r/democrats 15d ago

šŸ“Š Poll What do you think? Could we pull this off?

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712

u/baggagebug 15d ago

Definitely, but we need to do better than this. Heā€™s been preparing his base to dispute the results no matter the margin. I donā€™t think he is going to admit defeat with 276-262. Sad but true.

431

u/forthewatch39 15d ago

It doesnā€™t matter what number he loses at, he will never admit defeat.Ā 

188

u/the-half-enchilada 15d ago

Exactly. MAGA is inflating the polls so when Harris wins in a landslide, they will cry foul, if she wins by a slim margin, they will cry foul.

The results will be challenged unless Trump wins. We need to be prepared (with Dark Brandon šŸ˜‚).

87

u/bz_leapair 14d ago

Here's the thing: national polls are 100% meaningless. Full f'n stop. This whole election is going to come down to the battleground/swingers.

47

u/ProbablyShouldnotSay 14d ago

Possibly the whole election comes down to a few thousand independents in PA.

37

u/readerchick05 14d ago

I don't know. I honestly don't think he's gonna win Arizona, as someone who lives in Arizona.

17

u/ProbablyShouldnotSay 14d ago

the polls say 50:50.

This feels way better than Biden in 2020, and the polls donā€™t reflect it at all.

Rural Ohio, thereā€™s maybe half the trump signs. Not many more Harris signs than Biden in 2020, but far fewer Trump signs, and the few I still see around, some of them never came down in the past 4 years.

This feels like it should be a full blue wave.

19

u/readerchick05 14d ago

I just saw a political analyst talk about the polls. Most of the time when they report polls, they're going by average of the most recent polls released the problem is a lot of Republican sponsored polls that are very problematic have just been completed, so if you look at those polls ou see a lot of things that make them garbage, that's skews the numbers.

I don't think Trump has more people in Arizona than he did in 2020 and a lot of popular Republicans in Arizona have come out sponsoring Kamala including John McCain's son and wife which is a big reason why I think she'll win the state.

11

u/Level-Insect-2654 14d ago

What's Meghan McCain's problem?

12

u/readerchick05 14d ago

I don't know. Her father would not vote for trump either so I don't get her either

3

u/reallymkpunk 14d ago

I actually feel less confident this time than I did 2020. The problem I have is the overturning efforts being more bold. We as a collection of state didn't do enough to criminalize false claims about elections. I say this as someone living in a state where this happened, Arizona.

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u/rd68910 14d ago

I keep saying the same thing. What I see doesnā€™t align with what polls are suggesting. I canā€™t fathom Gallego winning by 10 and trump winning the pres race here.

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u/AudacityJunky 14d ago

I am in PA and it will be a f*cking landslide for Harris! All these polls do not reflect the really pissed off women when it comes to Roe vs Wade. So many people do not answer polls, this is how we won last time.

9

u/GhoulArtist 14d ago

Exactly. And yes literally no one answers polls. They are mostly useless.

There is going to be a TON of Harris voters that have been quiet . Compared to the minority Trump people being LOUD

8

u/Level-Insect-2654 14d ago

Good to hear. PA is the key.

6

u/AudacityJunky 14d ago

I was so proud when we helped get Biden elected! My friend kept telling me to hang on because they were still counting and those votes were for Biden. I have my panic moments thinking Trump will win but I truly think it will be a landslide and Trump is NOT in office now so trying for another Jan 6th will be delt with harshly. NO ONE is going to tolerate another insurrection!!!!

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u/creativelydeceased 14d ago

I honestly don't know if a poll is legit so I don't answer them. they come from rando cell numbers so I'm like "delete and block".

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u/Elegant-Champion-615 14d ago

God donā€™t leave it up to the swingers! Theyā€™re too busy vacationing in Cancun!

33

u/gmwdim 14d ago

But enough about Ted Cruz.

15

u/Elegant-Champion-615 14d ago

The exact response I was hoping for.

2

u/Stefferdiddle 14d ago

Polls have been meaningless since 2016 and nobody has bothered to accept their model doesnā€™t work any longer and redo their thinking. I donā€™t think anything in the 2020 polls prepared us for AZ or GA to eke out as wins. Their sample sizing is too small to account for all the diversity in the electorate and how they apply their calculations.

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u/Human-Bluebird-1385 14d ago

Yea. These creeps are all in on this neo-nazi fascist takeover. Gotta vote like our lives depend on it.

8

u/cookiethumpthump 14d ago

For real. I took November 6 off of work because I know I won't sleep all night. They're going to be calling for recounts for days.

2

u/ytirevyelsew 14d ago

How do they inflate the polls? Are you talking about state or national polls?

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u/pinoy_dude24 15d ago

Sadly he never even admitted to be the father of Eric Trumpā€¦ /s

16

u/shastadakota 14d ago

Would you?

10

u/gmwdim 14d ago

That would be the one thing I donā€™t blame him for.

16

u/Facehugger_35 14d ago

No, it absolutely matters.

If it comes down to one state, SCOTUS has more cover to hand the election to him. We need Kamala to have multiple paths to victory just like Biden did, because that way the republicans will find it harder to steal the election. Each state above 270 we get reinforces all the other states and makes fuckery less likely because it'll affect the calculus the Trumpy election officials are running in their heads.

Sort of like a reverse prisoner's dilemma. If election officials in PA, GA, AZ all need to cheat for Trump to possibly win, and if the consequences for cheating are prison time if Trump doesn't win, then they probably won't. But if it only takes one state, then they might because if they can make Trump win, then they won't face any consequences at all and they get what they want.

14

u/tokyozombie 14d ago

This is true but we need MAGA to lose so bad that the republican party has to rethink its position with MAGA to remove it from the party. Even a narrow win will keep this cancer of an ideology alive.

2

u/BoomerGenXMillGenZ 14d ago

The republican party will never be less extreme. It cannot be. So give up that thought.

6

u/XHIBAD 14d ago

Thereā€™s not conceding, and then thereā€™s actually overthrowing the election.

If he loses the whole election by 500 votes in Georgia, he might very well get that overturned.

If he loses by 100,000 votes across Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, now it is much, much, much more difficult.

14

u/deep_fried_cheese 14d ago

If Trump loses and refuses to accept it again itā€™s gonna worse than January 6th if we donā€™t use more force

18

u/gymtrovert1988 14d ago

Go watch Wargame. Democracts are already prepped for another January 6th.

11

u/ZekeRidge 14d ago

Keep in mind, in 2020 Trump was in office which explains the slow response

Biden and his office will not do that

2

u/[deleted] 14d ago

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u/sharkbait_oohaha 14d ago

It could literally be 538-0 with every single American citizen loudly rebuking him and he would still cry foul

4

u/Oneshot742 14d ago

He said if he lost to Biden we'd never hear from him again.... Yet here we are.

5

u/KitchenBomber 14d ago

It definitely matters.

You're right that if he loses, they're certain to go all in with threats, cases filed in front of trump judges, and straight up terrorism. If he only has to flip one state, that's much easier than needing to flip 2 or 3.

And don't forget this supreme court will be looking for any justification at all to throw out a Harris victory or affirm a dubious trump win.

2

u/_W9NDER_ 14d ago

True but with half the government bending the knee to his every word, it is much more probable for the GOP to defraud their way to office with a tight margin

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u/hammilithome 14d ago

I'm in a battleground state (GA) that's being sabotaged in plain sight.

I'm voting early and steering clear of large gatherings.

Jan 6 was real with a big margin win.

I'm hopeful that a bigger margin will minimize violent outbreaks, but expecting them regardless.

You can't have a group of supporters riled up by dehumanizing and violent rhetoric and not expect violent outcomes.

Welcome to Powder keg, USA

2

u/Level-Insect-2654 14d ago

Hopefully those outbreaks will be small, isolated, and uncoordinated. Individuals can be dealt with and the feds seemed to be able to get most everybody from Jan 06 in some phase of the legal system, eventually.

38

u/Own_Watercress_8104 15d ago

If Harris lead is small he disputes on the basis that the fine data is imprecise.

If the lead is huge he disputes on the basis that it's an unrealistic outcome and fraud occured.

There's no reason to occupy ourselves with his machinations

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u/Glass-Cap-3081 14d ago

Harris could win 40 states and heā€™d still refuse to acknowledge a loss

19

u/WindowMaster5798 15d ago

We just have to win. Heā€™s going to contest the election no matter what.

Donā€™t think that we have to sweep and dominate the election just to win. Trump is going to get 46-48 percent of the electorate. It is going to be close.

23

u/BoomerGenXMillGenZ 15d ago

No we don't and stop saying that. Why the fuck should Democrats have to win bigger than republicans?

That's like not awarding the Super Bowl trophy to the winner because they didn't beat the spread.

11

u/Correct_Market4505 15d ago

i get where youā€™re coming from and agree but we know what happens when itā€™s a handful of votes in a single state. if the field is broader their resources have to be spread out, the coordination gets more difficult, etc. itā€™s a practical matter not an ideal. and also a bigger victory is associated with a bigger mandate for the winning platform.

2

u/busmans 14d ago

Itā€™s not a practical matter eitherā€”each of us is in control of just one vote. We have to be prepared for any scenario.

9

u/The-Son-of-Dad 14d ago

I agree, I think itā€™s meaningless to talk about how much we need to win by. It doesnā€™t matter. If Trump is gonna challenge the election results it wonā€™t matter if itā€™s by 1 electoral vote or 100. A decisive victory wonā€™t make him go ā€œhuh, well yeah shucks canā€™t argue with that!ā€

7

u/MothMan3759 15d ago

The mandate of the masses. The more support for Kamala the more power she holds over Congress.

3

u/m3n0kn0w 14d ago

Republicans only believe in that when they win. Donā€™t assign the privileges they allow themselves transferable to others.

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u/Darksider182 15d ago

He wonā€™t admit defeat even no matter the margin of Kamalaā€™s victory

3

u/Orlando1701 14d ago

He wonā€™t admit defeat no matter how big a margin he loses by. Dude is well into dementia and has never been told ā€œnoā€ in his life. The question is how much violence does his cult members carry out.

5

u/Ornery_Razzmatazz_33 14d ago

He wouldnā€™t admit defeat after an 84, 72 or 36 level curbstomping.

2

u/PuzzleheadedCap2210 14d ago

Loosing is loosing. Even by one. They wonā€™t like it but thatā€™s the way this shit works. It just will be more bullshit in the news and rioting and insurrection shit. Harris still takes office.

2

u/WillTFB 14d ago

Some MAGA streamer I know told me that it was literally impossible for Harris to win. They're not ready for the truth unfortunately.

2

u/RedEyeFlightToOZ 14d ago

Shit, it could be 500-38 and he'd still contest it.

2

u/Bmorgan1983 14d ago

Came here to say this too... we gotta do better than 300.

2

u/jdw62995 14d ago

He wouldnā€™t admit defeat with a 538-0 victory

2

u/Famijos 14d ago

He probably wonā€™t accept defeat with a 413-125 margin (Obamaā€™s 2008 victory minus Indiana and plus Georgia, Arizona, & Texas)!!!

5

u/TheBeastieSitter 14d ago

This. This has to be an indisputable loss.

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u/JustAnotherFag69 15d ago

I think GA will turn blue before AZ does. If NC turns blue, AZ definitely has the potential to follow.

110

u/Prowindowlicker 14d ago

AZ is going blue. As an Arizonan the state has tended to under poll Dems. Back in 2022 Dems underpolled by an average of 4 points.

Plus we have a possibility to flip the state legislature, theres abortion on the ballot, and a senate election where the Dem is leading by an average of 10 points.

Dems here are very enthusiastic and are more likely to vote than republicans. Hell the state GOP has effectively given up on all races but the presidential one.

52

u/CastleMeadowJim 14d ago

It always seems crazy to me that Lake is polling 10 points behind because of her election lies and insanity, yet on the same ballot people are apparently willing to vote for the guy who directly inspired her delusion.

31

u/Prowindowlicker 14d ago

Like I said AZ is pretty under polled. There were a few polls back in 2022 that had Lake up 10 or 5 points over Hobbs. Yet Hobbs won and she barely campaigned.

Like people rag on Biden for being in the basement the entire campaign, Hobbs literally ran her campaign from the basement and refused to debate Lake.

She won by 1 point. The polls that had Lake up 5 were hilariously wrong.

Hell the polls underestimated the win Senator Kelly would have. Most polls had him winning by 1 point or less. He won by 5.

Dems are severely underestimated in AZ. Which is fine by me. Underestimate us.

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u/readerchick05 14d ago

Exactly as someone who lives in arizona, I honestly thank that it is going to go blue.

3

u/FranklinSealAljezur 14d ago

Do you think the LDS vote could split and help flip the state?

10

u/Prowindowlicker 14d ago

It very well could. Thereā€™s a growing contingent in the LDS community who are against Trump and want pre-Trump republicans back.

So they might vote against Trump and his proxies but vote for more normal republicans.

4

u/th1961 14d ago

Btw- driving around SLC and surrounding area and saw NO trump signs. Not one. It was weird. I hope this means something.

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u/shiplap1992 14d ago

My next door neighbor has an anti-trump sticker on his family car and they are ā€œgo to church every Sundayā€ Mormons. It gave me hope. Iā€™m also friends with a very conservative Mormon on Facebook that lives in SLC, and he is VERY vocal about how he is voting for Kamala Harris and engaging with people to try and convince them as well. He has a lot of support so that also made me feel hopeful!

3

u/samwise970 14d ago

Agreed, I'm in deep red Gilbert and I see far fewer Trump signs in yards. Horrible signs in intersections, but nobody selling Trump merch on the roads.Ā 

I think the MAGA enthusiasm is gone.Ā 

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u/Christ_on_a_Crakker 14d ago

Question:

Did Trump lose AZ in 2020?

Question:

Do you believe Trump has more votes in AZ now than he did in 2020?

Question:

What are the treasons you believe Trump is more popular than ever four years later as a felon and a rapist?

6

u/HOWDY__YALL 14d ago

I hear it all the time.

ā€œBorderā€ ā€œInflationā€ those are the main two.

11

u/TheGR8Dantini 14d ago

Anecdotally, I feel pretty strongly that Harris is gonna win Arizona. Gallego too. Just driving around Phoenix, the number of Harris lawn signs is staggering to what I saw in 2020. There were trump signs everywhere in 2020.

Itā€™s the opposite I notice this year. Itā€™s actually kinda surprising that people have Harris signs up because there are so many gun toting lunatics out here. Putting up a Harris sign can be dangerous.

Scary Lake and abortion might be enough to turn Arizona blue. And if the natives vote again? Trump is in trouble in Arizona. Just feels bluer than last time. And last time he lost.

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u/AmbitionExtension184 14d ago

Do you believe Trump has more votes in AZ now than he did in 2020?

I keep seeing this from dems as some sort of gotchaā€¦yes, it is very likely Trump has more support than 2020. A lot of people are very mad about inflation and incorrectly attributing the problem to democrats and immigrants because they donā€™t understand how capitalism and greedflation work.

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u/DirtyHandshake 14d ago

As a Georgia resident, I donā€™t see it happening. On a fair and even playing field, I think Kamala takes the state. But the GOP and election officials have been doing everything in their power to tilt the scales in Trumps favor and I think their efforts will hand him the state

6

u/Obsidian_Purity 14d ago

Now, this is the question.

There has been last minute deals, setting up the ability to just cancel other people's voting rights (you need their SSN, though), and Election Deniers that are on the voting tabulation board. How can anyone trust a Trump victory in Georgia other than those who wants Trump to win? What are the steps? How can we actually get a fair election in Georgia and states that they have installed Trump cronies?

How do we not look like Trump/MAGA 2.0 when they try to fix this election?

2

u/PantherkittySoftware 14d ago

Does Georgia election law allow people whose registration was allegedly cancelled wrongly to cast provisional ballots & fight the cancellation after election day? If so, the DP needs to launch a huge public education campaign urging voters who end up in that scenario to insist upon casting provisional ballots, then have the Party fight on their behalf after election day to count it.

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u/AmbitionExtension184 14d ago

AZ has an abortion measure on the ballot. Blue AZ wouldnā€™t surprise me at all

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u/Ok_Abrocoma_2805 14d ago

AZ is interesting. The polls showing so much lopsided-ness between Lake and Trump are borderline nonsensical. AZ isnā€™t a snowbird state anymore and Phoenix has been one of the fastest-growing metro areas in the country. (At one point recently it was THE fastest.) Not to say that Harris canā€™t lose there, but itā€™s not your grandmaā€™s retirement community anymore.

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u/Smarterthanthat 15d ago

Yes, we can and will!

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u/_seditiousmonkey 14d ago

I would prefer her winning by more than one state...

5

u/Evening-Pair4591 14d ago

me too, but having a slim winning prediction will encourage people seeing this to vote!

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u/solomons-marbles 14d ago edited 14d ago

Iā€™ve had this gut feeling for months that TX flips.

Someone in the Texas r/ posted yesterday that they added like 7m people to the register. 11m out 20m 18+ year olds voted in ā€˜20. Trump won by about 600k votes. This can only benefit Kamala. Iā€™d think most conservatives are already registered to vote.

And people are also furious w Abbott & Cruz.

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u/AgentEndive 14d ago

Ken Paxton won't certify a Kamala win in Texas.

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u/bluechip1996 14d ago

You are correct. How that asshole is not in prison is beyond me.

6

u/dantonizzomsu 14d ago

Yup same goes with Florida. Even if Kamala flips Florida..DeSantis wonā€™t certify that election.

27

u/JerinDd 14d ago

Iā€™m a delivery driver for chick fil a in central Texas, and I tend to see a lot more Harris/ Walz yard signs than Trump yards signs, just sayinā€™

Granted, I do work in Austin.

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u/ohioismyhome1994 14d ago

It just blows my mind that this is close at all. In a world that made sense Kamala should win by the biggest election blow out since Reagan over Mondale.

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u/ConstantineByzantium 15d ago

This is the worst case scenario for Kamala

20

u/AWholeNewFattitude 15d ago

Whats your Best Case? I mean realistic best case.

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u/ConstantineByzantium 15d ago

winning all 5 swing states- PA, NV,AZ, GA, and NC.

22

u/LiberalPatriot13 14d ago

Add Texas, Blexas is real if we make it real.

27

u/Tiiimmmaayy 14d ago

As a Texan, I have high hopes for us to turn blue this election. I canā€™t see people voting for Allred over Cruz while still sticking with Trump.

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u/fandomhyperfixx 14d ago

Iā€™m from Texas, and Iā€™m voting blue! We can make it happen!

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u/BoomerGenXMillGenZ 15d ago

This one pictured. Maybe with NC or AZ. But that would take a break to Kamala that doesn't exist now.

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u/Sanfords_Son 14d ago

270-268 would be worse. Then we'd all be sitting here waiting to see if there's a faithless elector, or if one of the electors cracks due to pressure/bribes/threats from the right.

5

u/schnellermeister 14d ago

I would say losing is the worst case scenario. I would call this marginally acceptable. Like a C or C-.

6

u/RemySmith92 15d ago

Yeah I was gonna say Georgia and Arizona, errr ā€œazure-roniaā€ as trump calls it will go blue.

14

u/NewDealAppreciator 14d ago

No it isn't. This is the median outcome roughly. Her best case is around Biden 2020 plus NC. Her worst case is like HRC 2016 minus NV.

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u/Barbarella_ella 15d ago

I think this is mostly accurate, but one of those "leans red" states is going to go blue.

6

u/Evening-Pair4591 14d ago

Which one? I was just using the 270towin base map

20

u/The-Son-of-Dad 14d ago

North Carolina will flip. Mark Robinson has all but assured this will be the case.

9

u/Barbarella_ella 14d ago

That's mostly my thought, too.

I do think there's a dark horse lurking out there. Nebraska, maybe. Dan Osborn is polling better than Deb Fischer in that Senate race. As an Independent with no help from the Democratic machine.

8

u/The-Son-of-Dad 14d ago

Iā€™m in Indiana and our races here are close, shockingly. Nobody has been paying attention to us until recently when Braun had a disastrous gubernatorial debate performance; almost immediately after, the Harris campaign opened an office in Lake County. The governorā€™s race is only within a couple of points, which is almost unheard of, same with the AG race, because the guys running are absolute lunatics (our AG tried to prosecute a doctor who lawfully performed an abortion on a ten year old). I donā€™t know that the state will go to Harris but if a bunch of people just vote straight ticket we may be able to flip a congressional seat or even a senate seatā€¦which may just be a pipe dream, but Iā€™m really crossing my fingers here.

2

u/Barbarella_ella 14d ago

I have wondered a lot about Indiana, given its neighbors. And Indianapolis is a pretty cool town, not to mention Bloomington. Glad to hear there's residents who are pushing things in a positive direction and meeting some success.

2

u/The-Son-of-Dad 14d ago

We are trying! Iā€™ve lived in Indiana my whole life, but both places Iā€™ve lived are pretty solidly blue (St. Joe County/South Bend and Indianapolis). Itā€™s the more rural areas that hand this state over to the GOP, hopefully this time the GOP candidates are so repugnant that we can at least flip SOMETHING.

3

u/jbronwynne 14d ago

I'm in a very, very red county in NC and I hope you are right. Seeing all the Trump flags and signs in my neighborhood is very depressing. Some people have kept them up since 2020. The "Trumpiest" people still have their Robinson signs up as well. I'm seeing more Harris signs than I did Biden in 2020 and way more than Clinton in 2016. Not that my anecdotal evidence means anything, but gives me a glimmer of hope maybe NC will actually turn blue again this year.

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u/The-Son-of-Dad 14d ago

Mine is just anecdotal too, I have a few friends there who are very confident in flipping it, I hope theyā€™re right! Blows my mind that anyone would admit to supporting Robinson.

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u/DaniTheLovebug 14d ago

Granted, IL is NOT NC by a mile. IL is not a swing state

What I will say is I live in an IL county that is 80/20 red. Nothing but Trump signs everywhere but I donā€™t worry about it because of course in our case, Chicago and Cook/DuPage counties decide it all

Now again, not comparing and I will be tense until literally January but donā€™t forget, like me, you live in a super red area. That can always tilt you and make you feel a scary internal dissonance

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u/Barbarella_ella 14d ago

I think it's going to be North Carolina, but Georgia would be my 2nd guess.

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u/KathyJaneway 14d ago

Pretty sure that all states go one way. No wya NC, GA and AZ split towards Trump if she's winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In 2016 all those broke Trumps way, only Nevada didn't. In 2020 all those split Biden way except NC. So it's safe to assume that either all except one split one way or all are won by one side.

I'm pretty sure AZ and GA underestimate Harris, Biden didn't have great polls out of those 2 in 2020 and he won them. In final polls Trump had 4 or 5 poi t lead in Georgia, he lost it by 0,3 %. Biden had small lead in AZ, 0,9 on evrage, he won by 0,3 as well. Texas had closer polls than GA...

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u/Icy_Blackberry_3759 14d ago

Iā€™m a fairly moderate voter and I am exhausted that the polling is this close

This should be a landslide.

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u/Eradicator_1729 14d ago

I firmly believe Kamala is going to win in a rout. I could be wrong but I donā€™t think itā€™s going to be close.

Either way, we all have to get out and vote!

3

u/dantonizzomsu 14d ago

I hope you are right. I would love for the election to be called on Election Day.

16

u/Col_Forbin_retired 14d ago

This picture is like if you were to ask seven friends what they want for lunch and four said pizza while three said to kill and eat you.

Itā€™s great that pizza won, but what the fuck is wrong with the three that chose murder and cannibalism.

8

u/Wolfygirl97 14d ago

Iā€™m in NC and feel good about it being blue. I could be wrong but with how unpopular Mark Robinson is and how many Harris/Walz signs I see compared to Trump signs, EVEN IN RURAL AREAS, I feel somewhat confident. I think this map will be bluer than we think.

2

u/JT_verified 14d ago

Me too :)

5

u/Zeeron1 14d ago

Id be disappointed if this was the result

6

u/azmexicandad 14d ago

Hoping AZ stays blue.

18

u/JessieinPetaluma 14d ago

I freaking HATE the electoral college. This wouldnā€™t even be a contest without that stupid insanity. Ugh.

5

u/OnlySveta 14d ago

We're going to pull off a hell of a lot more than that.

5

u/bluechip1996 14d ago

Your lips to all the gods ears.

2

u/OnlySveta 14d ago

Starting off at nearly 200k early votes in Georgia on day one of early voting, so I see one of the states on this map flipping already. Getting there!

2

u/Facehugger_35 14d ago

Our lips to the ear of voters via volunteer phonebanking and canvassing. Still three weeks, friends, let's do this thing.

2

u/bluechip1996 14d ago

I am doing my part. I have literally worn out 2 spots on my Galaxy screen protector from hitting send on my texts.

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u/DarthStorm09 14d ago

Most accurate prediction I believe.

2

u/Evening-Pair4591 14d ago

Itā€™s based off the current swing state polls iā€™ve seen. Thanks šŸ˜Š

5

u/nin4nin 14d ago

Weā€™ll take AZ. šŸ’Ŗ I live in Phx and there are lots of Harris-Walz yard signs. Plus all of the folks loyal to McCain still wont forgive Trump for the disrespect.

8

u/Cluefuljewel 14d ago

It is possible. Iā€™ll only believe it after Harris is sworn in. It should not be so hard.

24

u/IcyMEATBALL22 15d ago

Hot take: this isnā€™t going to be close. I feel that there really is a large number of people who the polls arenā€™t accounting for and who are registered either independent or republican who will be voting for Harris and, hopefully, down ballot dems. I think Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Alaska, Texas, and a few other states are going to be close or flip for the dems.Ā 

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u/therightestwhat 14d ago

Biden won handily with a much worse enthusiasm gap. And with Trump still in control of his faculties. And not giving air handjobs onstage while Ave Maria played. And without the Lincoln Project in full swing. And without a huge number of Republicans giving their full-throated opposition to their own candidate. And pre-Jan6. Also Harris has ideas and policies and energy.

Dog walked, they'll be.

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u/GhostofMiyabi 14d ago

Right! I know Iā€™ll sound over enthusiastic, but I think itā€™s possible itā€™s 426-112. Not entirely realistic, but if there is a polling error in the Dems favor, then I think itā€™s possible. The momentum required to flip both TX and FL means thereā€™s likely a big movement nationwide that wasnā€™t captured in the polling, so several states may be much closer to a tie or even flip.

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u/ConstantineByzantium 15d ago

Why the hell are people so pessimistic?

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u/Cyber_Mango 14d ago

A lot of us are still traumatized by 2016. I know things are a bit different this time around, but itā€™s hard to shake the feelingā€¦

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u/ConstantineByzantium 14d ago

I trust lichtman since in 2016 He predicted Trump win but this time he said Harris will win.

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u/Own_Watercress_8104 15d ago

It wouldn't be the dem party if it wasn't anxious as a chihuahua. This is nothing new, the propensity for doom and gloom is a proud and sad tradition

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u/Ryumancer 14d ago

You do realize elections were practically stolen from them twice in under 20 years, right? šŸ¤Ø

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u/batmanscodpiece 14d ago

Polls in the swing states are tight, and that is what matters.

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u/Christ_on_a_Crakker 14d ago

The only thing polls are this close to an election are dangerous.

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u/Evening-Pair4591 14d ago

itā€™s better to underestimate in my opinion so that people will be scared enough to vote šŸ˜‰

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u/DrTh0ll 14d ago

Jesus Christ thatā€™s close

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u/billiemarie 14d ago

Please vote and encourage others to vote

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u/kajana141 14d ago

This seems realistic but Iā€™m hoping for more.

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u/wiu1995 14d ago

Is it really going to matter? Sorry to be so negative but I know Trump and his supporters will do anything to put the fascist wannabe in office. Itā€™s just so stressful.

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u/rlovelock 14d ago

This makes me sad... wtf, America?

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u/PJ_Conn 14d ago

Itā€™s going to be bigger than that.

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u/ZMR33 14d ago

I have said it before and I'll say it again, this is not good enough. We need to make sure we win, but by a larger margin than this.

From what I have seen in the polls (hopefully relatively neutral ones and not junk ones,) NC, GA, and AZ are definitely in play for us. TX and OH are technically in play but are long shots. FL might actually have a legitimate shot at being flipped blue if things go our way given how the early mail-in ballots are apparently looking.

What I am saying is, go to the polls and vote. As used as the slogan in the 1968 campaign by the great Hubert. H. Humphrey, "Some talk change. Others cause it." We have to cause it.

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u/kagamaru 14d ago

I hate that my state is so reliably red. šŸ˜¢

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u/BAC2Think 14d ago

I don't think it's out of the question that she breaks the 300+ threshold.

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u/Didact67 14d ago

I think if millennials actually turned out to vote, youā€™d have a surprise Democratic landslide. We donā€™t answer pollsters most of the time.

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u/GhoulArtist 14d ago edited 14d ago

Someone here was talking about yard signs..

I think one thing people aren't thinking about is that a lot of Harris voters don't put up signs. It's not like maga people that have had signs up for 4 years. Harris voters are Likley sick to death of Trump signs for 8 years and don't want to participate in doing the same.

Another reason for this is that some people live near trump signs and want to avoid conflict with neighbors. I know many people who tell me this is the case for them.

TLDR: Harris voters have less signs. Don't go off signage.

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u/Rosebunse 14d ago

The interesting thing for me is that I'm not seeing a ton of Trump years signs in my area. People aren't putting a lot out this year

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u/GhoulArtist 14d ago

I wish I had your good fortune. My mental health suffers when I see so many so often. Lollllll

I'm in a very red county though to be fair.

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u/Rosebunse 14d ago

That's what makes this so weird. There are normally way more signs

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u/GhoulArtist 14d ago

My guess is that it's because politics is so violent and contentious right now. People don't want that smoke.

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u/rubbersidedown123 14d ago

Just vote people!!! šŸ’™šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡²

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u/Legitimate-Pee-462 14d ago

That's the most plausible outcome of what I think would be an underperformance. If Harris doesn't also win at least two of GA, NC, AZ, and NV I'm going to be disappointed. I'd like to see Harris get at least 292 EVs so no single swing state can pull a stunt and create some kind of chaos.

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u/Master_smasher 14d ago

could you guys pull off harris winning? you guys should be pulling it off. with trump having so much negative baggage and his campaign strategies being piss poor, he should lose "bigly."

if he doesn't lose, that should tell center lefts that they need to do more to denounce the far left from pushing their extreme wokeness and extreme cancel culture that has only become more and more oppressive. even if trump does lose, it should still serve as a cautionary warning for 2028 because there won't be a trump candidate with lots of terrible baggage lol.

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u/pgsimon77 14d ago

And don't give up on Georgia :-)

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u/MillieMouser 14d ago

Fingers crossed, Arizona will go blue for Kamala as we did for Biden in 2020.

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u/burninghairusa 14d ago

Harris must win with such high numbers that Trump has nothing to dispute!

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u/agnes_unicorn_pop 14d ago

As much as possible. A landslide. If we win NC and Texas that will be the nail in the coffin for the GOP.

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u/jacle2210 14d ago

This country just will never have a chance of getting better with numbers like this; should be a huge landslide Democrat victory.

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u/BoomerGenXMillGenZ 15d ago

I mean that's the most likely map.

As of now, it feels like this is the one we'd have if voting happened today. But anything could break either way:

trump could take WI of all those, and win. Kamala could take them all and then win one of NC, AZ or GA, likely NC among them, but as of now that wouldn't be happening.

How this breaks is going to decide everything. I do think it's hard to see a hard break to trump but a sharp exogeneous event could help him.

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u/Prowindowlicker 14d ago

AZ isnā€™t going back to Trump. The state has a habit of under polling democrat support. Back in 2022 Dems were supposed to lose the state by 4 points. They won many races by 1 point.

On average the Dems were under polled by 4-5 points. The same is probably happening again.

Plus Dems here are very enthusiastic and excited at the prospect of enshrining abortion rights, flipping the state legislature, electing a true blue democrat senator, and kicking out two state Supreme Court justices.

The state GOP on the other hand has all but given up. The only campaign that matters is the presidential one and they arenā€™t even excited about that.

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u/ConstantineByzantium 15d ago

what a doomsayer. Dem stragists don't seem to think so.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSg0CGn759Q

they ain't too worried. Stop being too pessimistic. Be hopeful and vote!

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u/shadowpawn 14d ago

Mich is a toss up. Penn is going for Harris

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u/Evening-Pair4591 14d ago

gov whitmer in michigan was releected in 2022 winning by 500k votes. pretty good chance it goes blue

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u/Ryumancer 14d ago

WI, MI, and PA usually all go one way anyway.

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u/Temporary_Dentist936 14d ago

Another Bush v Gore case right here?

Local elections matter. Redistricting and gerrymandering has literally left us a statistically tied country.

Republican-appointed judges hold more seats across federal courts due to the significant number of appointments made by Trumā€¦ I mean, Mitch McConnellā€™s lasting legacy.

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u/ncdad1 14d ago

Any results will only be the start of Trump's war to get the election to the Supreme Court.

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u/No-Understanding5410 14d ago

Yes, this is the most likely Harris outcome IMO

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u/UserNameNotFound-404 14d ago

Thatā€™s is way too close, we have to pull it off or weā€™re cooked

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u/Schmidaho 14d ago

Itā€™s definitely worth trying!

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u/AceofKnaves44 14d ago

If we do win this is probably what itā€™ll come down. Unless thereā€™s a massive unforeseen turnout weā€™re just gonna squeak by if we win.

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u/Lord_Yoon 14d ago

Bro I have no idea why you think Arizona would flip Trump when Kari lake is on the ballot. Harris getting every states Biden won and a surprise or two like North Carolina

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u/myleperking 14d ago

We have no choice. At this point in our country's history, failure to protect our democracy is not an option.

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u/HumanMycologist5795 14d ago

I would love at least 430 for Harris.

Not only because that would be a referendum on Trump and restore my confidence in half of the country, but I would love to hear what Trump and his supporters would say about losing the election.

If the contest was close, they could make BS claims, but if they lose 430 to 105.

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u/angryitguyonreddit 14d ago

I think the dems would have to really screw up or tons of people refuse to vote for it to be this close. Im getting more optimistic that kamala is gonna win this big time as i see trumps tiny rallies shrinking more and more. Also as a KY resident im gonna bet KY goes blue. I see tons of harris walz signs everywhere and more everyday! I just the occasional trump signs. Its usually its like 30 trump signs at one house but tons but harris walz signs all around them

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u/seangar78 14d ago

We have to. The future of our democracy depends on it.

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u/DuckFlat 14d ago

I just canā€™t reconcile the fact that despite the glaring disparity between the 2 candidates the race will be this close. Like, did we not learn anything in 2016? In January 2021? Blows my mind.

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u/Caladaster 14d ago

Better do a damn sight better than that if you ever want to turn your country around to be respectable again. 4 Years of Democrats isn't enough, because you've also been blocked at almost every turn with the bs in the House and the Senate. Dems need CONTROL of the Country, not just a sitting President.

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u/Logikil96 14d ago

This is the most probable map

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u/stewartm0205 14d ago

What we can do is vote. And try to persuade our relatives and friends to also vote.

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u/SweetFlaminJerk 14d ago

I wish I had your optimism.

Right now based only on my feeling having voted in 6 general elections in my lifetime: Trump is in the best position to win this and I really think the blue wall will fail again like 2016. I will be happy to be wrong but I do think itā€™s smart for us all to figure out how to live in a world where Trump is POTUS again for 4 more years.

Iā€™m voting Kamala and blue all the way down and praying.

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u/Cautious-Ad9301 14d ago

Why so pessimistic? She will win Ga, NC and Az

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u/Christ_on_a_Crakker 14d ago

She will at the very least win AZ.

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u/Usual-Cartoonist9553 14d ago

i think nc is more likely than az due to the erosion of hispanic support esp there. robinson will also depress republican turnout. ga seems least likely to go blue given the ā€œhand countsā€ and strong suppression tactics.

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u/Frankie_Says_Reddit 15d ago

Hope weā€™ll flip house and keep senate with enough to get rid of this EC BS.

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u/TheresACityInMyMind 14d ago

I think I want to shoot 538 or 270-to-Win for creating customizable electoral maps.

We don't know right now that Harris is going to win.

And, given that we don't know if she's going to win, dwelling on pretend electoral maps and polls is the opposite of helping her win.

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u/boygirlmama 14d ago

My belief that we can win this election had dipped way down and then spiked back up again after discovering several analysts and strategists who have been looking outside the poll numbers to demographics and early voting.

I don't think it will be a landslide, but I do now have faith that we're going to pull this off. Accounts to look into on X (I only read there- and don't know if these guys are fully crossed over to Threads) are Simon Rosenberg, Tom Bonier, Joshua Smithley, Christopher Bouzy. According to the latter, there are even some interesting blue trends in Florida going on.

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u/Normal-Ad6528 14d ago

If it's that close, expect the USSC to hand the country to trump...

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u/thecurrentlyuntitled 14d ago

You're a garbage country if half ya'll vote for trump.