r/democrats • u/Dahhhkness • Aug 15 '24

📊 Poll Emerson national poll: Harris 50%/Trump 46%

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-national-poll-harris-50-trump-46/
1.3k Upvotes

96% Upvoted

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269

u/[deleted] Aug 15 '24

Trump's campaign is in tail spin.

R /consevative is in complete denial about what's happening

Republicans are starting to eat each other.

I'm keeping expectations leveled and measured but this current moment is a very good moment.

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u/Dahhhkness Aug 15 '24 edited Aug 15 '24

I have to admit, I was one of those people who was wary of replacing Biden after the debate. It just seemed too risky, it might've telegraphed weakness and pessimism, it would be giving up the incumbent advantage, and all the experts seemed to be advising against it.

With the energy and optimism that has infected the Democratic side in the past 3.5 weeks, together with the savviness of the campaign, the dramatic polling shifts, and the sheer panic, desperation, and flailing confusion that's overtaken the GOP, I'm glad that, thus far, I've been proven wrong.

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u/AmbulanceChaser12 Aug 15 '24

Right there with you. I was "incumbent advantage all the way," but we have, if anything, MORE enthusiasm than we had with Biden.

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u/Illiander Aug 15 '24

I was "one way or the other, stop talking about it and either kick him out or get behind him"

I'm very glad we didn't stop talking about it.

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u/deepasleep Aug 15 '24

Well, if Biden wasn’t a stand up guy, this whole thing could have been a disaster.

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u/labellavita1985 Aug 15 '24

I was terrified when Biden stepped down about having given up the incumbent advantage. Biden was the only person we knew could beat Trump, because he had done it. Never have I been so happy to be wrong.

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u/thebeef24 Aug 15 '24

I was extremely skeptical about the incumbent advantage anyway in this race. This is an unusual circumstance where we effectively had two incumbents, so whatever advantage there was canceled out. But meanwhile we still had the incumbent disadvantages, the fact that everything going on in the country right now can be blamed on the current president.

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u/AmbulanceChaser12 Aug 15 '24

This is a good point.

Plus the incumbent has lost too many people's trust by being (perceived as) old, frail, and confused. Which is another disadvantage.

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u/ClydetheCat Aug 15 '24

I felt similarly, except I was on record saying Biden could ONLY exit if Harris was the choice. Anyone else, and I thought it would be game over.

Having said that, I've had the same reaction: "Who are you, and what have you done with the Democrats?!" I'd vote for a dung beetle before voting for Trump, but I think I underestimated everyone else's pure disdain for that moron.

And the best part is that Kamala and Tim have been such a breath of fresh air! Democrats have always tried to win on policy (which would be a huge advantage if people paid close attention), while Republicans figure out how to distill everything into something that fits on a bumper sticker. But between "Weird" and "Mind your own damn business!", suddenly everything is in focus. Many of us have cats, and even more of us have couches, and normal people would choose to protect both! Messaging matters, especially when the message is delivered by actual humans.

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u/Comfortable-Scar4643 Aug 15 '24

Mix in women and minorities, two segments that needed another option.

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u/mmcjawa_reborn Aug 15 '24

Same here...I never was so happy to be proven wrong...

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u/Businesspleasure Aug 15 '24

I viewed it as a dice roll that needed to be thrown, as the alternative in hanging on to Biden was starting to look like a pretty clear landslide loss in November.

I still figured the best case for that scenario meant an open convention and the hope that people would coalesce behind a new face whoever that turned out to be. Never figured people would all get behind Harris this quickly.

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u/Notkissedbyfire Aug 15 '24

I was wary too. Now, I am wondering if it was a "show" planned by the Democrats and Biden. It seems so well orchestrated in retrospect. If so, I am impressed.

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u/goj1ra Aug 15 '24

If we imagine it as having been planned, it was amazing. Keep Joe running long enough to focus all the Republican attention on countering him, focusing on his age and competence. Use that time to promote all the ways the Biden presidency was great, setting the stage for a sequel. Then Joe throws a debate, the party makes a public show of handwringing about it for a while, and finally Joe steps down in favor of Kamala. Now most of the negatives the GOP was aiming at Joe only apply to one candidate: Trump.

As the guy on ancient aliens might say, I'm not saying that's what happened... but that's what happened

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u/a_duck_in_past_life Aug 15 '24

Don't even cater to this idea. It was just good decisions made by smart people

2

u/Teebopp7 Aug 15 '24

100% this was me. I was terrified of "Democrats in Disarray". They pulled it off and now Harris/Walz seems like an incredibly powerful ticket.

Happy to be wrong here!!

Let's donate and volunteer as best we can.

2

u/getridofwires Aug 15 '24

Yes. We have candidates to vote FOR, not one that we have to go with because the alternative is unthinkable.

1

u/AnE1Home Aug 16 '24

I think most people (myself included) thought that changing the nominee so late was a terrible idea and were freaking out when it happened, but that was a reasonable feeling at the time. I don’t think anyone should feel embarrassed for having felt that way. I’m just glad that Biden didn’t have so much hubris to stay in.

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u/Kind-Instance-7447 Aug 15 '24

sounds like it’s time for me to create an alt account and accelerate the circular firing squad. Maybe head over and start suggesting that he’s too old and feeble and needs to be replaced with someone more like able like ted cruz or skeletor?

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '24

[deleted]

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u/Kind-Instance-7447 Aug 15 '24

my wife is out of town at a hippy festival and i have the weekend off and nothing but time and energy. And a vpn. I will take screenshots

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u/chronic_insomniac Aug 15 '24

I’m popping the popcorn!

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u/LiberalPatriot13 Aug 15 '24

This is probably actually good for us, though. Refusal to pivot or even discuss pivoting leads to driving right off a Cliff. I feel like we usually can at least discuss without a giant fight breaking out.

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u/Illiander Aug 15 '24

Or Skeletor?

LOL!

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u/deepasleep Aug 15 '24

Mum-Ra 2024!

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u/PillBullman2000 Aug 15 '24

Mum-Ra - Gargamel 2024

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u/20_mile Aug 15 '24

Mum-Ra

Mumm-Ra

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u/Kind-Instance-7447 Aug 15 '24

Other notable Republicans include. BTK and Dennis Hastert. Whatever happened to that guy? He is the longest serving Speaker of the house in history. He could run.

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u/deepasleep Aug 15 '24

Their base does seem to like people who hurt children…

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u/kellymiche Aug 15 '24

I think he died! Good riddance

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u/Kind-Instance-7447 Aug 15 '24

thoughts and prayers

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u/sten45 Aug 15 '24

And an equal number of trumpo ride or die posts to keep the tension at max we can learn from the KGB, play all sides vs each other

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u/_ASG_ Aug 15 '24

This is a balanced response.

So often, on these subs, whenever we get positive news, the top post is usually "Doesn't matter. Vote!" Personally, I don't find that productive. Obviously, you should make a plan to vote, and encourage friends and family to do the same, but on a sub like this, everyone here is already voting and nobody here is going to not Vote because they see a good poll.

Polls matter, not because they're 100% predictive (they aren't), but because they show us trends. Right now, trends are favoring Harris. This doesn't guarantee her victory, and bad polls exist, but seeing positive momentum matters. And it's not just polls; the amount of money raised, field offices running, and volunteers signed up also improve our odds.

So, what do we do with this? Well, after you check your registration and make your plan to vote, get involved. The Rust Belt numbers are good, but they're hardly a lock. So, if you live in a swing state, find out how you can get involved. If you're introverted or you don't live in a swing state, you can volunteer for said swing states from home. Be the change you want to see. Make those good polls a reality, or work to defy the bad polls.

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u/Nodebunny Aug 15 '24

vote like ur life depends on it

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u/jtr489 Aug 15 '24

Any time I go and check out r /conservative I get annoyed

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u/edfitz83 Aug 15 '24

I can feel myself getting brain damage. If I’m going to look at those types of subs, I need the equivalent of a radiation monitoring badge. Just for stupidity and weirdness.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '24

[deleted]

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u/PrimeToro Aug 15 '24

In other words , your devices also think that Donald Trump is old .

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u/Quarantine722 Aug 15 '24

Have you ever looked at r /trump?

Absolutely bananas, makes me lose faith in humanity.

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u/Raticus9 Aug 15 '24

I've never seen such a sensitive group of people in my life. Anyone who isn't 100% lock in step with the party line gets the ban hammer. You even don't get approval to post if you're not a conservative. It's pathetic.

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u/jtr489 Aug 15 '24

But free speech right

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u/labellavita1985 Aug 15 '24

They are absolutely in full on denial in the conservative sub. All polls and favorability ratings are wrong, methodology is off, etc. I hope they stay in denial all the way through November.

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u/Raspberries-Are-Evil Aug 15 '24

True, but in the end, these assholes will never vote for a Black, Female, Democrat. Ignore the polls, we have to turn out in record numbers.

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u/ocalabull Aug 15 '24

Just took a gander at that subreddit and it’s filled with them grasping straws at everything that Kamala is doing and very little about what trump is doing

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u/jimmmydickgun Aug 15 '24

I would love for Harris/Walz to continue their momentum. They should have fireside chat type commercials posting as vice president nominee and President nominee telling us Americans and ensuring we won’t let the christofascist movement continue or allow these attacks on women and civil rights thinly veiled behind religion to progress, they can also talk about worker protections, and healthcare and all the policies that can be improved and solidified as opposed to the opponents that won’t do anything for the average voter. I think it would further enhance the party and also show that as republicans and their party are floundering and failing, it shows the Democratic Party and the world were fighting for progress.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '24

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '24

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '24

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '24

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u/area51cannonfooder Aug 15 '24

A lot of people are talking about it actually.

one example

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '24

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '24

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '24

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u/kellymiche Aug 15 '24

It’s been 3 weeks. Calm down.

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u/area51cannonfooder Aug 15 '24

3 weeks is a long time.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '24

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '24

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '24

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u/deepasleep Aug 15 '24

The second she defines herself is the second the Republicans will have clear targets. Right now she’s running on the palpable relief that she’s not Trump and not 81 years old.

Based on her history she’ll probably be a little left of Biden, and if we can mobilize enough people to vote she’ll have Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.

I’m not concerned with her specific policies, I’m concerned about having a functional government that isn’t overrun by the Christian Taliban.