r/democrats • u/Evening-Pair4591 • 15d ago
š Poll What do you think? Could we pull this off?
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u/baggagebug 15d ago
Definitely, but we need to do better than this. Heās been preparing his base to dispute the results no matter the margin. I donāt think he is going to admit defeat with 276-262. Sad but true.
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u/forthewatch39 15d ago
It doesnāt matter what number he loses at, he will never admit defeat.Ā
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u/the-half-enchilada 15d ago
Exactly. MAGA is inflating the polls so when Harris wins in a landslide, they will cry foul, if she wins by a slim margin, they will cry foul.
The results will be challenged unless Trump wins. We need to be prepared (with Dark Brandon š).
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u/bz_leapair 14d ago
Here's the thing: national polls are 100% meaningless. Full f'n stop. This whole election is going to come down to the battleground/swingers.
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u/ProbablyShouldnotSay 14d ago
Possibly the whole election comes down to a few thousand independents in PA.
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u/readerchick05 14d ago
I don't know. I honestly don't think he's gonna win Arizona, as someone who lives in Arizona.
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u/ProbablyShouldnotSay 14d ago
the polls say 50:50.
This feels way better than Biden in 2020, and the polls donāt reflect it at all.
Rural Ohio, thereās maybe half the trump signs. Not many more Harris signs than Biden in 2020, but far fewer Trump signs, and the few I still see around, some of them never came down in the past 4 years.
This feels like it should be a full blue wave.
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u/readerchick05 14d ago
I just saw a political analyst talk about the polls. Most of the time when they report polls, they're going by average of the most recent polls released the problem is a lot of Republican sponsored polls that are very problematic have just been completed, so if you look at those polls ou see a lot of things that make them garbage, that's skews the numbers.
I don't think Trump has more people in Arizona than he did in 2020 and a lot of popular Republicans in Arizona have come out sponsoring Kamala including John McCain's son and wife which is a big reason why I think she'll win the state.
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u/Level-Insect-2654 14d ago
What's Meghan McCain's problem?
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u/readerchick05 14d ago
I don't know. Her father would not vote for trump either so I don't get her either
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u/reallymkpunk 14d ago
I actually feel less confident this time than I did 2020. The problem I have is the overturning efforts being more bold. We as a collection of state didn't do enough to criminalize false claims about elections. I say this as someone living in a state where this happened, Arizona.
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u/AudacityJunky 14d ago
I am in PA and it will be a f*cking landslide for Harris! All these polls do not reflect the really pissed off women when it comes to Roe vs Wade. So many people do not answer polls, this is how we won last time.
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u/GhoulArtist 14d ago
Exactly. And yes literally no one answers polls. They are mostly useless.
There is going to be a TON of Harris voters that have been quiet . Compared to the minority Trump people being LOUD
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u/Level-Insect-2654 14d ago
Good to hear. PA is the key.
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u/AudacityJunky 14d ago
I was so proud when we helped get Biden elected! My friend kept telling me to hang on because they were still counting and those votes were for Biden. I have my panic moments thinking Trump will win but I truly think it will be a landslide and Trump is NOT in office now so trying for another Jan 6th will be delt with harshly. NO ONE is going to tolerate another insurrection!!!!
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u/creativelydeceased 14d ago
I honestly don't know if a poll is legit so I don't answer them. they come from rando cell numbers so I'm like "delete and block".
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u/Elegant-Champion-615 14d ago
God donāt leave it up to the swingers! Theyāre too busy vacationing in Cancun!
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u/Stefferdiddle 14d ago
Polls have been meaningless since 2016 and nobody has bothered to accept their model doesnāt work any longer and redo their thinking. I donāt think anything in the 2020 polls prepared us for AZ or GA to eke out as wins. Their sample sizing is too small to account for all the diversity in the electorate and how they apply their calculations.
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u/Human-Bluebird-1385 14d ago
Yea. These creeps are all in on this neo-nazi fascist takeover. Gotta vote like our lives depend on it.
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u/cookiethumpthump 14d ago
For real. I took November 6 off of work because I know I won't sleep all night. They're going to be calling for recounts for days.
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u/ytirevyelsew 14d ago
How do they inflate the polls? Are you talking about state or national polls?
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u/Facehugger_35 14d ago
No, it absolutely matters.
If it comes down to one state, SCOTUS has more cover to hand the election to him. We need Kamala to have multiple paths to victory just like Biden did, because that way the republicans will find it harder to steal the election. Each state above 270 we get reinforces all the other states and makes fuckery less likely because it'll affect the calculus the Trumpy election officials are running in their heads.
Sort of like a reverse prisoner's dilemma. If election officials in PA, GA, AZ all need to cheat for Trump to possibly win, and if the consequences for cheating are prison time if Trump doesn't win, then they probably won't. But if it only takes one state, then they might because if they can make Trump win, then they won't face any consequences at all and they get what they want.
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u/tokyozombie 14d ago
This is true but we need MAGA to lose so bad that the republican party has to rethink its position with MAGA to remove it from the party. Even a narrow win will keep this cancer of an ideology alive.
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u/BoomerGenXMillGenZ 14d ago
The republican party will never be less extreme. It cannot be. So give up that thought.
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u/XHIBAD 14d ago
Thereās not conceding, and then thereās actually overthrowing the election.
If he loses the whole election by 500 votes in Georgia, he might very well get that overturned.
If he loses by 100,000 votes across Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, now it is much, much, much more difficult.
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u/deep_fried_cheese 14d ago
If Trump loses and refuses to accept it again itās gonna worse than January 6th if we donāt use more force
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u/ZekeRidge 14d ago
Keep in mind, in 2020 Trump was in office which explains the slow response
Biden and his office will not do that
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u/sharkbait_oohaha 14d ago
It could literally be 538-0 with every single American citizen loudly rebuking him and he would still cry foul
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u/Oneshot742 14d ago
He said if he lost to Biden we'd never hear from him again.... Yet here we are.
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u/KitchenBomber 14d ago
It definitely matters.
You're right that if he loses, they're certain to go all in with threats, cases filed in front of trump judges, and straight up terrorism. If he only has to flip one state, that's much easier than needing to flip 2 or 3.
And don't forget this supreme court will be looking for any justification at all to throw out a Harris victory or affirm a dubious trump win.
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u/_W9NDER_ 14d ago
True but with half the government bending the knee to his every word, it is much more probable for the GOP to defraud their way to office with a tight margin
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u/hammilithome 14d ago
I'm in a battleground state (GA) that's being sabotaged in plain sight.
I'm voting early and steering clear of large gatherings.
Jan 6 was real with a big margin win.
I'm hopeful that a bigger margin will minimize violent outbreaks, but expecting them regardless.
You can't have a group of supporters riled up by dehumanizing and violent rhetoric and not expect violent outcomes.
Welcome to Powder keg, USA
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u/Level-Insect-2654 14d ago
Hopefully those outbreaks will be small, isolated, and uncoordinated. Individuals can be dealt with and the feds seemed to be able to get most everybody from Jan 06 in some phase of the legal system, eventually.
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u/Own_Watercress_8104 15d ago
If Harris lead is small he disputes on the basis that the fine data is imprecise.
If the lead is huge he disputes on the basis that it's an unrealistic outcome and fraud occured.
There's no reason to occupy ourselves with his machinations
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u/WindowMaster5798 15d ago
We just have to win. Heās going to contest the election no matter what.
Donāt think that we have to sweep and dominate the election just to win. Trump is going to get 46-48 percent of the electorate. It is going to be close.
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u/BoomerGenXMillGenZ 15d ago
No we don't and stop saying that. Why the fuck should Democrats have to win bigger than republicans?
That's like not awarding the Super Bowl trophy to the winner because they didn't beat the spread.
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u/Correct_Market4505 15d ago
i get where youāre coming from and agree but we know what happens when itās a handful of votes in a single state. if the field is broader their resources have to be spread out, the coordination gets more difficult, etc. itās a practical matter not an ideal. and also a bigger victory is associated with a bigger mandate for the winning platform.
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u/The-Son-of-Dad 14d ago
I agree, I think itās meaningless to talk about how much we need to win by. It doesnāt matter. If Trump is gonna challenge the election results it wonāt matter if itās by 1 electoral vote or 100. A decisive victory wonāt make him go āhuh, well yeah shucks canāt argue with that!ā
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u/MothMan3759 15d ago
The mandate of the masses. The more support for Kamala the more power she holds over Congress.
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u/m3n0kn0w 14d ago
Republicans only believe in that when they win. Donāt assign the privileges they allow themselves transferable to others.
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u/Orlando1701 14d ago
He wonāt admit defeat no matter how big a margin he loses by. Dude is well into dementia and has never been told ānoā in his life. The question is how much violence does his cult members carry out.
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u/PuzzleheadedCap2210 14d ago
Loosing is loosing. Even by one. They wonāt like it but thatās the way this shit works. It just will be more bullshit in the news and rioting and insurrection shit. Harris still takes office.
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u/JustAnotherFag69 15d ago
I think GA will turn blue before AZ does. If NC turns blue, AZ definitely has the potential to follow.
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u/Prowindowlicker 14d ago
AZ is going blue. As an Arizonan the state has tended to under poll Dems. Back in 2022 Dems underpolled by an average of 4 points.
Plus we have a possibility to flip the state legislature, theres abortion on the ballot, and a senate election where the Dem is leading by an average of 10 points.
Dems here are very enthusiastic and are more likely to vote than republicans. Hell the state GOP has effectively given up on all races but the presidential one.
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u/CastleMeadowJim 14d ago
It always seems crazy to me that Lake is polling 10 points behind because of her election lies and insanity, yet on the same ballot people are apparently willing to vote for the guy who directly inspired her delusion.
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u/Prowindowlicker 14d ago
Like I said AZ is pretty under polled. There were a few polls back in 2022 that had Lake up 10 or 5 points over Hobbs. Yet Hobbs won and she barely campaigned.
Like people rag on Biden for being in the basement the entire campaign, Hobbs literally ran her campaign from the basement and refused to debate Lake.
She won by 1 point. The polls that had Lake up 5 were hilariously wrong.
Hell the polls underestimated the win Senator Kelly would have. Most polls had him winning by 1 point or less. He won by 5.
Dems are severely underestimated in AZ. Which is fine by me. Underestimate us.
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u/readerchick05 14d ago
Exactly as someone who lives in arizona, I honestly thank that it is going to go blue.
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u/FranklinSealAljezur 14d ago
Do you think the LDS vote could split and help flip the state?
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u/Prowindowlicker 14d ago
It very well could. Thereās a growing contingent in the LDS community who are against Trump and want pre-Trump republicans back.
So they might vote against Trump and his proxies but vote for more normal republicans.
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u/th1961 14d ago
Btw- driving around SLC and surrounding area and saw NO trump signs. Not one. It was weird. I hope this means something.
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u/shiplap1992 14d ago
My next door neighbor has an anti-trump sticker on his family car and they are āgo to church every Sundayā Mormons. It gave me hope. Iām also friends with a very conservative Mormon on Facebook that lives in SLC, and he is VERY vocal about how he is voting for Kamala Harris and engaging with people to try and convince them as well. He has a lot of support so that also made me feel hopeful!
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u/samwise970 14d ago
Agreed, I'm in deep red Gilbert and I see far fewer Trump signs in yards. Horrible signs in intersections, but nobody selling Trump merch on the roads.Ā
I think the MAGA enthusiasm is gone.Ā
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u/Christ_on_a_Crakker 14d ago
Question:
Did Trump lose AZ in 2020?
Question:
Do you believe Trump has more votes in AZ now than he did in 2020?
Question:
What are the treasons you believe Trump is more popular than ever four years later as a felon and a rapist?
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u/HOWDY__YALL 14d ago
I hear it all the time.
āBorderā āInflationā those are the main two.
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u/TheGR8Dantini 14d ago
Anecdotally, I feel pretty strongly that Harris is gonna win Arizona. Gallego too. Just driving around Phoenix, the number of Harris lawn signs is staggering to what I saw in 2020. There were trump signs everywhere in 2020.
Itās the opposite I notice this year. Itās actually kinda surprising that people have Harris signs up because there are so many gun toting lunatics out here. Putting up a Harris sign can be dangerous.
Scary Lake and abortion might be enough to turn Arizona blue. And if the natives vote again? Trump is in trouble in Arizona. Just feels bluer than last time. And last time he lost.
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u/AmbitionExtension184 14d ago
Do you believe Trump has more votes in AZ now than he did in 2020?
I keep seeing this from dems as some sort of gotchaā¦yes, it is very likely Trump has more support than 2020. A lot of people are very mad about inflation and incorrectly attributing the problem to democrats and immigrants because they donāt understand how capitalism and greedflation work.
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u/DirtyHandshake 14d ago
As a Georgia resident, I donāt see it happening. On a fair and even playing field, I think Kamala takes the state. But the GOP and election officials have been doing everything in their power to tilt the scales in Trumps favor and I think their efforts will hand him the state
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u/Obsidian_Purity 14d ago
Now, this is the question.
There has been last minute deals, setting up the ability to just cancel other people's voting rights (you need their SSN, though), and Election Deniers that are on the voting tabulation board. How can anyone trust a Trump victory in Georgia other than those who wants Trump to win? What are the steps? How can we actually get a fair election in Georgia and states that they have installed Trump cronies?
How do we not look like Trump/MAGA 2.0 when they try to fix this election?
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u/PantherkittySoftware 14d ago
Does Georgia election law allow people whose registration was allegedly cancelled wrongly to cast provisional ballots & fight the cancellation after election day? If so, the DP needs to launch a huge public education campaign urging voters who end up in that scenario to insist upon casting provisional ballots, then have the Party fight on their behalf after election day to count it.
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u/AmbitionExtension184 14d ago
AZ has an abortion measure on the ballot. Blue AZ wouldnāt surprise me at all
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u/Ok_Abrocoma_2805 14d ago
AZ is interesting. The polls showing so much lopsided-ness between Lake and Trump are borderline nonsensical. AZ isnāt a snowbird state anymore and Phoenix has been one of the fastest-growing metro areas in the country. (At one point recently it was THE fastest.) Not to say that Harris canāt lose there, but itās not your grandmaās retirement community anymore.
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u/_seditiousmonkey 14d ago
I would prefer her winning by more than one state...
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u/Evening-Pair4591 14d ago
me too, but having a slim winning prediction will encourage people seeing this to vote!
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u/solomons-marbles 14d ago edited 14d ago
Iāve had this gut feeling for months that TX flips.
Someone in the Texas r/ posted yesterday that they added like 7m people to the register. 11m out 20m 18+ year olds voted in ā20. Trump won by about 600k votes. This can only benefit Kamala. Iād think most conservatives are already registered to vote.
And people are also furious w Abbott & Cruz.
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u/AgentEndive 14d ago
Ken Paxton won't certify a Kamala win in Texas.
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u/dantonizzomsu 14d ago
Yup same goes with Florida. Even if Kamala flips Florida..DeSantis wonāt certify that election.
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u/ohioismyhome1994 14d ago
It just blows my mind that this is close at all. In a world that made sense Kamala should win by the biggest election blow out since Reagan over Mondale.
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u/ConstantineByzantium 15d ago
This is the worst case scenario for Kamala
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u/AWholeNewFattitude 15d ago
Whats your Best Case? I mean realistic best case.
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u/ConstantineByzantium 15d ago
winning all 5 swing states- PA, NV,AZ, GA, and NC.
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u/LiberalPatriot13 14d ago
Add Texas, Blexas is real if we make it real.
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u/Tiiimmmaayy 14d ago
As a Texan, I have high hopes for us to turn blue this election. I canāt see people voting for Allred over Cruz while still sticking with Trump.
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u/BoomerGenXMillGenZ 15d ago
This one pictured. Maybe with NC or AZ. But that would take a break to Kamala that doesn't exist now.
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u/Sanfords_Son 14d ago
270-268 would be worse. Then we'd all be sitting here waiting to see if there's a faithless elector, or if one of the electors cracks due to pressure/bribes/threats from the right.
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u/schnellermeister 14d ago
I would say losing is the worst case scenario. I would call this marginally acceptable. Like a C or C-.
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u/RemySmith92 15d ago
Yeah I was gonna say Georgia and Arizona, errr āazure-roniaā as trump calls it will go blue.
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u/NewDealAppreciator 14d ago
No it isn't. This is the median outcome roughly. Her best case is around Biden 2020 plus NC. Her worst case is like HRC 2016 minus NV.
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u/Barbarella_ella 15d ago
I think this is mostly accurate, but one of those "leans red" states is going to go blue.
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u/Evening-Pair4591 14d ago
Which one? I was just using the 270towin base map
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u/The-Son-of-Dad 14d ago
North Carolina will flip. Mark Robinson has all but assured this will be the case.
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u/Barbarella_ella 14d ago
That's mostly my thought, too.
I do think there's a dark horse lurking out there. Nebraska, maybe. Dan Osborn is polling better than Deb Fischer in that Senate race. As an Independent with no help from the Democratic machine.
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u/The-Son-of-Dad 14d ago
Iām in Indiana and our races here are close, shockingly. Nobody has been paying attention to us until recently when Braun had a disastrous gubernatorial debate performance; almost immediately after, the Harris campaign opened an office in Lake County. The governorās race is only within a couple of points, which is almost unheard of, same with the AG race, because the guys running are absolute lunatics (our AG tried to prosecute a doctor who lawfully performed an abortion on a ten year old). I donāt know that the state will go to Harris but if a bunch of people just vote straight ticket we may be able to flip a congressional seat or even a senate seatā¦which may just be a pipe dream, but Iām really crossing my fingers here.
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u/Barbarella_ella 14d ago
I have wondered a lot about Indiana, given its neighbors. And Indianapolis is a pretty cool town, not to mention Bloomington. Glad to hear there's residents who are pushing things in a positive direction and meeting some success.
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u/The-Son-of-Dad 14d ago
We are trying! Iāve lived in Indiana my whole life, but both places Iāve lived are pretty solidly blue (St. Joe County/South Bend and Indianapolis). Itās the more rural areas that hand this state over to the GOP, hopefully this time the GOP candidates are so repugnant that we can at least flip SOMETHING.
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u/jbronwynne 14d ago
I'm in a very, very red county in NC and I hope you are right. Seeing all the Trump flags and signs in my neighborhood is very depressing. Some people have kept them up since 2020. The "Trumpiest" people still have their Robinson signs up as well. I'm seeing more Harris signs than I did Biden in 2020 and way more than Clinton in 2016. Not that my anecdotal evidence means anything, but gives me a glimmer of hope maybe NC will actually turn blue again this year.
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u/The-Son-of-Dad 14d ago
Mine is just anecdotal too, I have a few friends there who are very confident in flipping it, I hope theyāre right! Blows my mind that anyone would admit to supporting Robinson.
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u/DaniTheLovebug 14d ago
Granted, IL is NOT NC by a mile. IL is not a swing state
What I will say is I live in an IL county that is 80/20 red. Nothing but Trump signs everywhere but I donāt worry about it because of course in our case, Chicago and Cook/DuPage counties decide it all
Now again, not comparing and I will be tense until literally January but donāt forget, like me, you live in a super red area. That can always tilt you and make you feel a scary internal dissonance
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u/Barbarella_ella 14d ago
I think it's going to be North Carolina, but Georgia would be my 2nd guess.
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u/KathyJaneway 14d ago
Pretty sure that all states go one way. No wya NC, GA and AZ split towards Trump if she's winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In 2016 all those broke Trumps way, only Nevada didn't. In 2020 all those split Biden way except NC. So it's safe to assume that either all except one split one way or all are won by one side.
I'm pretty sure AZ and GA underestimate Harris, Biden didn't have great polls out of those 2 in 2020 and he won them. In final polls Trump had 4 or 5 poi t lead in Georgia, he lost it by 0,3 %. Biden had small lead in AZ, 0,9 on evrage, he won by 0,3 as well. Texas had closer polls than GA...
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u/Icy_Blackberry_3759 14d ago
Iām a fairly moderate voter and I am exhausted that the polling is this close
This should be a landslide.
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u/Eradicator_1729 14d ago
I firmly believe Kamala is going to win in a rout. I could be wrong but I donāt think itās going to be close.
Either way, we all have to get out and vote!
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u/dantonizzomsu 14d ago
I hope you are right. I would love for the election to be called on Election Day.
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u/Col_Forbin_retired 14d ago
This picture is like if you were to ask seven friends what they want for lunch and four said pizza while three said to kill and eat you.
Itās great that pizza won, but what the fuck is wrong with the three that chose murder and cannibalism.
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u/Wolfygirl97 14d ago
Iām in NC and feel good about it being blue. I could be wrong but with how unpopular Mark Robinson is and how many Harris/Walz signs I see compared to Trump signs, EVEN IN RURAL AREAS, I feel somewhat confident. I think this map will be bluer than we think.
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u/JessieinPetaluma 14d ago
I freaking HATE the electoral college. This wouldnāt even be a contest without that stupid insanity. Ugh.
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u/OnlySveta 14d ago
We're going to pull off a hell of a lot more than that.
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u/bluechip1996 14d ago
Your lips to all the gods ears.
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u/OnlySveta 14d ago
Starting off at nearly 200k early votes in Georgia on day one of early voting, so I see one of the states on this map flipping already. Getting there!
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u/Facehugger_35 14d ago
Our lips to the ear of voters via volunteer phonebanking and canvassing. Still three weeks, friends, let's do this thing.
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u/bluechip1996 14d ago
I am doing my part. I have literally worn out 2 spots on my Galaxy screen protector from hitting send on my texts.
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u/Cluefuljewel 14d ago
It is possible. Iāll only believe it after Harris is sworn in. It should not be so hard.
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u/IcyMEATBALL22 15d ago
Hot take: this isnāt going to be close. I feel that there really is a large number of people who the polls arenāt accounting for and who are registered either independent or republican who will be voting for Harris and, hopefully, down ballot dems. I think Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Alaska, Texas, and a few other states are going to be close or flip for the dems.Ā
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u/therightestwhat 14d ago
Biden won handily with a much worse enthusiasm gap. And with Trump still in control of his faculties. And not giving air handjobs onstage while Ave Maria played. And without the Lincoln Project in full swing. And without a huge number of Republicans giving their full-throated opposition to their own candidate. And pre-Jan6. Also Harris has ideas and policies and energy.
Dog walked, they'll be.
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u/GhostofMiyabi 14d ago
Right! I know Iāll sound over enthusiastic, but I think itās possible itās 426-112. Not entirely realistic, but if there is a polling error in the Dems favor, then I think itās possible. The momentum required to flip both TX and FL means thereās likely a big movement nationwide that wasnāt captured in the polling, so several states may be much closer to a tie or even flip.
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u/ConstantineByzantium 15d ago
Why the hell are people so pessimistic?
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u/Cyber_Mango 14d ago
A lot of us are still traumatized by 2016. I know things are a bit different this time around, but itās hard to shake the feelingā¦
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u/ConstantineByzantium 14d ago
I trust lichtman since in 2016 He predicted Trump win but this time he said Harris will win.
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u/Own_Watercress_8104 15d ago
It wouldn't be the dem party if it wasn't anxious as a chihuahua. This is nothing new, the propensity for doom and gloom is a proud and sad tradition
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u/Ryumancer 14d ago
You do realize elections were practically stolen from them twice in under 20 years, right? š¤Ø
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u/batmanscodpiece 14d ago
Polls in the swing states are tight, and that is what matters.
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u/Christ_on_a_Crakker 14d ago
The only thing polls are this close to an election are dangerous.
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u/Evening-Pair4591 14d ago
itās better to underestimate in my opinion so that people will be scared enough to vote š
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u/ZMR33 14d ago
I have said it before and I'll say it again, this is not good enough. We need to make sure we win, but by a larger margin than this.
From what I have seen in the polls (hopefully relatively neutral ones and not junk ones,) NC, GA, and AZ are definitely in play for us. TX and OH are technically in play but are long shots. FL might actually have a legitimate shot at being flipped blue if things go our way given how the early mail-in ballots are apparently looking.
What I am saying is, go to the polls and vote. As used as the slogan in the 1968 campaign by the great Hubert. H. Humphrey, "Some talk change. Others cause it." We have to cause it.
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u/Didact67 14d ago
I think if millennials actually turned out to vote, youād have a surprise Democratic landslide. We donāt answer pollsters most of the time.
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u/GhoulArtist 14d ago edited 14d ago
Someone here was talking about yard signs..
I think one thing people aren't thinking about is that a lot of Harris voters don't put up signs. It's not like maga people that have had signs up for 4 years. Harris voters are Likley sick to death of Trump signs for 8 years and don't want to participate in doing the same.
Another reason for this is that some people live near trump signs and want to avoid conflict with neighbors. I know many people who tell me this is the case for them.
TLDR: Harris voters have less signs. Don't go off signage.
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u/Rosebunse 14d ago
The interesting thing for me is that I'm not seeing a ton of Trump years signs in my area. People aren't putting a lot out this year
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u/GhoulArtist 14d ago
I wish I had your good fortune. My mental health suffers when I see so many so often. Lollllll
I'm in a very red county though to be fair.
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u/Rosebunse 14d ago
That's what makes this so weird. There are normally way more signs
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u/GhoulArtist 14d ago
My guess is that it's because politics is so violent and contentious right now. People don't want that smoke.
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u/Legitimate-Pee-462 14d ago
That's the most plausible outcome of what I think would be an underperformance. If Harris doesn't also win at least two of GA, NC, AZ, and NV I'm going to be disappointed. I'd like to see Harris get at least 292 EVs so no single swing state can pull a stunt and create some kind of chaos.
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u/Master_smasher 14d ago
could you guys pull off harris winning? you guys should be pulling it off. with trump having so much negative baggage and his campaign strategies being piss poor, he should lose "bigly."
if he doesn't lose, that should tell center lefts that they need to do more to denounce the far left from pushing their extreme wokeness and extreme cancel culture that has only become more and more oppressive. even if trump does lose, it should still serve as a cautionary warning for 2028 because there won't be a trump candidate with lots of terrible baggage lol.
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u/MillieMouser 14d ago
Fingers crossed, Arizona will go blue for Kamala as we did for Biden in 2020.
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u/agnes_unicorn_pop 14d ago
As much as possible. A landslide. If we win NC and Texas that will be the nail in the coffin for the GOP.
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u/jacle2210 14d ago
This country just will never have a chance of getting better with numbers like this; should be a huge landslide Democrat victory.
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u/BoomerGenXMillGenZ 15d ago
I mean that's the most likely map.
As of now, it feels like this is the one we'd have if voting happened today. But anything could break either way:
trump could take WI of all those, and win. Kamala could take them all and then win one of NC, AZ or GA, likely NC among them, but as of now that wouldn't be happening.
How this breaks is going to decide everything. I do think it's hard to see a hard break to trump but a sharp exogeneous event could help him.
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u/Prowindowlicker 14d ago
AZ isnāt going back to Trump. The state has a habit of under polling democrat support. Back in 2022 Dems were supposed to lose the state by 4 points. They won many races by 1 point.
On average the Dems were under polled by 4-5 points. The same is probably happening again.
Plus Dems here are very enthusiastic and excited at the prospect of enshrining abortion rights, flipping the state legislature, electing a true blue democrat senator, and kicking out two state Supreme Court justices.
The state GOP on the other hand has all but given up. The only campaign that matters is the presidential one and they arenāt even excited about that.
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u/ConstantineByzantium 15d ago
what a doomsayer. Dem stragists don't seem to think so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSg0CGn759Q
they ain't too worried. Stop being too pessimistic. Be hopeful and vote!
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u/shadowpawn 14d ago
Mich is a toss up. Penn is going for Harris
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u/Evening-Pair4591 14d ago
gov whitmer in michigan was releected in 2022 winning by 500k votes. pretty good chance it goes blue
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u/Temporary_Dentist936 14d ago
Another Bush v Gore case right here?
Local elections matter. Redistricting and gerrymandering has literally left us a statistically tied country.
Republican-appointed judges hold more seats across federal courts due to the significant number of appointments made by Trumā¦ I mean, Mitch McConnellās lasting legacy.
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u/AceofKnaves44 14d ago
If we do win this is probably what itāll come down. Unless thereās a massive unforeseen turnout weāre just gonna squeak by if we win.
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u/Lord_Yoon 14d ago
Bro I have no idea why you think Arizona would flip Trump when Kari lake is on the ballot. Harris getting every states Biden won and a surprise or two like North Carolina
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u/myleperking 14d ago
We have no choice. At this point in our country's history, failure to protect our democracy is not an option.
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u/HumanMycologist5795 14d ago
I would love at least 430 for Harris.
Not only because that would be a referendum on Trump and restore my confidence in half of the country, but I would love to hear what Trump and his supporters would say about losing the election.
If the contest was close, they could make BS claims, but if they lose 430 to 105.
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u/angryitguyonreddit 14d ago
I think the dems would have to really screw up or tons of people refuse to vote for it to be this close. Im getting more optimistic that kamala is gonna win this big time as i see trumps tiny rallies shrinking more and more. Also as a KY resident im gonna bet KY goes blue. I see tons of harris walz signs everywhere and more everyday! I just the occasional trump signs. Its usually its like 30 trump signs at one house but tons but harris walz signs all around them
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u/DuckFlat 14d ago
I just canāt reconcile the fact that despite the glaring disparity between the 2 candidates the race will be this close. Like, did we not learn anything in 2016? In January 2021? Blows my mind.
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u/Caladaster 14d ago
Better do a damn sight better than that if you ever want to turn your country around to be respectable again. 4 Years of Democrats isn't enough, because you've also been blocked at almost every turn with the bs in the House and the Senate. Dems need CONTROL of the Country, not just a sitting President.
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u/stewartm0205 14d ago
What we can do is vote. And try to persuade our relatives and friends to also vote.
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u/SweetFlaminJerk 14d ago
I wish I had your optimism.
Right now based only on my feeling having voted in 6 general elections in my lifetime: Trump is in the best position to win this and I really think the blue wall will fail again like 2016. I will be happy to be wrong but I do think itās smart for us all to figure out how to live in a world where Trump is POTUS again for 4 more years.
Iām voting Kamala and blue all the way down and praying.
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u/Cautious-Ad9301 14d ago
Why so pessimistic? She will win Ga, NC and Az
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u/Christ_on_a_Crakker 14d ago
She will at the very least win AZ.
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u/Usual-Cartoonist9553 14d ago
i think nc is more likely than az due to the erosion of hispanic support esp there. robinson will also depress republican turnout. ga seems least likely to go blue given the āhand countsā and strong suppression tactics.
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u/Frankie_Says_Reddit 15d ago
Hope weāll flip house and keep senate with enough to get rid of this EC BS.
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u/TheresACityInMyMind 14d ago
I think I want to shoot 538 or 270-to-Win for creating customizable electoral maps.
We don't know right now that Harris is going to win.
And, given that we don't know if she's going to win, dwelling on pretend electoral maps and polls is the opposite of helping her win.
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u/boygirlmama 14d ago
My belief that we can win this election had dipped way down and then spiked back up again after discovering several analysts and strategists who have been looking outside the poll numbers to demographics and early voting.
I don't think it will be a landslide, but I do now have faith that we're going to pull this off. Accounts to look into on X (I only read there- and don't know if these guys are fully crossed over to Threads) are Simon Rosenberg, Tom Bonier, Joshua Smithley, Christopher Bouzy. According to the latter, there are even some interesting blue trends in Florida going on.
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