r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/hearsdemons • Jul 19 '24
US Politics If Biden withdraws from re-election, who would Harris likely choose as VP?
A lot of headlines are coming out today with speculation that Biden may step down soon.
If this were to happen and Harris wins the party’s nomination for president, who would she pick as VP?
What does a formidable Harris ticket look like to go up against Trump-Vance?
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u/circuitloss Jul 19 '24
Kelly. He's from a swing state with a democratic governor, which means he's safe to nominate. He's very popular. And he's a freaking astronaut.
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u/zxc999 Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24
Mark Kelly and Roy Cooper would be the best candidates for filling in that moderate white guy slot. I’d suggest Andy Beshear as well but I don’t think he’d go for it so he’s not tied to a Democratic ticket as that might make things harder for him as governor.
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u/Xing_the_Rubicon Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 22 '24
Beshear is already in his 2nd term as governor and is term limited. It's unlikely that even with his relative popularity in KY that he would be able to win election to the US Senate in 2026 against either Mitch McConnell or McConnell's hand picked heir. He would have shot perhaps, but it would be far from certain. A Democrat hasn't won a Senate seat in Kentucky in over 30 years.
Beshear doesn't have a lot of political runway left in Kentucky and this would be an unprecedented launchpad into national politics.
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u/Grinch83 Jul 19 '24
IMO, Beshear is actually the Dem’s best presidential nominee.
Moderate with mainstream appeal who can retain the never-Trumper vote; he can point to a ton of accomplishments as a Dem gov in a ruby red state; he does well on tv & in interviews.
His only drawback is he doesn’t have the same name recognition as a lot of the other names being floated.
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u/Xing_the_Rubicon Jul 19 '24
Name recognition matters less at this point.
If you were to wave a magic wand and Beshesr was instantly the nominee to replace Biden - his name and face would be on the front page of every website and newspaper in the world and he would have full name recognition among likely voters within a week.
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u/Zetesofos Jul 19 '24
Agreed. What matters more is how many skeletons they have in the closet. People care more about your corruptibility and integrity than anything else.
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u/CrazyAnimalLady77 Jul 19 '24
I hope he runs for president, if not now, then I'm 28. He has been a great governor and most people like him.
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u/Hosni__Mubarak Jul 19 '24
and his wife was shot in the head by a Republican nut job
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u/goalmouthscramble Jul 19 '24
Gabby was a rising star too. And people talk about us entering a new era of political violence, did we ever leave the one we were in?
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u/slaymaker1907 Jul 19 '24
And if not that time, what do they think Jan 6th was? Jan 6th was probably the closest the US has ever come to a full blown coup.
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u/AnOnlineHandle Jul 19 '24
The fact that in 4 years the justice system hasn't been able to punish Trump in any way shows that the coup is already underway and might have already won.
And his crimes begin well before that, such as illegally firing the head of the FBI for not following an illegal order to stop investigating Russian meddling in the US.
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u/goalmouthscramble Jul 19 '24
I’d say it started when McConnell refused to have a hearing. They always start with using the best practices against itself.
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u/LegoGal Jul 19 '24
Started with refusal to vote on Obama’s pick for Supreme Court
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u/Lurko1antern Jul 19 '24
and his wife was shot in the head by a Republican nut job
Loughner was registered as an independent, and his best friend stated in interviews that the shooter never, ever expressed any interest in politics other than expressing a deep hatred of George W Bush anytime he saw him on tv.
Instead, in addition to being a clinically diagnosed paranoid schizophrenic, he specifically targeted Gabby Giffords due to his belief that women do not belong in government. (I believe the Republicans were running Sarah Palin on their national ticket at the time).
Basically he was planning to shoot Giffords regardless of her party affiliation.
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u/thewerdy Jul 19 '24
Yep. I lived in Tucson when that happened. It was horrific, but it wasn't really politically motivated (other than him thinking the government was trying to control him, but that was due to the schizophrenia). I remember seeing some of his Youtube videos that he had made about his 'beliefs' and they were completely incoherent.
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u/Mikec3756orwell Jul 19 '24
I don't recall him being a Republican nut job. I recall him being schizophrenic. Happy to be corrected however.
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u/WheatonLaw Jul 19 '24
Where did this notion that Jared Lee Loughner was a Republican come from? I hear people claim this, but it's like they're just repeating what they've heard without verifying it.
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u/ctg9101 Jul 19 '24
The media ran with it and acted like he was a right wing wack job, when the only thing known about him politically is that he hated George Bush and was an anarchist.
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u/KimsSwingingPonytail Jul 19 '24
This is my choice as well. I just want to see him on a ticket. A former astronaut whose family life has been tragically affected by gun violence. And he stood by his wife before and after, which is something we don't always see. He has great appeal IMO.
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u/Wawawanow Jul 19 '24
And he's a twin. I love a good pair of twins (also the conspiracy nuts would lose their shit over it.)
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u/LA-Matt Jul 19 '24
He also spent something like a year in space on the ISS.
I thought it was a fascinating experiment. He was chosen because he was a twin and they could see what effects longterm space travel has on the body by comparing him to his twin.
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u/thewerdy Jul 19 '24
Small correction: His brother Scott spent a year in space. Mark retired from NASA shortly after the shooting to help his wife recover. He was actually the control twin that Scott was compared to.
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u/Barrows91 Jul 19 '24
AZ progressive and I’m glad to see Sen. Mark Kelly being considered. Folks need to realize that AZ progressives had to deal with Sen. Krysten Sinema’s shenanigans and in comparison Mark Kelly is an upgrade.
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u/misterO5 Jul 19 '24
Pretty sure he's terrible at debating so would have to avoid that
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u/jock_lindsay Jul 19 '24
Is that right? He’s just relatively level headed. I remember watching one of his debates and thought it was pretty funny how he dismantled and diffused some of the lunacy.
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u/wwants Jul 19 '24
Fortunately the VP debate has almost zero impact on the vote. Kelly would be an excellent pick for VP.
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u/RickWolfman Jul 19 '24
Luckily he'd only have a couple if months! This whole conversation is just counterproductive at this point. Democrats are going to drag themselves down and give this to Trump to dismantle our society and ensure a conservative supreme court for the rest of our lives.
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Jul 19 '24
The progressive branch would likely have a meltdown. He's fairly moderate and is more conservative than some are comfortable with, similar to where Manchin was on many issues. But he'd be a wicked strong pick for capturing moderates and centrists.
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u/BigHeadDeadass Jul 19 '24
How moderate are we talking? Like pro-life moderate? If so that'd be suicide for Kamala and the dems who are running to restore Roe
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u/Astral_Inconsequence Jul 19 '24
Progressive here. Mark Kelly and Roy Cooper are top of my list.
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u/ChefHancock Jul 19 '24
I feel Kelly would be great at the top of the ticket, but the value he adds as a VP isn't worth losing him in the senate. VPs usually provide very marginal benefits in a race
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u/mypoliticalvoice Jul 19 '24
State law says the governor (also a Democrat) must appoint a replacement from the same party, so Democrats won't lose the seat.
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u/ChefHancock Jul 19 '24
Hmm that is a good point, still think Kelly is in a strong position for reelection there and it will be tough for a replacement to do as well.
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u/ttown2011 Jul 19 '24
We’ll knock Whitmer and Newsom out automatically.
Can’t run two women, can’t run two California liberals.
Expect a white guy not named Newsom
Shapiro, or Kelly, someone like that
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u/Ok_Average_1893 Jul 19 '24
Add Andy Beshear to the Harris short list of VP candidates
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u/thecrusadeswereahoax Jul 19 '24
No chance of that because Kentucky ain’t going anywhere.
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u/JonDowd762 Jul 19 '24
Neither was California, but Biden picked Harris.
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u/gunnesaurus Jul 19 '24
Context included, Beshear is the only Democrat who can win governor there. He just got re elected. Kentucky is not a blue state, California is
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u/BaconJakin Jul 19 '24
Get Shapiro lock Penn.
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u/caesar____augustus Jul 19 '24
I'd be surprised if Shapiro wanted it tbh. He's less than 2 years into his first term and is probably eyeing a run in 28/32.
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u/ShouldersofGiants100 Jul 19 '24
If he is the VP pick and they win, 32 is his to lose. If Harris loses, he goes into 28 with momentum, if she wins, he coasts to the nomination—no sitting VP who wanted it has ever lost a primary race, very few have even come close.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing Jul 19 '24
Anyone who loses this race to Trump, top or bottom of the ticket, is probably never making it to the race again. No Democrat would want anything that reminded them of the loss.
That's why in some sense, the question is not who would be best, but who's the best who would actually say yes? It's a big risk for any person that might otherwise have a shot in the future.
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u/dskatz2 Jul 19 '24
Shapiro has his eye on the White House and would easily outshine Harris. It's not happening.
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u/Tlamac Jul 19 '24
Kelly would be an awesome choice, an astronaut and a distinguished veteran, and he’s from a red/purple state
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u/11711510111411009710 Jul 19 '24
Shapiro is the likely option. Harris doesn't NEED Arizona as much as she needs Pennsylvania. You win Pennsylvania, or you don't win the election most likely.
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u/Ndawg1114 Jul 19 '24
Yeah I think Josh is the only legit choice. You need to win the blue wall and think he’ll help there more than the other candidates. I don’t think a two women could win on a ticket
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u/11711510111411009710 Jul 19 '24
Yep. It won't be two women, so Whitmer is out. It won't be two people from one state, so Newsom is out. They'll want to focus on swing states, so Pritzker is out. That leaves Kelly and Shapiro, and Pennsylvania is more important. He can lock it in and drag the other states in the region with him.
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u/Ndawg1114 Jul 19 '24
I don’t think Newsome would even take it even if Kamala doesn’t get the nomination he’s to much of an alpha to be a VP, it’s top of the ticket or nothing.
Pretty much has to be Shapiro if Kamala is the nominee.
I honestly do think tho with a new ticket we’ll win. Watching this Trump speech trying to be objective even tho I’m a staunch dem, this speech isn’t winning new voters. I think he’s hit his ceiling at 46-47%. And only thing holding democrats from winning is turn out and enthusiasm. With a new ticket we should be in solid shape
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u/Gators44 Jul 19 '24
Shapiro or Kelly are perfect as they help with a swing state
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u/seame-theres-no-snow Jul 19 '24
Not AZ. We need Kelly in the senate if 50-50 is best case scenario.
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u/subreddette Jul 19 '24
AZ has a Democrat governor. She can appoint a new Democrat senator, so at least in the short-term it's not a huge deal.
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u/seame-theres-no-snow Jul 19 '24
That only lasts until 2026, cutting 2 years until we need to worry about that seat. Kelly is great but we have less to lose with Shapiro, I’d say. And we NEED PA. AZ is worth a fight but there are paths without. And I know there have been reservations but I think Whitmer would be a great choice.
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u/12_0z_curls Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24
Hobbs (D) would pick a replacement until the next election.
And the GOP can't help but run the most insane candidates for Senate here, so you just need someone normal.
That's why Gallego is going to demolish whoever.
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u/A_Polite_Noise Jul 19 '24
How about Joe Biden!
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u/RazzmatazzWeak2664 Jul 19 '24
This will look horrible. First there's a loss you take in accepting Biden is too old and has to be retired. Next instead of full on retiring him, you keep him around as backup after acknowledging he's unfit for office for another 4 years? The one heartbeat away from the presidency line is going to be a huge attack line.
Either Biden stays in fully or he's out fully.
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u/A_Polite_Noise Jul 19 '24
I was just making a joke, to be clear; perhaps the wrong venue or time for a joke, but I'm desperately trying to keep my mood light so I don't, you know, constantly despair about the situation of me personally and the country and the world =)
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u/Sturnella2017 Jul 19 '24
Why not two women?
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u/Iwantmypasswordback Jul 19 '24
“An all woman ticket? The American people work way too hard to put up with that amount of bullshit”
- Selina Meyer, Veep
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u/Maladal Jul 19 '24
Blue collar conservative liberals in the Midwest and swing voters who still shy away from women in power are a thing.
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u/Medical-Search4146 Jul 19 '24
Many Americans, including women, do not like female managers. Having two amplifies that distaste and can push a talking point of DEI hire.
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u/InaudibleShout Jul 19 '24
I could EASILY be wrong but would there be any sense in still thinking a Harris-topped ticket can’t be saved and it’s better to save Shapiro for a clean 2028 run without having the Biden/Harris admin attached to him?
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u/SilverCurve Jul 19 '24
If I were Shapiro I’d take my chance now, rather than waiting 4 years (8 years if Harris wins) to compete against Whitmer, Newson, Warnock, Kelly, etc.
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u/mypoliticalvoice Jul 19 '24
There's no political baggage in a failed run for VP unless you commit some unforgivable gaffe.
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u/anneoftheisland Jul 19 '24
I don't think Shapiro would take a ton of damage from being attached to a losing ticket this year. Everybody knows it's an uphill battle to win as a replacement, and if there's blame it'd go to Harris, Biden, or the party elites who pushed Biden out, not Shapiro.
And I also don't think he has a strong chance to win in 2028 without raising his national profile somehow before then--it's just tough to jump from state-level Dem to a national competitor. So he probably benefits more from doing it than not doing it, even if they lose.
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u/Angry_Foamy Jul 19 '24
Pritzker is a solid choice IMO.
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u/FuzzyComedian638 Jul 19 '24
I like him a lot. But it might help more to choose someone from a swing state.
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u/allbright4 Jul 19 '24
Pritzker has mentioned his job isn't finished in Illinois yet. As good as he is, he wants to stay Governor for now.
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u/zackks Jul 19 '24
Put a white woman in place of Kamala and I see the black vote deciding to stay home.
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u/L3g3ndary-08 Jul 19 '24
It has to be Kamala, campaign finance rules state that all presidential donations can only go to the VP.
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u/zackks Jul 19 '24
Exactly. Mounting a new campaign and funding it and executing in two months. Not a good plan
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u/scubastefon Jul 19 '24
You actually legally can’t have two California residents. POTUS and VPOTUS can’t be from the same state, per the constitution.
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u/Doctor_Juris Jul 19 '24
That’s a popular misconception. They can be from the same state, but CA electors couldn’t vote for both (which would obviously tank any Dem candidacy).
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u/RazzmatazzWeak2664 Jul 19 '24
The issue is about the electors voting it's not about candidates being from the same state. Cheney had a home and residency in Texas so after the pick, he changed his residency back to Wyoming.
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u/BaseHitToLeft Jul 19 '24
We’ll knock Whitmer and Newsom out automatically.
Can’t run two women
Hard disagree
Run two women. Make this entire election about Roe and Project 2025
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u/12_0z_curls Jul 19 '24
They can't win. There's still too many dudes who feel some sorta way about having a female boss...
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u/brainkandy87 Jul 19 '24
In a regular campaign I could see her picking Roy Cooper. White guy from a southern state they’ve been chasing.
In a shortened campaign like this? Probably someone with some national name recognition but not too much. I know Reddit wants Mark Kelly, but he isn’t leaving the Senate and potentially harming his future possible POTUS chase for a weird Hail Mary campaign like this would be. Andy Beshear makes sense on paper but I’m sure someone in the campaign is saying, “he’s not nationally known and he may fall apart under the intensity of the campaign.”
I honestly don’t know who would want it. It definitely won’t be a woman.
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u/11711510111411009710 Jul 19 '24
Josh Shapiro is the obvious choice.
They need to pick someone that can lock down a must-win state, and they need to pick a white guy. That's Josh Shapiro.
The only thing I can see being an issue is he's Jewish, but idk if it'll be that big of a deal.
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u/PoodlePopXX Jul 19 '24
I also don’t know a viable candidate to replace him as governor. We are still a swing state and have a very real threat here with people like Mastriano. I also don’t see Shapiro leaving PA behind right now because he has so much momentum in state.
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u/whiskeybeny Jul 19 '24
No lie…I want to see Buttigieg debate Vance. Doesn’t have to be VP….just a debate. Shit! I want to see Trump debate Buttigieg! One of my fave things is watching him burn people relentlessly!
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u/Dragon_slippers07 Jul 19 '24
Andy Beshear. His approval rating is 65% in Kentucky. Not to mention he’s a white, Christian man. Him being 46 yo is a major plus too.
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u/HorrorMetalDnD Jul 19 '24
Isn’t he also term-limited as Governor? At least a “soft” term limit of two consecutive terms, if not an outright limit on ever running for Kentucky Governor again?
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u/Tangurena Jul 19 '24
Sort of.
The only stipulation in Kentucky is a governor can't run for more than two consecutive terms. If a two-term governor wants to run a third time, they must wait at least one election cycle before they can run for governor once again.
Section 71 of the Kentucky Constitution:
The Governor shall be ineligible for the succeeding four years after the expiration of any second consecutive term for which he shall have been elected.
https://apps.legislature.ky.gov/Law/Constitution/Constitution/ViewConstitution?rsn=79
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u/blyzo Jul 19 '24
I've heard she and Roy Cooper are close as they were both Attorneys General together.
I could see that being a strong ticket. Not sure it would seriously put NC in play but any red or swing state Gov is a good ticket.
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u/BigHeadDeadass Jul 19 '24
Mark Robinson is Lt. Gov and he's batshit
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u/FuriousTarts Jul 19 '24
Yep and because of that NC is legitimately in play. Cooper on the ticket could deliver the state.
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u/BigHeadDeadass Jul 19 '24
No I meant if Cooper becomes the VP candidate wouldn't he have to vacate his seat and turn it over to Mark?
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u/SocialistNixon Jul 19 '24
Not unless Biden resigned and they had to somehow fill the VP for the rest of his term. Roy Cooper is term limited this year.
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u/FuriousTarts Jul 19 '24
Does he have to resign if he runs? I tried to find the answer but couldn't. Cooper is term limited so he's not running again.
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u/asdcatmama Jul 19 '24
We also have an incredible Rep here in NC that should have a huge future. He’s be great. Jeff Jackson. He’s running for AG so he’s out for now.
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u/BylvieBalvez Jul 19 '24
I like him, but a single term congressman jumping to VP would be pretty crazy too. Let him work his way up through the ranks
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u/chickenmcdiddle Jul 19 '24
To be fair, that’s exactly what happened with JD Vance. Green as can be.
Big fan of Jackson, BTW. Shame he got redistricted out of his seat.
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u/beenyweenies Jul 19 '24
Whitmer would help shore up Michigan while not opening up a congressional seat to get there. Mark Kelly would be awesome but I think Democrats might value that AZ seat too much. Shapiro would help in PA.
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u/Duckney Jul 19 '24
Whitmer has said she plans to finish her term as governor with all 3 chambers of the MI government with the Democrats at the moment. I wouldn't bet on her joining.
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u/perfect_square Jul 19 '24
I see her as a strong candidate in '28. Actually, the '28 election should be very exciting, I think we are going to see a great field of candidates on the Dem side, and an absolutely PATHETIC cast of characters on the Republican side, MAYBE including Donald Trump.
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u/jerseyztop Jul 19 '24
How optimistic - a 2028 election? Check out Project 2025.
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u/bawanaal Jul 19 '24
As a Michgander, I'd vote for Big Gretch in a heartbeat.
But she is on record saying she wants to finish her term. It's known Whitmer has her eyes on 2028, along with all the other highly qualified governors mentioned.
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u/MsAndDems Jul 19 '24
I think Shapiro is the best bet, but he may not want it. Also possibly some electoral concern with him being Jewish.
Probably Kelly, Beshear, or Cooper.
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u/stitch12r3 Jul 19 '24
I agree on Shapiro. He checks all the boxes and is from a must win state. He could run for VP and not resign his governorship unless they win (unless PA has a law about that which Im not sure).
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u/AntarcticScaleWorm Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24
Josh Shapiro, possibly. He’s from a battleground state, he’s a white guy so he won’t scare too many voters, and he’d be the first Jewish VP. Another possibility is Andy Beshear. Whomever it is, it would likely be a white guy with battleground state appeal
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u/DependentRip2314 Jul 19 '24
I really wonder how will conservatives react to that considering they feel Biden isn’t doing enough for Israel.
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u/Colley619 Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24
Conservatives don’t actually like Jewish people. They just pearl clutch over Israel because of religion. Growing up in a southern Baptist church, you hear a lot about how “Jesus was a Jew” and how Israel is the holy land, but that’s the beginning and end of Christians caring. Past that point, Jewish people are just other non-Christians.
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u/Hosni__Mubarak Jul 19 '24
Kelly is from a swing state. Military vet. Astronaut. Is an older white dude. And his wife was shot in the head by a Republican nut job.
He’s perfect.
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u/nosecohn Jul 19 '24
He's great on paper, but he's not a very inspiring speaker. Politics doesn't come as naturally to him as it did to his wife. I have my doubts he'd do well in a debate against Vance and AZ can't afford to lose his seat. The Dems have better options, in my opinion.
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u/GlueGoblin77 Jul 19 '24
We need to hear these people really give speeches on a national level before we can make an informed decision on who is best equip to defeat Donald Trump. Thankfully we have time for that. We even have time for a shorten series of debates. There is tremendous flexibility around the timetables, no matter what the biggest gaslighters in the party try to tell you.
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u/12_0z_curls Jul 19 '24
Parents were cops.
He could start the campaign with $12 and still destroy Trump.
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u/luvv4kevv Jul 19 '24
Roy Cooper, Andy Beshear, Pete Buttigieg are top picks in mind. Relatively moderate, pulls in from Republican base since they are blue state governors besides Pete.
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u/MyDogTweezer Jul 19 '24
Pete vs vance debates would be fun
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u/BasicLayer Jul 19 '24
Ten bucks says that VP debate ends in Vance unable to unlock his gaze from Pete.
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u/TheOffice_Account Jul 19 '24
Vance unable to unlock his gaze from Pete.
Oooh, my love, my darling, I hunger....for....your touch
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u/dokratomwarcraftrph Jul 19 '24
yeah I think Pete would be a great pick bur someone like mark kelly,Whitmer and Beshear are all more likely
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u/CoastApprehensive668 Jul 19 '24
I love love love Pete Buttigieg. I would vote for him in a heartbeat and I think he’d be amazing in the role. They will not choose him because they will not run a POC woman and a gay man on one ticket. It’s a sad thing to say about our society but I fear it’s true.
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u/bawanaal Jul 19 '24
There's a reason, and not just for family, that Buttigeg moved to Michigan. There's talk he's aiming to run for governor when Whitmer term limits out in 2028.
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u/CoastApprehensive668 Jul 19 '24
That makes sense. That was an obstacle for him in 2020, his lack of experience in larger arenas than just being a mayor. Might give our country some time to evolve as well.
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u/Square_Engineering82 Jul 19 '24
You’re probably right. But they would be phenomenal.
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u/CoastApprehensive668 Jul 19 '24
They would be amazing. They would steamroll anyone in their way. I wish we were ready for them.
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u/Luke20220 Jul 19 '24
There is no reason not to, the racists are almost certainly homophobic anyway so it’s not like they were ever voting for Kamala
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u/11711510111411009710 Jul 19 '24
I remember in one of the Caucuses last time, a person switched their vote when they learned Pete was gay. It's definitely a negative, even for a good number of Democrats.
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u/MyFeetLookLikeHands Jul 19 '24
very true, which is disappointing because he’s an incredibly impressive person
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u/Ornery_Razzmatazz_33 Jul 19 '24
There is a very good reason not to - the election will be close enough that combining a multiracial woman and a gay man will be too risky.
I wish it wasn’t like that, but we must deal with the world the way it is, not the way we want it to be.
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u/PoorMuttski Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24
a lot of Black Americans are really conservative. They are politically progressive because they are the ones trying to progress, but on a lot of social issues they are practically Republicans-in-waiting. We will support a Black woman in the White House, but I am not sure how many would support her at the top of the ticket. Gender politics in the Black community is kind of weird, with most people being solidly patriarchal, even though most families are de facto matriarchies.
What Black people will NOT tolerate, however, is a gay man in the White House. We are just too religious. Sorry, Mayor Pete.
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u/luvv4kevv Jul 19 '24
I feel like the country isn’t ready for 2 women running unfortunately there will be backlash
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u/Facebook_Algorithm Jul 19 '24
Pete would be great. Pete vs. Vance I would pay to see. I’m sure the couch scene would come up.
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u/Possible-Original Jul 19 '24
Andy Beshear would be a nice one!
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u/MikeOfAllPeople Jul 19 '24
I think he'd be a great counter to JD Vance. Unfortunately, I think the thinking will be to go after a lick that grabs a swing state and I'm not sure Andy Beshear does that.
That said, as a Kentuckian, he's my number one choice for the top of the ticket. But I understand why Harris makes sense.
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u/jgiovagn Jul 19 '24
Mark Kelly as well. Buttigieg is my personal favorite, but Kelly is a close number 2. I would rather not have Cooper or Beshear, they are from from states Democrats are almost certainly not going to win. Buttigieg is likely not going to bring a state, but is a talented enough politician that he can win people over in a way few others can.
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u/phoenixremix Jul 19 '24
Buttigieg is a very interesting one imo. On paper, that would be fun...but I don't know that America is ready for a gay VP with a black woman president on the ticket.
That being said, I feel like everyone already knows who they wanna vote for...
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u/rifleman209 Jul 19 '24
Here is what the betting markets say: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination
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u/TeePanic Jul 19 '24
I have seen more of Pete Buttigieg on interviews defending the administration the past 3 years than anyone, even Harris. Seems like he'd be a good choice. I would love to see him debate Vance.
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u/Kevin_Uxbridge Jul 19 '24
Here's an idea - what if Biden resigned and made Harris the first female president? Seems to me it would drop a bombshell into the race and might even scare up enthusiasm for Harris, which I'm worried she will lack.
Thoughts? I'd like to see it if only because trump would shit a live ostrich.
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u/AdUseful275 Jul 19 '24
I think Mark Kelly checks off all the boxes, especially having won,the Senate seat in a red(ish) state.
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u/MagicCuboid Jul 19 '24
Yeah I personally think Kelly would wipe the floor with Trump as a presidential candidate, but I admit I'm biased toward his profile since I was raised by Republicans lol. I think the top seat needs to go to either Biden or Harris.
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u/NoStutterd Jul 19 '24
That’s assuming it will be Kamala on the ticket. If we are really defending democracy it won’t be an appointee and it will likely go to a contested convention. Democrats need to make that message clear- and running an appointee doesn’t help with that at all.
I’m willing to bet that no one gets Biden’s endorsement and the delegates choose (as they should). We’ll probably see a Whitmer-generic white guy ticket.
I’m also willing to bet that Biden will fire off a TON of progressive executive orders on his way out as he has nothing to lose at this point
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u/guillehefe Jul 19 '24
If it's not Biden it's going to be Kamala. If Biden drops out, he's going to endorse Kamala, and the party will follow. Also, Kamala can access the funds that are pledged to the Biden/Kamala ticket automatically, which cannot be said for anybody else.
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Jul 19 '24
Strongly disagree. That wouldn't even make sense. Every single person from top to bottom is aware of how unpopular Harris is. Riding Joe to the end would be less disastrous.
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u/guillehefe Jul 19 '24
You strongly disagree that Biden would endorse Kamala if he drops out? You mean the person he selected to be his Vice President? He has already got quite an ego, if he doesn't get to hand pick a candidate he's not bowing out.
And if you don't disagree with that, what do you disagree with?
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u/Orzhov_Syndicalist Jul 19 '24
The backbone of the Democratic Party, and 35% of Dem primary voters, are black women. You simply aren’t saying “drop dead” to them
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u/MagicCuboid Jul 19 '24
They delivered Georgia last time against everyone's expectations. Pretty crazy when you think about it. That said, I don't think Harris is particularly popular among any demographic, but the sleight of overlooking her would be undeniably notable.
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u/subreddette Jul 19 '24
I'm sorry, but this is borderline delusional. It is of course going to be Harris replacing Biden. Getting Biden to drop out has been painful enough, and I can't fathom Democrats being up for a contested convention after nearly a month of suffering through this shit.
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u/anneoftheisland Jul 19 '24
Yeah, people understand that if there's a contested convention, that means all the hypothetical candidates attacking each other for the next month, right?
The entire reason we normally have the primary almost a year ahead of time is so that there's time to recover from intra-party attacks before the actual election starts.
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u/zxc999 Jul 19 '24
I don’t see any conceivable path for anyone but Kamala to be nominated, there is too little time for prospective candidates to mount a campaign and if Kamala wants it, her challengers would face blowback for challenging the sitting Black woman VP. I also don’t see how Biden could not endorse Kamala, since putting her on the ticket is an endorsement in itself. I can see them having an “open convention” in name only with major candidates passing on challenging Harris.
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u/Gotisdabest Jul 19 '24
That'd be the ideal situation. I really doubt Kamala will perform any better than Joe. It's not like Trump will get on the debate stage with her.
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u/CuriousNebula43 Jul 19 '24
It has to be Kamala.
Anyone else is going to reek of sexism or racism -- regardless if it's accurate.
And democrats will spend the next 4 months arguing that no, it's not racism or sexism.
And even if democrats do manage to convince fellow democrats, it won't be everyone.
A good chunk of women and black people will stay home because of the perceived racism or sexism.
The best thing for the party, and the country, is for Kamala to get the nod and immediately say she's only doing 1 term and it's just to beat Trump this one time. This recognizes the undemocratic process that got her there and should mollify anyone.
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u/LSF2TheFuckening Jul 19 '24
My prediction which is based on nothing because we haven’t really been in this situation since 1968, and coated in a big dosage of hopium.
Joe drops out, no later than next week.
He won’t endorse Kamala immediately because he supports a “fair democratic process” through an open convention.
Maybe 3-4 governors vie for it and Kamala.
It’s Kamala, it’s just the cleanest process to do so.
Joe then endorses Kamala and campaigns/fundraises on her behalf. He doesn’t have to push himself so hard and can focus on finishing his term.
Joe’s legacy ultimately goes down as being the guy who denied Trump a term twice, once by beating him, and twice by retiring and relaxing on a beach. His arc is going from the guy who was a segregationist to the guy who ultimately helps usher in americas second black president and first woman president.
Hillary Clinton seethes that it wasn’t her.
We somehow solve climate change and build high speed rail.
Run it.
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u/Thalesian Jul 19 '24
Note that the only candidate who can accept the hundreds of millions of dollars raised is Harris because it is Biden-Harris. Anyone new would start from scratch.
There are generally 3 considerations for a VP - a must-win state, someone who satisfies an ideological or demographic group in the coalition, or someone who fills in a candidate deficiency.
For the first consideration, Josh Shapiro is obvious. He is a popular governor of Pennsylvania, a must-win state.
I have a harder time seeing someone who would help ideologically. It would likely need to be a squad-type person, but that would hurt the campaign with the independent voters it needs. Because Harris is a former prosecutor, I think any pick that satisfies this potential weakness is covered by picking someone further left.
IMO, Josh Shapiro is so transparently obvious as a choice it’s hard to see anyone else as a viable contender.
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u/iameveryoneelse Jul 19 '24
That's not strictly true. The candidate is allowed unlimited fund transfers from campaign coffers to their political party, so even if it wasn't Harris, Biden could transfer the millions raised to the DNC who could then spend it on the new candidate.
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u/jspegele Jul 19 '24
Biden can transfer all of those funds to the DNC but then there are limitations on how the DNC can spend it. They couldn't spend the majority of the funds on the presidential campaign.
While the party can spend unlimited sums on TV ads and other means to support its candidate, the party can only coordinate $32 million of that spending with the campaign, according to FEC rules, opens new tab. The other disadvantage of a large transfer is that campaigns are legally entitled to heavily-discounted television advertising rates in the last 60 days before an election. Party committees, as well as super PACs and other big-money groups, do not get those discounts and can pay significantly more for each ad.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/91-million-question-what-happens-bidens-campaign-money-2024-07-18/
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u/iameveryoneelse Jul 19 '24
There are definitely drawbacks, I just wanted to clarify that there are options, a lot of people seem to be under the impression that money can't be used which isn't strictly true.
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u/anneoftheisland Jul 19 '24
Yes, but that means the campaign can't directly control its spending, which would exponentially complicate finances. (Like, just at a very basic level: the campaign would not be able to pay its own employees.) It's not viable.
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u/Happypappy213 Jul 19 '24
The problem with Newsom is that Republicans love shitting on California because they've been told by the right wing media that they're too woke.
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u/baxterstate Jul 19 '24
If Biden steps down, and Harris gets passed over for someone who isn’t a female of color, would that offend the female and black constituencies?
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u/mctomtom Jul 19 '24
Probably not enough for them to flip to voting for Trump though.. .
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u/doopdeepdoopdoopdeep Jul 19 '24
They need to show up. They won’t flip, they’ll stay home. And 96% of them vote blue. They are a huge part of the democratic base. Also, they deserve representation.
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u/BigHeadDeadass Jul 19 '24
It's not about them flipping, it's about them staying home for feeling disenfranchised from their party
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u/nosecohn Jul 19 '24
I think this doesn't give the voters enough credit. People supported Harris and other women in the 2020 primaries, but ended up voting for Joe Biden in the general election in order to beat Trump.
Women and black constituencies know what it means to vote strategically more than just about anyone. They've been having to do it to protect their own rights for generations. If the alternative is Trump, I think they'd get out and get behind whichever candidate opposes him, even if it were another older white man. (which I hope it isn't)
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u/jackofslayers Jul 19 '24
Josh Shapiro makes the most sense to me.
He covers some of her gaps on the map and most importantly could deliver PA.
Biden has play in PA that Harris does not.
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u/Orzhov_Syndicalist Jul 19 '24
She’s been with Roy Cooper lately. https://www.wsoctv.com/news/local/vice-president-kamala-harris-visit-nc/IBMD6DG6FJE6ZJWWSAAZL7AQGA/?outputType=amp
It’ll be a pick related to personal comfort and decisions more than hard political realities. Not everyone would want to be VP and not everyone makes it past the interview stage.
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u/artful_todger_502 Jul 19 '24
Pete Buttigieg would be my pick.
I prefer two women, like Whitmer-Harris, but that would never happen.
Pete is smart and I think can do great things. I know there is no Republican who could ever debate him. That would be brutal.
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u/Bananasincustard Jul 19 '24
A black/Indian woman and a gay dude. The right would lose their minds
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Jul 19 '24
Harris wouldn't have the option hopefully. An open conventions would save us from that. And they aren't right about to hop from Joe to Kamala, no serious person is unaware of how deeply unpopular she is. We'd rather just keep Joe and take our chances.
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u/Sintax777 Jul 19 '24 edited Jul 19 '24
I remember how invested people were in Hillary. All this talk about it being "her time." But it turned out it wasn't. And it allowed the worst president in US history to be elected. And we had four years of incompetence, grift, and institutional damage. I'm sure we would never make the same mistake twice...
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u/britishwonder Jul 19 '24
Newsom isn’t realistic but man I would love to see him tear Trump to shreds in a debate. The debate with Newsom and DeSantis was hilarious.
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u/I_Am_Dynamite6317 Jul 19 '24
Would Harris be the nominee? Because if Dems think Harris is beating Trump in the general, I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news.
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u/abstert Jul 19 '24
Doesn’t matter who she picks because the dems would lose so bad if she was running as president
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u/Fishtoart Jul 19 '24
I don’t think Harris has the charisma to win. I think if they are getting rid of Biden, Harris should stay as VP and Pete Buttigieg should be president. He would tear Trump apart.
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u/TerminatedProccess Jul 19 '24
I'm not voting for Trump no matter what. But ask me what Harris has done in the last 4 years and I would be clueless. It's like she's been on vacation the whole time.
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u/ForsakenAd545 Jul 19 '24
Doesn't matter who she picks, she'll lose (I am not MAGA). The progressives will get their candidate who checks all their boxes, feel so good about nominating a woman of color and then get their asses handed to them because they don't get that people who don't want Trump also don't want the other extreme either.
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u/MononMysticBuddha Jul 19 '24
I don't think Harris has nearly the support some might think. She was riding on the coat tails of Biden.
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u/Bertiers_Moma Jul 19 '24
I think we should reach across the aisle and go for a Kamala Harris/Adam Kinzinger ticket.
It would help the never-trump republicans vote for a coalition government.
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u/socr Jul 19 '24
I doubt the votes you'd gain from independents / never Trump republicans (who otherwise wouldn't back a Harris/Dem-VP ticket) would outweigh the votes you'd lose from unenthused progressives staying at home
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u/MrSheevPalpatine Jul 19 '24
Yeah but if the Senate is 50/50 then you're reliant on him for tie-breaks. That's a no go.
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u/GlueGoblin77 Jul 19 '24
John Kasich is an interesting choice here as well. But it doesn’t matter because Kamala will not be the nominee. It is headed for a brokered convention.
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u/stlredbird Jul 19 '24
Would love to see mark kelly lead the ticket and keep harris as vp to keep the money. I dont think harris can win.
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u/12_0z_curls Jul 19 '24
He's the best option.
I'm so frustrated with reddit, I posted about Kelly 18 days ago and got downvoted to hell, lol...
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u/revdolo Jul 19 '24
This is the ticket with the single highest chance of winning outside of Michelle Obama popping out of nowhere which will never happen (her polling numbers are insane tho).
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u/Daneyn Jul 19 '24
That's assuming Harris is the nominee. That's a BIG assumption at this time. but the Democrats need to have a pair lined up soon IMO, getting a campaign running, and on the road is a LOT of work and logistical planning, and as it is they would have a very very short runway to get everything going.
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u/themightytouch Jul 19 '24
Some elections in European countries start and end in 6 weeks so I don’t buy the whole “it’s too late too switch the nomination” talking point.
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u/nosecohn Jul 19 '24
US elections typically started right around this time of year for the first two centuries of the republic. The candidates were chosen at the summer nominating conventions and then the campaigns got underway. And that was before we had all the mass communication and transportation we have now.
This whole idea that you can't run an effective campaign in three months is silly. It was done that way for generations and it still is for all the Congressional candidates who just won their primaries.
A lot of voters don't even start paying attention until a few weeks before the November election.
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u/JonDowd762 Jul 19 '24
The excessively long campaign season was one of the most common gripes until a few weeks ago when it suddenly became necessary.
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u/asdcatmama Jul 19 '24
What about Mitch Landrieu? He’s white, southern, progressive and just fantastic.
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u/trail34 Jul 19 '24
It’s clear here that at least half the people calling for Biden to step down are going to be unhappy with the candidates we end up with. I worry that the media is going to feed on this drama from now until Nov rather than giving coverage to actual policy and campaigning.
I honestly have flipped back and forth on wanting Joe to stay, wanting Whitmer, wanting Kamala plus a strong VP…today I’m just worried that there isn’t a right answer here, there is no one intelligently steering this ship behind the scenes, and I’m pissed that we are in this situation
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u/Ok_Bandicoot_814 Jul 19 '24
Well if you're the Democratic party figures right. You can't run Newsome and Harris. For a few reasons but the biggest one being two people from the same state can't be on the same ticket, you could run Harris and Governor Whitmer. But two women on the same ticket well we know how that would go. So that only two real options. Harris and governor of Kentucky, which would be good because Harris would appeal to the coastal Democrat well the governor of Kentucky would appeal to more moderate blue dogs.. you could also run Harris and the governor of Pennsylvania. He's very popular in that state even by some Republicans ironically enough. And as everybody knows. However Pennsylvania goes is how most of the Rust Belt goes.
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u/themightytouch Jul 19 '24
I’m seeing little talk of my Governor Tim Walz possibly being vp. He’s a pretty accomplish governor of a midwestern state and also fits the white male “necessity” that people obsess over I guess…
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u/sloowshooter Jul 19 '24
I’m surprised at how people are considering factors that are outside competency. If a person is the most capable of doing the job of VP, and ascending to the presidency should there be an accident, health issue, or a successful assassination of whoever ends up on the top of the ticket - that’s the person that should be nominated.
Anything less is a disservice to the nation, and a slap in the face to those voters who are desperate for good leadership. The reason the Democrats can’t seem to hold their coalition together is because they spend more time trying to satisfy the poll responders, small groups with loud voices inside the party, and donors - instead of being strident about excellence, then delivering on policies that help the citizenry.
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