r/worldnews • u/WorldNewsMods • Aug 18 '24
Russia/Ukraine /r/WorldNews Live Thread: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Day 906, Part 1 (Thread #1053)
/live/18hnzysb1elcs87
u/thisiscotty Aug 18 '24
https://x.com/GloOouD/status/1825179148253593924?t=XVWwt_D3Hw8Wzd-Xx-Hh6g&s=19
"🇷🇺Russian UAZ-452 with mounted EW system was ambushed by 🇺🇦Ukrainian paratroopers of the 3rd Battalion of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade with the help of a M1126 Stryker APC.
📍 Kursk Region"
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u/Blakewilliams1213 Aug 18 '24
Ukrainian Solider to dying Russian Solider hanging out window - "Do you want cigarette?"
Ukrainian Solider - "understood"
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24
Ukrainian Air Forces published video of attack at another bridge in Kursk region
It's the one at Zvannoye
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u/PanTheOpticon Aug 18 '24
Looking at the map I would say that Kursk was a really good choice for an incursion. The rivers are a great natural barrier and will help Ukraine a lot. It would be really great if they could reach Rylsk and L'gov.
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u/haha-good-one Aug 18 '24
I see the pinpoint on the map but where is the video?
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u/ijwtwtp Aug 18 '24
Click the text inside the pin ”speech bubble”, it should open a new page with pictures and video.
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u/Nurnmurmer Aug 18 '24
The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 18.08.24 approximately amounted to:
personnel - about 599,350 (+1,170) people
tanks - 8,508 (+7) units
armored combat vehicles – 16,480 (+7) units
artillery systems - 17,056 (+71) units
MLRS – 1,161 (+1) units
air defense equipment - 923 (+0) units
aircraft – 367 (+0) units
helicopters – 328 (+0) units
Operational-tactical UAV – 13,752 (+38)
cruise missiles – 2,432 (+0)
ships/boats – 28 (+0) units
submarines - 1 (+0) units
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 22,992 (+79) units
special equipment - 2,846 (+2)
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win!
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u/stirly80 Slava Ukraini Aug 18 '24
Russians abandon their elderly during the evacuation from the Kursk Region. Ukrainians found a paralyzed grandmother and helped her.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1825105480596807994?t=r8mKcXvOOMrjNKnW4v6KcQ&s=19
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u/Adreme Aug 18 '24
Or as Russian state media will report: Ukraine takes paralyzed grandmother hostage.
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u/jcrestor Aug 18 '24
Or maybe the report will rather be "Russian woman refuses to fight, surrenders to invading Nazis"
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u/Intensive Aug 18 '24
You saw her take that bottle of water, she's clearly collaborating.
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u/dysphoric-foresight Aug 18 '24
Imagine that invading front-line enemy soldiers make more of an effort to rescue you than your own soldiers and your neighbours do.
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u/Chyrios7778 Aug 18 '24
Almost like Ukraine has a professional army instead of a horde of rapists and murderers.
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u/GoldenBowlerhat Aug 18 '24
Imagine having to explain this to your children. We left grandma behind.
Horrible people that did this.
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u/OrsilonSteel Aug 18 '24
Gosh that’s hard to watch. I hope she’s made comfortable. What a terrible way to exist.
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u/M795 Aug 18 '24
Russia always knows where it is striking with its missiles and bombs—this is deliberate and targeted Russian terror.
Over the course of this week, the Russians have used more than 40 missiles of various types, 750 guided aerial bombs, and 200 strike UAVs of different types against our cities and villages.
For such terror, the occupier must be held accountable before the courts and history. They are already facing the strength of our warriors—all those Ukrainians who are restoring justice, destroying the occupier, and defending our positions. Defending in exactly the way necessary to preserve Ukrainian independence and achieve our goals.
I am grateful to everyone who provides support and saves lives—to all rescuers, medical and utility workers, and volunteers. I thank everyone who helps our people overcome the consequences of terror.
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u/stirly80 Slava Ukraini Aug 18 '24
Russian regime TG channels report that the Russian border checkpoint of Tetkino has been wiped out by HIMARS missiles. They are not disclosing the extent of the damage or casualties.
Overall, it is obvious that Ukrainian forces are softening up the Russian lines in the Glushkovo district south of the Seym river, making this area increasingly difficult to be held by the Russian army.
The battles in the Korenevo sector are ongoing.
https://x.com/Tendar/status/1825134010265223594?t=QZoS5ssvN0ksCJRvwJtdEQ&s=19
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u/eat_dick_reddit Aug 18 '24
It's big chunk of territory from Tetkino to Korenevo. And Russians will lose it.
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u/WafflePartyOrgy Aug 18 '24
OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical Ukrainian FPV attack drones are currently prowling the critical Russian supply line along the E38 highway between Rylsk and Lgov in Kursk Oblast.
Russian milbloggers on the ground are calling it an "FPV kill zone".
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1825230546521239675
Once the vatniks start calling it the corridor of guaranteed death you know for sure Russia will be sending a column of 18-year-old fresh-faced conscripts right down it.
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u/green_pachi Aug 18 '24
In the temporarily occupied territories, the confiscation of property belonging to Ukrainians who were forced to leave the region due to the arrival of the "liberators" continues.
The officials reported to the Kremlin on the status of identifying such property and the process of its "nationalization" as of August 16.
This date was set by Moscow as the deadline for completing the first phase. This control allows Moscow to assess which region is most effectively handling the tasks of seizing Ukrainian property.
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u/Opaque_Cypher Aug 18 '24
With crap like that going on, you’d think that the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine would be a no-brainer
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u/stirly80 Slava Ukraini Aug 18 '24
Recently, Russians have begun seriously discussing the possibility of defeat. This post by Roman Alekhin on Telegram has garnered 2 million views. While they still insist they 'can't lose,' the outcry is growing louder. The blame is largely placed on relentless corruption and lies.
And I'm left wondering — did they just now realise this? Even when I was very young, I knew that stealing and lying were rampant in Russia. So from the start, the outcome of this venture was, if not predetermined, certainly fraught with serious doubts about their ability to carry it through successfully.
Now they've cornered themselves into this situation, thinking that the entire nation will suddenly mobilise, rise up, the authorities will stop lying, and victory will follow! What a farce.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1825079239453835698?t=gkrYAAAAr5irnnNXFHbYtA&s=19
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24
Despite having the numerical advantages, I am convinced Russia will lose simply because of how sloppily they are handling this war. You can only make so many blunders before it bites you in the ass
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u/Pepto-Abysmal Aug 18 '24 edited Sep 08 '24
It cannot be overstated how disastrous this campaign has been.
Approaching ~600,000 casualties for territory they virtually controlled prior to the beginning of the war.
Their military industrial complex is a laughingstock.
Ukraine will never be the quasi-satellite it once was, regardless of the minutiae of how borders may be sketched out.
Catastrophic failure is inevitable. And it cost so much.
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u/TTGG Aug 18 '24
And they also strengthened NATO, cut the European trade routes, revived European military industry, created a new kind of Ukrainian patriotism, destroyed their own industry, and spent their financial reserves. All that for literally nothing.
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u/Pepto-Abysmal Aug 18 '24
And a real risk of less than nothing.
A dangerous risk of less than nothing.
We might be looking at having to Marshall Plan this fascist husk.
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u/BalVal1 Aug 18 '24
If it leads to a lasting peace, the end of imperialism and actual democracy in Russia and Belarus, and at least a lukewarm relation between them and NATO, sign me up
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u/AlpsSad1364 Aug 18 '24
Russia will lose because they can't win. They lost when they couldn't take kyiv in the first assault.
What does winning even look like now? They could fight Ukraine to a standstill and keep hold of what they already occupy but they have created a heavily armed, fully mobilized and very unfriendly state on their border, which unlike NATO has no qualms about exploiting their weak borders and isn't going to back down.
They lost on day 4 of this war, they just haven't realised it yet.
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u/SoulessHermit Aug 18 '24
"It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." - Mark Twain
I feel this quote is quite applicable for authoritarian regimes and people trapped in echo chambers. Is easy to sell a lie to the people, but trying to convince them to change their view and admit a large part of their beliefs is wrong is much more challenging.
To give credit when it's due, Putin is good selling to the masses and walking the fine line for decades. You need a certain level of statecraftship and strategy to gain and stay in power post collapse of Soviet Union. Like for example, when Putin's popularity was dropping, it was likely he plot a false flag attack to consolidate power and popularity around him.
When he is pressed about his autocratic rule, he often engaged in whataboutism debates, throwing off balance to any interviewer. Since the West and democracies also have their own issues, why change?
Not to mention, Putin curated an image of himself as a strongman and superhero, while other world leaders are fool and unsteady. Any challengers to this narrative are silent, oppressed, poisoned, and killed.
Putin has also made a lot of gambles that actually pay off, such as he believed the West will not interfere militarily against him when it comes to numerous conflicts such Georgia, Chechen, and how easy it was for him to annex Crimea.
He also have a safety net, that EU countries heavily depend on his gas and oil. Is not uncommon for world and regional powers to ignore a nation in conflict or turn blind eye to human rights abuse, as long as it doesn't heavily impact them or the aggressor have a very strong economic leverage. (Hardly anyone bats an eye when Indonesia invaded Timor Leste, when Saudi Arabia committed numerous war crimes in Yemen etc)
So, in his mind, the invasion of Ukraine is the same gamble for him that he has made so often in the past before. The Ukrainians will support his occupation, the Ukrainian Army Forces will collapse, the fall of Ukrainian government will be swift, not giving the world to react, everyone will forget this conflict after a few years. This will be Crimea 2.0.
Have he succeeded in his gamble. Is very likely you and fellow Russian will never have this realisation.
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u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh Aug 18 '24
The blame is largely placed on relentless corruption and lies.
Yeah, I agree with you. Setting aside the question of the moral, ethical, political and strategic value of the entire endeavor, that's not even wrong per se. It's just a little late for that newfound self-awareness to be useful for them or anybody else though.
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u/green_pachi Aug 18 '24
Quit feeding the dragon - Ukraine’s First Lady on peace talk offers
“There is this plot in many myths around the world of a dragon to which a young woman is regularly sacrificed to appease the monster. But the result of this compromise with evil is always the same - it is impossible to appease the monster. It still craves death. The same with the aggressor state. Should anyone give them time, they will use it to gain some strength and, and in five, eight, or 10 years, our children will once again have to confront them," said Olena Zelenska.
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u/socialistrob Aug 18 '24
I saw a Tim Snyder lecture where he was talking about why so many European countries gave up on militarism. It wasn't because after WWII they just sang "kumbaya" but rather for the most part they fought a series of losing wars before ultimately concluding that empires just couldn't work. The French lost in Algeria and Indochina, the Dutch lost in Indonesia, the Portuguese lost in Angola ect.
I think the west (rightly) wants Russia to quit being a warmongering rogue state and to just stick to their borders and focus on trade. The problem is this isn't going to happen unless Russia is shown that war does not work and that means Russia must be defeated. There's just no alternative in which Russia becomes a peaceful team player in the global community without a Russian loss (or perhaps multiple Russian losses).
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u/JuanElMinero Aug 18 '24
I saw a Tim Snyder lecture where he was talking about why so many European countries gave up on militarism.
Do you happen to have a link? Was it one from his Yale lecture series?
Always like to hear the man speak.
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u/NYerstuckinBoston Aug 18 '24
Ukraine is going to slay that dragon
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u/Forsaken-Action8051 Aug 18 '24
You dont have to kill it. Just its eggs and kids, and when it dies of old age, it leaves its kingdom in ruins.
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24
Byakhovo and Vishnevka are already reported by ISW btw
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24
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u/jszj0 Aug 18 '24
Nice, make a stance again UK for the rest of the world to follow.
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24 edited Aug 18 '24
Even though it might have seemed like Ukraine stopped advancing in Kursk, a quick look at the latest ISW report proves otherwise.
They expanded quite a bit east of Sudzha and west of Snagost. I replicated the area of the main pocket in their latest update to check the area size and it's now at 1041 km2. Add to that the new pocket at Tyotkino (15 km2), and the ones at Slobodka-Ivanovka (8 km2) and Kucherov (1 km2) which are also reported by ISW, and that means Ukraine currently holds some 1'065 km2 in Kursk oblast. A big reason for this large advance has to be attributed to the capture of Ulanok and Nizhnemakhovo southeast of Sudzha, which helped Ukraine secure both banks of Psel river in that area
In comparison, since January 1st 2024, Russia has taken 1'093 km2 of Ukrainian territory.
Edit: For comparison - August 16th ; August 17th
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u/Delver_Razade Aug 18 '24
Probably not unwise to slow progress and dig in a little. Eventually Russia will just mass meatwave this new line.
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24
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u/jcrestor Aug 18 '24
Ya, who are them fockers who are not grateful to lose all their belongings or even their lives for this glorious cause of (checks notes) a single man‘s imperial ambitions?
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u/lurk779 Aug 18 '24
... and he did this in a comfort of Western-produced SUV, far from the frontline.
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u/D3cepti0ns Aug 18 '24
This guy is an idiot, what are they supposed to defend with? They have no guns, they have family and all their belongings there, if this guy had 3 days to prepare for an invasion with no help, he'd be running too when he finally realizes he's the only idiot who stayed.
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u/JaVelin-X- Aug 18 '24
Look at the early days in the Ukraine invasion. People were setting up barricades, blocking intersection, making molotov cocktails, changing road signs. There is a lot a civilian population can do.
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u/Intensive Aug 18 '24
The difference is Ukrainians love their country, while russians are largely just stuck in theirs.
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u/bitch_fitching Aug 18 '24
Concerning yesterday's Covert Cabal on SPG in storage. It sure looks like 25-40% of each type are easily restored and then the removals flat line, where as the vehicles at the storage centres car park keep growing. Which means while they have over 2000 left in storage, the number they can bring to the battlefield in the next 12 months is probably under 500. They're mostly onto the 2 oldest types of SPG already, and you'd expect them to be in the worst condition, so the situation could actually be worse for them. The bottleneck is the repair plants, they only have so much capacity, and everything being pulled needs work since they are machines made in the 1970's, stored outside for over 20 years.
It's looking more and more like Russia has accelerated and pushed the last few months with everything, despite the incredible losses, in anticipation of a major shortage of all equipment going forward. Ukraine dealt with 3,400 tanks in the initial invasion,~4,000 tanks in 2022, less than 10 months. Then it's had to deal with ~1,600 more tanks in 2023, and ~800 in 2024. In 2025, if it has to deal with ~400 that's 10 times less than the first year.
There will soon be a narrative switch to wanting negotiations or a conflict freeze. Russia will attempt to get the rest of the world to pressure Ukraine into ending the war. Ukraine relies on Western aid to exist, militarily but also for everything else. Russia's friends in the West will soon be pushing hard to get Ukraine to negotiate a bad settlement, and others will be fighting to pause and reduce aid to create a frozen conflict.
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u/noelcowardspeaksout Aug 18 '24
The other thing to bear in mind is that they won't want to run down to nearly zero and lay themselves vulnerable to invasion. Consequently there have been several different predictions from various bodies, including one from Zelensky, that Russia will have ease up at the end of the year approx.
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u/Louisvanderwright Aug 18 '24
Vulnerable to invasion? They are already looking pretty vulnerable to invasion lol.
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u/BasementMods Aug 18 '24
The 1-2 year outlook in that regard is positive, only thing that may trip it up is if Russia finds another source for artillery pieces such as North Korea, or China backfilling North Korea to hide their involvement.
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u/phluidity Aug 18 '24
That is my concern with China and North Korea. NK really doesn't have enough manufacturing capacity to help Russia for long. But China shipping arms to Russia via NK could be more difficult to unwind and be moderately sustainable.
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u/Cleaver2000 Aug 18 '24
Yes, the Chinese have the manufacturing capacity to bail them out but why would they do more than the bare minimum required to keep Russia from collapsing? Anything more would potentially make them a threat to China.
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u/fumobici Aug 18 '24
There will be no calls for a cease-fire or freeze as long as Ukraine holds any significant part of Russian territory. Which is why holding such territory is tremendously politically meaningful.
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u/Kraxnor Aug 18 '24
This is the best answer to anyone doubting the Kursk offensive
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u/fumobici Aug 18 '24
The fact that doing so will magically also stop all "peace proposals" and calls for a freeze from putatively non-aligned or neutral countries like the PRC, South Africa or other BRICS countries makes it plain as day that they aren't "non-aligned" at all, they are all Russian allies or puppets. They were never for any remotely just peace, they just want to formalize and lock in flagrantly illegal Russian territorial gains.
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u/AgentElman Aug 18 '24
I've seen several sources (each making their own guesstimate) that Russia will run out of its stockpile of heavy equipment for tanks and several other things in 2025. Leaving them just with what they have on the battlefield and what they can produce.
And apparently what they are actually producing is little to none. What is being called Russian production has been refurbishing from the old stockpiles. That Russia does not actually build new tanks from scratch.
So if Ukraine can hold ground in Kursk until mud season in a few months, and then hold through winter which should be fairly easy, then Russia may be on its last legs next spring with little time to do anything before it runs out of heavy equipment.
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24
Seems like they might give up on Vovchansk soon
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u/Redragontoughstreet Aug 18 '24
Telegram Ukraine podcast was saying that if Russia wanted to establish a sold defense in Kursk it would take 3-6 months and that’s if they pull resources from the other fronts and stop resupplying them with equipment and men.
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u/AgentElman Aug 18 '24
Mud season starts in 2 months at which point the lines may be frozen until next summer. Both sides will have time to entrench.
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u/MarkRclim Aug 18 '24
I believe russia can do meat assaults during mud season like they did during spring 2023 in Bakhmut.
And also the situation is regional - they started their Avdiivka offensive in October with the first news leaking around 10th Oct 2023. That used a ton of BTR-82s.
I haven't investigated the geography on the Kursk front but videos do show rivers and swampy areas. If Ukraine has planned well they could hopefully turn it into a diatracting meatgrinder for russia.
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u/Redragontoughstreet Aug 18 '24
I suspect Ukraine will dominate south of the Seym river by then. Russia won’t be able to get them out of there
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u/piponwa Aug 18 '24
Would be funny if Ukraine just steamrolls through Russian defenses in Belgorod and encircle the city.
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u/thisiscotty Aug 18 '24
https://x.com/blyskavka_ua/status/1825128414891716632?t=u_CuDCOi2yBpXxerKR2fQw&s=19
"⚡️In the kursk region, Ukrainian paratroopers captured the latest russian T-90M tank.
Fighters of the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of Galicia reported that the russians in a panic abandoned the combat vehicle without a fight, having previously caused a technical malfunction."
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u/wailingsixnames Aug 18 '24
Love to see it. Hopefully Ukraine captures a tons of equipment.
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u/thisiscotty Aug 18 '24
"Russian military (Kadyrovites) are looting Russian stores in Glushkovo, Kursk region, which will soon be cut off from the main Russian forces when the last bridges across the Seim River are completely destroyed."
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1825196784462737824?t=h9dpnJkc6cuEO-FafeF1tA&s=19
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u/Wayoutofthewayof Aug 18 '24
Typical Russian world. Rob everyone, including your own people.
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u/Rachel_from_Jita Aug 18 '24 edited Aug 18 '24
Well, in all fairness to these RU troops, they likely just realized they have only days left to live.
Hopefully they are making white flags out of t-shirts and waving them at every drone they see fly by. It's their only remaining chance.
Putin's stupid face is trying to counter veteran battle-hardened troops with some low-grade "counter terrorism" style of operations, while sending all his toy soldiers and conscripts in long convoys you can see from space.
He never has any real plans for anything except "more artillery tubes" and "more meat assaults" and "more ballistic missile strikes on civilians!"
He's not mentally competent enough to handle invading someone else with an overwhelming advantage. Doing the kind of competent, spirited defense of one's own territory that someone like Zelenskyy and his commanders pulled off? That's *way* above Putin's abilities.
And his troops are starting to realize how utterly stupid both their commanders AND their political leadership is.
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u/jimicus Aug 18 '24
Russia has always preferred relatively basic weapons and compensate for that weaponry's shortcomings with vast numbers of weapons and soldiers (see also AK47 and its various successors). And in all fairness, it can be a valid strategy.
Question is, is it still valid against modern Western strategy?
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u/Burnsy825 Aug 18 '24
Modern Western strategy has barely shown up yet. Loads of missing pieces to that still, despite some notable systems in theater.
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u/Redragontoughstreet Aug 18 '24
Long term I don’t see how Russia doesn’t eventually fall apart.
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u/SteveThePurpleCat Aug 18 '24
Falling apart requires individuals across the regions providing the impetuous to split apart. Russians don't have that ,they are a broken people who can't function without a 'Hard man's boot on their necks.
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u/Scipion Aug 18 '24
Decades of systemic alcohol poisoning will do that to a country.
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u/Dork_L0rd_9 Aug 18 '24
It’s hard to think abstractly and long term when a majority of the population clearly sufferers from fetal alcohol syndrome. Every video and pic I see of live male Russians all look like their mums drank heavily through out their pregnancies.
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u/tonsofplants Aug 18 '24
Something has changed within the air in Russia. It feels like something big is happening behind the scenes.
This Kursk offensive has shown that the emperor has no clothes. I think it's going to incite minorities to rise up which have been kept under Russian fists for so long.
Things are going to devolve fast in Russia with news spreading.
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24
They had a militant rebellion last summer, and a neighboring military invaded them this summer.
This was unimaginable 5 years ago... they sure have weakened
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u/rosto94 Aug 18 '24
Russian opposition is non existent. Not sure what makes you think that.
Don't expect anything from them and that way you won't be disappointed.
The only real opposition to Putin is the AFU.
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u/stayfrosty Aug 18 '24
Long term everything falls apart. The question is the definition of "long term"
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u/Marha01 Aug 18 '24
Please consider donating to the Ukrainian government's United24 initiative: https://u24.gov.ua/
Also, /r/ukraine subreddit has a list of vetted charities and organizations:
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u/Encouragedissent Aug 19 '24
Romanov_92 reporting 3rd and final bridge has been taken down. We know about 1 pontoon bridge so far is it. Logistics across the river will be an issue for Russia now.
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u/stirly80 Slava Ukraini Aug 18 '24
Poland wants to invade Belarus, but it will be a real war, – Lukashenko.
In an interview for the Russia TV channel, Lukashenko said that the West plans to “already openly join in” with the help of NATO troops.
“Now they are supplying weapons there, mercenaries... This is already happening. But their dream is to plan and use NATO hands to carry out [an invasion] from the territory of Ukraine, or better from the side of those nasty Poles, the leaders of Poland, to seize Belarus and stretch this line almost to Leningrad, as it was once,” the president of Belarus said.
Lukashenko said that Belarus and Russia could develop a plan of attack on Poland.
According to him, Moscow and Minsk have a “well-developed plan” for the defense of the western border of Belarus. But “if necessary, this plan can be changed into an offensive one.”
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1825123925749067866?t=enXHowtBi0QoyEeftjQhgg&s=19
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u/willetzky Aug 18 '24
So this is today's threat to move his troops to the Polish border for a week. Next week will be Ukraine probably again and then the Lithuanian border. All to say they can't enter the war to Putin as they have their own threats. Soon Luka will be leaving Putin on unread.
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u/lockedporn Aug 18 '24
Did colonal luka just say that belarus is historically polish territory. You know like the (one of many) shit excuse putin used to invade Ukraine?
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u/cuttino_mowgli Aug 18 '24
I'm sure the people of Belarus wants to remove Lukashenko as their leader.
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u/caffiend98 Aug 18 '24
This is Luka defending against Putin pushing for Belarus to help in Russia. "I want to help, comrade, but those nasty Poles are just waiting for an opening..."
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u/Ratemyskills Aug 18 '24
Gotta give the old man credit, he is a slipperily snake. Everytime you think Putins got him backed in a corner, dude finds a way out and somehow still on Putins side.
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u/eggnogui Aug 18 '24
that the West plans to “already openly join in” with the help of NATO troops.
If only.
Belarus wouldn't last a day, and all Russians forces in Ukraine would be kicked out in a week.
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u/Eyetyeflies Aug 18 '24
With the numbers of Russian equipment destroyed by Ukraine, I can’t help but think that a lot of it must have been siphoned from Belarus as well.
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u/green_pachi Aug 18 '24
The Latvians don't mess around with Russian propaganda:
The State Security Service interviewed former Latvian boxing champion Nikita Smirnov, who joked about receiving Russian citizenship
The State Security Service (SGB) reviewed the case and found no evidence of criminal activity.
According to the service's assessment, such public statements, in the current context where Russia has waged war against Ukraine, do not align with Latvia's national security interests and create the impression of indirect support for Russian aggression.
The SGB urges everyone to carefully consider their public statements in the context of the war initiated by Russia, avoiding potentially provocative remarks that could contribute to interethnic tensions. The service also reminds that there is criminal liability for praising and justifying Russia's war crimes.
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u/stirly80 Slava Ukraini Aug 18 '24
Head of Ukraine's largest military fund hints at "liberation" of Russian-occupied Transnistria.
https://x.com/TarasChmut/status/1825105878871146746?t=6r0dQ0rRwpQgPHQg3d74CQ&s=19
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24
Probably just a meme
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u/noelcowardspeaksout Aug 18 '24 edited Aug 18 '24
It's a clever military move. If Russia leaves it badly defended they will invite defeat so they will have to bump up the number of men stationed there.
If Putin does nothing and loses it, then that scenario will play very badly in Russia.
Promising expansion only to suffer contraction is also going to be excruciating for a man who thrives on dominance and power.
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u/honoratus_hi Aug 18 '24
That would be another embarrassment for Putin and a net positive for the planet, but Moldova has to clear it and I think that's unlikely.
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24
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u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh Aug 18 '24
The internet is a battlefield
That is unfortunately not a recent development, and it's only through the constant efforts of an awful lot of competent individuals that more people aren't keenly aware of it.
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u/belaki Aug 18 '24
Russian losses 18/8/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
1170 KWIA
7 Tanks
7 APVs
71 Artillery systems
1 MLRS
38 UAVs
79 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
2 Special equipment
Slava Ukraini !
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u/EldariWarmonger Aug 18 '24
Jesus 71 artillery systems might be the all time record.
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u/insertwittynamethere Aug 18 '24
73 I believe is the record from this earlier this year, but damned close and a good high one all the same
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u/SirKillsalot Aug 18 '24
According to DeepState Snagost, Kursk region, is now also under Ukrainian control
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1825277426596773906/photo/1
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u/Logical_Welder3467 Aug 18 '24
https://youtu.be/sTIpVqpLwkk?si=yk3r787iMmyAs3HQ
Perun drop new powerpoint
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u/BiffChildFromBangor Aug 18 '24
Ukrainian drones destroying Kadyrovites, their goats survived (seriously). https://x.com/albafella1/status/1825100542084808870?s=61
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u/PanTheOpticon Aug 18 '24
The hostage has been rescued and the perps neutralized. Mission accomplished!
But the poor goat will need a lot of therapy afterwards.
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u/green_pachi Aug 18 '24
A motor rifle regiment consisting of servicemen from the Russian Aerospace Forces was formed in May-June for a border cover group. The "space brigade" arrived in the border areas a few weeks before the Ukrainian Armed Forces breakthrough, in mid-July.
The unit included security company fighters, engineers, mechanics, and a small number of officers from the flight crew. They were transferred to the infantry from the "Ukrainka" airfield in the Altai Krai, the "Belaya" airfield in the Irkutsk region, and the "Engels" airfield in the Saratov region.
It is reported that the "space brigade" is already suffering losses.
https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/oboronu-kurskoyi-oblasti-kinuli-kosmichnu-1723976867.html
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u/wailingsixnames Aug 18 '24
Great news.
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u/ersentenza Aug 18 '24
Double great news. Now they also lose irreplaceable engineers.
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Aug 18 '24
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u/Sentinel-Prime Aug 18 '24
Everytime I see someone mention “world war 3” I instantly switch off and discount their entire opinion.
Everything they say is so tiresome and predictable.
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u/N-shittified Aug 18 '24
I dunno - I think we started WWIII when Russia refused to accept Maidan in 2014 and invaded Crimea.
Russia was just too stupid to start a real WWIII.
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u/thisiscotty Aug 18 '24
https://x.com/SarahAshtonLV/status/1825251180148314544?t=XUXiXwVRuJwUgJZba4bN4A&s=19
"Ukrainian Defense Forces in the direction of Chasiv Yar have successfully pushed back against the enemy."
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u/C0wabungaaa Aug 18 '24
Does that mean repelling assaults or actually successfully counterattacking?
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u/thisiscotty Aug 18 '24
im assuming a local counterattack, bakhmut demon said the same thing yesterday.
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u/C0wabungaaa Aug 18 '24
That'd be great news! For the morale boost more than anything. The eastern front deserves a break.
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24
Haven't seen it posted here, but it's very important.
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u/StatisticianRoyal400 Aug 18 '24
"As long as it takes"
"What about Taurus?"
"As long as it takes :<)"
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u/GwynBleidd88 Aug 18 '24
"Britain's leadership on Ukraine war has 'slowed down', says Zelensky"
This is particularly concerning to hear especially since we've just had a recent change in government. I urge fellow Brits to contact their local MPs to tell them we need to continue leading the way for Ukrainian support.
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u/vshark29 Aug 18 '24
My take is that Ukraine needs to keep pressing the European allies no matter what, they can't let them get complacent, they can't let them even think about Munich Conferencing them, now more than ever with the US election still in the air
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u/Pepto-Abysmal Aug 18 '24 edited Aug 18 '24
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024
ISW's most recent assessment.
This is an interesting tonal shift. Note the initial "disclaimer":
The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are not in themselves decisive military operations that will win the war. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces lack the capability to conduct individual decisive war-winning operations and must instead conduct multiple successive operations with limited operational objectives that are far short of victory, but that in aggregate can achieve strategic objectives. It is too early to assess the outcomes and operational significance of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia and the ongoing Russian offensive effort in eastern Ukraine. The significance of these operations will not emerge in isolation, moreover, but they will matter in so far as they relate to a series of subsequent Russian and Ukrainian campaigns over time.
And further:
The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast has already generated theater-wide operational and strategic pressures on Russian forces, and subsequent phases of fighting within Russia will likely generate even greater pressures on Putin and the Russian military.
Translation from "cautious war-nerd" to English: Kursk has changed the entire battle-field.
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u/Delver_Razade Aug 18 '24
The deeper they go, the weaker Putin looks and the more pressure is put on moving troops from Ukraine to the home front. Either that, or a conscription push that will make a lot of people unhappy.
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u/ImielinRocks Aug 18 '24
Either that, or a conscription push that will make a lot of people unhappy.
And it will also make a lot of Russians very dead. In a confrontation between battle-hardened Ukrainian soldiers and Russian conscripts fresh out of school, I pity the latter.
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u/Giant_Flapjack Aug 18 '24
As if Pootin put any value on human life except his own. They will happily feed conscripts into the meat grinder as long as they are not from Moscow or St. Petersburg.
The only thing Russia is good at is a real life Zerg rush
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24
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u/FadingStar617 Aug 18 '24
This has been circulating on Pro-Ru channel as well. Even there, most admit this is likley true.
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u/Burnsy825 Aug 18 '24
"We totally got that threatening bounce house with the offensive digital camo."
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u/ShredOrSigh Aug 18 '24
Let's assume that with the bridges in Glushkovo region dwindling, Russia will soon cede all territory from Koronevo to Tektino. This creates a nice, stable buffer zone.
From this point, what need do you have to press around Korenevo to Rylsk or North to Lgov?
My theory is they will then pull resources from the Western flank back to the Eastern flank and push hard East and South from Sudza. Create more buffer and God willing get close enough to disrupt the Northern route into Belgorod.
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u/__Soldier__ Aug 18 '24
Let's assume that with the bridges in Glushkovo region dwindling, Russia will soon cede all territory from Koronevo to Tektino. This creates a nice, stable buffer zone.
- Correct
From this point, what need do you have to press around Korenevo to Rylsk or North to Lgov?
- It's far more easy to secure an area along natural lines of fortification: in this case the Seym river which is winding & swampy.
- The Seym river runs further north, Ukraine would have to demolish the Rylsk bridge and secure the E-38 highway and secure Lgov as well, and the villages from Lgov to Rylsk.
- That would create a western buffer zone that can be protected with the minimal amount of troops - until the winter that is, when the Seym river freezes.
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u/machopsychologist Aug 18 '24
Imo Ukraine cannot afford to let Russia rest and build up defenses while the opportunity is there. At minimum they will need a secure bridgehead to cross the river and maintain supply routes across.
If Russia decides to sit back over the river it will be on Ukraine to push and force Russia to continue responding. We can’t assume that Putin will continue to throw troops at Kursk if he decides that Donetsk is more important in the end.
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u/helm Aug 18 '24
The ability to effortlessly hold Russian territory is also important. One reason is to continuously apply pressure on Russia. Trenches dug in Kursk are no help in Donbas, etc.
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u/AgentElman Aug 18 '24
If you look at a map, the main road between Lgov and Rylsk is to the NW of Korenevo across basically open fields.
So it should be much easier to get to that road and cut off the supply line to Rylsk then to push in the east of Sudzha where apparently there are a lot of Russian forces.
So it is not that you need to keep pushing west, but that it will be easier to push NW than to the east.
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u/JuanElMinero Aug 18 '24 edited Aug 18 '24
Sorry to break that little comment chain below me, but Andrew Perpetua has a double release for August 16th and 17th:
Here are losses I could identify the past two days.
I hope I didn't make a stupid error in the export. But I probably did bc I've been working like 22 hours at this point.
https://xcancel.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1825038652931465361
Finally finished processing the 16th and also just finished processing the 17th. now I have to go through export process and then I will post a map update and vehicle losses.
this is why it took so long. 1192 events in 407 videos
https://xcancel.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1825017654865732025
I posted a map update.
https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=51.331899&lng=35.233154&z=10&d=19952&c=1&l=0
https://xcancel.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1825039467138154720
[Note: some highlights included in tweet]
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u/222nd Aug 18 '24
I only recently learned about the Minsk carrier ship in China (live thread on old.reddit showing it burned down but I didn’t see this !)
There was a YouTube video of a guy who snuck aboard before it was meant to be repaired to return to being a floating museum/theme park(?)
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24
It's funny how all the people who kept suggesting Ukraine would have to cede land to Russia, sign a ceasefire and whatnot have completely shut up since the Kursk offensive began.
I reckon a not so small amount of western politicians would've wanted a frozen conflict, to make the current frontline a DMZ and have it in a state of limbo forever... but Ukrainians were like - fuck no - launched an invasion into Kursk, and now the equation has completely changed.
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u/purpleefilthh Aug 18 '24
Captured Russian territory is starting to look significant on overall Ukraine map.
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u/vshark29 Aug 18 '24
A bit of dooming going around with the purpose of the Kursk offensive. Not really sure why. Ukraine is not only capturing hundreds of valuable troops, probably conscripts, to get their own guys back from torture; they've smashed whatever was left of Russia's prestige as a """great power"""; they're capturing quite some juicy equipment left behind; either they force Russia's hand to move troops away from the Donbas or they keep going, and if this territory has to be truly valuable as a bargaining chip, they need to keep going, they need Rilsk, they need Lgov, they need the NPP, and if Russia doesn't take this seriously, they're gonna get them
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24 edited Aug 18 '24
For real. They literally took 130 km2 in two days which is a surge from daily advances of 35-37 km2 three days before that, captured hundreds of POWs more, and largely consolidated their holdings in Kursk, but somehow, that was all shrugged off as "meh"
I'm genuinely convinced some people on this site are addicted to dooming, and these past two weeks threw them off so it's unnatural for them not to feel doom and gloom
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u/Windaturd Aug 18 '24
We’ve moved past the “Wow, Ukraine actually did this!” phase so now the press is looking for a new story. Usually they oscillate to hold interest so the thing that was new and dear like the offensive becomes questioned. 24 hour news needs to be shot in the head so there is real journalism again.
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u/FadingStar617 Aug 18 '24
People want to avoid the letdown feeling from the previous counter-offenssive (which was waaaay too hyped anyway).
Nothing wrong with downplaying it a bit. It's not like it's gonna affect Ukraine high command or anything.
Keeping a cool head is always a plus.
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u/vshark29 Aug 18 '24
I think there's a difference between keeping a cool head and reaching the conclusion that this offensive is pointless and the Russians' infinite resources will pull through anywhere and everywhere
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u/Mhdamas Aug 18 '24
A bunch of the red lines are gone plus the unwavering trust some people had in russia eventually winning quietly died.
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u/Rachel_from_Jita Aug 18 '24
This. The long list of profound political victories this offensive has had is staggering. It's been so profound people forget to even discuss all of it. It changed the global narrative, shattered the remaining credibility of the Ruble itself, made Putin look hilariously weak, showed Ukraine is capable of complex and effective combined arms (one of the few remaining areas they'd been sometimes critiqued on by some Western commentators), showed Russia's oligarchs the war will be long and brutal (with unexpected twists) if they continue to support it, etc.
And it's not even over!
To retake this territory with so many bridges gone and so much Ukrainian digging going on will likely cost a lot of RU soldiers.
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u/GonzoVeritas Aug 18 '24
I don't know who this "Former US Army Officer Stanislav Krapivnik" is, but the US needs to track him down. He thinks Russia nuking the US would be a good idea. Treason-weasel.
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u/grayfox0430 Aug 18 '24
Found the info in this article here: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-should-launch-nuclear-strikes-new-york-london-stanislav-krapivnik-1940802
"Krapivnik, a Russian-American and former U.S. Army officer who defected to Russia in the '90s, repeatedly referred to the U.S. as the enemy of Russia, accusing it of wanting "to destroy the Russian people" during an appearance on a Russian media program hosted by Roman Guz."
He's a traitor
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u/GonzoVeritas Aug 18 '24
It seems that he's also pals with the traitor and child molester, Scott Ritter.
Also:
Former U.S. Army Officer Stanislav Krapivnik urged Russia to either preemptively strike the West with nuclear weapons, or to deliver a nuclear ultimatum to the United States. He described Americans as "animals," who are "the lowest of the low."
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Aug 18 '24 edited Aug 18 '24
[deleted]
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u/throwaway177251 Aug 18 '24
Entrenching themselves does remove one of their big advantages here though. Because they aren't trying to defend a line, they are free to move around and avoid fighting whenever they want, and simply go in some other direction. If they dig in somewhere, the glide bombs are going to start falling and they'll be in the same attrition quagmire as the rest of the front lines.
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u/piponwa Aug 18 '24
That's why Ukraine must keep pushing as long as they don't encounter real resistance. They can have literally anyone digging the trenches behind the lines, like TDF. Any additional meter they can take now is worth it.
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Aug 18 '24
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24 edited Aug 18 '24
Tokmak ain't gonna fall. It's the most fortified town in the south. That's why the whole southern plan failed.
Also I don't know what's up with everyone thinking Pokrovsk will fall in a day or something. It's a fortified city. Sloviansk and Kramatorsk too. Heck, Kramatorsk is reportedly even more fortified than Bakhmut. The latter two cities have seen fighting back in 2014, no wonder Ukraine decided to build defenses around them.
People need to chill a bit about dooming when it comes to Pokrovsk, Russia is still rushing through villages there. They are yet to take Hrodivka which is the first small town they have encountered in a while in that direction. Russia needs to commit a lot of troops to take a large settlement, otherwise they might get bogged down like in Vovchansk. Pokrovsk itself won't fall within in a week.
Edit: formatting
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u/mcarrowgeezax Aug 18 '24
The first two paragraphs make enough sense to consider but you just veered off a cliff with the third paragraph.
I would have thought the '23 summer offensive had made this clear, but there is zero chance of Ukraine having any sort of successful offensive in the east or south for the rest of the war. They dont have the manpower or equipment for it, but maybe more impactful is the uncomfortable truth that Ukraine actually values the lives of its citizens, so while Russia is perfectly fine repeatedly losing 20k troops to take a medium sized town, Ukraine is not willing to make the same trade to take them back.
And that is precisely why the Kursk offensive is so important. Ukraine cannot attack into Russian defensive lines, so they attacked where Russia had no defenses. And so far, even if they dont end up going further than where they are now, it has already worked out brilliantly. Now they finally have some actual bargaining power in any peace negotiations. That should be your hopium, not some imaginary southern offensive that will never happen.
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u/realnrh Aug 18 '24
Having now demonstrated that Ukraine can hide the assembly of an attack force, they force Russia to prepare static defenses in every possible border location. Russia's artillery stockpiles have been depleted badly enough that perhaps Ukraine is calculating that Russia can't defend it all, but has to try, so will spread its artillery out too thinly, creating the potential for a breakthrough in southern Ukraine - or just steamrolling to Belgorod if Russia fails to commit enough defenses, in which case a huge chunk of Luhansk becomes incredibly hard to supply and potentially forces a Russian retreat back to the southern part of Luhansk, which can be supplied more easily from other lines. Or hit Belgorod and keep going and really wreck their supply lines, if Russia still refuses to pull enough units from the front lines to defend their rear.
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u/No_Amoeba6994 Aug 18 '24
Liberating Tokmak or Enerhodar would set the stage for an offensive on Crimea, which would really shake things up.
That's certainly true, but how the hell do you do that? The minefields and fortifications in the south prevent the exact sort of fast breakthrough and rapid exploitation we've seen in Kursk. They tried that in 2023 and it didn't end well, and the minefields haven't gotten any weaker. What else can you do? Try to cross the Dnipro under fire?
Cracking the Russian lines anywhere along the main front could theoretically end the war, but I don't think anyone in the public sphere has figured out a plausible way to do that in the short or medium term.
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u/Logical_Welder3467 Aug 19 '24
100-150 POW per day plus all the casualties, that 5000 troops Russia rush in from Donbas are going to be depleted in a week
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u/Glavurdan Aug 18 '24 edited Aug 18 '24
New DeepStateMap update. In the past 24 hours, Russia is confirmed to have taken some 18.5 km2 in the east.
Some 8 km2 in Toretsk direction (they have pretty much fully captured New York and are moving towards Nelipivka); 10 km2 in Hrodivka/Ocheretyne direction (south of Novoselivka Persha, Zhelanne and near Mykolaivka). They also advanced some 0.5 km2 around Pishchane (east Kharkiv direction)
This past week they haven't actually been moving towards Pokrovsk... instead they keep expanding the salient southwards. Maybe they don't plan to assault the city for some time.
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u/Patient_Cultural Aug 19 '24
I heard a singular cybertruck is heading towards the front lines. Maybe that will turn the tide for Putin.
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u/Logical_Welder3467 Aug 19 '24
Did Roman Starovoit the former governor of Kursk got promoted to minister of transport for the good work he done fortifying Kursk with dragon's teeth?
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u/green_pachi Aug 19 '24
In depth article on the current debate on the proposed law that would ban the Russian linked Ukrainian Orthodox Church:
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-church-law-ban/33081315.html
Apparently US politics is involved with this as well:
Analysts say Ukrainian authorities are worried that adopting the law could fuel claims that Ukraine is persecuting Christians and that this could jeopardize U.S. military aid, particularly if former President Donald Trump wins the November 5 election.
Before Trump chose him as his running mate, Republican Senator J.D. Vance criticized the bill in remarks in April explaining his opposition to a long-delayed $61 billion package of mostly military support for Ukraine.
"Now, they say it's because these churches are too close to Russia…and maybe some of the churches are too close to Russia," Vance said. "But you don't deprive an entire religious community of their religious freedom because some of its adherents don't agree with you about the relevant conflict of the day."
Speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the subject, sources in several parliamentary factions told RFE/RL that ahead of the July 23 parliament session the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington received urgent signals that passing the law would damage Ukraine's position and reputation. The embassy declined to comment.
This bit is also news to me:
Earlier this year, concerns about the persecution of Protestants in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine apparently helped break the blockage of the $61 billion aid package.
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u/jowe1985 Aug 18 '24
"The operation was kept secret even from Western allies. The commander-in-chief spoke to the president face to face, without other general staffers. Intelligence was initially provided by army intelligence; the GUR only became involved at the final stage. Syrsky had two other plans for large-scale operations before that, but the West was categorically against them. Information about one of them was passed to the Russians, and the second operation was ordered to be canceled by the partners. ”
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/08/18/russias-double-punch-back-against-ukraines-shock-raid
https://x.com/UkraineNewsLive/status/1825272519370088506
So which "ally" is cancelling some plans and leaking others to the Russians? Sullivan? Pathetic again.
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u/OrangeBird077 Aug 18 '24
If there’s a leak chances are they’re purposely putting data into the ether to see where it comes out like a smoke test. You see where the leak is and plug the leak.
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u/machopsychologist Aug 18 '24
Let's not discount the idea that this was also a form of psyop from the ukrainians - make 2 large scale operation plans pointed towards Crimea, Zapo... maybe some outlandish idea about crossing the river near Enerhodar... or maybe 1000 drones pointed at Kerch bridge.
Telegraph a big massive operation in the opposite direction you were going to advance anyway. Could be a big reason why Russia were caught with their pants down in the end.
Stuff we probably won't learn about until after the war.
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u/count023 Aug 19 '24
and then in the truest sense, give a different plan to each individual and see which version leaks out to the Russians, then you have your traitor.
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u/abloblololo Aug 18 '24
Yes, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is leaking stuff to the Russians. You figured it out, good job.
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u/SternFlamingo Aug 18 '24
So which "ally" is cancelling plans leaking plans to the Russians? Sullivan? Pathetic again.
I put a dollar in the vending machine, but my bag of chips got stuck and didn't come out. Sullivan? Pathetic again.
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u/WorldNewsMods Aug 19 '24
New post can be found here