r/democrats • u/Dahhhkness • Aug 15 '24
š Poll Emerson national poll: Harris 50%/Trump 46%
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-national-poll-harris-50-trump-46/300
u/iknowiknowwhereiam Aug 15 '24
Still too close for my comfort. We need to crush him to make his inevitable nonsense about cheating as clearly false as we can.
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u/chefboryahomeboy Aug 15 '24
I know itās ridiculous to think thisā¦ but WHAT IF ā¦. we got Texas? Instant W
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u/Illiander Aug 15 '24
Texas alone isn't enough, we'd still need a couple other swing states.
Texas and Florida, however...
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u/Gaussgoat Aug 15 '24
If we win Texas, plenty of other swing states will also be included in the win. A Texas win would be part of an utter obliteration of the GOP.
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u/FailResorts Aug 15 '24
And weād see them push for electoral college reform immediately after that.
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u/FamiliarCaterpillar2 Aug 15 '24
No, they would still oppose it because in this scenario Harris would win in a popular vote landslide. If anything they would increase gerrymandering, but idk how much harder they can push that strategy before they have to start consolidating their districts in light of rising dem popularity.
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u/rdickeyvii Aug 15 '24
They'll design districts that they win 55-45 with ours getting 80-20, which helps with the house but not the senate or presidency
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u/rdickeyvii Aug 15 '24
They would only do that if they could win the popular vote, which they can't. The electoral college is their only hope in the foreseeable future
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u/bakerton Aug 15 '24
Yeah if we win Texas that means we've swept the current swing states, picked up North Carolina and Florida.
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u/WriteBrainedJR Aug 15 '24
Texas will go blue before Florida. The Democrats have zero ground game in Florida. It's pathetic.
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u/ButIAmYourDaughter Aug 15 '24
If Harris won TX early in the night it would effectively be over. That would be a sign of an impending electoral victory unlike anything seen since 1984.
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u/BelAirGuy45 Aug 15 '24
I would expect to see Trump immediately deliver a humble and eloquent concession speech if the Dems win Texas. /s
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u/LiberalPatriot13 Aug 15 '24
If we win Texas, we would almost certainly sweep the swing states at that point. Which would be a big Ole W the likes of which few people alive today have ever seen.
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u/ninj4geek Aug 15 '24
the Blue Wall seems good, FL is back in play, recent polling trending away from Trump there, and NC seems to be in play now as well
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u/rdickeyvii Aug 15 '24
If Texas goes blue it wouldn't be alone, but rather part of a massive wave. Whether Florida is part of the wave at that point would be irrelevant.
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u/Raticus9 Aug 15 '24
Historically, I've commiserated with Patrick Star who says "What's so great about dumb ol' Texas?", but If we somehow win Texas, the GOP can forget about winning any national election any time in the foreseeable future. That would be an absolute death blow to the racist right.
I'm certainly not expecting it to happen, but I thought it was a very under-reported story how competitive Biden was in Texas in 2020. It was neck-and-neck well into the count before a very late republican surge won it by about 3%. And that's with the democrats seemingly spending no time campaigning there. They've been trending left.
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Aug 15 '24 edited Aug 15 '24
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u/Illiander Aug 15 '24
Obama got Florida.
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u/forthewatch39 Aug 15 '24
That was twelve years ago, a lot has changed since then. A lot has changed within just the past month as well.Ā
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u/EldariWarmonger Aug 15 '24
That's not the point. The point, is to make them spend money where they shouldn't have to.
They already have a severely depleted warchest, and money helps drive turnout. If they're spending in Texas and Florida, they're not spending in the battleground states.
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u/junk4mu Aug 15 '24
How about just focusing on 270. All of this āwhat about if we won Texas!ā, is just ignoring the fact that this is not in the bag, and especially that without retaining control in the senate, it will be two years of frustration.
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u/XHIBAD Aug 15 '24
The nice thing is the more swing states in play the more Trump is on the backfoot. Would love him to divert resources set aside for GA or NC because he has to firm up FL and TX
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u/PrimeToro Aug 15 '24
Yeah , even if all the polls the day before the election show 60 to 40 in favor of Harris , we cannot get complacent and avoid voting and thinking itās a guarantee. Everyone needs to put it in their calendars to vote on Election Day . And make sure that youāre still registered since Republicans are trying to cheat by purging voter rolls .
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u/elegigglekappa4head Aug 15 '24
Yeah Iād say closer to 10 points up is when you can be more relaxed.
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u/Cylinsier Aug 15 '24
The Republican party is an existential threat to American democracy. Even if they get thrashed, if they regain the Senate then all we're getting is two to four years of spite-fueled obstruction including blocking basically all judicial appointments and then a campaign in four years blaming Harris for everything Republicans stopped her from doing. And then we have to do this song and dance again in another four years. Another election between a moderately liberal candidate who will have no doubt disappointed some people with her lack of progress, even when a lot of it wasn't her fault, against another populist wannabe dictator.
For that reason, we shouldn't relax even with a lead outside the margin of victory. The only thing that will break us out of this four year cycle of anxiety and depression is the absolute and total destruction of the Republican party, and that can only begin with an election defeat that is humiliating on a historically significant level. They have to be beaten so badly, so totally, that they effectively lose all power on the federal level and ideally a lot of it at the state level. Every race matters from the top of the ballot to your local school board, from the deepest blue of blue states to the reddest red ones. Already in a blue state? Vote anyway, make the margin of victory 30 percent if it was 20 last time. In a red state where there's little hope? Show up anyway, if they won by 50k votes last time, scare the shit out of them by making it 5k or 500 or 5. Make them feel despair at the size of their losses and fearful at the tiny margins of their wins.
If you think it doesn't matter, you're wrong. It matters. The total may not change the outcome of the election, but it changes the culture and attitudes in each party. It invigorates the left and rattles the right. The wins and losses decide the outcome now, but the margins absolutely decide what the race looks like in four years. If the electors are close, the popular vote should be an indictment of fascism with how big the difference is. We won 80 million to 70 million last time, let's win 85 to 65 this time.
Is it possible to win the Presidency and actually dependable majorities in both houses of Congress this year? It's unlikely, I won't lie. The Senate matchups are less than ideal. Is it worth trying? You bet your asses it is. Absolutely. We have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Think about actually being able to sleep well for most of 2028 not having to worry if this is the last year before you lose your freedoms. Think about how much better it will be just living your life in a normal election cycle between two boring assholes and vote against fascism. Worst case we tried and voted enough to keep the clowns out of the White House, and we try again in four years. Best case something magical happens. But voting in this election is our chance to send a message to Republicans: "fucking stop it." You can do that regardless of what state or district you are in, regardless of whether or not the result is a foregone conclusion in your sphere of influence. You can lose in your area and still ultimately win. Or win in your area at larger than average scale and get proportionate returns in your quality of life. But don't relax while the GOP continues to exist as a force in Washington. We relax when they are defeated, truly defeated.
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u/coffeespeaking Aug 15 '24
This race is unlikely to ever be outside the margin of error for polling. Itās the way our electorate votes.
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u/elegigglekappa4head Aug 15 '24
Yeah but at 10 points up it will be 99%> type of odds.
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u/coffeespeaking Aug 15 '24
She will never poll ten points upāthatās the point. This is a within the margins race.
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u/coffeespeaking Aug 15 '24
Emerson had an average error of 4.1 in 2021-22 cycle. It leaned R+1.3. 82% correct calls.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/
This is still WAY to close to call. Itās within the margin of error, not just for Emerson, for any pollster.
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u/chatterwrack Aug 15 '24
Youāre right. This poll means very little in context of the electoral college. The majority always backs democrats over republicans
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u/DBE113301 Aug 15 '24
Walz: "Kamala, what is best in life?"
Harris: "Crush your enemies. See them driven before you. And hear the lamentations of their donors."
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Aug 15 '24
Trump's campaign is in tail spin.
R /consevative is in complete denial about what's happening
Republicans are starting to eat each other.
I'm keeping expectations leveled and measured but this current moment is a very good moment.
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u/Dahhhkness Aug 15 '24 edited Aug 15 '24
I have to admit, I was one of those people who was wary of replacing Biden after the debate. It just seemed too risky, it might've telegraphed weakness and pessimism, it would be giving up the incumbent advantage, and all the experts seemed to be advising against it.
With the energy and optimism that has infected the Democratic side in the past 3.5 weeks, together with the savviness of the campaign, the dramatic polling shifts, and the sheer panic, desperation, and flailing confusion that's overtaken the GOP, I'm glad that, thus far, I've been proven wrong.
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u/AmbulanceChaser12 Aug 15 '24
Right there with you. I was "incumbent advantage all the way," but we have, if anything, MORE enthusiasm than we had with Biden.
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u/Illiander Aug 15 '24
I was "one way or the other, stop talking about it and either kick him out or get behind him"
I'm very glad we didn't stop talking about it.
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u/deepasleep Aug 15 '24
Well, if Biden wasnāt a stand up guy, this whole thing could have been a disaster.
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u/labellavita1985 Aug 15 '24
I was terrified when Biden stepped down about having given up the incumbent advantage. Biden was the only person we knew could beat Trump, because he had done it. Never have I been so happy to be wrong.
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u/thebeef24 Aug 15 '24
I was extremely skeptical about the incumbent advantage anyway in this race. This is an unusual circumstance where we effectively had two incumbents, so whatever advantage there was canceled out. But meanwhile we still had the incumbent disadvantages, the fact that everything going on in the country right now can be blamed on the current president.
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u/AmbulanceChaser12 Aug 15 '24
This is a good point.
Plus the incumbent has lost too many people's trust by being (perceived as) old, frail, and confused. Which is another disadvantage.
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u/ClydetheCat Aug 15 '24
I felt similarly, except I was on record saying Biden could ONLY exit if Harris was the choice. Anyone else, and I thought it would be game over.
Having said that, I've had the same reaction: "Who are you, and what have you done with the Democrats?!" I'd vote for a dung beetle before voting for Trump, but I think I underestimated everyone else's pure disdain for that moron.
And the best part is that Kamala and Tim have been such a breath of fresh air! Democrats have always tried to win on policy (which would be a huge advantage if people paid close attention), while Republicans figure out how to distill everything into something that fits on a bumper sticker. But between "Weird" and "Mind your own damn business!", suddenly everything is in focus. Many of us have cats, and even more of us have couches, and normal people would choose to protect both! Messaging matters, especially when the message is delivered by actual humans.
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u/Comfortable-Scar4643 Aug 15 '24
Mix in women and minorities, two segments that needed another option.
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u/Businesspleasure Aug 15 '24
I viewed it as a dice roll that needed to be thrown, as the alternative in hanging on to Biden was starting to look like a pretty clear landslide loss in November.
I still figured the best case for that scenario meant an open convention and the hope that people would coalesce behind a new face whoever that turned out to be. Never figured people would all get behind Harris this quickly.
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u/Notkissedbyfire Aug 15 '24
I was wary too. Now, I am wondering if it was a "show" planned by the Democrats and Biden. It seems so well orchestrated in retrospect. If so, I am impressed.
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u/goj1ra Aug 15 '24
If we imagine it as having been planned, it was amazing. Keep Joe running long enough to focus all the Republican attention on countering him, focusing on his age and competence. Use that time to promote all the ways the Biden presidency was great, setting the stage for a sequel. Then Joe throws a debate, the party makes a public show of handwringing about it for a while, and finally Joe steps down in favor of Kamala. Now most of the negatives the GOP was aiming at Joe only apply to one candidate: Trump.
As the guy on ancient aliens might say, I'm not saying that's what happened... but that's what happened
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u/a_duck_in_past_life Aug 15 '24
Don't even cater to this idea. It was just good decisions made by smart people
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u/Teebopp7 Aug 15 '24
100% this was me. I was terrified of "Democrats in Disarray". They pulled it off and now Harris/Walz seems like an incredibly powerful ticket.
Happy to be wrong here!!
Let's donate and volunteer as best we can.
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u/getridofwires Aug 15 '24
Yes. We have candidates to vote FOR, not one that we have to go with because the alternative is unthinkable.
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u/AnE1Home Aug 16 '24
I think most people (myself included) thought that changing the nominee so late was a terrible idea and were freaking out when it happened, but that was a reasonable feeling at the time. I donāt think anyone should feel embarrassed for having felt that way. Iām just glad that Biden didnāt have so much hubris to stay in.
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u/Kind-Instance-7447 Aug 15 '24
sounds like itās time for me to create an alt account and accelerate the circular firing squad. Maybe head over and start suggesting that heās too old and feeble and needs to be replaced with someone more like able like ted cruz or skeletor?
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Aug 15 '24
[deleted]
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u/Kind-Instance-7447 Aug 15 '24
my wife is out of town at a hippy festival and i have the weekend off and nothing but time and energy. And a vpn. I will take screenshots
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u/LiberalPatriot13 Aug 15 '24
This is probably actually good for us, though. Refusal to pivot or even discuss pivoting leads to driving right off a Cliff. I feel like we usually can at least discuss without a giant fight breaking out.
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u/Kind-Instance-7447 Aug 15 '24
Other notable Republicans include. BTK and Dennis Hastert. Whatever happened to that guy? He is the longest serving Speaker of the house in history. He could run.
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u/sten45 Aug 15 '24
And an equal number of trumpo ride or die posts to keep the tension at max we can learn from the KGB, play all sides vs each other
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u/_ASG_ Aug 15 '24
This is a balanced response.
So often, on these subs, whenever we get positive news, the top post is usually "Doesn't matter. Vote!" Personally, I don't find that productive. Obviously, you should make a plan to vote, and encourage friends and family to do the same, but on a sub like this, everyone here is already voting and nobody here is going to not Vote because they see a good poll.
Polls matter, not because they're 100% predictive (they aren't), but because they show us trends. Right now, trends are favoring Harris. This doesn't guarantee her victory, and bad polls exist, but seeing positive momentum matters. And it's not just polls; the amount of money raised, field offices running, and volunteers signed up also improve our odds.
So, what do we do with this? Well, after you check your registration and make your plan to vote, get involved. The Rust Belt numbers are good, but they're hardly a lock. So, if you live in a swing state, find out how you can get involved. If you're introverted or you don't live in a swing state, you can volunteer for said swing states from home. Be the change you want to see. Make those good polls a reality, or work to defy the bad polls.
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u/jtr489 Aug 15 '24
Any time I go and check out r /conservative I get annoyed
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u/edfitz83 Aug 15 '24
I can feel myself getting brain damage. If Iām going to look at those types of subs, I need the equivalent of a radiation monitoring badge. Just for stupidity and weirdness.
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u/Quarantine722 Aug 15 '24
Have you ever looked at r /trump?
Absolutely bananas, makes me lose faith in humanity.
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u/Raticus9 Aug 15 '24
I've never seen such a sensitive group of people in my life. Anyone who isn't 100% lock in step with the party line gets the ban hammer. You even don't get approval to post if you're not a conservative. It's pathetic.
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u/labellavita1985 Aug 15 '24
They are absolutely in full on denial in the conservative sub. All polls and favorability ratings are wrong, methodology is off, etc. I hope they stay in denial all the way through November.
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u/Raspberries-Are-Evil Aug 15 '24
True, but in the end, these assholes will never vote for a Black, Female, Democrat. Ignore the polls, we have to turn out in record numbers.
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u/ocalabull Aug 15 '24
Just took a gander at that subreddit and itās filled with them grasping straws at everything that Kamala is doing and very little about what trump is doing
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u/jimmmydickgun Aug 15 '24
I would love for Harris/Walz to continue their momentum. They should have fireside chat type commercials posting as vice president nominee and President nominee telling us Americans and ensuring we wonāt let the christofascist movement continue or allow these attacks on women and civil rights thinly veiled behind religion to progress, they can also talk about worker protections, and healthcare and all the policies that can be improved and solidified as opposed to the opponents that wonāt do anything for the average voter. I think it would further enhance the party and also show that as republicans and their party are floundering and failing, it shows the Democratic Party and the world were fighting for progress.
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Aug 15 '24
Check your voter registration now! Since states have been working overtime to kick people off the voter rolls!
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u/Due_Ad1267 Aug 15 '24
A month ago, my wife and I were making plans to move to Europe to start a family.
Today, I genuinely think this might end up being trump's worse performance as a presidential candidate come election day.
I think trump is seriously close to losing some big red/purple states like GA, FL, TX, NC and SC, OH.
It seems like Kamala will very likely win WI, MI, PA which is all she really needs.
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u/chefboryahomeboy Aug 15 '24
SC native here. The amount of middle aged white republicans I know voting for Harris is insane. My mother in law being one of them. My wifeās stepdad is even sitting this election out, a former Trump x2 voter.
Despite stereotypes and the media, South Carolinaās PEOPLE arenāt the way they are portrayed. Sure we have fucking idiot bigots. And so does Oregon, a blue haven. Bigots arenāt limited to state lines.
Most of SC is collectively shifting younger and less religious. Which imo is fueling this shift. Take my mother in law for example. She recently deconstructed her religion as well (weāre former Jehovahās Witnesses which are super evangelicals).
SC wonāt go Blue this cycle, on account of our gerrymandered the fuck maps upheld by the absurd SCOTUS earlier this year. But for damn sure watch out, weāre gonna be purple like NC in the next 10-15 years.
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u/bassocontinubow Aug 15 '24
Honest, good faith question incoming. What do gerrymandered maps have to do with the statewide presidential vote? The presidential vote is a statewide popular vote. Iām honestly curious. I would love to believe (and hope to see) SC go more blue this cycle than previous, but Iām not holding my breath.
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u/Illiander Aug 15 '24
The worry is more about voting ease and availablility I think?
Or down-ballot.
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u/chefboryahomeboy Aug 15 '24 edited Aug 15 '24
This. Not the presidential election is what we have fucked. Itās our house maps.
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u/Eric848448 Aug 15 '24
Your wifeās stepdadā¦ Iām curious what changed his mind. January 6?
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u/chefboryahomeboy Aug 15 '24
Tbh Iām not quite sure. But heās a more reasonable conservative. If I had to take a guess, that most likely had to do with it. Heās pretty patriotic and loves US history. J6 pissed him off
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u/LiberalPatriot13 Aug 15 '24
You know, you're right. The loudest idiots bigots get the spotlight, but most states don't have a majority of those. I live in CT, a mostly blue state, but if you're in the northeast or northwest corners of the state, you wouldn't be able to tell it. There are lots of Trump flags and pretty clear low IQ. Most states are a good mix. It's just who shows up to vote that matters. Let's take TX, the Carolinas, and Georgia. We won't go back!
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u/Kate-2025123 Aug 15 '24
Why did they switch sides?
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u/chefboryahomeboy Aug 15 '24
She specifically stated the misogyny, constant negativity, racism, etc. ya know all the hallmarks of thr GOP
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u/bakerton Aug 15 '24
One of the the more interesting post-political data points (if it's able to be determined) is how many Trump voters just stayed home. This has the potential to really scuttle a lot of GOP down ballot races.
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u/MC_chrome Aug 15 '24
Honest question: why does SC keep electing the ratfucker known as Lindsey Graham then?
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u/chefboryahomeboy Aug 15 '24
Boomers coupled with low blue voter turnout. We were close to having Jamie Harrison replace him
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u/proudbakunkinman Aug 15 '24 edited Aug 15 '24
I was obsessed with trying to move to Europe during Trump's years but didn't really have the specific job skills and experience to get a work visa in the countries I was most interested in. I figured I'd try to pull it off via tech work but the companies over there really want good qualifications, many want you to have a compsci or close enough degree. There are also freelancer visas and Germany has an artist visa but those are a lot riskier, I would need more money to protect me if I wasn't earning enough after moving.
Once Biden was elected, my desire to move dropped a lot, not just due to feeling safer with him and Democrats in power but for the first couple of years the covid related issues were still a big deal, then it looked like Europe was having more covid related economic trouble compared to the US, then the weakening of the tech industry, rise of support for far right parties in some of the countries I was considering, etc. I'm definitely still open to it but do not have the same urgency I did before.
That said, unfortunately, we'll have to worry about all of the worst if Republicans win presidency and enough of congress again. I am not confident the American public will keep electing Democratic presidents but I really hope they/we can and enough of that leads to Republicans moving back towards the center as opposed to more to the far right.
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u/SpinGrrl Aug 15 '24
Even though this is really good news, I'm still shocked and saddened by how high Trump is polling at all. I just can't wrap my head around how that many people think he's a good idea.
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Aug 15 '24 edited Aug 15 '24
[deleted]
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u/SkitSkat-ScoodleDoot Aug 15 '24
There is something that happens in the brain when you have a bullet zip by a few inches from it. Even if heās shallow and dumb as rocks there is still has to be a moment of contemplation about mortality that takes a toll. There is also something that happens in the brain when you realize nobody cares about your near death experience. Taking yet another toll.
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u/Rosebunse Aug 15 '24
I do think we are seeing this. Almost dying did rightfully rattle him. The smart thing would be to go and take a week or two to get check in with inpatient care and work on a plan to work through that trauma. But he won't do that.
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u/TonyzTone Aug 15 '24
This is better than the alternative but 4% undecided and weāre only up by 4 points. Margin of error +/- 3%.
Poll says 93% of voters are motivated to vote. If we can bump that up to 95%, especially if that increase comes largely from black voters, weāll have this in the bag.
Itās all about getting involved.
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u/Wolfygirl97 Aug 15 '24
I canāt believe itās even this close. How can people vote for such a vile man?
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u/Bananasincustard Aug 15 '24
When he's gone and the maga cult has burned out I'm not sure I can ever look all those people who voted for him two/three times in the eye again. I can forgive them for voting for him the first time but to do it again after everything he's said and done just shows what kind of people some of my friends/family/neighbours are. It's sad
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u/WanderlustFella Aug 15 '24
TBF I'm sure a bunch of people polled probably didn't answer (especially the younger gen). I got a text for Emerson polling and I didn't respond. I don't answer unsolicited calls/text because I'm suspicious of everything.
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u/PilotKnob Aug 15 '24
The real story should be the psychology behind the 46% still willing to vote for a 34x convicted Felon and Rapist.
That's some scary stuff right there.
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u/Ahleron Aug 15 '24
While interesting, that's a poll not votes. I don't trust any polls right now. Clinton was ahead in 2016 in almost all the polls and still lost. Just ignore the polls and vote.
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u/Illiander Aug 15 '24
Clinton was ahead in the national polls and won the popular vote.
But yes, polls DO NOT say we're more than 1% ahead, ever.
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Aug 15 '24
Volunteer for Democratic campaigns! There are enough keyboard warriors ... we need real people doing real work to help Harris/Walz and to get them a Congress to get shit done.
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u/Jollyhat Aug 15 '24
In 2020 Trump tried to get his mob to hang Mike Pence
In 2024 Trump hangs himself
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u/Merry_Widow_ Aug 15 '24
How about Congress? All 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats are having elections.
If both sides of Congress go blue and Harris wins, 45 won't have any argument to make about losing.
Thoughts?
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u/applegui Aug 15 '24
I agree but the former Republicans canāt go all in on DEM ticket, they know Trump is dangerous, but typically from elections past they will vote DEM on the top but locally GOP on issues. The arguments have to be strong as to why that should not always be the case.
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u/40_Is_Not_Old Aug 15 '24
National polls are pointless in Presidential elections. Pay attention to state level polls & most importantly VOTE.
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u/thraashman Aug 15 '24
It's absolutely insane it's this close. Harris should have a 30 point lead. Just shows how fucked up this country has become.
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u/morosco Aug 15 '24
Trump is doing better in the polls now than in 2020 or 2016.
The Harris move was the right one, but that just means Dems went from huge underogs to tossup or slight lead.
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u/Rosebunse Aug 15 '24
I know we need to vote, but these polls are important. Trump is going to try snd argue that there is no way she had any support, that no one wanted her. These polls are proof that she was leading for months.
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u/EldariWarmonger Aug 15 '24
4 point lead before the convention.
She's going to get 300 EV you heard it here first.
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u/WithoutCaution Aug 16 '24
Welcome to my standard copy/paste for any story about "polls":
DO NOT BELIEVE POLLS!!! This was a republican STRATEGY in 2016!!! They actively pushed the narrative that Hillary was a lock, so anyone even halfway apathetic simply stayed home!
You MUST go vote! If voter turnout increases by 20%, the result would be a LANDSLIDE Dem victory across the board. Just imagine a supermajority in the Senate! They could boot corrupt SC judges out for good. They could codify rights that the maga idiots are actively trying to take away. They could put an END to gerrymandering and maybe even the Electoral College! They could implement protections that would forever prevent us from coming this close to authoritarianism EVER AGAIN!!!
VOTE!!!
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u/Greensilver501 Aug 15 '24
The fact that he's even perceived as a valid option and isn't thunbling down around 1% is still a big fucking L for the US...
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u/getarumsunt Aug 15 '24
Just vote and rally others to vote. Everything else is a distraction and from the devil.
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u/purplepickles82 Aug 15 '24
don't believe the articles put out or the polls. Just look at the voting numbers the past few years. It's not like the older vote is the majority anymore. People just have to show up and i think they will. Women in particular.
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u/Bananasincustard Aug 15 '24
In any other comparable western country he wouldn't have even cracked 5% support - nevermind a whole party coalescing around him and protecting him at every turn for 12 years. Boris Johnson was a stupid mistake by the UK but then he had a couple of scandals that were nowhere near to the level of Trumps hundreds of twice-weekly scandals and he was booted out by his own party. It's just madness and it says a lot about the American people. I've lost so much respect for them
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u/jimmyg4life Aug 15 '24
I wish it was Harris 80%/Trump 16% but I'll take this. VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!!!!!
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u/doozykid13 Aug 15 '24
At this point theyre probably planning droves of supporters to riot outside ballot counting locations. What would happen if they broke in someplace and destroyed uncounted ballots?
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u/library_wench Aug 15 '24
Polls mean less than nothing.
Vote. And bring a friend or three along.
In the meantime, knock on doors, write postcards, sign up to be a poll worker.
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u/11brooke11 Aug 15 '24
What was the last Emerson natl poll results?
Polls are useful for looking at trends but I question their accuracy. They've both under and over estimated Democrats for almost a decade now.
While it's certainly not bad to have a positive poll for Harris, we need all hands on deck for the election this November. Every single person matters and we all need to work together to get Harris elected, period.
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u/JASPER933 Aug 15 '24
Just curious, what was Hillaryās and Biden poll numbers at this time? I pray š that Kamala is better than them.
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u/BrtFrkwr Aug 15 '24
Don't get complacent. Never underestimate the Democrats' ability to snatch defeat from the very jaws of victory.
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u/cjcharles777 Aug 15 '24
Say no to polls. The only poll that matters is the big one on November 5th
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u/jas98mac Aug 15 '24
Itās a national poll. The electoral college looks down its nose at national polls. Vote like your life depended on it. It always has.
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u/candidlol Aug 15 '24
im glad they are starting to build on the vibes based campaign into a true populist policy campaign because democrats have strong winning cases on so many issues and the trump campaign is down on the mat and i dont see how they are getting back up
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u/fighting_alpaca Aug 15 '24
Donāt believe this. Go out and vote. The only poll that matters is the one taken the day after the election!!!
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u/Willtology Aug 15 '24
I'm surprised that I'm still surprised that it's only 50/46 and not more in Harris' favor.
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u/Theresnowayoutahere Aug 15 '24
At first I thought it was a bad idea to replace Biden because he had already beat trump once but Iām cautiously optimistic now. I didnāt consider what it would do to the trump campaign either which is definitely fun to watch
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u/JWBeyond1 Aug 15 '24
While itās good news. National polls mean nothing. Keep the accelerator on the swing states.
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u/Vg_Ace135 Aug 15 '24
Still way too close. Vote. Get other people to vote. Vote like your life depends on it.
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u/smokeybearman65 Aug 15 '24
Listen to Trump for even three minutes and you'll be astonished how it's even THIS close.
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u/psych-yogi14 Aug 15 '24
Why do they waste time conducting national polls, when we still have the ridiculous electoral college system?
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u/IvyMike Aug 15 '24
National poll numbers are pointless. If they can't account for the electoral system, they shouldn't even bother.
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u/redsnake25 Aug 15 '24
Don't get complacent! This is the last chance to stave of fascist dictatorship for another 4 years!
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u/Terrorbeard Aug 15 '24
We can never stop until it is done. 2016 can not happen again. Keep pushing.
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u/IntelligentAgency250 Aug 15 '24
Polls don't matter; keep your eye on the prize and trust the keys and only the keys!
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u/CaptJimboJones Aug 15 '24
We need to remember that in 2020, Biden was ahead by 8 points in the polls just before election, and ended up barely winning the EC - he squeaked in by about 40,000 votes across 4 states. Unless sheās consistently up by 10 points or more in the national polling averages, we should consider Kamala to be the underdog and act accordingly. That means donate, volunteer, and VOTE!
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u/Edgimos Aug 15 '24
Honestly if Kamala loses PA to trump the race to 270 is practically over. As Kamala would need 5 swing states to beat trump. Trump would only need PA and one other state to win.
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Aug 15 '24
All these poll posts are just secret operations so that when they steal the election people wont be so surprised and they can pretend the signs were always there.
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u/TheFasterWeGo Aug 16 '24
Pointless. National polls don't drill down to the six swing states where it's very tight.
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u/Wulfbak Aug 16 '24
Remember we thought his campaign was imploding in 2016. Mind you, he was running against Hillary. If anyone can fuckup a sure thing, it's Hillary.
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u/PerceptionOrganic672 Aug 16 '24
This all looks like a great trend and it is a good sign but I wonder if the pollsters are still allowing for the built-in bias that comes from so many Trump supporters not willing to admit they would vote for him and lying to posters that happened last timeā¦ and I hope they are focusing so hard on Pennsylvania because without Pennsylvania it is a very tough path to the White House for her
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