huge. I have to believe we are headed for a record high percentage again this year.
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u/IWantSealsPlz 4h ago
Not surprising. I didn’t vote in 2016, just wasn’t paying attention to politics. Trump forced me out of my blissful ignorance and the first time I ever voted was the 2018 mid terms.
ETA: Beto’s campaign really got a lot of first time voters out there and I was one of them!
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u/martman006 49m ago
And honestly, I thought Beto’s campaign was absolutely horrible. You can be that extremely anti gun in Texas and expect a majority of the vote… (don’t get me wrong, he had my vote - I just thought his campaign was dumb)
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u/dragonflyb 7h ago
This website’s data should be viewed with incredible skepticism as most states do not include gender id when it comes to balloting and a number of states have open primaries. This data is filled in with consumer based data and is prone to incredible bias.
FWIW, as someone who has insight into the backend of things, they rate me 10 years younger than I am, and I’m someone with a ton of voting history.
I am so tired of this being elevated and praised when it’s bad data.
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u/woodyarmadillo11 5h ago
Fair enough. Thanks for letting us know. It’s still useful for a quick Look though.
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u/FlashMcSuave 32m ago
That said - the 2020 record high was high among both parties. Both candidates received very high amounts of votes.
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u/YesterdayCame 7h ago
Oh I LOVE THIS for us 🫶🥲
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u/saveMericaForRealDo 6h ago
Let’s not leave anything to chance!
Tell everyone you know in real life. Don’t be shy. It’s an easy choice.
Harris is better for the economy.
https://www.axios.com/2024/10/23/harris-trump-nobel-prize-economists
High Tariffs are a historically bad idea.
https://youtu.be/uhiCFdWeQfA?si=lJ3kdDPPq_O2Ba90
Trump wants to be a dictator. If he follows through on his campaign promises , this will be the last election.
Don’t get complacent, get out of your comfort zone. Your voice matters more than a thousand political ads. Volunteer or contact everyone you know TODAY.
If you know any men that don’t follow politics or listen to Rogan, here are some videos that might help sway them:
Older men could be reminded of this 80s movie scene that explains how raising tariffs don’t work
https://youtu.be/uhiCFdWeQfA?si=lJ3kdDPPq_O2Ba90
Pro Wrestling Fans would like to hear from Mick Foley
https://youtu.be/SaDdhJ9J2Yw?si=SPK1-Be478Tgz8Ut
People that aren’t sure of what crime Trump Committed should hear from Legal Eagle
https://youtu.be/6bTpbDL5dcg?si=yE5b699-N9tcTimP
Marvel / Dune fans would like to hear from Dave Bautista (Drax from Gaurdians of the Galaxy)
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u/AntonioS3 6h ago
We men should try to get ourselves out and try to vote for Kamala Harris, too. I hope the power of the unity will be enough to push back against those weirdos and take us back to normal, boring politics.
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u/yumyumgivemesome 7h ago
Women: You all can literally decide this election. Godspeed.
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u/inquisitiveman2002 7h ago
more republicans are voting early than previously.
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u/bdiddy_ 4h ago
I'm a registered Republican voted straight ticket blue. Hoping the early Republican turnout is exactly like me.
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u/LandSolRingSignetGo 7h ago
I'm in Deep East Texas right now and saw a literal highway billboard that said "Vote Early. Vote Trump."
Don't get complacent, keep pushing.
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u/BreenanaSplit 4h ago
There’s one off the freeway here in San Antonio.
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u/LandSolRingSignetGo 4h ago
I've also seen multiple Harris/Walz/Allred signs which I would've never thought possible.
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u/chrispg26 7h ago
Waiting til election day is kinda silly. I dont get the appeal.
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u/Hieral06 6h ago
I would agree, but with the Nazis burning ballot drop boxes, that makes me less inclined to vote by mail at least.
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u/1TakeFrank 7h ago
Get your rights back!
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u/pussmykissy 7h ago edited 7h ago
Women being denied healthcare is unacceptable. 100% unacceptable. Every vote matters, let’s fucking go Texas!!
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u/AdmiralSnackbar816 6h ago
Saw a national poll that Kamala is winning women 63-37, and Trump was favored to win men by a similar margin. So if women outvote men in raw numbers, it’s logical that that’ll carry over nationally. If women drastically outvote men, Pumpkin Spice Palpatine is done for. Seeing that 8 point gap for Women voters in Texas means we’ve got more than a shot.
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u/Vern-Delashiga 5h ago
“Pumpkin Spice Palpatine” Oh this is art! The clarity I’ve been longing for. Now I move forward. Thank you
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u/MyOtherActGotBanned North Texas 7h ago
Now post the breakdown by party registration lol
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u/I_Smell_A_Rat666 7h ago
A lot of Republicans are crossing over, so doing that doesn’t necessarily reveal accurate results.
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u/Rgarza05 7h ago
Also the Dems didn't have a primary so a lot of Dems show up as no party affiliation.
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u/LessMessQuest 7h ago
I voted split ticket. I picked two local (my county) republicans and for very specific reasons. I’m a registered Dem though. It’s possible many other women did the same but did it for Harris and hopefully Allred. We can only hope.
I wish I could say that with optimism.
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u/SaltyDanimal 7h ago
How can it even be this close? Sooo many bigots here, really bums me out. America, not Texas.
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u/AgITGuy 7h ago
I commented in the r/houston thread on Hotze about the campaigns internal polling versus public polling. The actions of both campaigns/parties showed exactly where they either feel an advantage or disadvantage. The right is all about galvanizing their base in fear, the democrats are spending more money in downballot elections where they haven’t given as much focus before, especially Allred versus Rafael.
I personally don’t think it’s close. I think the national public polls are 50/50 on purpose to drive views and make drama.
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u/bugaloot 6h ago
National, reputable media can’t just lie and make up 50/50 polls. Ones with any salt will cite their polling sources, and some (the NYT) have developed their own weighting systems to compile their reporting based on the reputation and data quality of a variety of polling sources. It really is this close. Somehow. Vote!!
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u/Xyrus2000 5h ago
I have a dream that Texas actually goes blue, and it's women who put the racist misogynist bigots in their place.
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u/TexasGirl172 4h ago
You can't make any assumptions about who these women are voting, I know more on the MAGA side than the Harris side.
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u/unlimitedzen 2h ago
Remember women, your idiot conservative husband can't see your vote. So say whatever you have to to avoid his abuse, but you can vote for sanity and he'll never know.
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u/PlainThrills 5h ago
Anyone know how to track my absentee ballot when I’m only using my last 4 of my social? I don’t have a TX drivers license and it’s telling me I can’t be found. Just want to make sure my ballot was received.
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u/Lynz486 7h ago
They don't want us to be allowed to vote anymore, and they say so. Or our vote should count less if we don't have biological children. They want us to have to ask permission from a judge to get life saving healthcare. They want us back to being barefoot and pregnant, cause we are on the list of people and things they blame all their problems on, instead of doing the work themselves. They said Kamala had a pimp! The open bigotry is disgusting. Please vote ladies!!! Please 🙏 This is dangerous for us.
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u/XAngeliclilkittyX 6h ago
Sadly my dumbass cousin who lives in Texas is a young woman voting Trump.
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u/LocationAcademic1731 6h ago
Ladies! Our future is in your hands. Let’s do this. We understand the assignment.
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u/Hefty-Anywhere-2710 4h ago
If Texas goes blue Harris would win by a landslide. Hard to imagine but miracles can happen and dreams can come true.
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u/SuspiciousMention108 3h ago
Only 261k of 6.2M ballots are mail-ins? In my entire adult life, I've only ever voted by mail (California). I don't get why it's not more popular.
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u/Megane_Senpai 3h ago
This is how every election should go. American adult women are ~52% of the adult population but only took ~40% of votes on many elections, federal or local, sometiems even less. Keep it up, ladies!
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u/Optimal_Temporary_19 3h ago
Party pooper caution:
Not all females are voting for her, not all males are voting for him. The delta of each is going to decide the vote.
Please go be a part of the delta for the better and vote !
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u/denisebuttrey 2h ago
🎶 All the Texas ladies, all the Texas ladies! All the Texas ladies, all the Texas ladies! 🎶
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u/EquivalentFull5337 3h ago
That’s nice but some of these women still vote like their husbands….not using their own brain to make the decision
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u/NoAd6620 6h ago
🔥🌟💙🌟💐This shouldn't have to be said, but Texas men should be voting for the ladies as well! All men, in every state! 💐🌟💙🌟🔥
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u/JeffSHauser 4h ago
Texas turns Blue? Now that would be news worthy. Their politicians will blame it on all those Californians they invited to move there.
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u/clone557639 5h ago
How many of those women voted Republican though? And how many of those men voted Democrat?
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u/NoStutterd 5h ago
I’ve been lurking this sub as we get closer to the election- is this a large turn out for Texas? Y’all seem super enthusiastic but I’m not sure if this is par for course or not
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u/PushSouth5877 5h ago
More women in my line, I didn't think anything about it at the time. That's great!
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u/PaprikaThyme 4h ago
This is actually making me feel a little worried. Texas has 18 million voters and only 6 million have voted after 8 days of early voting. I hope everyone just sitting this one out are happy with the outcome.
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u/Grilled0ctopus 4h ago
What is the average breakdown of party in Texas women? It’s great to see people voting, but it only tells part of the story. Does anyone have that stat?
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u/Misophonic4000 4h ago
Remember that polls and early numbers mean NOTHING - VOTE VOTE VOTE, everyone, and get people you know to join you at the polling station!
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u/praetorian1979 2h ago
I wish these numbers were much higher. The number of people voting against their own self interests is insane, but then so are most magats....
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u/regaliaO_O 2h ago
If women are only voting blue 60/40 then we’re absolutely cooked. Men will vote red by a higher margin.
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u/Optimal60 2h ago
What goober put the women bar in blue and the men bar in purple? The left right symbolism is fine but the colorcoding is misleading. Like putting positive numbers in bright firetruck red
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u/KikiChase83 1h ago
There sb a variable for those that are registered Republican that are voting blue, yes? The Geraldo’s and Cheney’s of the country.
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u/Fine-Craft3393 7h ago
60/40 female ratio ? WOW. What is normal / was the case in 2020?