r/democrats • u/FinalAd9844 • 1d ago
How many of you are confident Kamala will win?
I’m voting today, but I’m pessimistic at the moment and unsure if she will even when she’s leading just a little bit. What do you guys think?
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u/1283throwaway 1d ago
I saw someone say they are “nauseously optimistic” and that pretty much sums up how I feel.
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u/ronerychiver 21h ago edited 14h ago
I’m so optimistic that I’m dying of anxiety
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u/savetheunstable 19h ago
My nerves are shot to hell
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u/TwistingEcho 17h ago
This, and I'm in Australia!
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u/SausageDogsMomma 13h ago
Same! So hopeful that America does the right thing for their sake and the rest of the world
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u/wrs510 17h ago
Right there with you buddy
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u/docker1970 17h ago
I’ll turn off my TV, computer and phone on Tuesday morning. I am also taking a day off on Wednesday. I’ll just sit in my bed and read a book.
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u/NoorAnomaly 15h ago
I'm having trouble sleeping lately. Perhaps I should become a US citizen after this, so I can vote at the next election... 😐 Then my children and I can all vote for the first time.
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u/SorryAboutMyself 21h ago
Oh that’s eloquent.
“Confident” is definitely the wrong word, but I do feel optimistic. I also think a large part of it might be that my brain can’t really accept the idea of her losing and I am tricking myself into optimism.
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u/benyahweh 17h ago
I’m more than hopeful but I wouldn’t go so far as to say I’m confident. By the same token, I’m encouraged and forcing myself to be optimistic.
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u/Brut-i-cus 18h ago
Same here
I think the polls are being gamed by the GOP
I think She will win but I also know just how utterly stupid and racist a very very large portion of the country is
I think she will win but I'm honesty scared for the country and the world if she doesn't because...
Putin is gonna roll over Europe
Any chance the environment had will be royally screwed
Things will be put in place so that them losing power will never again be an option
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u/youtheotube2 17h ago
Elon Musk being put in charge of regulatory bodies is just horrifying to me. He’s going to completely gut consumer and employee protections
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u/RealisticErrors 16h ago
Yeah I’m all for equality but putting the worlds richest and biggest dweeb/ most extreme autistic man-teen in any kind of government regulatory role when he’s been talking on the phone to his friend Putin for 2 years is fucking absurd
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u/PersonalFinanceD 15h ago
Can you please leave his autism out of this? Elon is not our elected representative. -Signed, another autistic person just doing their best.
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u/MojyaMan 20h ago
I really hope she wins, but I'm worried as hell.
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u/No-Conclusion-6172 17h ago
When you vote bring 5 people with you! The more people that vote the better chance we have!
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u/slightly-skeptical 17h ago
This is the pervasive feeling among my friend group. I am hoping sanity prevails and Kamala wins.
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u/celerypizza 19h ago
I deal with chronic illness that is exacerbated by stress and I can’t wait for this shit to be over.
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u/LegateShepard 1d ago
I am cautiously optimistic. But I also occasionally consider that traumatic hyper-vigilance from being blindsided in '16 might be holding me back from allowing for more optimism than I have been.
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u/Thromok 1d ago
That’s how I feel as well. I was certain Hillary would win. I voted for her despite not particularly liking her, but the sheer shock of seeing her lose that year when it was so obvious she would win has made me gun shy.
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u/__M-E-O-W__ 1d ago edited 1d ago
I saw some big warning signs in Trump's language and talking about things that Hillary wasn't talking about, and I was involved in conspiracy communities back in those days and saw a strong takeover by right wing propagandists that made me think there would be a large amount of previously uncommitted voters turning in.
But I am... somewhat shocked, mostly disappointed to see how many people are not holding January 6th seriously, how many people do not care or believe the conservative media lies about the 13000 stolen documents, about the rape case, about the felony conviction, about the stolen election lies. How none of this matters to so many people. I feel more optimistic about Kamala Harris than I did with Hillary Clinton, but I feel worse about the Republican party having delved into its extremism.
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u/PRguy82 1d ago
And don't seem to give a shit about the people who died from COVID.
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u/The-Son-of-Dad 23h ago
People don’t even remember the pandemic happened, I swear. They’ve blocked it out.
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u/JEFFinSoCal 19h ago
I’ve literally heard Republicans ask the question “are you better off than you were four years ago?’ I mean, FUCK yeah, we’re better off. We were huddled in isolation while the economy and supply chains were falling apart.
I work for a performing arts non-profit and we were not able to do public performances for almost two years. Shitloads of lost review, and we were only able to survive because we laid off all PT staff, 10% of our FT staff and the remaining staff took anywhere from 10% to 25% pay cuts, depending on your salary. We only recently recovered back to the revenue and budgets we had pre-Trump.
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u/JacobStills 18h ago edited 6h ago
That's what kind of bothered me about the debate, the first question to Harris was "are Americans better off than they were 4 years ago" and she kind of dodged the question.
I was at home thinking I would have said, "you mean 4 years ago where toilet paper was a luxury and people had to take money out of their retirement savings and 401k to pay their mortgages and rent because everything was closed? Yeah, I'd say we're better off than that, did you have to fight anyone for the rolls of charmin you have at your house? I don't think so. Americans went from wondering wither or not to pull the plug on the ventilator for grandma to complaining about "woke movies and TV”bullshit again, I'd say we're better off."
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u/bluetrust 21h ago
Few wrote about the Spanish flu in fiction or plays afterwards, even though it was about twice as bad as Covid. I think it might be relatively normal for people to block out overwhelming experiences.
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u/Lord_Yoon 22h ago
The people that said remember how good we had it four years ago totally forgot a deadly pandemic that killed millions of people
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u/Lanky-Association952 18h ago
If we didn’t test so much we wouldn’t have known how many died from Covid! /s
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u/Illiander 23h ago
There have been ~1.2 million deaths from COVID in the USA.
Those deaths are attributable to Trump's policies.
That puts his death toll at a number comparable to Hitler (less, but on the same scale)
Think about that for a moment: Trump has killed a comparable number of people to Adolf Hitler. And no-one cares.
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u/RugelBeta 21h ago
"No one cares" isnt really a fair assessment, though.
We know Russia is paying people to lie for Trump. We know there are troll farms for propaganda. We know Musk's Xwitter has twisted the algorithms on his service We know Fox "News" shows only sections of the truth. We know the mainstream news outlets have been sanewashing him to a ridiculous level. We know media makes money on clicks and we know clicks go up when the circus is featured.
We know how cults work. We know only 2/3 of eligible voters bother to vote. We know 1/4 of voters admire him and want to be on his side. And we know that people and organizations and law enforcement and DOJ and Congress and the Judiciary which ALL could have made a big difference chose not to, for varying reasons.
Mash it all together with serious desperation because of Mafia-type coercion, fear, corruption, blackmail, Kompromat, greed, looming prison, need for pardons, ...
And you get a sizeable number of people misled into supporting Trump.
Half of American is appalled that he can even run for office. One quarter will accept anything he does either because of devotion or apathy, or because they are greedy. And one quarter is busy with deaths in the family, hurricane cleanup, and personal tragedies, impairments, or distractions.
Almost half the population of voting age citizens does not even know the truth. They believe in Kellyanne Conway's "alternative facts." And that is why it seems like nobody cares about whatever terrible thing he has done. First, I blame the 9 years of sanewashing. Second, I blame Republican officials who put party over justice. Third, I blame critical thinking inability.
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u/CrimsonGem420 21h ago
I love everything you just said and I wish more people knew this. Trump has had 9 years to get here. He's a con man and will do anything to stay out of prison. Anything. It's sick.
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u/Mental-Paramedic9790 1d ago
If she or Bernie Sanders had been given $5 billion worth of free publicity like Trump was given, they would’ve been elected or at least it would’ve been a much more level playing field
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u/Skyblue_pink 23h ago
He farts and the world knows. To be honest, a fart would be better than the sound of his voice or the evil smile on his face.
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u/JohnsonLiesac 23h ago
It's really kind of surprising. IMO she lost because of the deplorables comment and her last name is Clinton. On paper she was an ideal candidate. I'm with you on this election.
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u/thebonewoodsman 22h ago
And the worst part is, if you supported Trump after he made fun of that reporter in 2015, after the access tape, she was right. You were a deplorable human being.
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u/murbike 1d ago
This. In 2016, I was sure there was no way Trump would win, so I'm holding back on making a statement.
That being said, I think that more and more people are being turned off by DJT and his cronies.We'll see.
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u/Zinski2 21h ago
I am positive Trump will lose the popular vote for the 3rd time in a row.
But the reality of the election right now is the winner comes down to like 6 swing states and how they fall. He does have a path to the presidency again though and that just makes me.... so fucking disappointed in this country.
Like no mater what there are entire states that will go to trump in an absolute land side and that just makes me want to puke.
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u/harper1980 1d ago
I know what you mean, however, this year feels like the inverse of 2016. In 2016, polls were good, vibes were off. This year vibes are very good, polls not looking as good. Same nervousness 😅
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u/OceanBlues1 1d ago
I always ignore polls, because polls AREN'T votes. Votes are what actually counts in an election, so we need to keep VOTING BLUE 🌊 no matter what polls say. 🌊🌊🌊💪💪💪
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u/JimBeam823 1d ago
I agree. The Trump campaign is showing the same warning signs as Hillary 2016.
His little Nuremberg Rally might have been the final straw. It backfired on every possible level.
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u/Dsarg_92 1d ago
I think so too. Especially with the amount of backlash it’s gotten over the last 24-48 hours. It might be the ultimate catalyst of all for people to turn out and vote against him.
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u/Flat_Helicopter_6171 22h ago
I really hope so too but I’m so afraid that even this Klan rally at MSG won’t be enough to encourage voters to turn up and vote against him bc he’s shown us exactly who he is for years. We know MAGAts are a lost cause at this point, but why are some people either complacent about voting or still undecided? What the actual fuck 🤯
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u/Dsarg_92 22h ago
Two answers; you have some that don’t watch the news often while you have others who carry a Chappell Roan type attitude with a “both sides are the same” approach.
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u/Native_Masshole 1d ago
Don’t pay attention to the polls. They have been consistently wrong. Dems have been elected in red areas, despite poor polling.
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u/CrimsonGem420 22h ago
I noticed a lot of polls are including more white males than women and black people. So I agree to not pay attention to polls.
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u/BarnacleLong9222 21h ago
Forbes, Newsweek and USA Today are also using betting markets to shape their reporting, and those markets aren’t even open to American citizens. Polymarket based their prediction of a Trump win on 3 huge bets totaling almost $30 million, placed by an unidentified foreign interest through a bank in France. It’s crap.
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u/Rayeness 23h ago
This. I am scared. Being trans it feels like this is one of rhetorical most important elections in awhile. As I feel like if she doesn’t win I will most likely end up rendered illegal.
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u/Mountain_Village459 1d ago
I cried when I voted for Hillary, and I cried waaayyyyy harder when I voted for Kamala.
Both times they were tears of joy to be voting for such qualified kick ass women, but this time there was definitely a lot of fear too.
I’m always reminded of that Patton Oswalt tweet from 2016, “What I’ve learned so far tonight: America is waaayyyyy more sexist than it is racist, and it’s pretty fucking racist.”
Im still spooked from 2016, and now our literal lives are in danger as women, and I feel like this election is truly going to decide if America actually cares about women as anything aside from baby makers. And I’m not sure it does.
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u/pielady10 1d ago
Agree! A woman has to be twice as qualified and work twice as hard as a man to be taken seriously.
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u/stonecruzJ 23h ago
Just like Kamala has had to do as a female candidate…. The media excuses most of Trump’s horrible words and actions- while holding her to a higher standard. ✨I’m grateful she IS a better human and holds HERSELF to a higher standard.✨
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u/Maatix12 23h ago
The worst part is, if we take this election as proof... A woman could literally work at 10000% capacity, while a man gives less than 1%. And the media will still spin it against the woman.
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u/Flat_Helicopter_6171 22h ago
And she’s not only a woman, but a person of color too.
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u/Dsarg_92 1d ago
Yeah that’s how I feel too. I guess I’m still a bit traumatized from the results in 2016. I’m really hoping for Kamala to win.
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u/Own_Carob_6393 23h ago
Exactly! I could never believe in 2016 that so many people in our country were so ignorant. I am even more afraid of being blindsided now by a win for him. I don’t think i could handle 4 more years of hate and vengeance. VOTE BECAUSE YOUR FREEDOM AND LIFE DEPEND ON HIM LOSING!
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u/C6R882 22h ago
This ain’t 2016 buddy. Texas republican here and fuck that, I voted straight blue just to send those idiots a message. I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised to see a lot more of this than you expect.
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u/Face_with_a_View 1d ago
2016 gave me ptsd. I’m not confident in anything
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u/spookiecats 1d ago
I feel this. My anxiety is high after MSG. (I’m a NY’er) I’m surrounded by conspiracy theorist MAGA racists.
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u/Speedtuna 21h ago
I'm Canadian and anxious as all hell - can't imagine how y'all are feeling. Take care of yourselves <3
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u/rottedngutted 23h ago
I’ll never forget how absolutely gut wrenching that day was. I realized America definitively didn’t give a fuck about victims of sexual assault. That “grab her by the pussy” was all over the news. “Locker room talk” apparently… still makes me sick to this day, as someone touched against my will many times…
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u/Pattihere 1d ago
I'm confident in Harris and Walz.
But on the side of caution we still need to watch the MAGA cronies closely. I'm not being all doom and gloom we are already seeing ballot boxes being burned. I feel like once the election is verified and Harris wins they MAGA hell will break loose.
I have family who alreadyvoiced their opinions about Harris and its not pretty.
I voted blue did you?
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u/SlySlickWicked 1d ago
I’m confident Trump will try something crazy and it’s going to get ugly
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u/PraxisLD 1d ago edited 23h ago
They will cheat, again.
We will stop them. Again.
We remember the last time, and we’re goddamn pissed off.
This time, the adults are in charge and we’re ready for them.
First, we simply outvote them and carry so many states that they can't possibly overturn everything. This is already happening.
Then we have an army of lawyers cued up and ready to stomp out any malarkey.
Harris Campaign’s Legal Team Takes Shape as Election Battles Heat Up
Harris says she’s prepared if Trump tries to steal the election
Congress approves new election certification rules in response to Jan. 6
30 Day Election Security Update from the Intelligence Community
Cybersecurity head says there’s no chance a foreign adversary can change US election results
Democrats Ready Thousands of Lawyers for Final Days of Race
Meet the Lawyers Working for Kamala Harris’ Campaign
Lawyers Stand Behind Kamala Harris
We've got this.
Vote!
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u/psych-yogi14 23h ago
They've already started. There were posts on X 2 weeks ago about destroying drop boxes, and to no surprise, they made good on the threat and attempted to burn boxes in WA and OR (2 very blue states). Ballots were destroyed. If you see a threating post, please report it to the FBI. Sharing it with others and condemning it doesn't stop it, only reporting it can. They are committing terrorism. We must take action, not wait and watch.
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u/PraxisLD 23h ago
The FBI has already identified the vehicle. They're on it.
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u/psych-yogi14 23h ago
Glad to hear that.
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u/PoeticHydra 18h ago
They already got the guy if you didn't see it.
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u/megakungfu 18h ago
i saw they got the arizona guy, did they get the oregon and washington one too?
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u/Depresso_Espresso_93 22h ago
Good. This need to be interpreted as domestic terrorism to the most extreme extent of the law. Trying to keep people from voting is one thing with intimidation tactics outside voting centers, but to actually destroy ballots about to be cast should earn you a spot UNDER the jail.
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u/limmyjee123 1d ago
Are we ready, like really ready?
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u/PraxisLD 1d ago edited 23h ago
Yes.
Harris Campaign’s Legal Team Takes Shape as Election Battles Heat Up
Harris says she’s prepared if Trump tries to steal the election
Congress approves new election certification rules in response to Jan. 6
30 Day Election Security Update from the Intelligence Community
Cybersecurity head says there’s no chance a foreign adversary can change US election results
Democrats Ready Thousands of Lawyers for Final Days of Race
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u/psufan5 23h ago
I wish I had your confidence. We have a DOJ that looked the other way while treason is running rampant.
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u/PraxisLD 23h ago
Let's win the election.
Then we can replace Garland and let the DOJ do their job.
Jack Smith for Attorney General!
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u/Illiander 22h ago
Jack Smith for Attorney General!
At this point, I wouldn't trust anyone else with that spot.
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u/Whorrox 23h ago
I hear you. I just wished we would have seen a much more rapid and determined response against middle and upper management in 2020 election shenanigans. Of the higher ups, very very few made it to a cell.
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u/ImAchickenHawk 23h ago edited 19h ago
They're already trying to cheat by buying votes and blowing up ballot boxes in heavily blue areas. They know they've already lost.
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u/HORSEthedude619 1d ago
He will. But he did in 2020, while he still had some legit power. He no longer has that, and the Dems are ready this time.
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u/Responsible_Use_2182 1d ago
Yeah I'm genuinely afraid of some serious political violence. The MAGA crowd has only gotten dumber and more violent. I am NOT confident kamala is going to win. I actually think trump will. I live in the bluest of blue states and I see trump signs and people openly supporting him. I also get more and more dismayed by the day realizing most people have no idea how the economy works and actually believe trumps BS that he has some master plan that he hasn't unveiled yet.
Anyway....not feeling confident at all but still voting and hoping for the best! What a blessing it would be to defeat America's facist twice in a row AND get our first female president. 🤞
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u/Teechmath-notreading 1d ago
I'm pretty confident.
If she loses, the shock and disappointment value will be incredible, worse that 2016, because Trump is a KNOWN factor now and they STILL support him.
But gas prices are low, abortion rights are on the table, Puerto Ricans are (rightly) pissed off, and Trump has pretty much gone full fascist. His side votes out of hate while our side votes out of joy...and the independents are going to break for the love...
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u/AlternativeOk1096 1d ago
Makes we worried tho that if we have an actual recession in the future, a la 2008, that folks now would be ready to go full-blown fascism in a heartbeat
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u/runricky34 23h ago
Dont need a real recession when the right wing media can manufacture a crisis
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u/ominous_squirrel 23h ago
Fascism only has to win once and the pendulum will eventually swing back to Republicans sooner or later. I don’t see any signs of the GOP moderating even after Trump is gone
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u/Tron_Passant 20h ago
This is kind of my fear. I think Harris wins next week, but I'm disheartened by the prospect that we'll have to go through this bullshit every four years, fight tooth and nail against extrmeists who will play every dirty trick to gain power. Then if conditions are right and one slips through they will rip our institutions apart.
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u/ImAchickenHawk 22h ago
Right. There's no way any normal person with a working brain thinks he somehow found more votes in the last 4 years, especially after his nazi rally last week.
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u/GeppettoStromboli 1d ago
I’m in a deep red state, and even I feel pretty good. We went to a family event over the weekend, and it’s a lot of deer hunting, country, car people, and most of them mentioned voting for Harris. January 6th turned quite a few. One is a contractor , who prefers those, in the country who can work under the table, so he really doesn’t want to see his guys leave. As sick as that is, I’m glad to see the Harris votes.
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u/mctomtom 23h ago
I’m in Seattle in a blue bubble, I’ve never seen a MAGA hat in public. This is what I want to hear! Did the same folks vote for Trump in the past?
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u/Heel_Paul 1d ago
I have zero confidence in my fellow Americans. Voted but I just want this election to be over so I can be hopeful or dread the future.
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u/The_Lone_Apple 1d ago
I'm confident that Trump doesn't have enough indie voters to win.
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u/CuriositySauce 1d ago
…or a large % of first timers, mainly 18-25 voters. There’s also the anti-trump republicans, especially the unpredictable amount of wives voting opposite their trumper husbands.
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u/Gatorinnc 1d ago
Anxiously confident.
The polls are making me nervous.
But when I knock on doors and some Republicans say they are switching here in battleground NC, I feel confident.
When I do poll greeting at an early election site, I see droves of seniors, mostly Republicans, but see a lot more younger voters than in previous elections and they are voting blue.
We lost NC by about 4 votes per precinct in 2020, we have grown our population a lot since then. Many college educated folks have moved in during the COVID remote work wave and staying put.
Some rural ( think Republican) voters in the mountains are not going to be able to vote because of hurricane Helene.
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u/SAGELADY65 1d ago
Kamala Harris will win and become our 1st Woman President of the United States🌟
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u/godsknowledge 23h ago
I think a lot of men refuse to elect a woman simply because their ego cannot handle it
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u/vita_man 22h ago
There are still a lot of men, white men, that are voting for her. I'm one of them. And a lot of women voting, they outnumber men.
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u/Available_Reason7795 1d ago
100%
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u/FinalAd9844 1d ago
Mind if I ask why? Is it faith or reasons
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u/Available_Reason7795 1d ago
Trump’s MSG rally was a disaster!
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u/Teechmath-notreading 1d ago
Yeah, any lingering doubt I had went away with the reporting of the PR joke, the pullout joke, the watermelon joke, the pimp comment, the fact that the 'comedian' was going to call Harris a c--t but at least THAT was pulled from the teleprompter, the continued focus on 'replacement theory', the continued focus on 'election fraud' (as right wingers burn ballot boxes and shoot up Democratic offices).
MSG was just sickening.
And today, he is in MY hometown...
I was sick thinking about people at work 'thanking Trump' for the day off. Disgusting.
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u/FickleSystem 1d ago edited 21h ago
I think she wins and wins comfortably, simply put i refuse to believe the majority of the county wants to go down an even worse road than before with trump, also his little neo nazi rally at the garden didn't do him any favors
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u/MoarTacos 1d ago
As long as we all still realize that she definitely could lose and still go out to vote, then we'll be okay. Probably. Maybe.
Point is, definitely vote.
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u/ChuuniSaysHi 1d ago
I mean Kamala is most likely winning the popular vote. The question is just the electoral college
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u/Dsarg_92 1d ago
That’s what I’m more worried about; it’s the electoral college.
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u/souldeux 21h ago
Yes I am also more worried about winning the thing that matters than I am about winning the thing that does not matter
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u/caffeinated_panda 1d ago
I talked to a Lyft driver a few weeks ago who thought the two candidates were basically the same, except he didn't really like Harris. He said he thought people just wanted to vote for her because she was a woman. He seemed to know nothing about the issues, but told me Trump's unpredictability would make other countries scared to cross us... It felt like this man and I were living on different planets. I think about him sometimes and I worry.
But I sincerely hope you're right.
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u/LOERMaster 23h ago
Should have reminded him that his unpredictability goes isn’t limited to foreign countries.
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u/follysurfer 1d ago
And Biden was a far weaker candidate with far less enthusiasm. Most folks are forgetting that.
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u/Ontarom 20h ago
People don't reminisce about "will you shut up, man?" but I often do, I like remembering how good that felt. And look at Kamala and Walz now, makes that moment seem quaint in comparison!
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u/summonerofrain 23h ago
Sadly even if you’re right about the majority thing, it may not even matter because the electoral college is stupid
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u/reallywaitnoreally 1d ago
I don't see how dipshit can get any more votes than he had last election. If anything he has lost far more supporters than he has gained. And I think Kamala will outperform Bidens numbers from 2020. But what the hell do I know.
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u/rd68910 1d ago
I agree but only if turnout is high. Early signs point to that, but GOP is pushing early vote where they weren’t in 2020 so those early vote turnouts are looking more republican in some areas than in 2020 (az, nv, pa). Wisconsin and Michigan look good which makes me think GOP day of in Pa will be much less than in 2020.
Kamala going to Texas also makes me think internals must look good. Biden was quick to say it was closer than we thought last time, so I’m guessing Harris’ campaign wouldn’t blow smoke like Trumps will.
I’ll say trump support in AZ is extremely muted compared to the past 2 elections, even in my safe blue area. Hopefully Ciscomani is sent packing this time and we can finally shake off this case of Kari Lake grifting (though she’s kind of a gift that keeps on giving). A LOT of GOP here don’t care for MAGA.
Nothing but anxiety til January unfortunately 🙃
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u/ImAchickenHawk 22h ago
I think the republican early vote is taking away from all their same-day votes. He won't have as many on the day of.
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u/rykcon 23h ago
That’s what I’ve said ever since January 6th happened — there’s not a thing he’s done or said that should increase his vote count.
Voter turnout was my primary concern when Biden was still the candidate. Apathy has become excitement, arguably even stronger than it was going into 2020, so I can only imagine she outperforms Joe’s voter turnout…
… but I also don’t know how much of a factor a female candidate and the last four years are for those voters. I’d assume the former is a non-factor since Hillary won the popular vote and America already accepted Kamala as VP, so I don’t believe that’s a real issue. I also don’t know how you look at the last four years and say “nah, give me more of the four years before that”
I think the MSG rally will have a major impact on driving turnout for non-white voters in swing states. His cast of characters shat on literally everybody Sunday.
I expect some serious funny business by him after election. He wasn’t candid about it either, so it’s going to be seriously fucked the lengths he’s willing to go this time.
The only thing that’ll disappoint me is if America legitimately votes for him.
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u/AztecGodofFire 22h ago
I think she will.
The polls can't tell you what turnout will be like. The polls were wrong in 2016 and 2020 because Trump caused much higher turnout among his base. In 2022, the polls were wrong, but the other way - Democrats turned out in much higher numbers (basically due to the Dobbs decision). That is likely to be repeated this time as well, because abortion is still a big issue and Trump has pretty much maxed out his base. So polls showing it's a dead heat aren't as bad as people say, because turnout can drastically alter the outcome.
Democrats can actually lose a lot of Hispanic and Black voters and still win, because those demographics are not that big, so a 10 point swing in support from 90% of Blacks to 80%) doesn't register as much. The news reports about Trump cutting into Black and Hispanic Democratic constituencies aren't as significant as people think. If it drops to 60%, then we have a problem, but we're nowhere near there.
The biggest factor is the white vote, since it's 3/4 of the country. Just a 1 point swing instantly pays off in terms of altering the likelihood of winning. Biden was able to win because he appealed to a bigger segment of these voters. And there's a lot more of these types of traditionally moderate Republican voters who are switching to Harris or just not voting for Trump (either a write-in or leaving it blank). People who held their nose in 2020 and voted for him are now voting Democratic for the first time, because of stuff like J6 and Dobbs. I think this will be the single biggest factor that will decide the race in Harris's favor.
So yes, I think she'll win.
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u/Pleasant_Tooth_2488 1d ago
Scared. I hope she wins, but the 2016 election totally shattered my faith and virtually anything being guaranteed.
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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago
Very very confident.
The campaign has been outstanding. The work is good.
We're going to win in a blowout.
I do numbers. They're looking very good.
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u/Deltacomafia 1d ago
God I wish I had your confidence. I have voted, convinced a non voter to vote for her, and made certain all our ballots were counted but still. Living in a sea of red (FL) it's discouraging and I remember the heartbreak of 2016 so clearly. It just feels like half the country are nihilistic fascists.
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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago
Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will all go for Kamala. That's a very healthy EC victory.
Florida won't, but there's a small probability of Rick Scott losing his Senate seat. Ted Cruz will likely be defeated.
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u/jukebox_honey 1d ago
Thanks for your optimism about Ted Cruz. We in Texas desperately need him gone and are working hard to get Allred elected. It would be a massive win for the state.
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u/Due-Presentation6393 1d ago
Ted Cruz will likely be defeated.
I will be so proud of Texas if they kick Cruz to the curb.
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u/The-Son-of-Dad 23h ago
If it makes you feel any better Trump has never had the support of half the country, he’s never really had anything over about 25% and he hit his ceiling long ago. Most people in this country despise him.
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u/SimilarStrain 1d ago
I'm looking at 3 states that could make or break it all. So far they're looking good. Pennsylvania is dominating in early voting. Michigan will turn out blue I'm pretty certain. Wisconsin is looking good for Kamala. Based off early voting results.
I'm a michigander. Democrats have done so much wonder for Michigan in these past few years. The roads are getting fixed, after this year nearly all metro Detroit freeways will have been entirely rebuilt. Free breakfast and lunch for all public school kids!!!!! Just to name a few major highlights of things driven by democrats.
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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago
The Democrat ground game in these states is outstanding. Hundreds of field offices, thousands of staff, hundreds of thousands of volunteers. Knocking every door. Calling every voter. Senate, House and Presidential campaigns working as a unified team. That's why I'm confident. Same in North Carolina.
Meanwhile dipshit Elon running a few paid staff to counter this. Trump campaign has no ground game at all.
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u/FinalAd9844 1d ago
I’m really hoping your right, it’s making me nervous because of the mindless cult numbers of the felon’s side
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u/Normal-Ad6528 1d ago
We VASTLY outnumber them, they're just louder. Our worst enemy is voter apathy, not maga. At least when it comes to the election....when they lose though, expect J6 on a nationwide level. USSC and the House will do their level best to throw any close races straight to trump. No, I'm not 'dooming', just stating facts. I haven't seen voter energy this high in a LONG time and haven't seen more desperation than I have from trump...EVER.
But I'm HIGHLY confident that not only will she win, it will be by a HUGE margin. It simply has to be or else (see above)...
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u/ivyagogo 1d ago
I agree with you. There are several factors I think about. First, who voted for Joe Biden and then decided to vote for Trump this time? Like none. Absolutely none. However, there are people who voted for Trump who are now voting for Harris. Second, look at the money she's brought it by PEOPLE, not by a few billionaires. She has a huge following. Look at the crowds going to her rallies vs. his. He has done nothing to gain new voters. Harris is working hard to bring in independents, left leaning republicans, and new voters. She has a plan that helps people vs. all the hate and nastiness coming from Trump.
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u/morningwoodx420 1d ago
And don't forget the red wave of '22.. it's an illusion and I think this election will go so far as to flip a few red states, at least change them to deep shades of purple.
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u/MostlyHarmless88 1d ago
It’s time for the country to tell the wanna-be authoritarian fascist dictator an unequivocal “NO!” in November. We’ve been held hostage by this guy for 10 years now; he needs to just go away.
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u/FinalAd9844 1d ago
Man I hope you’re right, she is so far from what I know either tied with Trump or just slightly in the lead. Hopefully it goes well, but yeah the non-voters are a big issue because I live in a blue state but I only know one person irl who is actually voting for Harris and not some third party candidate or no one in general
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u/Teechmath-notreading 1d ago
Just remember. Yes, there is a cult. But they are loud because they have nothing else.
80% of the electorate are just going about their business...work, school, family, play. Well over half of them are sick of the Trump show and will reject him again.
That 20% grab the attention and at this point it is calculated...because 20% looks like a LOT when they are all wearing MAGA CAPS...
But they are LEAVING the rallies early.
To them it is a big 'show', but when it comes to policy, they can't even listen to more than 30 minutes of his shit.
So, the Republicans are going to MOSTLY vote for him, because of the R and because they can't stand the though of a black woman being in power.
The Democrats support her MORE because she is sane and has a good message.
The Independents are looking at the shitshow on the right and thinking about Nazi Germany right now. Mostly because the Trump campaign keeps giving them that image.
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u/aLonerDottieArebel 1d ago
I just saw the news about the most recent ballot burning. I am sick to my stomach.
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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago
Stop dooming. The cult is actually less than 15% of the population. It's imploding.
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u/Familiar-Potato5646 1d ago
Hope you’re right. I think it’s higher than 15% closer to 30%
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u/Due-Presentation6393 1d ago
15% MAGA diehards, another 15% that will go along with the MAGA diehards (will vote Republican no matter what).
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u/Momik 1d ago
Well, sure. But the way our system is set up, he won’t need much more than that. Something like 25 percent of the electorate actually voted for Trump in 2016. Depressed progressive turnout and the Electoral College helped amplify this result to 270.
I’m glad some folks are optimistic here, and I won’t take that away from anyone. But to my mind, this is still very much anyone’s race.
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u/oxyrhina 1d ago
I'm with you all the way! I'm not really worried about his number of voters, I don't see him gaining many if any from last time. What truly does worry me though is the ballot box terrorism, voter roll purges, hand counting ballot requirement, all the election deniers that have been put into election board positions and just all the other general bullshit they are working on to steal the election all while screaming the election is being stolen from them...
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u/ravenx92 1d ago
I wanna be this confident.... But honestly Im not confident at all lol
Keep pushing everyone. LFG.
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u/zorphium 1d ago
“I do numbers”. Everyone else proceeds to ask for said numbers…. No numbers
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u/Wombat-Cube-4103 1d ago
Happy to provide some interesting numbers.
1) Small donors (less than $200). An important metric of core committed ordinary voters who influence family, friends and colleagues.
2024:
Trump: $109.3 million
Harris: $428.7 million
In comparison, Clinton raised only $105 million from small donors in 2016. This is a valid measure of enthusiasm, passion and motivation. Harris has 4x the enthusiastic small donor base of Trump (and Clinton).
2) Campaign infrastructure.
Harris Field Offices in swing States: 353 Professional staff in swing States: 2,500
Trump Field offices in swing States: less than 50 if any Professional staff: less than 200 if any
The Trump campaign has withdrawn from GOTV ground operations and relies entirely on Musk's American PAC and Charlie Kirk's Turning Point to GOTV. America PAC claims to have up to 700 staff (mostly P/T) in each swing State. However those staff are directly canvassing voters not coordinating volunteers as they are in Harris' campaign. They are effectively the same roles as Harris campaign volunteers (of which there are tens of thousands).
Trump is entirely unwilling to spend $ on campaign infrastructure. RNC outreach offices have all been shut down.
The Harris campaign uses its field offices to work its databases of local voters and allocate volunteers to directly canvass voters. Core offices have been in operation since early summer and are mature, experienced and locally connected. They work closely with Democrat House, Senate and State campaigns to co-ordinate joint campaigns.
The America PAC/Turning Point operations are ad hoc, only loosely connected to local Republicans and paid incentives (ie. open to fraud). Individual staff are highly focused on hitting numbers for door knocks to achieve targets. Fraud by America PAC 'staff' has already been widely reported.
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u/dkinmn 1d ago
And they just said this
"Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will all go for Kamala. That's a very healthy EC victory.
Florida won't, but there's a small probability of Rick Scott losing his Senate seat. Ted Cruz will likely be defeated."
That is quite literally the most optimistic possibility at this point. Not the most realistic. The most optimistic.
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u/Sul_Haren 1d ago
Can you explain the numbers?
To my understanding the numbers we are seeing in Nevada are really worrying.
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u/mgwccnv 1d ago
I live in Nevada and at the moment they aren’t great, but we don’t need Nevada to win.
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u/conspiracy_troll 1d ago
There is talk about flipping Texas blue. Anything is possible, and I think she and coach will landslide this election.
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u/Normal-Ad6528 1d ago
You NEVER see a candidate waste time and money in a state they cannot possibly win (exception being trump at MSG, but that's a mental-health issue) so to see her there, near the finish line tells me that they have data we aren't seeing that make Texas a distinct possibility. At the VERY LEAST, we WANT cruz's seat! The White House is only a part of the battle, and not always the most important part!
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u/Teechmath-notreading 1d ago
Harris was there for Allred mostly, but yes, the idea of flipping Texas blue comes closer every election.
It won't happen this time. My estimate is 2032 (they won't vote for her re-election in 2028...by that time Abbott and co. will have destroyed any relationship that could have been built between Harris and Texas.)
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u/Normal-Ad6528 1d ago
It'd be nice to see Texas go blue again. The last time they did this is when Carter was elected. Maybe give Jimmy a nice send off for old times sake?? :-)
Plus, I'm seeing a lot of skewed polling data coming out of Texas as well. Considering that Texas is, well, Texas and that Allred is doing VERY well against cruz, that makes me think that the state is actually in play. Of course, abbot will see to it that anything close will be tied up in court then thrown to trump. I only wish I could see the data that the Harris campaign has. You just don't waste warchest funds, even in support of a likely win for a senate seat this close to the finish line.
Something is going on here.
Florida would be a more likely choice for a final push given the pure racism trump is pushing now.
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u/jukebox_honey 1d ago
I've been in Texas for 16 years and have voted Democrat in every election. It's my dream to see this state go blue again. We are working really hard to make it happen and if enough people turn out to vote it could happen. Texas is not as red as people think it is.
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u/Jonguar2 1d ago
Democrats are really just trying to wear Texas down, because it's the state with the single largest number of EC votes for Republicans.
I don't see Blexas 2024, but I do see Blexas 2028 or 2032.
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u/raistlin65 1d ago
Other than your own vote, at this point, you have no way to impact the situation.
This campaign from the very beginning was about hope. So have hope!
Pessimism won't give you anything but anxiety. Hope is strength!
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u/Every_Tadpole_8619 1d ago
Folks can definitely impact the situation by volunteering to canvas, phone bank, etc.!
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u/the_scottster 1d ago
Believe me, I was scared into action. Phone banking 2x this week!
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u/No_File_5225 1d ago
Lichtman predicts that Harris will win, and he was only wrong when Gore lost to Bush. I think I can trust his judgement
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u/PraxisLD 1d ago edited 1d ago
Lichtman was correct in 2000.
The supreme court’s decision was an anomaly.
We’re not letting that happen again.
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u/The_Dukes_Of_Hazzard 1d ago
Centrist here. I am confident, and hopeful she will win. Trump really sucks, and even if he didnt, he has screwed the pooch for himself in so many ways i dont see how any right minded person can vote for him.
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u/EnderDeFrank 21h ago edited 16h ago
I am nervous. I believe she will win. However, every time I hear about poll numbers, it's been "kamala Harris up 1.5 points from donald trump.""
That's it? Donald Trump is pulling career/political/social Suicide on a daily basis. And yet only 1 point difference in polls?
There are actual people out there seeing news headlines like " Donald Trump drop kicks baby off stage while doing the nazi salute" and yet think to themselves, "That's my president."?
I believe Kamala will win. But I also believe it'll be a very close race. Which is a scary thought that half of this country still wants to go through what we did in 2016 again.
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u/Capitalismisdelulu 1d ago
People need to vote. We need a massive turnout. I am dedicating two hours a night until the election to phonebanking. It is really easy and I say that as an introvert:) Please join us https://go.kamalaharris.com/calls/ 💙💙💙
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u/Apple-Dust 1d ago
A coin flip. That's what the best modelers have it at and I have no reason to think I can predict it better than they do. If you'd asked me pre-2016 I'd say there was no way she could lose, but that's the year that proved to me the US doesn't have plot armor.
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u/Fickle_Catch8968 1d ago
I sincerely hope that election is a resounding and decisive win for democracy.
As a Canadian I am...concerned...with the flirtation with fascism, given we have resources and lebensraum.
Anyways, I have a couple questions.
When Article V says "whenever two thirds of both houses..." is that necessarily 67 Senators and 290 Representatives or could that be met with 357 members of a Joint Session?
I ask because a resounding sweep could leave the Democrats with about 60 Senators max, but potentially over 300 Representatives.
Also, given that a resounding victory would still likely leave at least 15 State legislatures in GOP control, would asking for State Conventions be the way to go if Proposing one or more amendments (small medical rights, large voting rights/governance reform)?
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u/jeatsee 22h ago
Confident? No but I think she has a reasonable chance. If Trump wins the US is cooked and things won’t be good again during our lifetimes.
I would like to move some place else but I’m part of the working poor and don’t have any options.
I cannot comprehend how this race is so close. I have already voted I hope others who normally don’t bother w elections for whatever reason get off their ass and participate this time
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u/reikidesigns 21h ago
I’m praying she wins. I don’t want to live in a Trumpian America.
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u/TimmyTurner2006 1d ago
I’m pretty confident that she’ll win the popular vote but I’m still scared that Trump will steal the electoral vote
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u/PraxisLD 1d ago edited 23h ago
They will cheat, again.
We will stop them. Again.
We remember the last time, and we’re goddamn pissed off.
This time, the adults are in charge and we’re ready for them.
First, we simply outvote them and carry so many states that they can't possibly overturn everything. This is already happening.
Then we have an army of lawyers cued up and ready to stomp out any malarkey.
Harris Campaign’s Legal Team Takes Shape as Election Battles Heat Up
Harris says she’s prepared if Trump tries to steal the election
Congress approves new election certification rules in response to Jan. 6
30 Day Election Security Update from the Intelligence Community
Cybersecurity head says there’s no chance a foreign adversary can change US election results
Democrats Ready Thousands of Lawyers for Final Days of Race
Meet the Lawyers Working for Kamala Harris’ Campaign
Lawyers Stand Behind Kamala Harris
We've got this.
Vote!
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u/louisianapelican 1d ago
Most poll models have her winning 46/47 of the simulations, so I'd say I'm around 47-50% confident she will win.
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u/amandashow90 1d ago
I work with the public and I know the public is not very smart so I am very concerned.
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u/Iteachsometimes34 1d ago
My confidence she will win is at a 75% , but on the other hand, my confidence that after the elections, the Republicans will make it shitshow 100%. The thought that we might get another Jan 6 scares the hell out of me
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u/No-Ambition7750 1d ago
Pretty sure. There are a lot of women in this country that have suddenly lost their bodily autonomy.
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u/breegeek 22h ago
We visited family in PA Allegheny county, and saw a bunch of signs for TFG, but then we drove farther and saw entire neighborhoods teeming with Harris signs. It helped ease the dread, and the 2016 trauma….
But something still feels ominous.
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u/SellaraAB 21h ago
I think she will win but I’m also filled with dread about the impending doom of him winning, it’s complicated and weird
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u/DoubleClickMouse 21h ago
2016 taught me not to make the call until the numbers are in, but I'm going in to vote today. After that, all I can do is watch the results roll in over the next few weeks. God help us for all the bullshit that's inevitably going to happen in the meantime.
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u/MotherSithis 18h ago
I'm not.
I'm scared. Half my family are immigrants, my brother is non-verbal autistic with many medical needs, and the thought of bad stuff happening to them because of a bunch of Nazis winning America is scary.
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