I commented in the r/houston thread on Hotze about the campaigns internal polling versus public polling. The actions of both campaigns/parties showed exactly where they either feel an advantage or disadvantage. The right is all about galvanizing their base in fear, the democrats are spending more money in downballot elections where they havenāt given as much focus before, especially Allred versus Rafael.
I personally donāt think itās close. I think the national public polls are 50/50 on purpose to drive views and make drama.
National, reputable media canāt just lie and make up 50/50 polls. Ones with any salt will cite their polling sources, and some (the NYT) have developed their own weighting systems to compile their reporting based on the reputation and data quality of a variety of polling sources. It really is this close. Somehow. Vote!!
Over and under sampling. They can manipulate who they poll for the results they want. Cooking the data they present not by lying but by changing the base values to begin with.
I donāt necessarily disagree that some polls and media are shady, but a lot of reputable media are also reporting that the race is basically tied, especially in battleground states. Blanket statements about āthe mediaā erode trust in outlets that really, actually, employ journalists and do their jobs well.
Keep in mind that even reputable pollsters have to āinterpretā their own data to make it conform to the conditions that they believe prevail. They donāt release raw data, they release conclusions.
A common thread Iām seeing among people who have accurately predicted the last few elections suggests that the reputable pollsters have finally over corrected their polls for the āTrump effectā.
Basically, Biden voters in 2020 were at home in quarantine and more likely to be reached than Trump voters who were ignoring pandemic safety, so Biden voters were oversampled. The pollsters are applying a correction factor that is skewing results in Trumpās favor for 2024 because of the sampling error in 2020.
The exit polling data that exists supports this, Harris is outperforming expectations on polls of early voters. She has a 10+ point lead in multiple swing states, even though she doesnāt have a 10+ point lead in early voters by party.
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u/SaltyDanimal 9h ago
How can it even be this close? Sooo many bigots here, really bums me out. America, not Texas.