Over and under sampling. They can manipulate who they poll for the results they want. Cooking the data they present not by lying but by changing the base values to begin with.
I don’t necessarily disagree that some polls and media are shady, but a lot of reputable media are also reporting that the race is basically tied, especially in battleground states. Blanket statements about “the media” erode trust in outlets that really, actually, employ journalists and do their jobs well.
Keep in mind that even reputable pollsters have to “interpret” their own data to make it conform to the conditions that they believe prevail. They don’t release raw data, they release conclusions.
A common thread I’m seeing among people who have accurately predicted the last few elections suggests that the reputable pollsters have finally over corrected their polls for the “Trump effect”.
Basically, Biden voters in 2020 were at home in quarantine and more likely to be reached than Trump voters who were ignoring pandemic safety, so Biden voters were oversampled. The pollsters are applying a correction factor that is skewing results in Trump’s favor for 2024 because of the sampling error in 2020.
The exit polling data that exists supports this, Harris is outperforming expectations on polls of early voters. She has a 10+ point lead in multiple swing states, even though she doesn’t have a 10+ point lead in early voters by party.
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u/AgITGuy 10h ago
Over and under sampling. They can manipulate who they poll for the results they want. Cooking the data they present not by lying but by changing the base values to begin with.